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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2310 on: March 18, 2019, 08:59:13 AM »
I think the committee completed its bracket at halftime of the B1GCCG, yesterday.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2311 on: March 18, 2019, 09:55:16 AM »
The whole evaluating teams based on who is on the court needs to go, because they can't even figure it out.  Just rate a team based on its actual resume.  They seemed to disregard everything that Duke did without Zion...but then also credit UNC for beating Duke twice without him.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2312 on: March 18, 2019, 10:04:35 AM »
Michigan smoked UNC. The latter also lost to Kentucky OOC. They got way too much love, but that's an NCAA thing, period, top-to-bottom with that school. They shouldn't even be eligible right now, but that's another story.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2313 on: March 18, 2019, 11:19:59 AM »
I dont think MSU has a very hard draw to get to the E8. Minny/Ville in round two doesnt seem hard. We lost on the road to Ville with McQuaid out, it was the only game all year Cash fouled out of, and Goins/Henry were not near the players then that they are now.
Eh, Louisville is #17 in KenPom, ahead of 8 teams that earned 3, 4, 5 or 6 seeds.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2314 on: March 18, 2019, 11:22:45 AM »
Per BPI

Meanwhile, North Carolina’s chances to reach the Final Four increased 11 percent to 41 percent after the bracket reveal and Gonzaga’s chances increased 13 percent to 65 percent. These increases are largely explained by the fact that neither team has Michigan State in its region.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2315 on: March 18, 2019, 11:53:55 AM »
From the Sporting News

March Madness 2019: Selection committee should be embarrassed for mishandling Michigan State

CHICAGO — If you have a computer and understand how to navigate to the MapQuest website — which requires simply for you to type "MapQuest" into a search engine and click on it — you have access to the same sort of tool the NCAA Tournament selection committee employed to screw Michigan State out of what it spent four months of basketball earning.

It was a process so grueling two of the Spartans' most important players wore walking boots as they joined the assembly Sunday afternoon to accept the Big Ten Tournament championship trophy, Kyle Ahrens, supporting himself on crutches, and Joshua Langford, rolling along on a knee scooter.

They were proud when they were done beating Michigan for the third time, delighted and smiling and dancing on the floor of the United Center. No MSU team had ever slapped a three-game sweep on its in-state rival.

Inside of a half-hour, the Spartans discovered it hadn't been worth the bother.

The selection committee for the NCAA Tournament determined the win over the Wolverines slid MSU past Kentucky and into the sixth position on the seed list, making the Spartans the second-strongest No. 2 seed behind Tennessee. That meant they would be placed in their "natural and closest region possible," according to committee chair Bernard Muir. Well, Michigan State has been in the Midwest for as long as it has been in Michigan, which is in the Midwest.

But the Spartans will be playing in the East Region.

How could this possibly be?

Head on over to MapQuest, where you will discover it is 591 miles from East Lansing to Washington D.C., as opposed to 711 miles from East Lansing to Kansas City.

That's right. The committee members decided the Spartans would rather travel 120 fewer miles and be bracketed to face the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Duke, and Sporting News Player of the Year Zion Williamson.

"We don't look at the matchups, necessarily," Muir said after the bracket had been revealed. "It's more trying to assign teams to their natural and closest regions."

I'm sorry. I was under the impression this was an athletic competition. I'd been told the committee was spending six days in New York in order to select the most deserving teams to add to the automatic qualifiers and then to order them 1-68.

What is the purpose of placing them in order if it's not to contrive the fairest and most equitable competition possible?

How can the members of the men's basketball committee not be embarrassed at this preposterous lack of logic?

If the tournament is not constructed so as the best teams can be legitimately close to home — the sort of on-the-fly, play-on-your-homecourt operation the NIT runs until the semifinalists head to New York and Madison Square Garden — what possible benefit are they expected to derive from being slightly closer to home? How could anyone believe there is value inherent in traveling on a plane for 35 fewer minutes?

Duke is not an impenetrable team, but they are the committee’s No. 1 overall team for a reason. That reason is Williamson, who has been on the floor for only two Duke defeats. With him, they won the ACC Tournament by defeating fellow No. 1 seed North Carolina and No. 4 West seed Florida State.

You can be certain every coach entering the tournament, especially those believing they had a serious chance at the Final Four, began Sunday hoping to be placed in one of the three regions Williamson would not occupy. Michigan State earned the right to be elsewhere by ranking as not the least of the No. 2 seeds, or the second-least, but as the second-best. The logical place to put the Spartans at that point was — can you imagine? — the Midwest.

North Carolina is no bargain. The Tar Heels are tremendous. But they were the third of the No. 1 seeds for a reason, also. They lost games to half the teams on the top two lines. That certainly seems more inviting than an evening with Zion and his biceps.

The most amazing element of Sunday's bracket reveal as it related to the Spartans is the Michigan team they beat for the Big Ten title — the team they beat last weekend for a share of the regular-season title and two weeks before that to set up all of this — will head to the West Region for a possible matchup with the No. 1 seed the committee respected least, the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Michigan won by losing. (And losing. And losing again.)

For all the griping about mid-major teams not getting a fair shot for at-large bids, VCU made it in easily, and Belmont will play in the First Four. Those advancing the misguided notion the "little guy" gets a raw deal are missing the greatest flaw in the selection process. It has been the same since I first visited Indianapolis for the mock selection process roughly a decade ago and saw how all this is done. The problem is the fixation with the minutiae of geography. This might be the most outrageous application of that absurdity.

Michigan State's chances of reaching the Final Four decreased immeasurably because of the distance of 120 miles. If only the MSU campus had been in Muskegon. The Spartans might have gotten the draw they earned.

RestingB!tchFace

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2316 on: March 18, 2019, 12:04:48 PM »
Well, yeah. That would have been better. Clearly the NET rankings did not matter to the committee, seeing that KSU got the 4 seed with a 24 rank, while UW is 17.

Iowa got the hose job too, having to play Cincy on Ohio soil. There are quite a few head-scratchers in this one.
The NET rankings have some pretty clear issues that the NCAA will need to iron out.  NC State for example is a major outlier.  And I'm not terribly pleased with how the NET rankings viewed the Gophers.  Rated #61 prior to the Big Ten Tournament.  Both Indiana and Penn State were viewed much more favorably despite worse records.  Efficiency is weighted far to heavy and SOS doesn't seem to matter much.....which is why NC State was so highly rated despite having the worst strength of schedule in division 1 basketball.  If the season would have ended prior to the Big Ten Tournament.....and NET was the primary tool used for the selection committee.....the Gophers would have been left out.  And who even knows what their NET ranking is now.

And I don't exactly love the draw.  Louisville will be a good test.....but I'm with MSU fans......they should have gotten a #1 seed.  It sucks that if the Gophers win their first round matchup.....they'll have to play MSU.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2317 on: March 18, 2019, 12:26:06 PM »
And I don't exactly love the draw.  Louisville will be a good test.....but I'm with MSU fans......they should have gotten a #1 seed.  It sucks that if the Gophers win their first round matchup.....they'll have to play MSU.
I don't mind MSU being a 2 seed.  But winding up in the bracket with the #1 overall seed makes no sense.  If MSU was a #2 in any other bracket I'd be plenty ok with it.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2318 on: March 18, 2019, 12:31:23 PM »
Weird selection. I can't believe that MSU will have to potentially go through Minnesota and Maryland to even get to Duke. Minnesota and Maryland, despite their records, are two of the toughest matchups in the B1G because they each have two legit bigs that play together. That means that one of MSU's biggest advantages [Ward+Goins playing together] is somewhat negated.

For Purdue, I can't complain much. Old Dominion has very little offense and shouldn't give us much trouble. Then it's Villanova or St Mary's. Decent opponents, but not terrifying. Tennessee could be a shootout game, and heck if Purdue makes the Sweet Sixteen with this roster, I'm pretty happy with that. Anything else is gravy, but I think if we're shooting well, we can hang with Tennessee, and if they've gone cold earlier in the tourney, we might be facing Cincinnati or Iowa.

If we make the Elite Eight? I'm not sure Virginia will still be around. Their style of play makes them potential upset territory if they run into a hot-shooting team, just as the Purdue and Wisconsin teams of old. They're 353rd in tempo according to KenPom. So despite the amazing defense, if a team is hitting shots (like Minnesota did against Purdue in the BTT), they're beatable. 

It's certainly not an easy bracket--none of them are [except maybe the West]. But I think Purdue as a 3 has a MUCH easier road than MSU as a 2.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2319 on: March 18, 2019, 12:37:16 PM »
Standard Performance by seed, what to expect from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament:

  • We have two #2 seeds (MSU, M).  Based on past performance of #2 seeds, they each have a 92.12% chance to win the opening 2/15 game and a 62.5% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  Cumulatively, these two should get 1.88 R32 berths and 1.25 S16 berths.  
  • We have one #3 seed (PU).  Based on past performance of #3 seeds, they have an 84.56% chance to win the opening 3/14 game and a 51.47% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  
  • We have one #5 seed (UW).  Based on past performance of #5 seeds, they have a 65.44% chance to win the opening 5/12 game and a 33.82% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  
  • We have one #6 seed (UMD).  Based on past performance of #6 seeds, they have a 62.5% chance to win the opening 6/11 game and a 30.88% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  
  • We have two #10 seeds (MN, IA).  Based on past performance of #10 seeds, they each have a 38.24% chance to pull the upset in the 7/10 game and a 16.91% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  Cumulatively, these two should get 0.76 R32 berths and 0.34 S16 berths.  
  • We have one #11 seed (tOSU).  Based on past performance of #11 seeds, they have a 37.5% chance to pull the upset in the 6/11 game and a 16.18% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  

As we watch the first weekend, here is what our eight teams cumulatively should produce:
  • 5.14 teams should make it to the round of 32.  Thus, if we have five alive as of Friday night that is about average.  Six is better than average, four is worse than average.  Anything more than six is REALLY good and anything less than four is REALLY bad.  
  • 2.91 teams should make it to the Sweet Sixteen.  Thus, if we have three teams in the Sweet Sixteen that is slightly better than average.  If we have two, that is below average.  One or less would be REALLY bad.  Four or more would be REALLY good.  

I don't think anyone other than possibly @bwarbiany will care, but here is the math behind all of that:
SeedR64R32
199.26%85.29%
294.12%62.50%
384.56%51.47%
479.41%47.06%
565.44%33.82%
662.50%30.88%
761.76%19.85%
850.00%9.56%
950.00%5.15%
1038.24%16.91%
1137.50%16.18%
1234.56%14.71%
1320.59%4.41%
1415.44%1.47%
155.88%0.74%
160.74%0.00%
 
SeedTeam1Team2TeamsR32 %S16 %R32 TeamsS16 Teams
2MSUM294.12%62.50%1.8823531.25
3PUn/a184.56%51.47%0.8455880.514706
5UWn/a165.44%33.82%0.6544120.338235
6UMDn/a162.50%30.88%0.6250.308824
10MNIA238.24%16.91%0.7647060.338235
11tOSUn/a137.50%16.18%0.3750.161765
Total-----5.1470592.911765

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2320 on: March 18, 2019, 12:57:48 PM »
Thinking of it another way, based on past performance one of our top-5 teams should lose their first round game and one of our bottom-3 teams should win their first round game.  

On average our eight teams, based on their seeds, should get a cumulative total of about five spots in the round of 32.  However, it isn't as simple as saying that the top-5 should win and the bottom three should lose.  Nope, on average, one of our highly seeded teams should lose and one of our lower seeds should win.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2321 on: March 18, 2019, 01:19:13 PM »
Yep. For example, there's only a 40.9% likelihood of BOTH UW and MD making the round of 32. For the top 5 seeds to go 5-0 in the R64 is only 30.6% likely. 

While at the same time the likelihood that the bottom three seeds will go 0-3 is only 23.8%, or inverted, there is a 76.2% chance that one or more teams in that bottom three will win a game. 

Kris60

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2322 on: March 18, 2019, 01:32:58 PM »
From the Sporting News

March Madness 2019: Selection committee should be embarrassed for mishandling Michigan State

CHICAGO — If you have a computer and understand how to navigate to the MapQuest website — which requires simply for you to type "MapQuest" into a search engine and click on it — you have access to the same sort of tool the NCAA Tournament selection committee employed to screw Michigan State out of what it spent four months of basketball earning.

It was a process so grueling two of the Spartans' most important players wore walking boots as they joined the assembly Sunday afternoon to accept the Big Ten Tournament championship trophy, Kyle Ahrens, supporting himself on crutches, and Joshua Langford, rolling along on a knee scooter.

They were proud when they were done beating Michigan for the third time, delighted and smiling and dancing on the floor of the United Center. No MSU team had ever slapped a three-game sweep on its in-state rival.

Inside of a half-hour, the Spartans discovered it hadn't been worth the bother.

The selection committee for the NCAA Tournament determined the win over the Wolverines slid MSU past Kentucky and into the sixth position on the seed list, making the Spartans the second-strongest No. 2 seed behind Tennessee. That meant they would be placed in their "natural and closest region possible," according to committee chair Bernard Muir. Well, Michigan State has been in the Midwest for as long as it has been in Michigan, which is in the Midwest.

But the Spartans will be playing in the East Region.

How could this possibly be?

Head on over to MapQuest, where you will discover it is 591 miles from East Lansing to Washington D.C., as opposed to 711 miles from East Lansing to Kansas City.

That's right. The committee members decided the Spartans would rather travel 120 fewer miles and be bracketed to face the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Duke, and Sporting News Player of the Year Zion Williamson.

"We don't look at the matchups, necessarily," Muir said after the bracket had been revealed. "It's more trying to assign teams to their natural and closest regions."

I'm sorry. I was under the impression this was an athletic competition. I'd been told the committee was spending six days in New York in order to select the most deserving teams to add to the automatic qualifiers and then to order them 1-68.

What is the purpose of placing them in order if it's not to contrive the fairest and most equitable competition possible?

How can the members of the men's basketball committee not be embarrassed at this preposterous lack of logic?

If the tournament is not constructed so as the best teams can be legitimately close to home — the sort of on-the-fly, play-on-your-homecourt operation the NIT runs until the semifinalists head to New York and Madison Square Garden — what possible benefit are they expected to derive from being slightly closer to home? How could anyone believe there is value inherent in traveling on a plane for 35 fewer minutes?

Duke is not an impenetrable team, but they are the committee’s No. 1 overall team for a reason. That reason is Williamson, who has been on the floor for only two Duke defeats. With him, they won the ACC Tournament by defeating fellow No. 1 seed North Carolina and No. 4 West seed Florida State.

You can be certain every coach entering the tournament, especially those believing they had a serious chance at the Final Four, began Sunday hoping to be placed in one of the three regions Williamson would not occupy. Michigan State earned the right to be elsewhere by ranking as not the least of the No. 2 seeds, or the second-least, but as the second-best. The logical place to put the Spartans at that point was — can you imagine? — the Midwest.

North Carolina is no bargain. The Tar Heels are tremendous. But they were the third of the No. 1 seeds for a reason, also. They lost games to half the teams on the top two lines. That certainly seems more inviting than an evening with Zion and his biceps.

The most amazing element of Sunday's bracket reveal as it related to the Spartans is the Michigan team they beat for the Big Ten title — the team they beat last weekend for a share of the regular-season title and two weeks before that to set up all of this — will head to the West Region for a possible matchup with the No. 1 seed the committee respected least, the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Michigan won by losing. (And losing. And losing again.)

For all the griping about mid-major teams not getting a fair shot for at-large bids, VCU made it in easily, and Belmont will play in the First Four. Those advancing the misguided notion the "little guy" gets a raw deal are missing the greatest flaw in the selection process. It has been the same since I first visited Indianapolis for the mock selection process roughly a decade ago and saw how all this is done. The problem is the fixation with the minutiae of geography. This might be the most outrageous application of that absurdity.

Michigan State's chances of reaching the Final Four decreased immeasurably because of the distance of 120 miles. If only the MSU campus had been in Muskegon. The Spartans might have gotten the draw they earned.
I get all of that.  I really do.  But I also get what the Committee Chair was saying too.  When they are bracketing these teams their job isn’t really to assume who is going to win what and have to face each other.  Duke and Michigan St each have to win 3 games to get to each other.  There’s a pretty decent chance that is going to happen but there’s a pretty decent chance it won’t happen, too.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2323 on: March 18, 2019, 01:38:11 PM »
Isn't that the exact point of the S curve?  Now if a bracket implodes and you get lucky that way, that's different.

But in fairness, I do have MSU losing to Maryland in the Sweet 16 anyway, so all for naught.

 

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