Daily notes: Pitcher projections and hitter ratings for Friday

6:02 pm | April 4, 2019 | Go to Source | Author:

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With some colder-weather clubs having their home openers on Thursday, only a dozen games are scheduled for Friday, a day usually featuring a full slate. The shortened docket makes it a little harder to unearth streamers, especially on the hitting side of the ledger. Maybe it is just the schedule and matchups, but several would-be options narrowly eclipsed the 50 percent threshold used to identify candidates.

As such, if you play in a 10-team or even 12-team league, it’s worth doing a little extra work since there are some good players to roster in about 60 percent of ESPN leagues — and possibly in yours.

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Pitching

Pitchers to stream

Brandon Woodruff (R), rostered in 18 percent of ESPN leagues, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs’ lineup is potent, and Miller Park is a great place to hit, but Woodruff is emerging as a quality MLB starter. In his first start, Woodruff maintained the excellent velocity displayed last season working mostly as a reliever as he averaged 96 mph on 42 heaters, touching 98.

Pablo Lopez (R), 6 percent, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves: Lopez is one of the Marlins’ impressive sophomore hurlers. He allowed three runs to the Rockies in his first start, but if he continues to fan seven with no walks in 5 1/3 innings, the results no doubt will improve.

Trent Thornton (R), 1 percent, Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians: Until they prove otherwise, the Indians’ lineup shouldn’t be feared to the level of the past few campaigns. Part of it is the absence if Francisco Lindor, but they’re also weak behind the plate in the outfield. Thornton is a relative unknown, but that’s to his advantage, especially since he has a deceptive delivery, likely to keep lineups off balance. In his MLB debut, the 25-year-old punched out eight Tigers in five scoreless frames.

Felix Pena (R), 1 percent, Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers: Consider this the deep-league special, with the allure being a Rangers lineup visiting one of the toughest-hitting venues in the league. Pena struggled in his inaugural 2019 effort, surrendering four runs to the Athletics in just 3 2/3 innings. Last season, Pena fanned a respectable 85 in 92 2/3 stanzas. Texas has power, but there’s also a lot of swing-and-miss in its lineup.

Pitchers to avoid

Kenta Maeda (R), 81 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies: I’m admittedly obstinate when it comes to Coors Field. The perception is altitude aids power — and it does — however, the vast expanse of the outfield aids base hits, hence run scoring even more. To put things in perspective, Coors Field turns a 3.50 ERA into 4.20. Maybe German Marquez, Jon Gray or Kyle Freeland proves me wrong, but Coors Field is undefeated, thus I avoid all starters, visitors as well as Rockies.

Bullpen

Just as we thought we knew the answer, Boston manager Alex Cora changed the question. After giving Matt Barnes the first Red Sox save chance, Cora called upon Barnes to retire Khris Davis to end seventh on Wednesday night, then sent him out for the eighth, leaving the ninth for Ryan Brasier after the Red Sox grabbed the lead. Barnes should still log the bulk of Boston’s saves, but it appears Cora won’t hesitate to use him earlier if the situation dictates.

Projected game scores

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Hitting

Catcher

Austin Barnes (R), 38 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (LHP Tyler Anderson): Barnes is seeing the ball well so far, slamming two homers and a double in the early going. Add in enjoying the platoon edge in Coors Field, and Barnes is one of the top plays of the day.

First base

Mitch Moreland (L), 6 percent, Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Zack Godley): Steve Pearce is back, so look for Moreland to fall back into a platoon. With a righty on the hill, Moreland gets the nod versus Godley, who is prone to giving up extra base hits, right up Mitchy Two-Bags’ alley.

Second base

Adam Frazier (L), 36 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (RHP Sonny Gray): Maybe it was more than the New York spotlight ailing Gray. The newly acquired Reds hurler lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his senior circuit debut, issuing four free passes without a strikeout. Frazier quietly posted a .890 OPS after the break last season.

Third base

Brian Anderson (R), 49 percent, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (RHP Kevin Gausman): Given almost all of the damage was done in Camden Yards, Gausman has served up 83 homers over the past three seasons, tied for ninth most in the game.

Shortstop

Orlando Arcia (R), 1 percent, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (LHP Jose Quintana): If Arcia hit higher in the lineup, he would be even more attractive. He responded well last season after the Brewers sent him down, especially during their playoff run. With the platoon edge in a powerful lineup, the poor hitting spot is mostly mitigated.

Corner infield

Christian Walker (R), 20 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello): Walker was in line to play against southpaw pitching, but with Jake Lamb on the shelf, he’s likely to man first base against right-handers as well. Walker has always had pop; contact is his issue. Like the rest of the Red Sox staff, the lack of spring innings has Porcello a bit behind.

Middle infield

Daniel Descalso (L), 1 percent, Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (RHP Brandon Woodruff): The Cubs surprisingly sent Ian Happ to Triple-A to begin 2019, leaving the keystone to Descalso and Ben Zobrist. Woodruff is tough, but middle infield in general is as loaded as it has been in recent seasons, even more so than corner. Take the platoon edge and hope the Cubs can get to Woodruff.

Outfield

Steven Duggar (L), 2 percent, San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Tyler Glasnow): At least early on, Duggar has been hitting leadoff while Kevin Pillar hits out of the 6-hole. At a lanky 6-foot-9, Glasnow has trouble controlling the running game.

Josh Reddick (L), 5 percent, Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics (RHP Frankie Montas): As usual, Reddick is a popular choice in this space, as you’ll often want a piece of the staunch Astros lineup and most of his teammates are on a roster already. Montas stifled the Angels in his first start, though for his career he has struggled with the long ball.

Tyler O’Neill (R), 5 percent, St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres (LHP Nick Margevicius): O’Neill was already someone to have on your radar, but with Marcell Ozuna hurt, you want him on your roster. The former Mariners prospect has an intriguing power/speed combo, but like many youngsters, he needs to make better contact.

Hitter matchup ratings

Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s history (three years’ worth) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.

Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.

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