Daily notes: Pitcher projections and hitter ratings

3:02 am | April 2, 2019 | Go to Source | Author:

5:59 PM ET

  • Paul Sporer

Welcome to my first daily notes of the season! I’m excited to get back into the Tuesday groove, though it’s weird that we’re no longer guaranteed a full slate.

Tuesdays and Fridays used to be the locked-in weekdays with full slates, but this season’s new schedule is scattering off days all over the place. For this week specifically, perhaps we could’ve used those extra games to thicken up the pitching slate! It is rough in terms of streamable options, but there also aren’t a ton of aces … so that means we should find some nice bats.

With that said, let’s take a look at Tuesday’s slate in terms of streamable hitters and pitchers.

Pitching

Marcus Stroman (R), rostered in 50 percent of ESPN leagues, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: Stroman decimated a horrific Tigers lineup that wound up fanning an obscene 33 percent of the time in the series. The schedule gods are blessing the Stro Show with a two-step against Baltimore and Cleveland this week, after the O’s fanned 26 percent of the time against the Yankees and the Indians were the league’s worst at a vomit-inducing 39 percent against the Twins. These are tiny samples, but even if we ignore the stats for a moment, it’s clear that these lineups are weak, especially the Baltimore one for us on Tuesday.

Two factors from Stroman’s debut I’m keeping an eye are the decreased used of his sinker (44 percent would be a career low) and his funneling that usage into his breaking ball, which was at 35 percent. The only way he’s going to jump that strikeout rate is to focus more on his slider, so one would hope that continues and he fans several Orioles.

Eric Lauer (L), 12 percent, San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Lauer was a notable prospect who sputtered upon arrival last year before posting a 1.07 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his final 25⅓ innings with 25 strikeouts. He debuted with six scoreless against the hapless Giants, and while the Diamondbacks are definitely a tougher lineup, they aren’t really one to fear. Lauer being a southpaw could put Jake Lamb on the bench and gives him the advantage against lefty-swinging David Peralta.

Zach Eflin (R), 17 percent, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: An impressive arsenal made Eflin an intriguing sleeper in some leagues, but he’s still widely available for those more interested in playing the wait-and-see game. The 25-year old right-hander added nearly two ticks to his fastball, with a 94.3 mph heater, and amplified his slider usage to 25 percent en route to a career year. A 4.36 ERA/1.30 WHIP combo isn’t much of a career year, though, so the Phillies are hoping he can do more and come close to his 3.80 FIP this year. He draws a tough debut in Washington, but the light slate of stream-worthy starters puts us in this position to gamble. Eflin is one of those guys who might be only so-so in this start but still worth keeping for his future outings.

Bullpen

Keep a close eye on the Twins’ bullpen usage. The fantasy pick was Trevor May because of his skills, but Minnesota might see him as its best reliever and thus want him in that fireman role, where he will be called upon to put up the biggest fire regardless of inning. That would leave the closing duties to Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers, a righty/lefty combo, respectively. The Royals have two lefties, but also two switch-hitters, so unless the ninth sets up to feature Alex Gordon and Ryan O’Hearn, it could be Parker handling save opportunities in this series.

Projected game scores

Hitting

Catcher

Austin Barnes (R), 20 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (LHP Madison Bumgarner): Barnes was a major breakout pick in 2018 after an excellent 102 games in 2017. He was a massive flop as Yasmani Grandal took the job and ran with it. It might’ve been hard for Barnes to go off even if his performance had come together given how good Grandal was, but Barnes made it easy with a brutal .619 OPS. Now he’s the unencumbered starter behind the dish in L.A., off to a fast start, and does his best work against lefties. He could definitely wind up as a top-10 catcher and become a must-roster in one-catcher leagues.

First base

Wilmer Flores (R), 32 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (LHP Eric Lauer): Yes, I am going against one of my pitchers here. Welcome to the Paul Sporer edition of daily notes. The thinking is that this isn’t necessarily a DFS lineup, but rather a group of streamers you can pick and choose from so there can be some overlap. Plus, there’s definitely a plausible scenario where Lauer pitches well and Flores still hits. Flores has been known for decimating lefties in his career, so despite an off year against them in 2018 (.610 OPS), he still has a .774 career mark against southpaws.

Second base

Jeff McNeil (L), 29 percent, New York Mets at Miami Marlins (RHP Jose Urena): Some early injuries have cleared a path for McNeil, and he’s off to a fast start after doing a great job in 63 games last season. In his abbreviated career, he has a filthy .352/.403/.489 line against righties. Urena has been hittable throughout his career, allowing 8.8 hits per nine innings, including nine in his season debut against Colorado.

Third base

Jeimer Candelario (S), 11 percent, Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (RHP Masahiro Tanaka): Candelario was having a great start to his first full season last year when a wrist injury shelved him and then seemed to linger over the rest of his season, sapping his power. Once again healthy, Candy looks like a solid 20-home run threat with good plate skills and some batting average upside. He jump-started his season with a five-hit game Sunday, too. Batting from the left side of the plate at Yankee Stadium against a homer-happy pitcher like Tanaka adds to his chances for a long ball, too.

Shortstop

Tim Beckham (R), 58 percent, Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Trevor Cahill): The roster rate is soaring for the American League Player of the Week, but I figured we could sneak a recommendation in before he pushes the 70 percent mark. Beckham did some things in a half-season with Baltimore back in 2017, but then languished through a 97-game effort with a groin strain sitting him down for two months. He obviously won’t keep up this absurd pace, but I can’t envision a scenario where we should fear Cahill slowing him down.

Corner infield

Brian Anderson (R), 51 percent, Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (LHP Jason Vargas): Who’d have thought we’d get a Marlin in here? Thankfully the Marlins are facing the Mets’ worst starter in Vargas. He allowed an All Star-caliber .284/.337/.511 line to righties last year with 15 homers in just 308 plate appearances. Anderson managed only a .751 OPS off southpaws last season and even went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts against Vargas. Watch me spit in the face of batter vs. pitcher data and go with him anyway!

Middle infield

Garrett Hampson (R), 16 percent, Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Blake Snell): Keep an eye on the lineup because Hampson might not be playing, and he draws Snell even if he does get the start, but the pool is light at middle infield and I wanted to use this an opportunity to talk about rostering Hampson in the longer term. With Daniel Murphy‘s injury, Hampson should’ve gone right into the lineup with Ryan McMahon, but the Rockies are obsessed with Mark Reynolds so it’ll be more a gradual process. For me, Hampson is simply the best man for the job.

He and McMahon had brilliant springs, but both couldn’t get jobs because of the team’s last two big signings: Murphy and Ian Desmond. Neither is inherently bad (well, Desmond hasn’t been great, but Colorado couldn’t foresee him becoming a 60 percent ground ball guy), but the Rockies seem to always block off their young talent. It’s a bummer that Murphy got hurt, but the silver lining could be Hampson getting a chance.

Outfield

Jorge Soler (R), 20 percent, Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Jose Berrios): Soler was fantastic in 61 games last year before a fractured toe ended his season in mid-June. Expectations have been high throughout his career and he may finally be fully ready to cash in on his talent. The Berrios matchup isn’t juicy, but this is more to highlight Soler as someone for the long term.

Chad Pinder (R), 3 percent, Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale): Speaking of tough matchups, Pinder draws Sale. Although the Mariners weren’t afraid of Sale in the slightest. Pinder has crushed lefties throughout his career with a 104-point platoon split, yielding an .805 OPS. The Matt Olson injury seemed to open the path for Pinder, but then the A’s traded for Kendrys Morales and blocked him off again. I guess they’ve been studying the Rockies’ playbook of blocking young, intriguing talent.

Clint Frazier (R), 1 percent, New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Jordan Zimmermann): I hate to use the word “benefactor” with regard to an injury because injuries always stink, but Frazier did get the call in light of the Giancarlo Stanton move to the injured list. The former top prospect has battled injuries of his own but looks healthy and should get some burn. Zimmermann was sharp in his debut, but hasn’t proved himself as a starter to run from in any capacity yet.

Hitter matchup ratings

Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s history (three years’ worth) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.

Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.

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