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Topic: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #42 on: August 08, 2018, 01:52:47 PM »
Think about how much helmetosity influences those rankings with teams like LSU and Auburn.  Polled folks are "comfortable" with their being up there.  If there is some doubt, they get dropped to 24th, when perhaps they should be 40th replaced by Middle Kentucky State College.
Are ... are either of those teams too high right now? Or is this a more general thing?

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #43 on: August 08, 2018, 02:37:49 PM »
Yeah, I feel like Aurburn is well placed, perhaps more likely to be underrated than overrated. And LSU is sort of in the meh-could-be-decent zone I'd expect them to be.

ELA

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #44 on: August 08, 2018, 02:50:03 PM »
Are ... are either of those teams too high right now? Or is this a more general thing?
I think LSU is in major trouble.  I had them #41 in my countdown.
On the other hand, I think Auburn will still be really good, but people around here seem to be down on them, based on the feedback I got about having them #4.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #45 on: August 08, 2018, 02:55:33 PM »
LSU is tough to peg right now for understandable reasons.  I do suspect some are ranking it based on the schedule they see and not how good they think the team is likely to be.  Definite questions on offense.  What else is new.  The defense should be somewhere between "really good" and "amazing."  I don't know how much actual analysis people are doing on personnel and how much is "Didn't they just lose to Troy?"  (Which is understandable, when that happens, you earn whatever disrespect you feel you're garnering.)  

My biggest question is can Orgeron be a good (great?) gameday coach?  He does a lot of good things in prep and other areas, but he often feels Meh as far as a sideline presence to correct real-time problems.  His HC record is still a suspicious entity at this point.  

I'm optimistic they'll beat the 7-5 many are giving them, despite the schedule.  They'll be markedly better on both LOS this year, it's a team that just went 9-4, narrowly missed 11-2, achieved a 6-2 conference record--best since 2012, the end of the "Elite Miles" years--and LSU getting to at least 8 wins has been the most reliable thing in the SEC this millennium.  Their preseason ranking is fair imo.  Lot of questions to answer, lots of room for disappointment, probably a year away, but should be a handful for anybody they play.  

Auburn is probably fair enough as well.  Malzahn is a good coach and they recruit well.  

rolltidefan

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #46 on: August 22, 2018, 09:27:14 AM »
and ap finally joined in on the fun.

AP
link

1Alabama421,505
2Clemson181,476
3Georgia1,350
4Wisconsin11,271
5Ohio State1,256
6Washington1,215
7Oklahoma1,173
8Miami (FL)1,027
9Auburn1,013
10Penn State1,012
11Michigan State877
12Notre Dame804
13Stanford778
14Michigan773
15USC543
16TCU533
17West Virginia511
18Mississippi State450
19Florida State384
20Virginia Tech351
21UCF312
22Boise State292
23Texas216
24Oregon148
25LSU106

Others receiving votes: South Carolina 96, Florida 68, Utah 60, Oklahoma St. 51, FAU 38, Arizona 28, NC State 22, Texas A&M 21, Boston College 18, Northwestern 13, Kansas St. 10, Iowa St. 8, Houston 6, Memphis 3, Troy 2, Iowa 2, Kentucky 1, Arkansas St. 1, Fresno St. 1.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #47 on: August 22, 2018, 10:24:59 AM »
The top ten seems to be virtually the same in every ranking.  I can recall that CFN would throw in some oddities each year to attract attention.  None of these vary much from a composite poll of them all until you get further down, and even then ...

Have I ever mentioned how these don't matter? 

They are entertaining of course and they do provide a notion about how tough certain opponents should be.

I rewatched the Bama-FSU game in part the other night and was impressed with how FSU was competitive.

It's THAT time of year.  The wife keeps asking me when it all starts.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #48 on: August 22, 2018, 10:43:42 AM »
Another way to view rankings is something like this:

1-5 Teams coming of a very good year with few apparent holes
5-10 Teams coming of a good year that have some question marks but not many and have helmets
10-20 Teams with quite a few question marks but could be very good if something goes their way
20-30 Teams we're really guessing about but have some shot at being decent
40 and below - mostly teams that are coming off a mediocre to bad year and nothing appears to have changed.

I wonder what the highest ranking achieved by a 40 and below team has been over the past decade.

UGA last year started somewhere 15 or so, and I stated that IF their OL improved they could be very good.  The OL improved a LOT and was a strength of the team and despite losing their starting QB they excelled.  I look at the OL quality and experience coupled with having a returning QB with experience as critical factors.  Yes, they will need a credible defense, but few teams without a good OL are going to end up top ten.


ELA

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #49 on: August 22, 2018, 12:39:31 PM »
I wonder what the highest ranking achieved by a 40 and below team has been over the past decade.
40 in the AP Poll?
By year the highest ranked team in the final AP Poll that was outside the top 40 in the preseason AP Poll (plus highest P5/BCS school if highest is Group of 5):
2017 - Central Florida (#6) / Michigan State (#15)
2016 - Penn State (#7)
2015 - Houston (#8) / Iowa (#9)
2014 - Georgia Tech (#8)
2013 - Auburn (#2)
2012 - Utah State (#16) / Northwestern (#17)
2011 - Baylor (#13)
2010 - Nevada (#11) / Oklahoma State (#13)
2009 - Wisconsin (#16)
2008 - TCU (#7) / Ole Miss (#14)
So the answer is 2013 Auburn, who had no votes coming off a 3-9 season that saw them go winless in SEC play on cost Gene Chizek his job, and replaced with Malzahn.  Auburn didn't show up in the poll until October 13, and probably didn't deserve it at that point at 5-1 with 4 cupcake wins and a home win over #24 Ole Miss, along with a 2 touchdown loss at LSU.  They won on the road at #7 Texas A&M to shoot up to #11, then beat 3 straight unranked teams, but that included road wins at Arkansas and Tennessee to move up to #7.  They closed with home wins over #25 Georgia and #1 Alabama, and an SEC Championship Game win over #5 Missouri.  When Michigan State upset #2 Ohio State, that opened the door for Auburn to slide up to #2 and play for a national title.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #50 on: August 22, 2018, 02:45:27 PM »
That Auburn team was the closest thing we've had to the veer or triple option teams of yesteryear.  And like '98 Tennessee, they had a miracle finish to a game they had no business winning (UGA).  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #51 on: August 22, 2018, 03:26:27 PM »
Good stuff around here.  Some of youse should get paid for it.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #52 on: August 22, 2018, 03:28:01 PM »
I'm surprised at how many out of the top 40 end up ranked, about one a year.

I guess going from 40 to 25 isn't that much really.  I think teams ranked after about 20th preseason reflect more guesswork and helmet than analysis.


rolltidefan

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #53 on: August 22, 2018, 04:10:00 PM »
I'm surprised at how many out of the top 40 end up ranked, about one a year.

I guess going from 40 to 25 isn't that much really.  I think teams ranked after about 20th preseason reflect more guesswork and helmet than analysis.


unless i read that wrong, that's only the top ranked team from 40+. i'd bet at least 3-4 each year on average are ranked. 40-60 isn't that far back, and can be the difference of 2 games.
people expecting arkansas to go 7-5, which would put them in that 40-60 range, but say they upset lsu and aTm and finish 9-3, that's a top25 record for them likely. and that's not that big of a swing (both home games).
i'd bet there's at least 3-4 of those out there each year.

ELA

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #54 on: August 22, 2018, 04:16:48 PM »
unless i read that wrong, that's only the top ranked team from 40+. i'd bet at least 3-4 each year on average are ranked. 40-60 isn't that far back, and can be the difference of 2 games.
people expecting arkansas to go 7-5, which would put them in that 40-60 range, but say they upset lsu and aTm and finish 9-3, that's a top25 record for them likely. and that's not that big of a swing (both home games).
i'd bet there's at least 3-4 of those out there each year.
Correct, the original question was just about the highest ranked.  I didn't list out how many there were each year, nor do I plan to.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2018 preseason polls (ap, coaches, si, cbs)
« Reply #55 on: August 22, 2018, 05:04:15 PM »
Yeah good point, and no, don't bother with the additional effort.

Going from sub-40 to top ten would be the relevant question, not top 25 for reasons noted.

 

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