ELA 130 Team Countdown

[ELA]

Rice could go two ways:

1) Bloomgren, despite his Stanford history, might bring in a more "sling it all over the field" offensive coordinator. If he's a good coach, he'll adapt to what talent level and skill sets he has in his recruiting base. That's what good coaches do.

2) Bloomgren, by recruiting to a niche that currently is perhaps underserved, will manage to grab players that don't fit the "sling it all over the field" mold, much like Wisconsin does.

Either way, the results will probably depend on whether he's a good coach. Good coaches figure out what it will take to win where they're at, even if it's not their core idea, and implement it.

He actually made a pretty interesting hire, bringing in Jerry Mack, who had done a really good job as head coach at NC Central.  He was RB coach for Bloomgren when Bloomgren was OC at Delta State.
FWIW, here's what Bloomgren said when asked...
"I believe in a West Coast foundation with a power running game. I think if you can run the rock, control the clock and score touchdowns, and play great defense, it's a recipe to win games and championships," Bloomgren said. "In year one, we're going to see what best fits our personnel and how we can incorporate those things, but you will feel and see a physical style of play."

[Brutus Buckeye]

Rice is 14-7 all time vs UTep, all since 1996 when they became Conference rivals; first in the Wac, now in CUSA West. 

Rice is 2-2 vs TXST, splitting a pair of two game series; one in the 1920s and the other in the 1980s. 

[ELA]

Saturday and Sunday here

122. Charlotte 49ers

#12 in Conference USA

After some solid progress from Year 1 to Year 2 as an FBS member, going from 2-10 to 4-8 (3-5 in Conference USA), the 49ers took a step back, and went 1-11 in Year 3.  The lone win came by going for 2 and the win in overtime against UAB.  In fairness, Brad Lambert went all in on building for the future, finishing the year by starting only 4 seniors, only 1 of which was on defense.  The question is whether he’ll be around for the future he’s building.  It starts with whether those 10 returning starters on defense can take a step forward, because they were awful at all levels a year ago, second worst in the conference both against the run and the pass.  They are building from the back up, and have to, with a pass rush that was non-existent last year, getting to the opposing quarterback less than once per game, and can’t get off the field.  The 49ers defense was on the field nearly 33 minutes a game last year, most in Conference USA.  They may get some instant help from JUCO transfer Dantrell Barkley, who was originally committed to South Carolina.  He’s probably the highest rated recruit in the program’s short history, and has a chance to make an instant impact assuming he qualifies.  Offensively Hasaan Klugh returns as his third year starting at quarterback, but you do wonder if it’s a positive or not.  After showing plenty of flashes as a sophomore in 2016, completing 54% of his passes, running for nearly 5 yards per carry, and throwing only 3 picks compared to 10 touchdowns; he regressed in 2017.  His completion percentage fell to 47%, his touchdowns held steady, while his interceptions jumped from 3 to 13; and his yards per rush fell by 0.9, while his yards per pass attempt fell by 0.6, and that was with an experienced group of receivers, including a pair of senior starters.  There was never a moment, even in some late season blowouts, where it seemed like his starting job was in jeopardy though.

Key Players

QB		Hasaan Klugh, Senior
RB		Benny LeMay, Junior
G		Nate Davis, Senior
	-
LB		Juwan Foggie, Senior
LB		Jeff Gemmell, Junior
S		Ben DeLuca, Junior

121. San Jose State Spartans

#10 in Mountain West

Remember when it was still August, and we were all so desperate for football, that foregoing some fleeting summer moments in favor of watch a Week Zero South Florida-San Jose State football game seemed like a good idea?  And remember how San Jose State jumped on top of the ranked Bulls 16-0 only 12 minutes into the game?  Well that was about the last good memory in 2017 for San Jose State.  South Florida scored 42 in a row to pull away, and the Spartans lost 11 straight FBS games, with only a 37-26 loss to Hawaii being by 2 scores or less.  At least they had linebacker Frank Ginda, who led the nation with 173 tackles, coming back for his senior year after an offseason of hype and publicity.  Instead the undersized inside linebacker left early for the NFL Draft, where he is likely to be a 5th or 6th round type pick.  The Spartans hope to grow alongside their rising sophomore quarterback Montel Aaron, who looked like a freshman at times, but also had big moments too, like a 300 yard day against Hawaii.  He was injured against Utah, and missed four games.  Those four games, San Jose State was outscored 183-49.  The improvement needed is on defense, which will be tough without the nation’s leading tackler.  The Spartans were the worst defense in the Mountain West, particularly against the run, giving up 289 rushing yards per game, and over 3 touchdowns.  Derrick Odum returns for a second year as Defensive Coordinator, and a big part of the problem was trying to implement a 3-4 defense without the bodies up front to do it.  He gets all three of his down linemen back, but that won’t be a good thing if they can’t hold the line any better.  Owen Roberts is listed as 6’2” 290 in the middle, and that’s not getting it done.  PLaying behind him is what gave Frank Ginda all the tackle opportunities he had.

QB		Montel Aaron, Sophomore
RB		Tyler Nevens, Sophomore
K		Bryce Crawford, Senior
	-
LB		Jamal Scott, Senior
CB		Dakari Monroe, Senior
S		Ethan Aguayo, Junior

120. UTSA Roadrunners

#11 in Conference USA

Well yesterday we discussed how UTSA’s conference rival, Charlotte, went all in on a youth movement in a disastrous 2017 campaign.  UTSA went the opposite direction, and put a boatload of talent out on the field, trying to turn the program’s first ever bowl appearance the year before in to perhaps a Conference USA title.  After winning their first three, including the program’s first ever win over a Power 5 team, in Baylor, and a 5-2 record heading into November, the Roadrunners lost 3 of 4 in the last month, and were passed over for a bowl game, even at 6-5.  Now the rebuild begins.  UTSA started 9 seniors on offense, and 5 on defense.  The good news is there is some talent returning on the defensive side, a side that was probably the best unit in Conference USA, holding opponents to a conference best 17.0 ppg, on only 287 ypg, best in the conference by nearly 50 ypg.  The problem is they probably can’t afford any dropoff on defense.  They gave up only 16.2 ppg over that 4 game stretch in November where they lost 4...because they only scored 10.2 ppg themselves.  Their lone win was 9-7 over Marshall.  Marcus Davenport turned heads at the Senior Bowl, he’ll be sorely missed, but the rest of the defensive line returns intact, so from the trenches out is how they’ll have to win.  All 6 skill position players move on (including the tight end) from an offense that already struggled.  Jalen Rhodes and Tyrell Clay really were a 1a and 1b in the backfield, so retaining Rhodes is essentially like returning a starter, and he was the more effective of the two.  He’ll try to find his holes on the left side of the line, behind left tackle Josh Dunlop and left guard Jordan Wright, the lone returning starters.  Figure Rhodes to pile up the carries with the entire passing game being a huge question mark.

RB		Jalen Rhodes, Senior
T		Josh Dunlop, Junior
K		Jared Sackett, Sophomore
	-
DT		Kevin Strong, Senior
S		Carl Austin, Senior
S		C.J. Levine, Senior

[Brutus Buckeye]

Alright. No Big Ten/P5 teams among the Bottom 11 bottom feeders. 

[Hawkinole]

I don't think there are any dormant Big Ten teams, right now. Even teams like Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers who seem to bring up the bottom probably would not bring up the bottom in any other conference.

Oops! How forgettable is Illinois?  Very.

ELA, don't forget Illinois - I almost did.

[ELA]

119. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

#10 in Conference USA

After a run of 5 bowl games in the last 6 years, including back to back Conference USA championships in 2015 and 2016, it may seem odd to see the Hilltoppers this low, but the trajectory began a year ago.  While Western Kentucky did get to play in a bowl game last year, it was an uninspiring loss to Georgia State in the Cure Bowl, to cap a 6-7 season, which included wins over a 4-7 FCS team; 3 teams that we have already gotten to in the countdown; plus Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee.  And that was with a senior laden offense that was largely responsible for back conference titles.  The program has gone through a number of coaches over the past decade in their rise from FCS school to the top of the Conference USA.  They hit three home runs in a row with Willie Taggart, Bobby Petrino and Jeff Brohm.  While it's unfair to write Mike Sanford off after one year, it's also unfair to compare him to those guys.  It's also tough to know your coaching hires will either hit, and leave, or miss.  The major question is where is the offense going to come from.  The Hilltoppers were a middle of the road Conference USA offense, which itself was a major downgrade from where they had been.  But they were entirely dependent on the passing game, which accounted for 85% of thier yardage.  They simply could not run the ball at all, averaging 60 ypg on only 2.0 ypc.  Both numbers were worst in the nation, by a large margin.  That ypc stat was worst by almost a full yard.  Now Mike White, his top three WRs, and the starting TE are all gone.  So the question again, where is the offense coming from?  Is the philosophy truly to throw that often?  Or did the fact that they couldn't run, even when they tried, push them over the edge.  As Bill Connelly pointed out, Western Kentucky had zero runs on the season of 20+ yards.  No other team had fewer than 6.  You can generally fall into a play like that with one good playcall, or one blown defensive assignment.  Nope.  Not a single one.  A lot of that starts on the line, where you had a pair of freshmen starting on the right side, and mix that with losing your offensive line coach to a medical issue midway through the season.  They couldn't run block, and Mike White was under a lot more pressure than he was behind three senior All-Conference USA performers in 2016.  Now the right side has some experience, but both guys from the left side graduated.  Senior Dennis Edwards in the middle, is going to have a lot on his plate, particularly with uncertainty under center.  The Hilltoppers have gone right from four years of Kawaun Jakes to three years of Brandon Doughty to two years of Mike White.  Honestly, it hasn't been since Jakes won the job as a freshman in 2009, in the school's first year in FBS, that they've entered the season with uncertainty at quarterback.

Key Players

RB		D'Andre Ferby, Senior
WR		Lucky Jackson, Junior
C		Dennis Edwards, Senior
	-
CB		DeAndre Farris, Senior
S		Drell Greene, Senior
P		Jake Collins, Senior

[ELA]

Heh, can't use grey font if the post falls on one with a grey background.

[MrNubbz]

ELA - thanx again for these efforts!!! What I don't know about these programs could fill The Library of Congess.Good Stuff

[CatsbyAZ]

Wow the Mountain West has fallen off the past few years... two teams in the bottom 10?  I'm not even sure it's the 3rd-best G5 conference this year.

You know who else has similarly fallen off the last few years? The MTW's geographic partner, the PAC 12.
Only program I see living up to the coaching, mental toughness, depth of roster, and consistent QBing of a name Big Ten program is Washington. 
Yes I am leaving SC off that list because I don't think their coaching is good, and Stanford, though ranked, is losing to teams they shouldn't every season now.

[Brutus Buckeye]

I prognosticate that the Golden Flashes will be the first Ohio team to find their way onto this list. 

[ELA]

118. Georgia State Panthers

#8 in Sun Belt

Georgia State returns a lot of key pieces from their second bowl team in three years.  What they lack is a number of guys they can trust with the ball in their hands, following the graduation of most of their skill position players.  The one sure thing they have is a dynamic playmaker in Penny Hart.  Hart was a breakout star as a freshman in 2015, with 71 catches for 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns.  However his 2016 was a total loss.  He injured his hamstring in the opener against Ball State, and missed the Air Force and Wisconsin games.  He returned the following week against Appalachian State, broke his foot and was lost for the season, playing in a portion of just two games.  Any questions about lingering effects were put to rest with an 11 reception, 141 yard afternoon in their third game of the season in 2017, against Charlotte, the first of three consecutive 130+ yard games.  He finished as the Sun Belt Conference's leading receiver, with 74 catches for 1,121 yards.  Good for #15 in the nation.  But can Aaron Winchester get him the ball?  Winchester is the presumed successor to Conner Manning at quarterback, the only only one on the roster to have attempted a pass in a game.  He is more useful with his legs than his arm though.  His last extended action came in a blowout loss at Penn State last September, where he ran the ball 12 times, but only attempted 3 passes.  While Winchester might be the best quarterback they have, if he can't figure out how to get the ball to Hart, they may look elsewhere.  Defensively, Georgia State goes as far as a very solid 3 man front, in their 3-4 scheme, can take them.  Watch for Dontae Wilson to have a breakout year.  As a true freshman nose tackle last year backing up Julien Laurent, Wilson tied for the team lead in sacks with 4.  A lot of production from a guy you just hope to clog holes.  He did that all only a couple months after finishing high school, at a position you typically need a couple years of college offseason programs to grow into.  After his first season in a college weight room, he is primed to jump onto the radar.  Wilson is a smart kid too, originally committed to play at West Point, before changing his mind at the last minute.  Andrew Dodge was retained as special team coordinator, and how well his unit performs may have a lot to do with Georgia State finding their way into another bowl.  The Panthers had the worst net punting average in the conference (34.8 ypp), while putting the most punts into the end zone, and having the worst field goal percentage (52.2%).

Key Players

WR		Penny Hart, Junior
TE		Ari Werts, Senior
G		Shamarious Gilmore, Sophomore
	-
DE		Marterious Allen, Senior
DT		Dontae Wilson, Sophomore
LB		Michael Shaw, Senior

[Brutus Buckeye]

There sure are a lot of recent FCS call ups that have failed to make the jump successfully. 

[Hawkinole]

Hilltoppers and Georgia State, bowl opponents in the fart zone? ELA has gone from academia to irreverence! Welcome to my world.

[fezzador]

There sure are a lot of recent FCS call ups that have failed to make the jump successfully.

I think in a lot of cases, the 20-schollie difference between FCS and FBS is a lot to overcome.  I'm guessing a lot of these FBS newbies are probably finding any live body they can find and put them on scholarship.  And even the weak conferences are stiffer competition than any FCS conference. 
That, and some of the ones that made the jump weren't all that great even in the FCS.  JMU and NDSU would probably be successful because they have proven they can go toe-to-toe in the country with just about anyone.  Even though it's not quite a successful, I think JMU is the more likely of the two programs to make the jump to FBS because of its geography.  There are 3 G5 conferences it could conceivably join (CUSA probably most likely, then Sun Belt, and finally the American).  There really aren't many options for NDSU because it's so isolated.  It's hundreds of miles from the nearest MAC and MWC schools, and so would probably need a traveling partner (maybe SDSU, and even that's 200 miles away) to ease the transition.