Can't know for sure, but based on what we can find out, it looks to me like Napier was their first choice. We can't know who is at the top of his list, but I do know Stricklin interviewed Napier first and then terminated the process. He liked how the interview went and offered him a job.
LSU on the other hand...harder to know. Speculation on my part, but I imagine it's disingenuous for the brass to say Riley was purely a smokescreen (they haven't said that, or anything, really, I'm speaking hypothetically). I believe the interest in Riley was real. jmo. I say that because if Kelly had been in the bag all along, I think they would've announced on Sunday. No good reason to wait til yesterday. That said, the people further up who have been claiming they were locked out of this process and that only 3 or 4 people really knew what was going on are now saying they have reason to believe Kelly was initially offered a while back but turned LSU down, and Woody came back to him harder when Riley moved on. IF that were the case, then in a sense, LSU would've gotten their "first choice."
Don't imagine we'll ever know. One thing Woodward has proven so far is he knows how to keep a much tighter lid on things than Alleva ever did.
The hire itself....well, I'm on record as liking Napier at Florida. He'll have to prove it at a major school, but he's young, likable, hungry, coached under some of the best, and just led Lafayette to probably their best run in history. Lot of upside there.
Kelly at LSU....I think he's a total dick, but I see some upside there too. He's the most accomplished football hire LSU has ever had, doing more at this point prior to coming than any previous LSU coach. No sure thing he's going to fit in around here, but he probably has a floor that's higher than what O has put us through the last two years. He's recruited ND about as well as you can for an unlikable area with no local talent pool, with tougher admission requirements than he'll have at LSU. Maybe he can get some better talent and clean up that dismal record against top 5 teams.