| These two teams both had a ton of momentum at this time a week ago, and while trips to Happy Valley and East Lansing were daunting, wins were attainable, and could have really escalated the magnitude of this game. Instead Iowa missed an opportunity, and Purdue's offense never made the trip. So while nationally this game doesn't make the radar, I still think it's one of the more interesting offerings nationwide this week, aside from the few behemoth games. The computers still like both of these teams quite a bit, even if the pollsters don't. The Hawkeyes remain #12 in the composite computer rankings, right on the trail of #10 Florida and #11 Penn State for best 2 loss team. Likewise, Purdue hangs on at #40, which is one spot behind #39 Missouri for highest ranked 4 loss team, ahead of some 3 loss Power 5 teams, including Big Tenners Wisconsin, Northwestern and Maryland. While the offense needs to get going again, that feels more like a hiccup than an actual problem. Although the health of Rondale Moore is a legitimate concern at this point. Michigan State bottled him up, and it's no surprise that what followed was Purdue's worst offensive performance of the season. Yes, he had 11 catches, but for only 74 yards. His 6.7 ypc was his worst aside from the Eastern Michigan game, as were his 74 total yards scrimmage yards, a week after lighting up Ohio State for 194. It was also the only time other than the Eastern Michigan game he failed to record a 30 yard play. Sensing a pattern? Blough is good, Brohm knows offense, but this is still a program adding weapons, and right now if Moore isn't at his best, the offense struggles. Now there's a concern he might not play at all. But defensively Nick Holt needs to get the pressure dialed up. He had a chance against a freshman quarterback making his first career start last week, and the Boilermakers let him get way too comfortable. They totaled 1 sack and only 4 hurries against a struggling offensive line, and let a kid with a limited playbook, and down his top two receivers, work through his options enough to spread the ball around to 9 different receivers. If Rocky Lombardi can beat you with that kind of time, Nate Stanley will kill you. Last week changed once Penn State started getting pressure. Stanley is as good as there is in the conference in a clean pocket, which his offensive line typically provides, allowing a conference best 1.0 sacks per game. But that drops quickly if you get to him. Purdue will have to bring extra guys to do it, so it's on Stanley to beat the blitz. The pressure is also going to be on Purdue's tackles to do a lot better than they did last week. A big reason Blough struggled so much is because Michigan State consistently got pressure with 4 guys, so he was throwing hurried passes into 7 man coverages. Iowa is probably weaker in the middle of the line than Michigan State, but their edge rushers are better. Anthony Nelson and A.J. Espensa have combined for 13 sacks this season. Blough has struggled with holding the ball too long on third down. At least Michigan State's pressure he could see, Iowa's he won't, and they will be seeking some strip sacks. Purdue has looked like a different team at home, but Iowa looks to me like a better version of the Michigan State team that just proved to be a bad matchup for the Boilermakers. They struggle some to run, but have a strong passing game, with a much better quarterback this week. A defense that is elite up front and can both stop the run and get pressure with just four guys, allowing to drop 7 and force Blough to hit small windows. But Iowa also has a better secondary waiting back there. A bit better weather, and it's at home, so I think we'll see a touch more offense, but if Purdue couldn't beat Michigan State, I don't see them beating basically a better version of Michigan State. |
