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Topic: 8-Team Playoff...

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2017, 04:01:44 PM »
SLM, you got it wrong while citing the biggest argument against you:  the college basketball regular season.  Here, help me out - name the last big, costly loss in the NCAA basketball regular season for Kentucky.  For Duke.  For UNC.  For anyone.

Yeah, it's a trick question.  There is no such thing as a big loss in college basketball's regular season, because it doesn't mean anything.  Duke v. UNC means nothing besides bragging rights.  Literally nothing is genuinely at stake.  

Same with the first Auburn-UGA game this year in football.  Expanding to 8 would only increase the number of meaningless games.  It would increase rematches.  It would suck.  

“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2017, 04:04:56 PM »
If UCF wants equal access to a national championship, they need to play a big-boy schedule.  If that means moving to a better conference, then do it.  If that means doing a bunch of prerequisite stuff, then do it.  

No matter how good UCF actually is, it doesn't warrant serious playoff consideration because of its schedule.  They only played 2 fringe-ranked teams, and gave up 95 points in those 2 wins.  A playoff team's toughest test cannot be Memphis.  Plain and simple.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

SLM85VOL

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2017, 06:25:06 PM »
Uh, okay—just happened this week.  Thanks for making my point stronger Afro!  You seriously think that Wofford beating UNC on their floor doesn’t hurt UNC’s seeding and won’t help Wofford’s seeding in the tournament depending on how the rest of the season plays out.  If that loss by UNC is not made up by a long winning streak or winning their conference, that could be the difference between a number one seed (a very big deal) and a five or six seed, which does affect UNC’s chances of winning a national championship.  Unimpressive wins are one thing and bad losses are another.  Thus, the regular season means just as much if you look at it that way. That’s not only a humiliating loss for UNC, but it shows how any quality team is beatable on any given night especially with more parity across the country, which is why I agree that SOS should help determine seeding, but not keeping a team out entirely unless they don’t make the cut using all the criteria.
  

The committee is having to split hairs on only four teams in the entire country when there are too many differences in conferences, SOS and playing nine conference games versus eight, etc.  Plus, the way the selection process works now is insane to me.  “Here’s the way the fourth team was picked:  just ten committee members ranked the teams from 4-6. There were only ten committee members ranking the teams because three of the 13 committee members to my knowledge had to recuse themselves from voting — Ohio State and Clemson’s athletic directors because their two teams would be ranked inside the top six and former Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer because his son is on the Georgia coaching staff. This means there is the distinct possibility that the committee split, with five voting for Ohio State and five voting for Alabama in the fourth spot. If they split like this do you know how the tie is broken? THEY SIT IN THE ROOM AND ARGUE UNTIL SOMEONE CHANGES THEIR MIND.  It’s like being in a hung jury when everybody is ready to just go home and changes their vote to get out of there.  Seriously, this is the brilliant method we’ve selected to choose four playoff teams. One person could literally just change their mind and that’s how the playoff gets picked.  I trust the BCS more than that with computers as human beings have too much bias.

 Furthermore, if that isn’t crazy enough, here’s more — the ballots of the voters aren’t made public, which means the ten voters never have to allow their ballots to be seen publicly by college football fans across the country. So there is an incredible amount of corruption that could be in play here because we’re talking about tens of millions of dollars to the conference that makes the fourth playoff — either the SEC or the Big Ten.  
You think benefit of the doubt doesn’t matter when it comes to Alabama? You think the Big Ten’s Playoff flops in 2015 and 2016 didn’t factor in the subconscious of those committee members?   One can make a valid argument for either Alabama or Ohio State, but that’s the point—either way is splitting hairs when an eight game playoff would negate that.  Additionally, I hate the argument that well, if eight, then why not twelve?  As Aristotle’s golden mean dictates, finding the desirable middle between two extremes, one of excess and the other of deficiency works best.  The point is driven home to me when you look at arguments for both Ohio State and Alabama getting in or staying out: First, Vegas would likely favor Alabama by 5.5 over Ohio State on a neutral field. If the goal of the committee is to pick the best teams for the playoff — that’s literally their charged goal — shouldn’t the fact that Alabama would be nearly a touchdown favorite over Ohio State break any close tie?  Second, 11-1 Alabama has the same number of wins against teams with winning records as Ohio State, two more wins against teams going to bowl games, and its single loss will be demonstrably better than Ohio State’s two losses. Bama lost on the road to Auburn, a bitter conference rival, who is undoubtedly a top ten team. Ohio State lost to likely #2 seed Oklahoma at home by 15 and lost by 31 on the road to 7-5 Iowa.  Presently Ohio State has five wins against teams with winning records: Army, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin. Alabama also has five wins against teams with winning records right now: Fresno State, Colorado State, Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas A&M. (Florida State also finished 6-6, but what would the Seminole record have been without Deondre Francois’s injury? Since the committee considers quarterback injuries for Clemson, shouldn’t they also consider FSU with Francois? Remember, Alabama played FSU with Francois until late in the fourth quarter. FSU with Francois definitely finishes with a winning record, right? They lost games by 6, 4, and 3 this year with a true freshman quarterback. Plus, is it Alabama’s fault that a top five preseason FSU team ended up losing several tight games after their quarterback was injured? The Tide scheduled a challenging neutral site game, which the committee wants to encourage. So it’s not like Alabama dodged anyone on this schedule. In fact, they tried to challenge themselves, which is a clear directive from the committee).  Both teams also have three top wins against top 25 teams.  Thus, Alabama has the same number of wins against winning teams as Ohio State and fewer losses. Plus, their loss comes against a better team by fewer points.  Breaking down the numbers more fully, Alabama went 7-1 against bowl teams while Ohio State went go 5-2 against bowl teams. So Alabama played more bowl teams than Ohio State did and won more games against those bowl teams.  How about FBS teams in big five conferences with .500 or better records? Alabama went 5-1 against these opponents while Ohio State went 4-2.  Okay, how about records against FBS teams from big five conferences with winning records? Bama went 3-1, Ohio State went 4-2.  Finally, Ohio State lost by 15 to Oklahoma and 31 to 7-5 Iowa while Alabama lost by 12 at Auburn.  Put simply, Alabama’s record at the top is better and its record at the bottom isn’t as bad as Ohio State’s.  But Alabama didn’t even win its own division or its conference!  Maybe it’s a better conference; however, Alabama slid into the playoff by doing nothing. It was rewarded for losing to Auburn in a game that decided the SEC West title. And that’s simply not the way this process should work according to the committee that has said they favor conference champions all things being equal.  Was this committee really watching that 24-10 victory against LSU where Alabama actually got outgained 306-299 and thinking this is “unequivocally” one of the four best teams in the country? Were they really watching the Tide’s struggle in Starkville, Miss., and thinking this was the Alabama of old? Were they really watching them get pushed around in Auburn and thinking this is a team worth a second chance as a non-champion?   And, if you're going to mention that Alabama has more wins against bowl eligible teams and teams with winning records, you should also mention that Alabama's best win was against #17 LSU, while Ohio State now had two wins against top ten teams and Ohio State has wins against 3 teams ranked higher than LSU.  I see that we’re starting to veer in pretty significant ways from what the commissioners who created the playoff told us they wanted.” More playoff spots takes more bias out of the process because the margin of error is not so small.  Just my long-winded opinion and I know we aren’t going to agree as we’ve had this discussion before.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2017, 06:32:36 PM by SLM85VOL »
"Everyone thinks I'm the best damn coach in the country.  But he taught me everything I know.  I never beat him, but I learned a lot from playing him."  Bear Bryant on the General

SLM85VOL

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2017, 06:49:46 PM »
If UCF wants equal access to a national championship, they need to play a big-boy schedule.  If that means moving to a better conference, then do it.  If that means doing a bunch of prerequisite stuff, then do it.  

No matter how good UCF actually is, it doesn't warrant serious playoff consideration because of its schedule.  They only played 2 fringe-ranked teams, and gave up 95 points in those 2 wins.  A playoff team's toughest test cannot be Memphis.  Plain and simple.
Uhh, UCF is moving to a better conference.
"Everyone thinks I'm the best damn coach in the country.  But he taught me everything I know.  I never beat him, but I learned a lot from playing him."  Bear Bryant on the General

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2017, 09:40:39 PM »
I stopped reading after " that could be the difference between a number one seed (a very big deal) and a five or six seed".  

It's obvious you have some odd, skewed view of college basketball.  One game doesn't alter a team's seed by 4-5 spots...ever.  Ever.  The idea is nuts.


“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2017, 09:41:55 PM »
Uhh, UCF is moving to a better conference.
What does that have to do with 2017?  Thanks for the 2 face-palms, thirty seconds apart.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

SLM85VOL

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2017, 09:53:38 PM »
Whatever--I'm not going to provide overly simplistic answers to complex circumstances like you do constantly.  I'm not saying just one game would impact them to the degree that it would in college football under the same scenario.  I answered your trick question with a legit one that makes the point that the basketball season is not meaningless because of how the tournament is structured since there is a method to selection that is far superior than college football.  You sound like you don't understand how the seeding works.  SOS is important in college basketball just like football so they count wins and losses as well as who teams beat and lost to so that a loss to Wofford could drop UNC's RPI significantly if their record is not as good as the other teams in their league.  Of course--one loss to a crappy team won't make a difference if they win their league as I already stated or if they have a great year and that was one slip, but the point was that the season is important for how you seed, which impacts the teams you play in the tournament.  Higher seeds get easier opponents and you have to win them all versus two games in college football.  The one game is not as significant as the loss would obviously be if a Power 5 team lost to a mid-major such as when Michigan lost to App State because that would knock them out from the start by dropping their ranking and there are many more basketball games compared to a football schedule.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2017, 11:10:06 PM by SLM85VOL »
"Everyone thinks I'm the best damn coach in the country.  But he taught me everything I know.  I never beat him, but I learned a lot from playing him."  Bear Bryant on the General

SLM85VOL

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2017, 10:06:51 PM »
What does that have to do with 2017?  Thanks for the 2 face-palms, thirty seconds apart.
Not every program can get into a Power 5 Conference, which is another reason why the NCAA Tournament is more fair.  Nevertheless, You said, "If UCF wants equal access to a national championship, they need to play a big-boy schedule.  If that means moving to a better conference, then do it.  If that means doing a bunch of prerequisite stuff, then do it."  To which I said they are doing it.  Obviously they couldn't get it done this year so it has nothing to do with 2017 other than they did all they could do, but it takes time.
"Everyone thinks I'm the best damn coach in the country.  But he taught me everything I know.  I never beat him, but I learned a lot from playing him."  Bear Bryant on the General

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #22 on: December 22, 2017, 10:26:45 PM »
Right, so in 2017, with their high school schedule, they don't warrant a playoff spot.  Not in a 4-team, not in an 8-team, not in a box, not with a fox.  Not here or there, not anywhere.  

“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #23 on: December 22, 2017, 10:29:32 PM »
Wofford beating UNC was an ESPN.com cover story for about 3 hours on a slow day.  When UNC finishes the year 24-6 and gets a top 2 seed, who they lost to won't matter.  One game out of 30 doesn't decide anything.  The difference between a 2 seed and a 6 seed in the tournament is 16 teams, you realize that, right?  16 positions or spots of difference.  1 loss to the Deaf & Blind kids won't cause a drop that far come tourney time, sorry.

“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

SLM85VOL

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #24 on: December 22, 2017, 10:41:04 PM »
Right, so in 2017, with their high school schedule, they don't warrant a playoff spot.  Not in a 4-team, not in an 8-team, not in a box, not with a fox.  Not here or there, not anywhere.  
Maybe not Dr. Seuss.  But, try to look at UCF in the theoretical as an example rather than their specifc record, which means that a larger playoff pool such as 8 teams could accomodate a team that would have been out, but now may be in.  It's really not that hard a concept so just forget it.
"Everyone thinks I'm the best damn coach in the country.  But he taught me everything I know.  I never beat him, but I learned a lot from playing him."  Bear Bryant on the General

SLM85VOL

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2017, 11:00:18 PM »
Wofford beating UNC was an ESPN.com cover story for about 3 hours on a slow day.  When UNC finishes the year 24-6 and gets a top 2 seed, who they lost to won't matter.  One game out of 30 doesn't decide anything.  The difference between a 2 seed and a 6 seed in the tournament is 16 teams, you realize that, right?  16 positions or spots of difference.  1 loss to the Deaf & Blind kids won't cause a drop that far come tourney time, sorry.
If it worked out exactly like that, but you don't know that do you!  UNC probably will win 22 games this year, but what if they win 20?  That’s not a great record going into the Tourney as bubble teams had that many last year and didn’t get in.  No sparky--that is a foolish way to view the difference between a 2 seed and a 6 seed by a long shot!!!  Stats show the probabilities:  No. 2 seeds are still 120-8 all time against No. 15 seeds while No. 6 seeds have won 64 percent of the meetings overall, but the past seven years tell a very different story. The No. 11s have won seven of 12 meetings the past three tourneys, and hold a 15-13 advantage since 2010. In that span, only once have the No. 6 seeds won a majority of the matchups and only once since 2000 have the No. 6 seeds won all four meetings with 11 seeds in a single tournament.  Therefore, it’s totally obvious to the casual observer and even the brain dead that a six seed’s chances of winning a national championship pales in comparison to a 2 seed by a magnitude beyond your capability to understand.  Your either careless or brain dead—not sure which.  Go back to read the long post you skipped to get up to speed on how the tourney works and the math behind it.  Again, you oversimplify the argument.  Anyway, it’s been a blast from the past!  Gotta run………..
« Last Edit: December 22, 2017, 11:09:33 PM by SLM85VOL »
"Everyone thinks I'm the best damn coach in the country.  But he taught me everything I know.  I never beat him, but I learned a lot from playing him."  Bear Bryant on the General

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #26 on: December 23, 2017, 12:27:20 AM »
You're extrapolating UNC losing to Wofford out to a higher seed wins more often than a lower seed in the tournament.  What?!?  

Let's ask 10 people if the UNC-Wofford game was a "big" game.  Upsets happen.  

What your win% by seed ignores is movement within seedings - UNC can go 24-6 and get a 2 seed, but would've gotten the highest 2 ssed if it went 25-5 (beating Wofford) and been placed in the regional with the weakest 1 seed.  Yes, it's convoluted, but it's equally as convoluted as what you've already stated.

My point is that UNC vs. Wofford in early December wasn't a "big game", couldn't be a big game, and will never be a big game.  Because it's one game in the NCAA basketball regular season.  You're on the wrong end of the spectrum - the argument FOR big games (and the importance of) in the regular season are the big-time programs playing each other.  Yet none of us has any idea the last top 5 team Kansas has beaten or the last regular season loss Duke had at home to a top 10 team.  

Because each regular season game is completely meaningless - the huge upsets, the 30-point wins, the rivalry games, and even top 10 match-ups.  It's all garbage.  If college football goes to an 8-team playoff or 16 or whatever, the regular season will become irrelevant and people will only care about the playoff, a la the NCAA tournament.  College basketball matters in March only.  People watch in March only.  People pay attention in March only.

So please, let's add more playoff teams to guarantee college football will only matter in December.  So people will only watch exclusively in December.  Will be noteworthy only in December.  It'll be great.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2017, 12:31:08 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

SLM85VOL

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Re: 8-Team Playoff...
« Reply #27 on: December 23, 2017, 12:58:21 AM »
You're extrapolating UNC losing to Wofford out to a higher seed wins more often than a lower seed in the tournament.  What?!?  

Let's ask 10 people if the UNC-Wofford game was a "big" game.  Upsets happen.  

What your win% by seed ignores is movement within seedings - UNC can go 24-6 and get a 2 seed, but would've gotten the highest 2 ssed if it went 25-5 (beating Wofford) and been placed in the regional with the weakest 1 seed.  Yes, it's convoluted, but it's equally as convoluted as what you've already stated.

My point is that UNC vs. Wofford in early December wasn't a "big game", couldn't be a big game, and will never be a big game.  Because it's one game in the NCAA basketball regular season.  You're on the wrong end of the spectrum - the argument FOR big games (and the importance of) in the regular season are the big-time programs playing each other.  Yet none of us has any idea the last top 5 team Kansas has beaten or the last regular season loss Duke had at home to a top 10 team.  

Because each regular season game is completely meaningless - the huge upsets, the 30-point wins, the rivalry games, and even top 10 match-ups.  It's all garbage.  If college football goes to an 8-team playoff or 16 or whatever, the regular season will become irrelevant and people will only care about the playoff, a la the NCAA tournament.  College basketball matters in March only.  People watch in March only.  People pay attention in March only.

So please, let's add more playoff teams to guarantee college football will only matter in December.  So people will only watch exclusively in December.  Will be noteworthy only in December.  It'll be great.
Your biggest problem I've noticed from past discussions is that you don't define terms.  It was a "HUGE" game for Wofford, which was probably why UNC lost.  LOL  Ten people is hardly a large sample size, but who cares anyway.  It was only a BIG game to UNC after they lost.  Laughing again!  From personal experience, I hated losing more than I liked winning.  Also, I'm not extrapolating anything since I already said that UNC will likely have a good year and was using them as an example of what could happen IF they had a mediocre season and how that would show up in the NCAA Tourney if it did.  You are clueless about college basketball.  The national sports media is calling this the worst loss in UNC school history, which explains why UNC dropped ten spots in the top 25.  Yeah, it's only one loss and upsets happen and you have no idea how a selection committee will view a number 4th ranked team losing to a 196th ranked team at HOME!   Lots of cool embarrassing stats:  It was Wofford's first victory against a top 25 opponent in program history. Wofford was 0-23 before Wednesday night.  Wofford is (8-4) in a crappy conference.  People like you watch in March only, but the selection committee looks at the body of work for the season.  Stop talking basketball since you don't know what you are talking about.  Go easy on the bong dude.  Adding four more college playoff games will result in people only watching in December.  I can't stop laughing.  I don't know if you struggle with analogies or you just are completley black or white with no gray type person. You sound like the type who didn't want to change to the BCS--just stick with the AP poll dammit!  You're not alone.  When we were only six years into the BCS, most ADs thought it was a little too early to scrap the BCS and most of the national sports media agreed with that. Then you likely struggled with more change by going to a four team playoff, but I bet you didn't know that the original proposal in 2009 was for an 8 team playoff.  I get it.  Change is hard for you and you are a purist until after the change takes place and then you love it.  I would bet you $1,000 today that if they went to an 8 team playoff, you would watch every playoff game (only four games) and you still would watch the big games during the regular season and I would win cuz I'm a winner.                                                                                  

:72:
« Last Edit: December 23, 2017, 01:47:00 AM by SLM85VOL »
"Everyone thinks I'm the best damn coach in the country.  But he taught me everything I know.  I never beat him, but I learned a lot from playing him."  Bear Bryant on the General

 

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