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. . .it's basically a guess between OSU and UM.

First year coaches in the past have at times struggled, but in part because they took over a program headed down.  Day does know what it's like to be HC for a day, or three.

I don't see OSU being worse than 10-2, same for UM. 

This is about where I am at.  

I have no confidence in any offensive coaching staff that includes Jim Bolman.  That and MSU's difficult schedule (tOSU, M, UW and NU all on the road) will eliminate the Spartans.  

Penn State is a tougher call.  I don't *THINK* that they can "reload" and they couldn't beat tOSU, M, or MSU last year so I just don't see them winning the B1G-E this year.  

Maryland might be good enough to pull off an upset here or there but they just don't yet have the talent and depth to be a contender week-in and week-out.  

Indiana might improve but they were sub .500 last year so "improvement" means getting to a bowl, not winning the B1G-E.  

Rutgers is Rutgers.  

That leaves tOSU and M.  I confidently predict that one of them will clinch before THE GAME or, more likely, that THE GAME will be for a spot in the B1GCG.  

As to THE GAME, I understand Temp430's hesitation.  I felt the same way during the Cooper years.  That said, Day is a new coach, this could be a new era, and TG is in Ann Arbor.  Who knows?  

I'd agree that both are likely to be 10-1 or 11-0 going into TG.  It's always possible for key injuries to lead to a collapse of sorts.

The West is more interesting of course, with Nebraska possibly making a run. 

Nebraska fascinates me, see B1G-W Race thread.  

IMHO, their schedule means that there is only a very slight difference between 7-2 and 2-7.  If they ARE a contender then getting their best four opponents at home will prop them up but if they aren't then HFA will be wasted in games they can't win anyway against the likes of tOSU, IA, UW, and NU while they could struggle in their road games.  

If Urban didn't win it by guiding a 6-7 Tressel ball team to an undefeated season, then Day sure as Hell isn't going to win it by guiding the defending Big Ten Champions to an 11-1 finish.

So I said you’d need EVERYTHING to break. You need an 8-4 west champ, and one from last year’s top 3. You need no bottom of the East teams to get OK.

But I didn’t factor in the OSU schedule. There’s no loss they could really take. Maybe Wisconsin, but Wisconsin would have to be good enough to win, but not good enough to get Chryst the award. A loss to PSU is a little late, and loss to Michigan is disqualifying. I was thinking they had a good non-conf to drop, but Cincinnati is the best there.

That 2012 team was a good option, but got jumped by PSU winning 8 after JoePa, starting McGloin, tying for 3rd in the conference after a bunch of transfers. If OSU is to win it, it needs the rest of the field cleared out. (2014 would’ve been good, but the early stink hadn’t fully worn off until after they gave out the award. That winner was one of the weakest ever)

It is what it is as a program where winning 71 percent of your games earns you a dunce cap. You never get to surprise, and a flawed award given to surprises is not within your grasp.

This!

A few Buckeye fans on here (most Brutus) like to complain about it and on the Ohio State boards it is a frequent complaint that the Ohio State HC never wins the COTY award but this statement sums up the situation.  As a practical matter it is an award for the coach of the team that most exceeds expectations and at Ohio State the low for expectations is roughly 10-2.  That means that even a 13-0 undefeated league championship season only slightly exceeds expectations and there is almost always going to be some cellar-dweller that gets hot and goes 8-4.  Going 8-4 when you are expected to go 4-8 is a bigger margin than going 13-0 when you are expected to go 10-2 so the Ohio State coach is effectively ineligible for the time being.  

I for one hope that the Ohio State coach remains effectively ineligible forever!

This!

A few Buckeye fans on here (most Brutus) like to complain about it and on the Ohio State boards it is a frequent complaint that the Ohio State HC never wins the COTY award but this statement sums up the situation.  As a practical matter it is an award for the coach of the team that most exceeds expectations and at Ohio State the low for expectations is roughly 10-2.  That means that even a 13-0 undefeated league championship season only slightly exceeds expectations and there is almost always going to be some cellar-dweller that gets hot and goes 8-4.  Going 8-4 when you are expected to go 4-8 is a bigger margin than going 13-0 when you are expected to go 10-2 so the Ohio State coach is effectively ineligible for the time being. 

I for one hope that the Ohio State coach remains effectively ineligible forever!

I think it’s like this:
every 8 or so years, OSU produces a team that would be eligible.

Every 6 or so years, the field is soft enough an eligible OSU team could win.

We’ve not lined those up. The closest was 2014. OSU was undone by Michigan being bad and playing with it’s food against IU and Minnesota.

Ed Zachery

Don't care if Frost ever wins that award

Osborne rarely was honored and I'm fine with that

I don't think an Ohio State or Clemson or Alabama puts much stock in the CotY award.  It does seem like something for middle of the pack.