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Topic: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year

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bamajoe

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2018, 04:21:58 PM »
For UF:

UK - 90% chance of a win, probably more   60%
@ Tenn - 85% chance of a win                   70%
@ MSU - 50% chance                                33%
LSU - 65%                                                60%
@ Vandy - 90%                                         75%
UGA - 35%                                               10%
Mizzou - 85%                                            60%
USCe - 75%                                              60%
@ FSU - 50%                                            20%

Presuming the Gators are at least "pretty good", they could be 9-3 easily enough barring bad injuries.

They also might not be "pretty good" but only half decent.  And yes they can beat UGA.
I think 8-4 as they will lose at least one of the games that they are a slight favorite like, maybe, Missouri or South Carolina or LSU. I don't think Florida is very good and simply benefit from playing in the SEC East.

Cincydawg

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2018, 05:14:03 PM »
I don't know how good USCe or LSU will turn out to be.  Both COULD be mediocre indeed (6-6ish).  

If so, Florida could have a gaudy record if they hold serve (10-2).


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2018, 09:57:13 PM »
With all those suspensions last year, Florida is in a unique situation.  That was 10 dudes just gone, right before the season started.  So ignoring the incoming recruiting class, UF got its starting RB back, instant depth at LB, and a couple WRs.  Add to those, the 2 incoming WRs with experience, and it's an overall roster upgrade - none of which are 18 year olds.

Honestly, if Florida can have a top-60 offense, the Gators will be 9-3 or better.  I don't know what the odds are of the offense being that decent are, but top-60 isn't some shot-in-the-dark impossibility.  It's feasible, and if accomplished, Florida will matter in November.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2018, 07:48:23 AM »
Like LSU, it probably comes down to QB play, though most think Mullen is the better coach.

They appear to have an outside shot at 11-1 and the CG in Atl, better than I had been thinking before considering the schedule.

FSU gets a lot back also with a first year coach, but that game doesn't "count" for UF ...




Gigem

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2018, 10:42:32 AM »
I don't think A&M will make waves this year but I like our chances to ruin somebody else's chances.


Cincydawg

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2018, 11:57:02 AM »
My "if everything goes right" is about this for each team, realistic considerations, like how it happened for UGA last year:

UGA 12-0
UF  11-1
USCe 11-1
Mizzou  9-3
UK 8-4
Tenn 7-5
Vandy 6-6

This means the apparent holes in the team fill up reasonably well and they win most of their close games.

If things go wrong, you can probably take 3-4-5 wins off that list, or more for UF and USCe.  I suppose each could fade to 7-5, or 6-6, injuries, distractions, losing close games.

bamajoe

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2018, 01:34:28 PM »
I can't see anyway Florida or South Carolina go 11 and 1. To do so would require SC to beat either Georgia or Clemson and Florida to beat either Georgia or FSU plus both teams beating everyone else. There is little chance of either happening.

Cincydawg

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2018, 09:04:01 AM »
Little chance = some chance, which in these cases means that the opponents cited turn out to be less good than expected, and everything falls into place for USCe and UF.

I do agree that 11-1 is a real stretch, perhaps 10-2 would be better.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #22 on: August 25, 2018, 05:20:37 PM »
I can't see anyway Florida or South Carolina go 11 and 1. To do so would require SC to beat either Georgia or Clemson and Florida to beat either Georgia or FSU plus both teams beating everyone else. There is little chance of either happening.
Florida isn't likely to go 11-1, but look at it:
Florida should be 4-0 going into the Miss State game.  LSU follows at home.  If - IF - the offense is a normal, functioning offense, Florida beats MSU.  Once UF is 5-0, they will be favored in the rest of their games, except for the UGA game in Jax.
Florida is also unlikely to go 5-7, but they could.  The road trip to Starkville could easily be a loss, then another loss in a toss-up LSU game.  UGA and FSU would then likely be losses, and UF would hope for a split between Mizzou and USce, but could lose both.  
But saying there's no way Florida could go 11-1 is simply false.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
« Reply #23 on: August 25, 2018, 11:53:23 PM »
Like LSU, it probably comes down to QB play, though most think Mullen is the better coach.
It's more about the OL for LSU than the QB.  I hate to deem a guy who's never played a down in the SEC a known quantity, but it's a pretty safe bet what he'll be.  He'll be "fine."  Similar to Danny Etling last year, who had (I think) the best efficiency in the conference and did a lot of things you want to see, yet still managed to be more or less non-threatening.  Nobody said "Oh crap, our defense faces Etling next week."  Burrow is almost certainly going to have a season that's "good enough" if everybody else does their job fairly well.  He's not going to be a force that makes things happen on his own or covers up for a lackluster line and/or receivers who struggle.  
The OL is a bigger concern.  There's a potential for a wild swing here.  They stand to be very good by the end of the year, maybe even hovering near the best lines in the league for next year's pre-season prognostications if everybody stays healthy and out of jail.  But they're going to struggle out of the gate this year.  I don't care how talented they are, they don't have enough starts and starts together to be a dominant unit.  Miami is a rough first test, the U was very good at collapsing the pocket and rushing the QB last year.  As the OL goes, this offense will go.  The WRs will be about like the QB, they'll be "fine" if the line allows things to happen.  They won't break any games open by themselves.  
If the line plays well, the offense will probably start "okay" and end the season up "pretty good."  If the line can't get it together the offense will be stuck in "Oh hey look, LSU's offense sucks again" until further notice.  

 

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