Key stats that will define Woodley-Till at UFC 228

11:02 am | September 6, 2018 | Go to Source | Author:

1:29 PM ET

Richard Mann

In the main event of UFC 228, welterweight champion Tyron Woodley will put his title on the line against Darren Till. The two fighters come from different backgrounds and employ contrasting styles. These differences clearly come across in terms of their career statistics.

The following is a breakdown of the statistical categories that best highlight those differences and could turn out to be the determining factors on Saturday.

Striking differential

While both fighters have built successful careers due in large part to their striking, neither fighter has really distanced himself from his opponents overall. Striking differential measures both striking output and striking absorption on a per-minute basis. In simpler terms, it is the number of significant strikes landed per minute minus the number of significant strikes absorbed per minute. Both Woodley (+0.13) and Till (+0.05) have barely landed more than they have taken up to this point.

In his last five fights, Woodley’s striking differential has tipped up somewhat to +0.52. During the stretch, his offense has remained mostly constant, but his defense has noticeably improved. Before facing Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 183 in 2015, Woodley had absorbed 2.70 significant strikes per minute. During his recent five-fight stretch, he dropped that rate by 37 percent and allowed his opponents to land only 1.70 significant strikes per minute.

Till also has respectable numbers when it comes to striking defense. For his UFC run, he has absorbed 2.60 significant strikes per minute. However, that number does not entirely do him justice. Till absorbed 84 significant strikes against Nicolas Dalby in a fight that ultimately went to a draw. Those 84 significant strikes represent 66 percent of the strikes Till has absorbed in the Octagon. Outside of that fight, Till has absorbed only 1.94 significant strikes per minute.

The bottom line here is that both of these fighters are strong in terms of defensive striking and regularly engage in even striking battles. All signs appear to point toward a close and perhaps even controversial decision.

Clinch fighting

One of the ways Woodley could distinguish himself from Till on Saturday would be striking in the clinch and on the ground. During his UFC and Strikeforce career, the welterweight champion has landed half of his significant strikes while at distance, 30 percent in the clinch and 20 percent on the ground. Like most fighters, Till has done the vast majority of his striking at distance (70 percent). By forcing the action into the clinch or onto the ground, Woodley would give himself the advantage. Not only does he have the better striking track record in those positions, but also Till has had issues in the clinch in his previous fights. In his UFC career, 31 percent of the significant strikes he has absorbed have come in the clinch.

Being able to control the setting of a fight is a valuable asset in MMA. If Woodley is able to impose his desired position, he should be able to outland his opponent and take the edge in the fight.

Takedowns

Woodley wrestled at the University of Missouri, where he was a two-time All-American. For the majority of his MMA career, Woodley has remained committed to his wrestling roots and employed a takedown-based approach. For his UFC and Strikeforce career, he has landed 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. However, in his more recent fights, he has been much more reticent to take the fight to the ground. In his last five fights, he has attempted only three takedowns. If the champion hopes to revert to his early career strategy, he might have some trouble bringing Till to the floor.

Till has shown strong takedown defense during his six-fight UFC career. He has been taken down only three times and successfully defended 83 percent of his opponent’s attempts. Then again, it is important to point out that Till has not faced someone with a wrestling background comparable to Woodley’s. On top of that, Woodley does not necessarily need to score takedowns to have an influence on the fight. During his career, he has been able to get the clinch and impose his will from that position.

If the champion decides to take this fight to the ground or initiate the clinch, he will likely be successful. Woodley has shown in his UFC/Strikeforce career that he has the ability to dictate where a fight takes place. Till has displayed strong defensive wrestling during his UFC career, so he might be able to give Woodley fits. However, the challenger’s best approach should be to score as often as possible when the bout is at distance.

Power striking

One of the most exciting aspects of MMA is the fact that the fight can end at any time. That is certainly the case in this fight. Both Woodley and Till possess the type of striking power that can finish fights. Woodley has landed 0.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes, while Till has landed 0.74. Till has scored a knockdown in four of his six UFC fights, and Woodley has scored at least one knockdown in eight of his 11 fights since joining the UFC in 2013. Both fighters are coming off 25-minute decisions, but there is a good chance this fight does not reach the final bell.