2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

IMHO, tonight's Minnesota at Northwestern game is a "must win" for the Gophers.  It isn't mathematically because, in theory, the Gophers could lose to Northwestern then turn around and beat Purdue at home and Maryland on the road to finish 9-11/19-12 and be in great shape.  

As a practical matter, however, the chances of Minnesota losing to the league's worst team then turning around and beating two of the league's best teams are essentially nil.  

If, like @847badgerfan , you live in the Chicago area and you want to get a good look at the B1G's bubble you should head over to Welsh-Ryan for the Wildcats' next two home games.  They host Minneosta tonight at 9 EST, 8CST and Ohio State next Wednesday also at 9EST/8CST.  Those two games are very important to the tournament chances of the Gophers and Buckeyes.  

[ELA]

I don't keep our old tier spreadsheets so I don't have an easy way to look it up, but it feels like we have had more upsets this year than most.  I think that is simply a product of the bottom of our league being unusually strong.  Typically, with 14 teams (or even back when it was 11 or 12), at least a few are just REALLY bad.  This year I think even our worst teams are at least decent.  Maryland's loss last night to one of the worst teams in the league (by record anyway) illustrates that.  

I'll do a full update tomorrow but the short version is that with the PSU>UMD upset we now project:

• That Michigan, Maryland, and Wisconsin will all tie at 14-6 for 3rd/4th/5th place.  
• That Penn State, Nebraska, and Northwestern will all tie at 5-15 for 12th/13th/14th place.  

I'll figure out all the tiebreakers when I do the full update tomorrow.  

I'd be curious as to the nature of the upsets?
How many were "upsets" where a higher tier team won a road game over a team 1 tier below them, vs. how many would have been upsets without any H/A qualifier.

[ELA]

Not really a gambler, but Washington -13 at Cal and Michigan -13.5 at home against Nebraska seem like easy money tonight

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd be curious as to the nature of the upsets?
How many were "upsets" where a higher tier team won a road game over a team 1 tier below them, vs. how many would have been upsets without any H/A qualifier.

Here are our 24 upsets:

Date	Won	@/v	Lost
30-Nov	UW	@	IA
4-Dec	IU	@	PSU
5-Dec	tOSU	@*	IL
3-Jan	MN	@	UW
11-Jan	PU	@	UW
14-Jan	UNL	@	IU
18-Jan	NU	@	RU
26-Jan	RU	@	PSU
26-Jan	IL	@*	UMD
26-Jan	tOSU	@	UNL
1-Feb	IA	v	M
2-Feb	IU	@	MSU
4-Feb	PSU	@	NU
5-Feb	IL	v	MSU
10-Feb	tOSU	@	IU
12-Feb	MSU	@	UW
12-Feb	PSU	v	M
13-Feb	RU	@	NU
14-Feb	IL	@	tOSU
19-Feb	UMD	@	IA
23-Feb	PSU	@	IL
24-Feb	MSU	@	M
26-Feb	IU	v	UW
27-Feb	PSU	v	UMD

Nineteen of the 24 are wins by the road team including two (tOSU vs IL at Chicago and IL vs UMD at NYC) that weren't really road games.  
There are a few sets where the road team won both in a series:

• Ohio State beat Illinois in Chicago, Illinois beat Ohio State in Columbus.  
• Minnesota won at Wisconsin, Wisconsin won at Minnesota (the second wasn't an "upset" by our definition).  
• Northwestern won at Rutgers, Rutgers won at Northwestern.  

So five of the 19 road upsets were parts of a series where the "road" team won both games.  

The other 14 per the tiers:

• Wisconsin is a better team, won at Iowa
• Indiana is a better team, won at PSU
• Purdue is a better team, won at UW
• UNL and IU are equal, UNL won on the road
• Rutgers is a better team, won at PSU
• IL is NOT a better team won "at" UMD
• tOSU is a better team, won at UNL
• IU is NOT a better team, won at MSU
• PSU is NOT a better team, won at NU
• tOSU is a better team, won at IU
• MSU is a better team, won at UW
• UMD is a better team, won at Iowa
• PSU is NOT a better team, won at IL
• MSU and M are equal, MSU won on the road

[medinabuckeye1]

So for the 24 upsets:

• Eight involved a better team winning unexpectedly on the road.  
• Five involved an inferior team beating a better team at home.  
• Five were one-half of a series where the road team won both games.  
• Four involved an inferior team winning on the road against a better team.  
• Two were equivalent teams where the road team won.  

The first and most numerous category (better teams winning on the road) suggest that we are giving home-court-advantage too much weight.  

The second category (inferior teams winning at home) suggests that we are not giving home-court-advantage enough weight.  

The third category (series where the road team wins both games) are unavoidably impossible to project.  

The fourth category (inferior teams winning on the road) are unavoidably impossible to project.  

The fifth category (equivalent teams winning on the road) are unavoidably impossible to project.  

[MaximumSam]

Nearing the end KenPom

1. MSU (4)
2. Michigan (7)
3. Purdue (10)
4. Wiscy (12)
5. Maryland (18)
6. Iowa (32)
7. OSU (33)
8. Nebraska (43)
9. PSU (45)
10. Indiana (48)
11. Minny (49)
12. Illinois (65)
13. NW (70)
14. Rutgers (80)

[ELA]

Surprised Northwestern could still be anything but last, but of the rankings in Massey's composite, Northwestern is actually only behind Rutgers in 33 of 63, so just barely over half.  Guessing the ones they aren't have no recency bias?

[MaximumSam]

Compare to NET ranking

1. MSU (6)
2. Michigan (9)
3. Purdue (12)
4. Wisconsin (16)
5. Maryland (26)
6. Iowa (33)
7. OSU (40)
8. Nebraska (45)
9. PSU (50)
10. Indiana (59)
11. Minny (60)
12. NW (85)
13. Illinois (91)
14. Rutgers (104)

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:

Minnesota might be in rougher shape than I was previously thinking.  Lunardi still has them as one of his "first four out" and the worldwide leader's "Bubble Watch" states that they can play their way in (I agree that they CAN).  That said, they are rapidly running out of time.  They won their last two games in January to finish that month at 6-4/16-5.  The problem is that since then they have lost six of seven and the only win was at home against a reeling Indiana.  

In the Massey composite posted by @ELA on Tuesday they were seventh in the conference and 45th nationally but in the KenPom and NET rankings posted by @MaximumSam earlier today they are 11th in the conference and 49th and 60th nationally respectively.  

Minnesota REALLY needs a win tonight in Evanston.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

How many teams are still in the hunt for the regular season title?

[medinabuckeye1]

How many teams are still in the hunt for the regular season title?

MSU and PU are in the lead at 14-3 so the worst they could possibly end up is 14-6.  Thus, only the five teams with six or less losses are mathematically in the hunt for the regular season title, those are:

• 14-3 MSU
• 14-3 PU
• 13-4 M
• 12-6 UMD
• 11-6 UW

That said, as a practical matter Maryland and Wisconsin have no chance.  It is theoretically possible that either MSU (@IU, vUNL, vM) or PU (vtOSU, @MN, @NU) could hit a swoon and lose out but it isn't a realistic possibility that both of them will lose out and that Michigan will beat MSU but lose their other two remaining games (vUNL, @UMD).  

Thus, as a practical matter it is between MSU, PU, and M and even there the Wolverines are facing very long odds because they are a game down AND they have the toughest remaining schedule.  

Short answer:  Purdue and MSU are strong co-favorites with Michigan well behind and nobody else has a realistic shot.  

[ELA]

Congrats Purdue


https://twitter.com/Jellis1016/status/1101249186341752832?s=19

[ELA]

So is this just Miles burning down the locker room on his way out?

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW, Michigan's win mathematically eliminated the Badgers and Terps from the league championship race because the Wolverines and Spartans each have 14 wins and play each other. The winner of that game can do no worse than 15-5 while UMD and UW can do no better than 14-6.