Virginia rebounded from its Saturday loss to Duke by winning at North Carolina on Monday. See how the Cavaliers fared in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket.
Too many potential tournament teams are under .500 in conference play.
Indiana’s win at Michigan State can be a launching pad to the tourney, and other college hoops hot takes I can prove.
2 Related
The difference this season has been offense. The Tigers have scored 1.13 points per possession against the SEC, and 5-foot-11 point guard Tremont Waters has had a big role in helping those numbers along. His shooting has improved from both sides of the arc in conference play, and his already robust assist rate has climbed even higher.
That being said, where LSU really stands out is on the offensive glass. With Naz Reid, Kavell Bigby-Williams and Emmitt Williams leading the charge, the Tigers have pulled down a league-leading 38 percent of their misses in SEC play.
Of course, the most famous and disputed offensive rebound of LSU’s season is the put-back recorded by Bigby-Williams in the final second of the game against Kentucky. The officials said it counted, and now the Tigers will have a chance to play their way into a seed few thought possible in the preseason.
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Here’s how we’re projecting the bubble right now …
Bids from traditional “one-bid” leagues: 23 teams
Locks: 12 teams
The bubble: 39 teams for 33 available spots
Should be in: 18 teams
Work to do: 21 teams
ACC | Big 12| Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina
Should be in: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse
Work to do: NC State, Clemson
Should be in
Louisville Cardinals
When you lose a home game that you led in the second half by 23 points, the way Louisville did rather incredibly against Duke, the only direction to move is forward. The Cardinals host Clemson this weekend, and that’s not a game to be taken lightly. The Tigers have been playing their way into the bracket in their own right of late, and Chris Mack’s team can’t afford to extend what’s now a two-game losing streak. If there’s a specific performance concern with Louisville (as seen vividly in the second half against the Blue Devils), it’s turnovers. In the course of losing three of their last four games, the Cardinals have given the ball away on 24 percent of their possessions.(Updated: Feb. 12)
Virginia Tech Hokies
In Virginia Tech, we’re looking at a group with wins over Purdue, Washington and Syracuse, not to mention the truly historic 47-24 beating the Hokies put on NC State in Raleigh. We are also in the presence of a team, however, that lost at Penn State and, most recently, suffered an eight-point defeat at Clemson. The factors in the previous sentence do no favors to Virginia Tech’s seed. Buzz Williams’ men need to take care of business at home against Georgia Tech and on the road against Pittsburgh before prepping to host Virginia.
Florida State Seminoles
Now that FSU has wins over not only Purdue and LSU but also Louisville, those mid-January losses at Boston College and at Pittsburgh actually loom a bit larger. Neither game was particularly close, and at the time, it seemed like the whole season might go sideways for Leonard Hamilton’s men. Instead, those losses are now looking more and more like underachievement from a team whose other defeats came at the hands of Villanova, Virginia and Duke. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Syracuse Orange
The official motto of Syracuse in 2019 is “We won at Duke.” That’s an excellent motto (yes, yes, the Blue Devils were short-handed, duly noted), one that will balance some demerits — such as four Orange losses in Quads 2 and 3 and, yes, a somewhat listless performance at home in an 18-point loss to Florida State. Not to mention few Bubble Watch teams are blessed with as many upcoming opportunities: Louisville, Duke and Virginia are all coming to the Carrier Dome in the next few weeks.
Work to do
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack did what was necessary and won by three at Pittsburgh. The stage is now set for a potentially profile-transforming two-game stretch: NC State will host Syracuse and then pay a visit to Duke. With two wins there, Kevin Keatts’ team is a “should be in” no-brainer. On the other hand, two losses, while entirely understandable in basketball terms, would spell bracket peril. Coming up short against both the Orange and the Blue Devils would leave NC State at just 5-8 in ACC play and, effectively, with just one remaining regular-season chance to impress the committee in the form of a road game at Florida State. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Clemson Tigers
Welcome to the Bubble Watch fun, Clemson! Joe Lunardi rocketed you all the way up to a No. 10 seed on the heels of that convincing eight-point victory at home over Virginia Tech. In addition to the win over the Hokies, Joe and other mock bracketeers are liking that the Tigers beat Lipscomb by 17 at Littlejohn Coliseum back in December (that’s a Quad 1 win for today, at least – the Bisons are, at this writing, No. 30 in the NET) and that Brad Brownell’s team is free of the proverbial “bad” loss. The worst blemishes on the Clemson record are coming up short at home against (then healthy) Nebraska and losing on a neutral floor to Creighton. That’ll do.
Big 12
Lock: Kansas
Should be in: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State
Work to do: Baylor, TCU, Texas, Oklahoma
Should be in
Texas Tech Red Raiders
For proof that the NCAA didn’t translate the NET rankings directly into the top four seed lines for the bracket preview, look no further than Virginia Tech and Texas Tech. The Hokies and the Red Raiders ranked Nos. 10 and 16, respectively, at the time of the reveal, yet neither was anywhere to be seen in the preview bracket. If you’re Texas Tech, this tells you you’re perched right outside the top four seed lines, and you can perhaps move up with wins in the next few days at Oklahoma State and at home against Baylor and Kansas. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Iowa State Cyclones
The loss at home to TCU was not only surprising, it reduced Iowa State’s chances of winning a share of the Big 12 title. In terms of NCAA seeding impact, however, a single defeat at the hands of (one presumes) another at-large team, even at home, isn’t going to move the needle all that much. Falling to the Horned Frogs represented the Cyclones’ second Quad 2 loss of the season, but Wisconsin also made its way to the No. 4 line in the bracket preview and the Badgers had already lost two Quad 2 games. This isn’t a deal-breaker for ISU, just as long as the Clones don’t get it into their heads to keep doing this kind of thing. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Kansas State Wildcats
It is time to ponder whether the team that might (repeat, might) end the incredible 14-year streak of Kansas conference titles may not also be a threat for a really nice seed. One thing we know already is that Kansas State is making opponents uncomfortable. For a second consecutive season, the Wildcats lead the Big 12 in opponent turnover percentage in conference play. That may sound like a team that’s pressing full court and trying to speed up the tempo, but Bruce Weber’s guys actually play at the slowest pace in the league. Most important, all of the above is working. Kansas State is a projected No. 6 seed right now, but that may not be the end of the story. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Work to do
Baylor Bears
Scott Drew’s team is still struggling to get healthy and whole. King McClure missed Baylor’s 59-53 win Monday at home over Oklahoma due to an ailing knee, and Makai Mason, in his first game back after a sitting out with a toe issue, went 2-of-14 from the floor. Then again, if Devonte Bandoo keeps shooting 5-of-7 on his 3s and scoring 19 points the way he did against the Sooners, maybe BU can continue to win games while the roster’s on the mend. Any improvement in seed would be particularly welcome for a Bears team that’s being projected as a No. 8 seed. A jump of one or, especially, two seed lines could mean a more manageable round-of 32-opponent. (Updated: Feb. 11)
TCU Horned Frogs
With a chance to take down a shorthanded version of Kansas in Fort Worth, TCU played the Jayhawks into overtime but ultimately came away with an 82-77 loss. That’s a missed opportunity, naturally (and KU fans worried about the Streak heaved a massive sigh of relief), but, in its essentials, the Horned Frogs’ profile still gives TCU fans plenty of grounds for optimism. The road victory at Iowa State, the squeaky clean 16-0 record outside of Quad 1 and, most of all, the upcoming chances to play the Cyclones, Texas Tech and Kansas State at home all add up to a good probability of earning a No. 8 seed or thereabouts. (Updated: Feb. 11)
Texas Longhorns
Call it luck, karma or toughness in crunch time, but Texas looks stronger statistically than your ordinary 6-6 Big 12 team. Those six losses, by the way, have come by a combined 27 points. The Longhorns are expected to draw something in the neighborhood of a No. 9 seed, and this group could definitely give a top seed a game in the round of 32. With a neutral-floor win over North Carolina to their credit (not to mention wins at home over Purdue and Kansas), Shaka Smart’s men make up possibly the most dangerous 14-11 team you’ve ever seen. Yes, that’s a non sequitur. Sometimes those are true. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Oklahoma Sooners
Speaking normatively, there’s no reason why a 3-9 Big 12 team that’s lost five consecutive games should be alive in this discussion at this moment in time. (Later, after a few wins? Sure.) But, speaking empirically, whole-season profiling is still (barely) keeping the Sooners in this discussion. One additional factor aiding OU here? Luck. Oklahoma’s Quad 1 wins came at home against Wofford, on a neutral floor against Florida and on the road against Northwestern. All three opponents are just barely on the correct side of the home, neutral and road opponent NET rankings needed for Quad 1 status (Nos. 30, 50 and 75, respectively). (Updated: Feb. 11)
Big East
Lock: Marquette
Should be in: Villanova
Work to do: St. John’s, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Should be in
Villanova Wildcats
The last-second loss at Marquette was a heartbreaker, and the Wildcats’ last possession in particular brought “ugly” together in the same sentence with “Villanova offense” for one of the few times in the past six years. That being said, Jay Wright’s team is still atop the Big East. Bubble Watch has suggested previously that Nova’s losses to Furman and Penn could lead to a lower seed than what predictive metrics would suggest this team might receive, and the Wildcats’ absence from the NCAA bracket preview did nothing to disprove that notion. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Work to do
St. John’s Red Storm
“Welcome back to another episode of ‘We swept Marquette.’ We’re your hosts, the St. John’s Red Storm. We just won a home game against Butler, 77-73, in overtime. John Gasaway would probably say that’s not that big a deal, but losing certainly would have been. Now we’re up to .500 in Big East play, showing up in the mock brackets as a No. 9 seed and getting ready to host Villanova at the Garden this weekend. Sounds we could be moving up to ‘should be in’ very soon. Join us again next time, and remember: We swept Marquette.” (Updated: Feb. 12)
Seton Hall Pirates
Wins over Kentucky on a neutral floor and at Maryland are going to keep the Pirates in bubble suspense until one of two things happen: Either Seton Hall will play its way solidly into the field with a sufficient number of wins in upcoming games at Creighton, at St. John’s and at home against Marquette and Villanova, or Kevin Willard’s team (currently 5-6 in conference) will fall too far under .500 in Big East play to merit further consideration. Anything in between those two paths will just mean more suspense. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Butler Bulldogs
At 5-7 in Big East play after the overtime loss at St. John’s and with its marquee neutral-floor win over Florida looking less marquee with each passing week, Butler badly needs to refurbish its profile. The Bulldogs have road games remaining at Marquette and Villanova, and a win in at least one of those contests is now looking more or less essential for a team listed as “first four out” by Lunardi. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Creighton Bluejays
The next time you’re tempted to dismiss “every possession counts” as empty coachspeak, think of the Bluejays. This team took both Marquette and Villanova to overtime only to lose both games. In addition, it’s possible no team Creighton has beaten this season will earn an at-large bid. (Butler could go either way. Who knows, maybe Clemson will work some miracle.) When that’s the case, and you’re 13-11 overall and 4-7 in conference, you need two things: (A) a respectable Big East record at the finish line; and (B) a win at Marquette on March 3. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue
Should be in: Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Work to do: Ohio State, Minnesota, Indiana
Should be in
Wisconsin Badgers
Life is brutal at the top of the Big Ten. Ethan Happ has scored 38 points and pulled down 23 rebounds in the last two games, and all that got Wisconsin was losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Nick Ward was particularly effective on Happ for the Spartans, forcing the Badger senior into six turnovers and making him take 20 shots to get his 20 points. Now Greg Gard’s team, which is 0-2 since it was tapped as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA’s bracket preview, gets a welcome six days of rest before returning to the court at home against Illinois. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Maryland Terrapins
If you’ve watched Maryland this season, you’ve likely been told this is one of the youngest teams in the country. That is indeed correct, and it helps explain both how good this team is and how great it could become. As one would expect from a youthful group, the Terrapins have suffered from an exceedingly large turnover disparity in Big Ten play. Take turnovers out of that equation, however, and Bruno Fernando, Anthony Cowan Jr. and company can play with, literally, anyone. Heck, leave turnovers in the discussion and the Terps are still tough. Ask Purdue, which came up on the short end of a 70-56 final score in College Park despite committing seven fewer turnovers than Maryland. For a projected No. 6 seed, this is one strong team. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Iowa Hawkeyes
If you paused in hitting “refresh” on this page, you know the Iowa writeup before this one waxed eloquent on how the Hawkeyes don’t have any truly bad losses. Well, that’s still true, but, man, did Iowa come close. Fran McCaffery’s guys needed a last-second 3 from Jordan Bohannon to escape with an 80-79 win at home over Northwestern. Absent the Hawkeyes’ amazing rally from 11 down with 2 minutes, 5 seconds remaining, the Wildcats would have handed the home team a Quad 2 loss. Instead, Iowa’s profile is still unblemished by anything close to that. Well done, Hawkeyes. Your projected No. 6 seed is looking solid after all. (Updated: Feb. 10)
Work to do
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes’ brutal January looks different now. Sure, the loss at Rutgers still sticks out on the profile, but when the other teams beating you are Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa and Maryland, losing six of seven doesn’t look quite as bad. Now that the schedule has turned in OSU’s favor, conversely, Chris Holtmann’s guys have won three straight. The win at Cincinnati in the first game of the season still looks really good, and Ohio State has risen to the No. 9 or even 8 line in the mock brackets. February has been good to this team as it sets its sights on March. (Updated: Feb. 10)
Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Golden Gophers suffered from bad timing and caught Michigan State when the Spartans decided to once again be good at basketball. The result was a 24-point loss at East Lansing, but Richard Pitino’s team is still in an unusually good position for a projected No. 10 seed. Minnesota’s worst losses both came on the road to major-conference opponents (Boston College and Illinois). Not to mention the Gophers will get at least four and possibly five more chances at Quad 1 wins in the regular season, including home games against Michigan and Purdue. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Indiana Hoosiers
Here we are again, plotting out “how many wins will it take” scenarios for an Indiana team with victories over Marquette and Louisville. Well, after the Hoosiers’ 55-52 loss at home to Ohio State, the hill in between IU and a bid is that much steeper. Archie Miller’s team is 4-9 in Big Ten play, and Bubble Watch is on the record as assuming the magic number here is five more wins — meaning only that at that point a conversation can begin. It still might not result in a bid, mind you, but we can discuss a 9-11 Big Ten team with wins over the Golden Eagles and the Cardinals. Anything short of that, however, is unlikely to get the job done. (Updated: Feb. 10)
Pac-12
Should be in: Washington
Work to do: Arizona State
Should be in
Washington Huskies
Now we know that Washington won’t run the table in the Pac-12. The loss at Arizona State means Mike Hopkins’ men will likely reach Selection Sunday showing road victories at Arizona and Oregon as their best wins. This is still the Pac-12’s best per-possession team by a healthy margin, one that’s likely to post a gaudy record in conference play. All of that might well result in a seed in the middle of the bracket and, consequently, a game against a very high seed in the round of 32. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Work to do
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State is still alive after beating Washington 75-63 in Tempe, and Bobby Hurley’s team could get more Quad 1 opportunities thanks to road games at Oregon and Arizona. Plus, ASU’s profile also includes, of course, the nonconference wins over Kansas (at home) and Mississippi State (neutral floor). Will that be enough to offset losing by 21 to Washington State at home (a Quad 4 loss)? That’s entirely out of the Sun Devils’ hands. All they can do is win games, starting with their road trip to Colorado and Utah. (Updated: Feb. 9)
SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Should be in: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
Work to do: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida
Should be in
LSU Tigers
Remember last season (and several seasons before that) when it seemed like Kansas won every single close game that it played? That crunch-time magic has somehow been replicated in Baton Rouge in 2019. LSU did lose a nail-biter at home to Arkansas, but overall the Tigers are 6-1 in SEC games decided by single digits. Most impressively, Will Wade’s men brought their 40th minute mastery to hallowed Rupp Arena and came away with a somewhat controversial but nevertheless impressive 73-71 win over Kentucky. The Tigers are the only visiting team that’s won a game in Lexington this season. That, plus a 10-1 SEC record, could presage an even higher seed in the bracket than the currently projected No. 5 line for Wade’s group. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
No team’s done more with a sub.-500 conference record than MSU, which is 5-6 in the SEC but popping up as a No. 7 seed in mock brackets. Well, there’s a reason for that. The Bulldogs have more Quad 1 wins (six) than they do SEC wins. Ben Howland’s team will get the chance to add to both win totals, of course, when it plays on the road in the coming weeks at Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee. Meantime, in conference play Quinndary Weatherspoon is continuing to do a pretty fair imitation of Buddy Hield by displaying uncommon accuracy all over the court, on 2s, 3s and free throws alike. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Auburn Tigers
The Tigers are a very good team that, one early-season blowout at home against Washington notwithstanding, hasn’t had much success in its biggest games. In fact, after the five-point loss at LSU, Bruce Pearl’s men now stand at 1-6 in Quad 1 contests. Auburn will have opportunities to improve that mark, however, thanks to yet-to-be-played home games against Mississippi State and Tennessee and upcoming road trips to Kentucky and Alabama. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Work to do
Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels are demonstrating how persistence of vision manifests itself in tournament selection. Ole Miss has lost five of its past eight, but good work done in November (neutral-floor win over Baylor) and especially in early January (beating Auburn in Oxford and Mississippi State in Starkville) is, for now, keeping Terence Davis & Co. in projected single-seed territory. Barely.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is clinging to the projected field of 68 as a No. 11 seed or thereabouts, but Avery Johnson’s team will have to build on the home wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State to truly feel secure. LSU and Auburn are both coming to Tuscaloosa at the beginning of next month, and a win in one of those two games would certainly help matters. Before that, however, Bama has to take care of business at home against Florida this weekend. You will doubtless hear that the game between the Tide and the Gators has big bubble implications. Believe it. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Florida Gators
Here’s a question Bubble Watch fields from time to time: “How in the world is Florida still in Bubble Watch? All the Gators do is lose.” Now, wait just a second there, questioner. Bubble Watch will have you know that UF is [checks notes], well, 12-11 overall. But in SEC play, Mike White’s guys happen to be, well, 4-6. So, how is Florida still in Bubble Watch? The Gators ranked No. 42 in the NET heading into the loss at Tennessee and, like other teams barely clinging to bubble life, they’ve played a ton of Quad 1 games and lost all but one (at Arkansas). If that opportunities-to-results ratio doesn’t improve, and fast, UF won’t be sticking around these parts. (Updated: Feb. 9)
American
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF, Temple
Should be in
Cincinnati Bearcats
Mick Cronin’s team went scoreless over the final 6:11 of the game and lost 65-58 at Houston. Jarron Cumberland scored 27 points for UC (albeit on 25 shots), but it was not to be. The outcome represents a lost chance to earn a higher seed, far and away the best single opportunity the Bearcats will get before Selection Sunday. Then again, there’s no shortage of teams in the American or, indeed, nationally, that would gladly switch places with a group cruising toward something in the neighborhood of a No. 7 seed. (Updated: Feb. 10)
Work to do
UCF Knights
The Knights are living dangerously for the moment, perched right on the dividing line between “in” and “out.” That status, however, may be something of a placeholder for a 16-5 team that beat Alabama in Orlando, Florida, but is yet to record a Quad 1 win. In fact, UCF’s had only two chances to do so all season, that’s the point. This is one uncommonly back-loaded schedule and, with a strong finish, Johnny Dawkins’ team could make the field with plenty of room to spare. The Knights are still going to get two shots at Cincinnati, as well as road games at Houston and Temple. (Updated: Feb. 10)
Temple Owls
Things are starting to look a bit more ominous for the Owls. The January win against Houston in Philadelphia is, of course, keeping Temple in the discussion, but this is also a team that’s now lost four of its last seven. Losing by 18 on the road to a Tulsa team that entered the game 3-7 in American play is particularly worrisome. The Owls are variously shown as barely in or barely out, but more games like the one against the Golden Hurricane will take any remaining uncertainty out of this question.
Others
Lock: Gonzaga
Should be in: Nevada, Buffalo
Work to do: VCU, Wofford
Should be in
Nevada Wolf Pack
Eric Musselman went after Pac-12 opponents in making his 2018-19 schedule, and, well, that league isn’t having its best season. The dip in what was supposed to be major-conference opponent strength explains how Nevada is currently being projected as a No. 4 seed with a 21-1 record. It also accounts for the fact that Musselman’s team is still yet to play a Quad 1 game this season. That will change, at last, when the Wolf Pack visit Utah State at the beginning of next month.
Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls have now successfully completed the first half of a crucial two-game road swing. Nate Oats’ team won at Akron 76-70, thanks in part to 21 points and 11-of-12 shooting at the line from CJ Massinburg. Next up for the Bulls, a trip to Toledo, where the season’s last Quad 1 opportunity awaits. UB won the first game between these two teams 110-80, a result which gave little indication that the Rockets might be the best team the MAC has produced in the last five years…with the exception of Buffalo this season. Expect a NCAA tournament atmosphere as Tod Kowalczyk’s team defends its home floor and the Bulls try to improve what’s anticipated to be a No. 7 seed. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Work to do
VCU Rams
The Rams are now in a first-place tie atop the Atlantic 10 with Davidson. The road win at Texas is a nice feather in the profile cap, and depending on what Temple can get done with respect to its own tournament hopes, a neutral-floor win over the Owls could also become a useful talking point. If VCU has a built-in challenge on its path to an at-large bid, however, it’s opportunities. The A-10 isn’t giving Mike Rhoades’ team any Quad 1 chances the rest of the way, and barring a jump by the Wildcats in the NET rankings, that statement will apply to the conference tournament at Barclays Center as well. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Wofford Terriers
The SoCon has never sent an at-large team to the NCAA tournament, but there’s a first time for everything. Wofford is in this discussion because the Terriers are 21-4, with losses to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State. Mike Young’s men additionally own Quad 1 wins at UNC Greensboro and at East Tennessee State. Finally, it’s worth noting Wofford won at South Carolina by 20, even though that shows up on the profile as a Quad 2 victory. (Updated: Feb. 9)
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