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Topic: SEC Front Porch

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utee94

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #994 on: October 19, 2025, 06:17:17 PM »
Don’t be fooled. Barely won the game, defense didn’t even get on the plane apparently. I’m sure we’ll get blown out in Baton Rouge next week.
I think LSU is going to win that game but it won't be a blowout.

Winning on the road is hard, even against bad teams.  SEC grind and whatnot.

SEC types have been telling me this for the past 20 years, they can't abandon it now.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #995 on: October 20, 2025, 09:52:06 AM »
The only thing stopping A&M this weekend should be A&M getting in its own head about not having won in BR.  I won't be surprised if LSU has a bit of a bounce-back game and plays tough, but they're going to gift A&M a lot of chances.  If A&M is capable of accepting those gifts and not beating themselves, they should win.  LSU constantly finding new ways to shoot themselves in the foot is not just an out-of-control skid, at this point it's baked into the identity of the team.  They wouldn't look any different if they sat around planning ways to self-destruct.  

I think out of A&M, @Bama, @OU, I won't be surprised if LSU finds a way to win one of those.  Probably fair to say I'd be more surprised if they lose all three, as they should be expected to.  I'd be very surprised if they win two of those, but not one.  If I had to pick, I'd pick A&M, but it's not because I think LSU matches up favorably with them, or anything.  

But if Baker gets his head out of his arse and the Tigers get a few starters back, the LSU defense is still a lethal bunch who could make life hard for A&M.  Maybe enough to let this helpless, middle-school-caliber O-line max out it's 24 pt. capability and claw out a win.  

But.....if some key Tiger defensive guys remain out and/or Baker calls another game like that, A&M will win fairly easily.

  


utee94

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #996 on: October 20, 2025, 01:40:51 PM »
The Geaux Tigers have enough juice to beat the Ags at home.  If the game were in College Station I'd pick it the other way.

Just a reality, it's hard to win on the road.

The Ags struggled against the Pigs in Fayettenam, but in College Station I think that would have been an easy win.

Texas struggled against Kentucky in Lexington, but in Austin I think that game would have been a fairly easy win.

Heck, Georgia only beat Kentucky by 1 point last year in Lexington.  

CatsbyAZ

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #997 on: October 20, 2025, 02:01:05 PM »
With two losses already, Brian Kelly and his team are backed into a corner and will lash out like a wild beast. LSU's own fans will fill Death Valley readier to turn on Kelly than root for their own team (Both Brian Kelly and LSU fans deserve each other). This will make for an unpredictable game. If A&M can take an emotional Tigers team punch for punch into halftime, I like the Aggie's chances in the 2nd Half as the fans drunkenly begin unleashing their ire and discontent at the Tiger's sideline. Fans won't be angry at A&M - they will be turning on their own team for the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, looking at the rest Oklahoma's schedule :03:

 




utee94

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #998 on: October 20, 2025, 02:59:31 PM »
With two losses already, Brian Kelly and his team are backed into a corner and will lash out like a wild beast. LSU's own fans will fill Death Valley readier to turn on Kelly than root for their own team (Both Brian Kelly and LSU fans deserve each other). This will make for an unpredictable game. If A&M can take an emotional Tigers team punch for punch into halftime, I like the Aggie's chances in the 2nd Half as the fans drunkenly begin unleashing their ire and discontent at the Tiger's sideline. Fans won't be angry at A&M - they will be turning on their own team for the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, looking at the rest Oklahoma's schedule :03:

 





I don't know, man.  A night game.  @LSU.  The Ags haven't won in Baton Rouge since joining the SEC.  Average score of those games, LSU 36.2 TAMU 16.5

As for OU, the good news for them is that 3/5 of those games are at home.




MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #999 on: October 20, 2025, 04:25:41 PM »
Both Brian Kelly and LSU fans deserve each other

Rude.

You've clearly never been to an LSU game, met many of the amazing fans, and consumed the great food and participated in the fine hospitality you'd be offered if you had.  Many of them don't deserve the jackass that is BK.

Now, the contingent of the fanbase who bitched and moaned their way through the most successful period of LSU football history, as their team went on one the great runs in cfb, not just for LSU, but for anyone, and who could never do anything but complain about not winning by enough, not winning pretty enough, not being as successful as that school in Tuscaloosa, and focusing on everything but the excellent number of W's racked up, and who perpetually ignored the warnings of myself and others like me, that the "idiot" they despised would not be easily replaced and almost certainly not matched or surpassed anytime soon......those fans deserve Brian Kelly.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1000 on: October 20, 2025, 04:30:11 PM »
Just a reality, it's hard to win on the road.

Years ago I recall CD and ftbobs doing a little fact-finding with bob's database and confirming that the SEC home advantage wasn't what one would think.  Either SEC road teams had a winning % over whatever time frame they were looking at (maybe all-time?), or SEC road teams had a higher win% than found in other conference's road teams, or something.

Maybe CD would remember.  Whatever it was, it went against the notion that the SEC's big stadiums and crazy environments offered the home-field advantage we'd expect. 

I wish bob's database was still active.  It was a data gold mine. 

utee94

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1001 on: October 20, 2025, 04:30:53 PM »
Rude.

You've clearly never been to an LSU game, met many of the amazing fans, and consumed the great food and participated in the fine hospitality you'd be offered if you had.  Many of them don't deserve the jackass that is BK.

Now, the contingent of the fanbase who bitched and moaned their way through the most successful period of LSU football history, as their team went on one the great runs in cfb, not just for LSU, but for anyone, and who could never do anything but complain about not winning by enough, not winning pretty enough, not being as successful as that school in Tuscaloosa, and focusing on everything but the excellent number of W's racked up, and who perpetually ignored the warnings of myself and others like me, that the "idiot" they despised would not be easily replaced and almost certainly not matched or surpassed anytime soon......those fans deserve Brian Kelly. 

And such fans certainly aren't unique to LSU.  I've encountered fans like that from almost every college football team.  Even historically unsuccessful ones.  Heck, even the military academies.

utee94

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1002 on: October 20, 2025, 04:36:52 PM »
Years ago I recall CD and ftbobs doing a little fact-finding with bob's database and confirming that the SEC home advantage wasn't what one would think.  Either SEC road teams had a winning % over whatever time frame they were looking at (maybe all-time?), or SEC road teams had a higher win% than found in other conference's road teams, or something.

Maybe CD would remember.  Whatever it was, it went against the notion that the SEC's big stadiums and crazy environments offered the home-field advantage we'd expect. 

I wish bob's database was still active.  It was a data gold mine. 
Perhaps historically things were different, but right now there's plenty of evidence to prove it out that road wins are tougher to come by.  And it's getting worse with the mega-conferences and these long cross-country trips, rather than much more localized regional ones.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1003 on: October 20, 2025, 04:40:22 PM »
And such fans certainly aren't unique to LSU.  I've encountered fans like that from almost every college football team.  Even historically unsuccessful ones.  Heck, even the military academies.

I'm sure you're correct.  However, your point about how it also happens to fans of unsuccessful teams kind of underscores my beef with our fans.  Whereas many fans think they can have better with a different coach, LSU fans actually had better, and refused to see it.  I feel like there's a special penance you owe when you live the good life and refuse to be grateful for it.  Somehow, deliberately ignoring what you do have seems worse to me than merely being delusional about what you could have.

YMMV 

utee94

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1004 on: October 20, 2025, 04:45:44 PM »
"Fan" is short for fanatic.  I don't know of any fanatics that I'd describe as reasonable or non-delusional.

I guess for me it's a shoulder shrug.  Fans will be fans, no matter the team or its specific circumstances.

CWSooner

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1005 on: October 20, 2025, 06:13:40 PM »
. . . Meanwhile, looking at the rest Oklahoma's schedule :03:

 [img width=500 height=295.966]https://i.imgur.com/HPjmtUb.png[/img]
Not to whine or complain, but OU got pretty challenging conference schedules for 2024-25.

In 2024, OU's SEC opponents went 75-31 overall.

We did get a couple of breaks, though. We don't face Georgia and, this year, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.

Speaking of Georgia, I think I have detected a pattern to the Kirby Smart-era Dawgs. When they get down, as they occasionally do, they do not quit. You may think that your team has a pretty comfortable lead, but Kirby Smart is scheming and motivating, and the next thing you know, Georgia is back in the game.

Lincoln "Muleshoe" Riley learned this at the Rose Bowl after the 2017 season. OU scored just before halftime to go up 17 points, and Riley ordered up a pooch kickoff to preclude a big return. Quick as a flash, Georgia got in FG range and kicked a good one as time expired. That changed the character of the game. The 3-scores lead shrank to 2 scores, and Georgia had seized the momentum.

Just this season, I have seen Tennessee and Ole Miss surrender what seemed to be good leads and end up losing.

I don't like Kirby Smart, but I respect him. If you have him down, you've got to go ahead and kill him.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2025, 06:29:37 PM by CWSooner »
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CWSooner

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1006 on: October 20, 2025, 09:08:45 PM »
On the subject of the SEC HFA, OU's experience is that we have been able to lose at home and on the road with almost equal facility.

So far, home-field advantage does not seem to have heavily influenced our SEC record. Our SEC losses so far have been:

2024
Tennessee (H)
Texas (N)
S. Carolina (H)
Ole Miss (A)
Missouri (A)
LSU (A)

2025
Texas (N)
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jgvol

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Re: SEC Front Porch
« Reply #1007 on: October 20, 2025, 11:05:04 PM »
On the subject of the SEC HFA, OU's experience is that we have been able to lose at home and on the road with almost equal facility.

So far, home-field advantage does not seem to have heavily influenced our SEC record. Our SEC losses so far have been:

2024
Tennessee (H)
Texas (N)
S. Carolina (H)
Ole Miss (A)
Missouri (A)
LSU (A)

2025
Texas (N)

This will change as Oklahoma regains it’s footing. 

 

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