I figure they have some reasonable shot against UK and Ole Miss and A&M, they should beat ULM. Arky and UF, probably not, they could spring an upset of course.
If they win out, they win the West unless Auburn does the same. Um, low prob there.
So, at 3-2, maybe they win 2 of the first 3 listed and find an upset with Florida? With ULM, they get to 7, but that looks improbable to me. A 6-6 season, which could be 5-7 easily enough, and you figure O is gOne.