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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2018, 10:21:43 AM

Title: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2018, 10:21:43 AM

So, the "media" have chosen the two teams for the SEC Championship game, so we may as well skip the preliminaries.  What?  You don't want to?  Surely the media have to be right, eh?

So, who might upend the season?  

In the East, South Carolina hosts UGA and could finish 6-2 without some stretch of imagination.  If the Dawgs go 6-2 also, USCe is in the Dance obviously.  Florida is in the same boat of course with the game at a neutral site.  I don't think anyone else is ready to sneak into the mix.

UF plays @ MSU which could be a battle but gets LSU and USCe at home.

USCe hosts UGA but gets UF on the road (and Ole Miss) but A&M at home.  They have a decent shot at 6-2 I think, if not 7-1.

MSU gets LSU and Bama on the road and Auburn at home plus UF at home.  Not looking propitious to me.

Auburn has to play AT Bama, UGA, and MSU and gets LSU at home.  Ouch also.

LSU gets MSU, Bama, and UGA at home and Auburn and UF on the road.  They play every SEC team apparently good this year except USCe.  

The West to me looks like everybody is going to beat up everybody else except Bama who appears very likely to be 7-1 or 8-0, to me.  

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2018, 11:57:04 AM

Could anyone else in the East sneak in?

I'd pick Missouri to have the best chance, then UK, Tenn, and Vandy, with diminishing probabilities.  They play @Bama and host UGA and get Arky at home from the West.  If they could sneak up on UGA, which is possible with their firepower, well, they go on the road to UF and USCe, not an easy row to hoe.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 08, 2018, 01:43:44 PM

LSU has the usual questions, i.e., will the offense resemble anything coherent?  Supposedly the QB spot is still in competition, but it's almost certainly going to be the xfer from Ohio State.  The O-line is shuffled some but returns a number of guys who got plenty time last year.  They likely won't start out the best, but should be very good by the end of the season.  Next year they should be a preseason contender for best in conference.  They did just take a hit with Ingram's indefinite suspension due to the dreaded unspecified "violation of team rules."  

The FG specialist xfer has looked good in camp so far.  Last year a "serviceable" kicker would've picked up W's against Troy and Notre Dame.  Not that the season would've qualitatively been much different, but 11-2 sounds better than 9-4, and would probably reflect in people's preseason views on the team.  Made me miss Les.  You never had to worry about a FG kicker with him.  Always was a couple of solid guys on scholly.  

The defense, on paper, stands to be the best LSU has seen in a number of years.  They should be really, really good, even by LSU standards.  There's a question at one CB spot.  No questions if Fulton should be cleared by the NCAA this week.  The line will do a great job at the main thing Aranda wants from it--occupying blockers and allowing the LBs to clean up on tackles, hit gaps, and pressure the QB.  But it can hit another level if one or more of the DLs can contribute more in the big-play department themselves....push the pocket and make tackles behind the line, etc.  That would take them from "tough SEC out" to "one of the best in the country."  

Big question in my mind is can Orgeron be a good gameday coach?  

This is a team that could make some noise.  Probably a year away on paper from a legit division contender, but will surprise some people.  It's hard to fathom the 7-5 record people are projecting.....LSU getting to 8 wins is the most reliable thing in the SEC at the moment.  

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2018, 04:22:20 PM

"LSU gets MSU, Bama, and UGA at home and Auburn and UF on the road.".

That says a lot I think about their prospects.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 08, 2018, 06:15:10 PM

Well @ Auburn is a loss.  LSU wins there only slightly more than AU wins in Baton Rouge, which is never.  Bad, bad things happen to LSU on the plains.  These used to be slobber-knockers, but just as often lately the home team not only wins, but beats the tar out of the visitor.

The rest of them are fair game.  The Swamp is tough but Florida doesn't scare me yet.  MSU, despite having the conference's best D-line, doesn't have enough overall to scare me.  Alabama and UGA are better on paper, but not such that LSU has no shot at home, and getting one or both of those wouldn't surprise me.  As would losing to somebody they should beat.  

There's not a lot to hype, it's mainly just potential.  There's a lot more potential here than last season though, particularly in the trenches.  And it's worth noting that despite ridiculous games against Syracuse, Troy, and Notre Dame, they did hit a 6-2 conference mark, best in a few years.  

We'll know more after Miami.  Nobody is picking us, but I'm not so sure about Miami.  They'll be a good litmus test for the first part of the season for sure, but they also made their hay last year against a backloaded schedule that they performed poorly against once the better teams came calling.  Richt is a better coach than Orgeron, so that's something.  

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2018, 09:39:58 AM

I can see LSU losing to Auburn and Bama and finishing 6-2 in conference.  I like their chances against Miami.

Obviously, 6-2 with those two losses probably won't get them into the CG, but perhaps they can upend Bama.  IF they beat Bama of course, 6-2 with a loss to UGA becomes a path to  Atlanta potentially.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 09, 2018, 11:14:57 AM

Assuming Alabama is the favorite for the West again, Auburn could make some noise.  They've got the personnel and coaching to play with anyone.  Only question I need to see answered for them is who totes the rock, and how well.  Malzahn's offense has always worked best when he's had that one special back.  It's a QB friendly and centric system, but it seems to hinge nevertheless on a standout back who turns the key to start up the rest of the engine. 

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2018, 12:19:25 PM

Maybe there is weirdness and Auburn loses to Alabama and Georgia, Alabama loses to LSU and MSU, and LSU loses to Auburn and Georgia.  That would be fun.  But Auburn would go to Atlanta, where they play their third straight game in a month or so.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 09, 2018, 06:10:54 PM

I suspect there's more than 2 losses for LSU somewhere.  Hard to say where exactly, but that's what you get when you don't trust the coach.  And it's all on paper....none of it means anything until I see the teams play a few games.  At this point I mainly compare preseason expectations wrt to previous LSU teams and how they stack up there, but that doesn't say anything about what's going on in the rest of the league.  And often as not things don't work out like you expect anyway.  Sometimes on paper LSU has looked like a world-beater, but couldn't produce.  Other times they've looked like they're a year away and they set the world on fire.  Yet other times they turn out just like I thought.  

Only pretty sure thing I think at this point is they'll exceed the 7-5 prognostications I've seen.  That's asking a lot of a program whose floor--I mean absolute disaster years--has been 8 wins for as long as some of these kids have been alive.  Whether or not beating expectations counts as "making noise" is debatable.  

Not sure where it's going to come from in the East.  UGA is ahead of the pack by a wide margin.  Maybe, MAYBE usc could surprise me.  It'd be a pretty big upset if anybody besides UGA threatens for the division more than halfway through the SEC schedule.  Just not that impressive a group over in the East at the moment, and UGA could potentially dominate even a very tough division.  

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: ALA2262 on August 16, 2018, 09:32:02 AM

LSU. Best case 5-7 (2-6). Worst case 3-9 (0-8). Reminiscent of 2000 Bama which was ranked Preseason #3 and won 3 games. Orgeron is no better than Dumbose.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: bamajoe on August 18, 2018, 09:47:11 AM

 

y  Sep. 2	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fh-m%2Fmiami-fl1.png&hash=9888efac6820568f2b2ea5f011c12974) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-miami-hurricanes-football-schedule.php)	Miami (FL) Hurricanes (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-miami-hurricanes-football-schedule.php)  AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX   W
Saturday  Sep. 8	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fn-s%2Fsoutheastern-louisiana1.png&hash=1f5bf4d795aed469b0b2b2bd355946da)	Southeastern Louisiana Lions W  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Saturday  Sep. 15	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fa-g%2Fauburn1.gif&hash=889c99f2486d7dd78ed0a31a010a69c1) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-auburn-tigers-football-schedule.php)	at Auburn Tigers (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-auburn-tigers-football-schedule.php)  Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL L
Saturday  Sep. 22	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fh-m%2Flouisiana-tech1.png&hash=821087848deca5f192fa0c17439db17a) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-louisiana-tech-bulldogs-football-schedule.php)	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs   (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-louisiana-tech-bulldogs-football-schedule.php)  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Sep. 29	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fh-m%2Fmississippi1.gif&hash=9ec598a46c90c694beca19df59b37aea) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-ole-miss-rebels-football-schedule.php)	Ole Miss Rebels (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-ole-miss-rebels-football-schedule.php)  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Oct. 6	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fa-g%2Fflorida1.gif&hash=73a5458d437bae16e9d13f8d2e29adfc) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-florida-gators-football-schedule.php)	at Florida Gators (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-florida-gators-football-schedule.php)  Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL  W
Saturday  Oct. 13	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fa-g%2Fgeorgia1.gif&hash=2b1e22c79dae25db017c9d3f7c3a4091) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-georgia-bulldogs-football-schedule.php)	Georgia Bulldogs (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-georgia-bulldogs-football-schedule.php)  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Oct. 20	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fh-m%2Fmississippi_st1.gif&hash=934eb23aa7c2f7a6ba3a4158efa7ec3b) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-mississippi-state-bulldogs-football-schedule.php)	Mississippi State Bulldogs (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-mississippi-state-bulldogs-football-schedule.php) (HC)  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Oct. 27		OFF
Saturday  Nov. 3	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fa-g%2Falabama1.gif&hash=90f247f9702276eade52ca3758f17c02) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-alabama-crimson-tide-football-schedule.php)	Alabama Crimson Tide (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-alabama-crimson-tide-football-schedule.php)  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  L
Saturday  Nov. 10	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fa-g%2Farkansas1.gif&hash=552d852b2b4b3b8a536c4c89e3d9b841) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-arkansas-razorbacks-football-schedule.php)	at Arkansas Razorbacks   W (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-arkansas-razorbacks-football-schedule.php)  D.W.R. Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Saturday  Nov. 17	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Fn-s%2Frice1.png&hash=e226908ddf8cdcf55cd5229862bb4c40) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-rice-owls-football-schedule.php)	Rice Owls  W (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-rice-owls-football-schedule.php)  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Saturday  Nov. 24	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fhelmets-ncaa%2Ft-z%2Ftexas_am1.gif&hash=07a654f53a5815224913c48d4fe9eb34) (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-texas-am-aggies-football-schedule.php)	at Texas A&M Aggies   W (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-texas-am-aggies-football-schedule.php)  Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Saturday  Dec. 1	(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbschedules.com%2Fimages%2Flogos%2Fsec-logo-70.png&hash=5946d9a092d35cab776873241305d98a)

I have a little different perspective about LSU. I think they are very talented and their season revolves around the Miami game that I believe they win. That win would give them some confidence and I think they can beat Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi
State, Texas A&M, Florida and even Mississippi State. I'm going 9-3. If they lose to the overrated Hurricanes all bets are off and mediocracy prevails.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 19, 2018, 02:42:11 AM

Florida could start 7-0 or 4-3.  Wind up 11-1 or 5-7.  
I'd put the "probable losses" at 2, with 4 toss-ups.  
That would lend itself to a 8-4 season.

Split MSU/LSU
Get 2 out of 3 from UGA/MIZ/USCe
See what happens in Tallahassee.
Assuming we take care of the Vols.  Might be looking at 9-3/10-2.  Not likely, but there's a path.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: ALA2262 on August 20, 2018, 04:29:58 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 19, 2018, 02:42:11 AM

Florida could start 7-0 or 4-3.  Wind up 11-1 or 5-7.  
I'd put the "probable losses" at 2, with 4 toss-ups.  
That would lend itself to a 8-4 season.

Split MSU/LSU
Get 2 out of 3 from UGA/MIZ/USCe
See what happens in Tallahassee.
Assuming we take care of the Vols.  Might be looking at 9-3/10-2.  Not likely, but there's a path.

I have UF 9-3 (6-2). Losses at MSU, UGA, and at FSU.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 04:10:21 PM

For UF:

UK - 90% chance of a win, probably more
@ Tenn - 85% chance of a win
@ MSU - 50% chance
LSU - 65%
@ Vandy - 90%
UGA - 35%
Mizzou - 85%
USCe - 75%
@ FSU - 50%

Presuming the Gators are at least "pretty good", they could be 9-3 easily enough barring bad injuries.

They also might not be "pretty good" but only half decent.  And yes they can beat UGA.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: bamajoe on August 21, 2018, 04:21:58 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 04:10:21 PM

For UF:

UK - 90% chance of a win, probably more   60%
@ Tenn - 85% chance of a win                   70%
@ MSU - 50% chance                                33%
LSU - 65%                                                60%
@ Vandy - 90%                                         75%
UGA - 35%                                               10%
Mizzou - 85%                                            60%
USCe - 75%                                              60%
@ FSU - 50%                                            20%

Presuming the Gators are at least "pretty good", they could be 9-3 easily enough barring bad injuries.

They also might not be "pretty good" but only half decent.  And yes they can beat UGA.

I think 8-4 as they will lose at least one of the games that they are a slight favorite like, maybe, Missouri or South Carolina or LSU. I don't think Florida is very good and simply benefit from playing in the SEC East.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 05:14:03 PM

I don't know how good USCe or LSU will turn out to be.  Both COULD be mediocre indeed (6-6ish).  

If so, Florida could have a gaudy record if they hold serve (10-2).

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 21, 2018, 09:57:13 PM

With all those suspensions last year, Florida is in a unique situation.  That was 10 dudes just gone, right before the season started.  So ignoring the incoming recruiting class, UF got its starting RB back, instant depth at LB, and a couple WRs.  Add to those, the 2 incoming WRs with experience, and it's an overall roster upgrade - none of which are 18 year olds.

Honestly, if Florida can have a top-60 offense, the Gators will be 9-3 or better.  I don't know what the odds are of the offense being that decent are, but top-60 isn't some shot-in-the-dark impossibility.  It's feasible, and if accomplished, Florida will matter in November.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 07:48:23 AM

Like LSU, it probably comes down to QB play, though most think Mullen is the better coach.

They appear to have an outside shot at 11-1 and the CG in Atl, better than I had been thinking before considering the schedule.

FSU gets a lot back also with a first year coach, but that game doesn't "count" for UF ...

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Gigem on August 22, 2018, 10:42:32 AM

I don't think A&M will make waves this year but I like our chances to ruin somebody else's chances.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 11:57:02 AM

My "if everything goes right" is about this for each team, realistic considerations, like how it happened for UGA last year:

UGA 12-0
UF  11-1
USCe 11-1
Mizzou  9-3
UK 8-4
Tenn 7-5
Vandy 6-6

This means the apparent holes in the team fill up reasonably well and they win most of their close games.

If things go wrong, you can probably take 3-4-5 wins off that list, or more for UF and USCe.  I suppose each could fade to 7-5, or 6-6, injuries, distractions, losing close games.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: bamajoe on August 23, 2018, 01:34:28 PM

I can't see anyway Florida or South Carolina go 11 and 1. To do so would require SC to beat either Georgia or Clemson and Florida to beat either Georgia or FSU plus both teams beating everyone else. There is little chance of either happening.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 09:04:01 AM

Little chance = some chance, which in these cases means that the opponents cited turn out to be less good than expected, and everything falls into place for USCe and UF.

I do agree that 11-1 is a real stretch, perhaps 10-2 would be better.

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2018, 05:20:37 PM

Quote from: bamajoe on August 23, 2018, 01:34:28 PM

I can't see anyway Florida or South Carolina go 11 and 1. To do so would require SC to beat either Georgia or Clemson and Florida to beat either Georgia or FSU plus both teams beating everyone else. There is little chance of either happening.

Florida isn't likely to go 11-1, but look at it:
Florida should be 4-0 going into the Miss State game.  LSU follows at home.  If - IF - the offense is a normal, functioning offense, Florida beats MSU.  Once UF is 5-0, they will be favored in the rest of their games, except for the UGA game in Jax.
Florida is also unlikely to go 5-7, but they could.  The road trip to Starkville could easily be a loss, then another loss in a toss-up LSU game.  UGA and FSU would then likely be losses, and UF would hope for a split between Mizzou and USce, but could lose both.  
But saying there's no way Florida could go 11-1 is simply false.  

Title: Re: Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 25, 2018, 11:53:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 07:48:23 AM

Like LSU, it probably comes down to QB play, though most think Mullen is the better coach.

It's more about the OL for LSU than the QB.  I hate to deem a guy who's never played a down in the SEC a known quantity, but it's a pretty safe bet what he'll be.  He'll be "fine."  Similar to Danny Etling last year, who had (I think) the best efficiency in the conference and did a lot of things you want to see, yet still managed to be more or less non-threatening.  Nobody said "Oh crap, our defense faces Etling next week."  Burrow is almost certainly going to have a season that's "good enough" if everybody else does their job fairly well.  He's not going to be a force that makes things happen on his own or covers up for a lackluster line and/or receivers who struggle.  
The OL is a bigger concern.  There's a potential for a wild swing here.  They stand to be very good by the end of the year, maybe even hovering near the best lines in the league for next year's pre-season prognostications if everybody stays healthy and out of jail.  But they're going to struggle out of the gate this year.  I don't care how talented they are, they don't have enough starts and starts together to be a dominant unit.  Miami is a rough first test, the U was very good at collapsing the pocket and rushing the QB last year.  As the OL goes, this offense will go.  The WRs will be about like the QB, they'll be "fine" if the line allows things to happen.  They won't break any games open by themselves.  
If the line plays well, the offense will probably start "okay" and end the season up "pretty good."  If the line can't get it together the offense will be stuck in "Oh hey look, LSU's offense sucks again" until further notice.