More detail on the B1G's bubble teams:
In Lunardi's latest bracketology there are multiple teams with sub .500 conference records in the field. Within the B1G, Ohio State (currently 7-9) is in as a #10 seed and Minnesota (currently 7-10) is barely out as one of the "First Four Out". I agree generally so I don't think that our Bubble teams necessarily need to get to 10-10 or better to get in.
Beyond that is the issue of how well these teams will do in the BTT. At 9-11 either the Buckeyes or the Gophers would probably get in with an 0-1 record in the BTT (it would be close, might not happen). At 8-12 I think either would need to go at least 1-1.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are currently 7-9/17-10 with four games left. Those games, sorted from most likely win to most likely loss are:
- at Northwestern on 3/6
- vs Iowa tonight
- vs Wisconsin on 3/10
- at Purdue on 3/2
We project them to win only the Iowa game and finish 8-12/18-13. With that record they would most likely need several wins in Chicago.
As I see it, the Purdue game in West Lafayette is an almost certain loss. The other three could go either way. Iowa and Wisconsin are better teams but they come to Columbus. Ohio State is better than Northwestern but that game is in Evanston.
Tonight's game is enormously important for the Buckeyes because if they win it then they probably just need to split the UW/NU games but if the Buckeyes lose tonight then they need to win every winnable game from here on out.
Minnesota:
The Gophers are 7-10/17-11 with three games left. Those games, sorted from most likely win to most likely loss are:
- at Northwestern on Thursday
- vs Purdue on 3/5
- at Maryland on 3/8
IMHO, the Gophers have zero room for error. They have to win the first two because I don't think they have any serious chance of winning in College Park. We project them to lose all three and finish 7-13/17-14.