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Topic: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week

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Temp430

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#20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« on: October 25, 2021, 09:26:35 AM »
Kickoff is at 7:30 PM on ABC.  The Buckeyes are favored by 17.5.  I thought this game might be close then the injury to Clifford and Illinois happened.
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MaximumSam

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2021, 09:36:47 AM »
Buckeyes ascend to #1 on SP+ on the strength of their offense, which is miles ahead of the next team. But the Nits come in with easily the best defense the Buckeyes have seen, especially on the back end. Should be a heck of a battle in the passing game. Nits were supposed to be the best offense Buckeyes played to see what their defense looks like, but that Illinois game didn't exactly instill confidence in anyone.

Weather should be B1G standard - 50's with chance of rain.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2021, 09:50:39 AM »
Now that footballoutsiders doesn't have SP+ anymore, is SP anywhere other than behind ESPN's paywall?  
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MaximumSam

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2021, 09:57:18 AM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 25, 2021, 09:50:39 AM
Now that footballoutsiders doesn't have SP+ anymore, is SP anywhere other than behind ESPN's paywall? 
Not really, though Football Outsiders still lists the main ranking as part of F+. I was going by Bill Connelly's tweets
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2021, 10:40:05 AM »
Yeah....I used to like to take a look at SP split into offense and defense, so I was just wondering.  I think the FEI is interesting, though iirc correctly it's attempting a different measurement.  It's been a few years since I read through the framework, but SP is measuring on a per-play basis, and FEI is measuring on a per-drive basis, is that right?
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2021, 10:52:32 AM »
I think that their struggles vs Illinois can be attributed to them spending an extra week preparing for the Buckeyes. 

If so, we will see a completely different Lion team this Saturday than we saw last Saturday.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2021, 11:04:29 AM »
I thought by now we'd see published in multiple outlets the low-hanging fruit of "Is Franklin distracted due to LSU coming after him?" 

Mind you, I don't believe that.  But it does seem like an obvious thing today's sports media would jump on for clicks after a couple of losses.    
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FearlessF

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2021, 11:51:54 AM »
LSU and USC

of course some bitter drunk sportswriter thinks Dabo could be lured to LSU
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MaximumSam

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2021, 12:40:34 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 25, 2021, 10:40:05 AM
Yeah....I used to like to take a look at SP split into offense and defense, so I was just wondering.  I think the FEI is interesting, though iirc correctly it's attempting a different measurement.  It's been a few years since I read through the framework, but SP is measuring on a per-play basis, and FEI is measuring on a per-drive basis, is that right?
Yeah - I think so at least. It's been a while since I looked at SP+ stuff and now it's behind a paywall. But both are tempo-free and get roughly to the same spot. I follow Bill Connelly on twitter so he's very open on how he puts stuff in to make it more accurate and measures it's success every week. The FEI guy probably does the same thing, but I don't follow him on twitter so I wouldn't know :)
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MrNubbz

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2021, 01:28:28 PM »
A healthy Clifford and this is a close game,but they have nothing to loose by pulling out the stops.It can come together for one game.Dotson/Smith on the outside,Cain and Lee running if they can move the chains. Keep up sustained drives going while the Buckeyes high octane receiving corp side lined and out of sorts,who knows.Lions D- Line wasn't playing too bad but the Illini certainly gashed them for over 360 yds I had read.The Lions were big favorites at home and the Illini flipped the script.Situation will be almost identical this saturday nite,maybe the Lions can do the same.Hope it is close with the good guys on top of course
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MrNubbz

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2021, 01:31:11 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 25, 2021, 11:51:54 AM
LSU and USC
of course some bitter drunk sportswriter thinks Dabo could be lured to LSU
Franklin can recruit ran into bad luck getting a good QB hurt.PSU better have a suitable replacement,if they're entertaining the thought
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MrNubbz

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2021, 01:45:47 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on October 25, 2021, 09:36:47 AM
Buckeyes ascend to #1 on SP+ 

What the hell is this SP?can find up to date BIG info here
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MaximumSam

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2021, 01:57:28 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 25, 2021, 01:45:47 PM
What the hell is this SP?can find up to date BIG info here
Essentially a computer ranking, where they are up front about what they are measuring. Take yards per play and adjust based on opponent and the situation per play (i.e. a four yard gain on 3rd and 3 is good, on 3rd and 10 not so much, at least on offense. Vice versa on defense). 

It used to be free but ESPN hired the guy and then put it behind a paywall.
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Cincydawg

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Re: #20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2021, 01:59:57 PM »
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
It is, as always, important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. It is a look at how teams should likely perform moving forward.
ESPN +


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