Michigan is definitely playing to avoid a 3 seed and at least get back to a 2 seed now, and I think they'd get a 1 seed if they win it (Gonzaga and probably Virginia will be 1 seeds but the others are open)..... Same goes for Sparty and to a lesser extent Purdue, whose non-con losses hold them back.
If Matthews can play major minutes if needed (even if he's the 6th man behind Livers and Brazdeikis, that's still good), I like Michigan's chances. Obviously, Simpson and Teske have been part of two BTT-winning teams despite playing 4 games in 4 days including the first one after the plane crash. The other main players aside from Brazdeikis were on the team last year, too..... The matchups appear favorable, too, with Sparty and Wisconsin on the other side (yes, Iowa beat Michigan, too, but that was in Iowa City when Castleton finally got his first real playing time backing up Teske, who had 2 early fouls that game, and I'm not sure they'll even win on Thursday with the way they're playing of late). Michigan still matches up well with Purdue, too, even considering their improvement since December.