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Topic: Finis, the CG

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Cincydawg

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Finis, the CG
« on: November 27, 2023, 11:59:02 AM »
Winner goes to the CFP for sure.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2023, 12:12:06 PM »
Common Opponents (and yes, I know this usually means little):
                 Bama      UGA
Ole Miss     24-10      52-17  both at home
Tenn          34-20      38-10  Bama at home
UK             49-21      51-13  UGA at home
Auburn       27-24     27-20  both on the road

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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2023, 12:40:57 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2023, 11:59:02 AM
Winner goes to the CFP for sure.

I don't take that as a given at all.  If Washington, FSU, and Michigan remain undefeated and Texas wins the Big 12, no way does the committee put 1-loss Bama in over 1-loss Texas.  Michigan, and maybe even FSU, are likely to remain undefeated.  Washington certainly could.  I wouldn't consider this an unlikely scenario. 
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2023, 12:43:21 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2023, 12:12:06 PM
Common Opponents (and yes, I know this usually means little):
                Bama      UGA
Ole Miss    24-10      52-17  both at home
Tenn          34-20      38-10  Bama at home
UK            49-21      51-13  UGA at home
Auburn      27-24    27-20  both on the road

What I think we can conclude from this is that LSU destroyed Auburn, a team both Bama and UGA struggled with, and therefore LSU is obviously the best team in the SEC this year.  
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rolltidefan

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2023, 01:46:56 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 27, 2023, 12:40:57 PM
I don't take that as a given at all.  If Washington, FSU, and Michigan remain undefeated and Texas wins the Big 12, no way does the committee put 1-loss Bama in over 1-loss Texas.  Michigan, and maybe even FSU, are likely to remain undefeated.  Washington certainly could.  I wouldn't consider this an unlikely scenario. 
agreed, though it is hard for me to believe they leave out the sec altogether too. but in that scenario you kinda have to.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2023, 02:08:48 PM »
If the Tenn/Ole Miss version of Georgia shows up, they're going to win, maybe even big. 

If UGA farts around and has good plays called back for stupid holding penalties and things like that, they might not win. 

This is not a great Alabama team, but their roster is still undeniably more stacked with blue-chip prospects than any other team, including UGA, and there are occasionally flashes of them putting it together.  They're certainly talented enough to capitalize if UGA doesn't bring their A game.  

I think if UGA's corners hold up, they're going to win.  If not, Alabama might score enough to pull it off. 

On the other side, UGA just needs to execute.  If they have a bad day, Alabama can hold them to enough to let the offense hit a reasonable number.  If UGA fires on all cylinders, I don't think there's anything Bama can do to stop them.  Beck is seeing the field too well and distributing the ball to too many weapons. 

OTOH, Kirby Smart has more NCs than wins against Saban in Atlanta. 

This is for the narrative.  An Alabama win will signal that Saban and Bama still own the conference and the national landscape overall in a long-term sense.  A UGA win is going to signal that they've definitively replaced Bama as the Empire, and we're all paying our taxes to Athens now.  
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2023, 02:17:10 PM »
The Iron Bowl has me second guessing, tho.  Despite the fact I think UGA is objectively the better team, it's hard to look at Alabama and think anything other than they're magically blessed by the universe with the ability to stay alive, and all indications to the contrary are just to mess with everyone else and give them false hope.

The first thing you need is a L.  Texas is the beneficiary there.  That sets the stage for "This Alabama team isn't as good as years past" and then you follow that up with some ugly, close games.  Then you add in the fanbase melting down and acting like everything is over, forever.  It keeps the "we can beat them this year" mentality alive and makes it harder to notice that they keep winning and are still the most talented roster in cfb. 

Then you have a crappy Auburn team play them to the wire, which makes you feel justified in thinking they're overhyped and overrated this year.  But then you look at the refs which screwed Alabama every way they could think of in that game and kept AU alive probably past the point they should've been, and you look at how AU basically had the thing won, and what happens?  Auburn Auburns.  It's like the football gods are definitely on Alabama's side. 

So I'm calling for a UGA win because my head tells me they are the better team this year.  But I'm not feeling great about it.  UGA really needs to bring their A game and smash Bama's head into the ground early and often, because if they let them hang around, Bama is likely to pull this thing out of their ass.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2023, 02:20:07 PM »
Sure, the spread is 5 points, which is barely an apparent edge.  Turnovers, STs, even the coin toss, will all be relevant

Milroe is the biggest threat to UGA I think, if he gets loose.
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utee94

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2023, 02:52:18 PM »
No matter what, I think it's going to be a really fun and exciting game.  Well, for neutral 3rd party observers, anyway.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2023, 03:43:32 PM by utee94 »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2023, 08:42:20 AM »
I feel pessimistic (which is not unusual) ...

Bama 27
Dawgs 24

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utee94

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2023, 12:13:41 PM »
I think Georgia will pull it out late.

Georgia 31
Alabama 21
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nwms

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2023, 04:33:49 PM »
bama covers ga wins
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Cincydawg

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2023, 05:42:43 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 28, 2023, 08:42:20 AM
I feel pessimistic (which is not unusual) ...

Bama 27
Dawgs 24


Ugh.
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utee94

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Re: Finis, the CG
« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2023, 08:46:29 AM »
Well there you have it.

Congratulations to the 2023 SEC Champions-- the Texas Longhorns. ;)
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