Lowe: How Kawhi and the Raptors can compete in a must-win Game 4

The notion that Milwaukee is getting much better looks than Toronto does not quite hold up, either, per Second Spectrum data. Milwaukee’s expected effective-field goal percentage, based on the location of each shot and nearby defenders: 52.8 percent. Toronto’s: 51 percent.

(My hunch is that understates the shot quality difference a bit. Toronto is getting zilch around the basket. Meanwhile, for all the bellyaching about Toronto missing open 3-pointers, they have actually outshot Milwaukee from deep — 35 percent to 29.5 percent. Both teams are underperforming those expected field-goal percentages, but Milwaukee is underperforming to a slightly larger degree. Also: Second Spectrum does not take into account which specific player attempts each shot.

You could spin these numbers a few ways. To me, they reveal Milwaukee getting better looks on a level that matters, but not in total blowout fashion.)

Where Milwaukee has destroyed Toronto: in transition. It was the Bucks’ only source of reliable offense for much of Game 3, and a lot of that damage from the Raptors’ perspective was self-inflicted. Toronto too often failed to match up, letting good shooters — Brogdon, Connaughton, Hill — walk into trailing 3s. Powell and Serge Ibaka, standing next to each other, inexplicably decided Powell should take Antetokounmpo in semi-transition late in the first quarter; Antetokounmpo drove baseline, drew a triple-team, and kicked to Nikola Mirotic for an open 3-pointer. (Mirotic is 4-of-20 from deep in this series, and shooting just 31 percent on 3s in the playoffs.)

Some transition leakage against Milwaukee is inevitable. Antetokounmpo rampaging at you, shooters on all sides, is legitimately frightening, and frightened defenders are prone to make dumb mistakes. But Toronto can clean this up. If they do, the Bucks have to prove they can score against the Raptors’ set defense.

But at least the Bucks have enjoyed some stretches when things looked easy — moments when they could breathe. Toronto has scored just 99 points per possession in this series, five points worse than the league’s brickiest offense this season (what up, Knicks!). Every basket has been exhausting.

Everywhere the Raptors turn, they see multiple enemy bodies and outstretched arms.

(Milwaukee’s arms are an underrated part of its defense. Arms are the low-hanging fruit of good defense. Raise them up, stretch them out, wave them in the air — even if you just don’t care — and you are automatically 10 percent improved. In the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Raptors ran a Kyle Lowry/Leonard pick-and-roll on the left side. Hill chased Lowry over the pick; Middleton dipped away from Leonard to clog up Lowry’s drive. Leonard popped open behind the arc. Lowry picked up his dribble to pass to him. Hill leaped with his arms stretched over his head. Lowry had to lob the ball more than 10 feet in the air. That gave Middleton time to recover. The possession died.

You want to know if a player cares about defense? Watch his arms. There is no 100 percent effective cure for slow feet or low-IQ, but anyone can raise their arms.)

Middleton and Brogdon have blanketed Leonard. Their ball denial — arms in passing lanes — is textbook. A half-dozen times per game, Toronto aborts a Leonard dribble handoff because Middleton plants himself between Leonard and the ball. That should open up backdoor cuts, and perhaps Toronto needs to try more of those. But when Leonard (or anyone else) goes that route, helpers — Lopez on Gasol up high, Antetokounmpo lurking off of Siakam — close passing lanes before they open.

Middleton’s relentless work may be taking a toll on his offense — he’s averaging 11 points per game on 33 percent shooting — which only deepens your appreciation for the challenge Leonard has ahead of him.

The Raptors are trying to unlock some off-the-dribble 3s for Leonard and Lowry — or at least extended the runway — by having Gasol and Ibaka screen for them near half court:

Milwaukee’s perimeter defenders are slithering around those picks. Toronto’s two best players have no room to pull up.

The Raptors have often defaulted into Leonard going one-on-everyone from the top of the arc. They are not going to win that way. Milwaukee’s defense is too good. The Bucks help at just the right moment — at the last minute, so that Leonard is already in shooting mode, but never too late. When they telegraph their help, Leonard either sees available passes too late or ignores them. He is not a think-two-steps-ahead playmaker who manipulates defenses into yielding the passes they are geared to prevent. He rarely throws the pass they don’t expect.

Leonard passes as a last resort, and it is hard to make productive passes that way against a defense this locked in. Leonard has 52 assists against 47 turnovers in the playoffs — and nine dimes to 10 turnovers against Milwaukee. This isn’t really a knock. It’s hard to be all-world at everything.

Toronto has scored just 0.79 points per Leonard isolation, per Second Spectrum. Most end in leaning midrange jumpers. The Raptors cannot even see the rim. Only 19 percent of their attempts in the half court have come within the restricted area, a mark that would have ranked dead last for the season by a mile.

It is tempting to suggest the Raptors should get the ball to Leonard more in the post. They’ve tried! Middleton and Brogdon have done a great job “three-quartering” Leonard — riding his left shoulder, and denying the entry pass without full-on fronting:

Leonard has had to surrender, scramble outside, and accept the ball 25 feet from the basket. Tough sledding.

Toronto has to make Leonard’s life easier. Springing him for quick-hitting post-ups can be part of that. Run him off some picks — cross-screens under the rim — and hope he can seal his defender. That will work now and then, but the Bucks are ready for it.

Toronto flashed some healthy methods of attack in Game 3. One favorite — and keep your eye on Gasol along the left wing: