6:03 pm | February 2, 2019 | Go to Source | Author:
Michigan State had seemingly entered the ranks of the elite, winning 13 games in a row and somehow looking even better without the injured Joshua Langford.
That’s come to an end in emphatic fashion, as Tom Izzo’s Spartans have now lost back-to-back games. It started last Sunday when they fell to a hot Purdue team on the road — a reasonable defeat, especially considering capped a three-game-in-six-days stretch. On Saturday, though, they lost at home to an Indiana team that had lost its previous seven games, a team that saw one of its two stars, Juwan Morgan, get injured in the first half and miss the rest of the game.
So naturally, here come the questions: Is there anything wrong with Michigan State?
The most noticeable change in the last two games has been Michigan State’s defense. The Spartans had allowed an opponent to score one point per possession just once in their previous 11 games — but both Purdue and Indiana easily surpassed that threshold. Purdue hit 12 3-pointers and Indiana knocked in 10 from behind the arc, with the latter especially surprising given the Hoosiers’ perimeter shooting deficiencies all season. They also allowed both opponents to have far too much success on the offensive glass.
Michigan State doesn’t drop in the rankings, though, as the Spartans’ resume is still very impressive — despite lacking a true marquee win. They rank in the top five in the BPI and at KenPom, and were in the top five of the NET coming into Saturday. They also have eight Quadrant 1 wins.
Saturday: North Carolina, Kentucky keep rolling
North Carolina and Kentucky both had uneven nonconference slates back in November and December. The Tar Heels handled Gonzaga but were beaten by Texas and Kentucky and dominated by Michigan. Kentucky could never seem to get sustained momentum, losing to Seton Hall in New York and following up wins over North Carolina and Louisville with a loss at Alabama.
As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, though, both teams are beginning to kick into high gear. North Carolina won its fifth game in a row on Saturday, going into Louisville and knocking off the Cardinals — avenging a 21-point loss to Louisville in Chapel Hill in January. Kentucky won its eighth game in a row, erasing a double-digit second-half deficit at Florida.
Both of these teams are going to be factors in March. North Carolina plays fast and dominates the glass, but this team also shoots it much better than previous Roy Williams-coached teams. In eight ACC games, the Tar Heels have shot 40 percent or better from 3-point range on six occasions. The two games in which they fell short of that mark were against Louisville, perhaps not coincidentally.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats have figured out their roles and are really locking in defensively. Kentucky is getting quality point guard play from Ashton Hagans and experience and physicality from Reid Travis down low — while Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson handle the scoring and PJ Washington continues to develop into one of the best two-way players in the country. Saturday’s win over Florida was also the sixth time in seven games the Wildcats have held an opponent below one point per possession.
The two bluebloods might not be in the same conversation as Duke, Tennessee, Virginia, Gonzaga and Michigan State just yet, but they’re starting to hit their stride — and their ceiling and potential will eventually get them in that discussion.
Tuesday: More struggles for Kansas
Here comes the inevitable question that seems to pop up at least once every season: Is this the year Kansas’ Big 12 streak comes to an end?
The Jayhawks suffered their third loss in four games on Tuesday, falling 73-63 at Texas in a game that was closer than the score indicated — but perhaps uglier than Kansas’ margin of defeat showed. Kansas simply wasn’t good. The only reason the game was that close was because of freshman Ochai Agbaji, who started for the slumping Lagerald Vick and finished with 24 points and seven rebounds. Dedric Lawson was invisible in the first half, and Vick struggled once again to get open outside of a couple of second-half 3s.
Had Texas made better decisions in the first half, the Longhorns could have run Kansas out of Austin in the first 20 minutes.
Back to the original question. In a vacuum, is Kansas consistently good enough to win its 15th straight Big 12 title? Probably not. But we’re not in a vacuum.
And here’s the thing: No one else in the Big 12 has been consistently good enough so far to be considered the favorite to knock Kansas off its pedestal. Texas Tech looked the part early, but the Red Raiders have been the second-worst offensive team in Big 12 play. Iowa State has shown the ability, but the Cyclones also have suffered some surprising losses. Baylor and Kansas State have surprised in Big 12 play. TCU was just waxed by Texas Tech.
Where does that leave us? For now, Kansas is struggling mightily … but the Jayhawks still might be the Big 12 favorites moving forward.
Sunday: Purdue’s a Big Ten (and national) contender again
The Big Ten has been an absolute gauntlet so far this season, with upward of 10 teams able to call themselves realistic contenders for an NCAA tournament berth at various times in the past couple of months. Eight teams are ranked among the top 31 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, with 10 in the top 50. It’s the same at KenPom.
As a result, it’s hard to figure out which team is real and which isn’t — and it has led to a “flavor of the week” feel outside of Michigan and Michigan State. One team that the metrics have maintained an affinity for is Purdue — despite its ups and downs. The Boilermakers started the season just 6-5 but never dipped outside the top 20 at KenPom. Heading into Sunday’s 10-point win over Michigan State, they were No. 8 at KenPom and No. 10 in the BPI.
It turns out the metrics were right. Purdue has won five in a row and eight of its past nine, moving to 7-2 in the Big Ten. Carsen Edwards is an All-American in the backcourt, but the Boilermakers proved they can win without a huge game from him against the Spartans. They’re an elite offensive unit, with several shooters surrounding Edwards and emerging big men in Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms.
The skeptic will say that we went through this with Wisconsin and Ohio State and Nebraska and Maryland at different points so far this season — all have had a claim as the Big Ten’s third-best team. But Purdue seems different, and its schedule could help immensely moving forward. The Boilermakers don’t play Michigan, Michigan State or Wisconsin again this season. In fact, their toughest remaining games in the regular season are on the road vs. a Maryland team that just lost by double digits to Illinois and at Nebraska, a team that just lost Isaac Copeland for the season.
Will there be slip-ups along the way? Of course. The Big Ten has been entirely unpredictable this season. But Matt Painter has this team getting better as the season progresses, and the schedule is opening up for that run to continue moving forward.
1. Tennessee Volunteers (20-1)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: Beat South Carolina 92-70 on Tuesday, beat Texas A&M 93-76 on Saturday
Rick Barnes’ team got its 20th win of the season on Saturday, behind a balanced effort with five guys scoring at least 14 points. Jordan Bowden returned after a one-game absence to score 16 points and dish out four assists, while Lamonte Turner continued to bring a different dimension to the Volunteers with three 3-pointers. The Vols head home for three straight games.
2. Duke Blue Devils (19-2)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: Beat Notre Dame 83-61 on Monday, beat St. John’s 91-61 on Saturday
St. John’s has been something of a thorn in Duke’s side over the years, but that wasn’t the case on Saturday. Tre Jones had one of the elite defensive performances of the season, shutting out Shamorie Ponds in the first half and holding him to a 3-for-11 effort with five turnovers. Jones also had 13 points and seven assists on the offensive end, and grabbed seven boards for good measure.
3. Virginia Cavaliers (19-1)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: Beat NC State 66-65 in OT on Tuesday, beat Miami 56-46 on Saturday
Virginia’s offense hasn’t been all that impressive this week, but the Cavaliers’ defense showed up in a big way on Saturday. Miami was held to 46 points and shot just 4-for-21 from 3-point range. Tony Bennett’s team now gets a full week to rest before hosting Duke and then traveling to North Carolina two days later. Those games will shape the ACC race.
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-2)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: Beat BYU 93-63 on Thursday, beat San Diego 85-69 on Saturday
Gonzaga shook off a slow first half to roll past San Diego — with Rui Hachimura having perhaps his best of the season. The junior big man went for 32 points on 15 shots, adding seven rebounds and two blocks. Hachimura also hit his 11th 3-pointer of the season. Hachimura hasn’t shot below 50 percent from the field in a game since Dec. 15
5. Michigan State Spartans (18-4)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: Lost to Indiana 79-75 on Saturday
A 13-game winning streak has down into a two-game losing streak after Michigan State fell at home to Indiana on Saturday. The Spartans certainly weren’t at their best, but here’s the key stat: 8-for-22. That’s what Michigan State shot from the free-throw line, highlighted by Nick Ward’s 1-for-9 effort from the stripe. Ward’s around a 65 percent free-throw shooter, so had he shot at his usual clip, the sudden narrative surrounding the Spartans doesn’t even exist.
6. Michigan Wolverines (20-2)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: Beat Ohio State 65-49 on Tuesday, lost to Iowa 74-59 on Friday
Michigan’s sputtering offense finally caught up to the Wolverines on Friday, as the defense allowed more than one point per possession for just the third time this season — and John Beilein’s offense couldn’t pick up the slack. The Wolverines have now been held below one point per possession in three of their past five games, after seeing that happen just three times in the first 17 games.
7. Kentucky Wildcats (18-3)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: Beat Vanderbilt 87-52 on Tuesday, beat Florida 65-54 on Saturday
For a long stretch on Saturday, it looked like Kentucky’s seven-game winning streak was coming to an end. Florida took an 11-point lead with 14 minutes left in the game — and then made two shots in the next 12 minutes. Tyler Herro led the way offensively, but PJ Washington continued his stellar play and Keldon Johnson hit some key shots in the second half.
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (17-4)
Previous ranking: 9
This week: Beat Georgia Tech 77-54 on Tuesday, beat Louisville 79-69 on Saturday
The Tar Heels got their revenge on Louisville on Saturday, just three weeks after the Cardinals pummeled Carolina in Chapel Hill. The inside-outside forward duo of Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson consistently gave Louisville issues, with both players nabbing double-doubles. The Tar Heels dominated the glass after losing the rebound battle to Louisville the first time around.
9. Nevada Wolf Pack (21-1)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: Beat UNLV 87-70 on Tuesday, beat Boise State 93-73 on Saturday
Caleb Martin is starting to find his outside shot again for the Wolf Pack. After going 1-for-7 from 3-point range in the loss to New Mexico, and then having a three-game stretch where he shot 9-for-37 from behind the arc, Martin has picked up the pace in his last three games. During that span, Martin has made 15-for-30 from 3-point range en route to averaging 24.7 points.
10. Houston Cougars (21-1)
Previous ranking: 11
This week: Beat Temple 73-67 on Thursday
Houston avenged its lone loss of the season on Thursday, holding off Temple after the Owls beat them by four in early January. On the plus side, the Cougars showed an ability to win a tough game when their outside shots aren’t falling. They shot just 4-for-18 from 3-point range against Temple, but made up for it at the free-throw line and held the Owls far below one point per possession.
11. Kansas Jayhawks (17-5)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: Lost to Texas 73-63 on Tuesday, beat Texas Tech 79-63 on Saturday
A loss to Texas, Marcus Garrett getting hurt, Silvio De Sousa being ruled ineligible for the next two seasons — it wasn’t a great week for Kansas leading up to Saturday. But that was all forgotten as the Jayhawks thoroughly handled Texas Tech. Dedric Lawson dominated the paint, especially in the first half, and Kansas made its most 3-pointers in a game (13) since last season. That will be the recipe going forward for Bill Self this season.
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (18-3)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: Beat Miami 82-70 on Wednesday, beat NC State 47-24 on Saturday
Virginia Tech scored its fewest points all season on Saturday — and still won at NC State by 23. The Hokies held the Wolfpack to a shockingly low 24 points, the fewest points by a ranked team in the shot clock era. NC State shot just 16.7 percent from the field. While it was clearly an off day for the Wolfpack, Virginia Tech has now held three straight opponents below one point per possession.
13. Marquette Golden Eagles (19-3)
Previous ranking: 13
This week: Beat Butler 76-58 on Wednesday
Markus Howard is showing no ill effects from the back spasms that limited him to three minutes against Georgetown earlier this month. He went for 32 points on Wednesday after finishing with 31 against Xavier over the weekend. According to ESPN Stats and Information, Marquette is now 15-0 this season when Howard goes for 20 or more points.
14. Purdue Boilermakers (15-6)
Previous ranking: 15
This week: Beat Penn State 99-90 in OT on Thursday, vs. Minnesota (Sunday)
The Boilermakers came awfully close to a letdown result after their win over Michigan State last weekend, but Carsen Edwards wouldn’t let that happen. Ironically, he bounced back from a subpar effort on Sunday with one of his best games of the season: 38 points and eight 3-pointers. Purdue has now won six in a row and head home for two straight games..
15. Louisville Cardinals (16-6)
Previous ranking: 14
This week: Beat Wake Forest 82-54 on Wednesday, lost to North Carolina 79-69 on Saturday
Part of the reason Louisville blew out North Carolina in Chapel Hill in January was the Tar Heels’ inability to match up with Jordan Nwora and Steven Enoch. The Cardinals couldn’t get either player going on Saturday. Nwora went 3-for-9 from the field en route to 11 points, while Enoch had 16 scoreless minutes off the bench. A road trip to Virginia Tech on Monday awaits.
16. Iowa State Cyclones (16-5)
Previous ranking: 16
This week: Beat West Virginia 93-68 on Wednesday, beat Texas 65-60 on Saturday
Is Cameron Lard starting to come alive for the Cyclones? After missing the start of the season with suspension and then suffering an ankle injury in early January, Lard has been more of a factor in the past week. He had 11 points in 21 minutes off the bench on Saturday, after totaling 14 points in 25 minutes against West Virginia and Ole Miss. He provides a nice option on the interior at full strength.
Dropped out: Buffalo (No. 15)
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