2:02 pm | December 2, 2018 | Go to Source | Author:
As we do each week, we recap the weekend’s best and worst from a fantasy perspective, complete with applicable game and historical data. Check back after the conclusion of the 1 and 4 p.m. ET (and, when applicable, Sunday Night Football) games for our picks.
The Best
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers: Another repeat star in Week 13, McCaffrey’s 31.1 PPR fantasy points Sunday were third-best among running backs from the 1 p.m. ET games, and gives him four performances worth 30-plus in his past five (again, using PPR scoring). That helped him pass Alvin Kamara (288.7) for third place at the position for the season in PPR leagues, and it moved him up to fourth place in non-PPR leagues (James Conner is the only yet-to-play player with a reasonable chance to pass him). McCaffrey caught nine passes on the day, which gave him 80 for the season. That is the most by any running back through 12 team games of any season since at least 1950.
Tarik Cohen, RB, Chicago Bears: While his game did ultimately end in heartbreak — the Bears lost to the New York Giants 30-27 in overtime — Cohen’s performance at least gave them a fighting chance, not to mention resulted in the best PPR fantasy point total of any individual from the 1 p.m. ET games (34.6). He completed a game-tying touchdown pass with 3 seconds to go in regulation, on the day had team highs in targets (14) and receptions (12), and set a new personal best for fantasy points. Cohen’s 156 receiving yards were the most since Todd Gurley had 158 in 2017 Week 16 and tied for the fifth-most this century.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: For the second consecutive week, he had a huge fantasy performance, and just like in Week 12, Allen accomplished it in large part thanks to his contribution as a runner. His 28.7 fantasy points were most among quarterbacks from the 1 p.m. ET games, driven by his 135 yards on nine rushing attempts, the yardage the most by any quarterback since Robert Griffin III had 138 on 13 carries in 2012 Week 6 and the ninth-most by any quarterback since at least 1950. It gave Allen consecutive games with at least 25 fantasy points, making him only the fourth rookie quarterback since at least 1950 to do that (see the accompanying chart). Better yet: Allen and the Bills face four teams in the final four weeks that either possess weak pass defenses or offenses that should push the Bills into a good amount of passing situations in their games, giving him a chance at QB2 value in two-quarterback leagues in each week. He was rostered in only 3.6 percent of ESPN leagues and started in only 1.0 percent in Week 13, so take a look to see if he’s out there in yours if you’re in need at the position.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams: In what many have called a strange, strange fantasy week, there was Gurley again starring, his 31.5 PPR fantasy points the second-best individual score from the 1 p.m. ET games. Interestingly, he risked not even getting to that total when he deliberately failed to score a touchdown with a little more than 2 minutes, 30 seconds remaining in the game on a 36-yard run, only to convert the score himself only two rushing attempts later. (That loud “whew” you heard at the time was all of his fantasy managers exhaling.) For Gurley, it was his sixth game this season with at least 30 points, making him only the 16th running back since at least 1950 to have that many in a single season.
Phillip Lindsay, RB, Denver Broncos: In a game full of personal bests for the rookie, Lindsay managed his most single-game rushing attempts (19), rushing yards (157) and PPR fantasy points (28.9), that last good for fourth-best among all players from the 1 p.m. ET games. It was yet another huge game for a running back facing the Cincinnati Bengals, a defense that entered the weekend having allowed the second-most PPR fantasy points per game to running backs (32.3) for the season and most points in the past five weeks combined (35.2). Lindsay’s next three matchups make him an effective must for his fantasy managers during their playoffs: at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Oakland.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He managed another clean, interception-free game, his 22.8 fantasy points giving him back-to-back 20-point performances and ranking second among quarterbacks from the 1 p.m. ET games. It has been quite the turnaround for Winston, who has become a much more viable starter in fantasy of late, evidenced by his 35.2 percent start rate in ESPN leagues in Week 13 (14th-highest among quarterbacks). He does face a pair of much tougher matchups in the next two weeks, however: The New Orleans Saints in Week 14 and Baltimore Ravens (on the road) in Week 15.
Zay Jones, WR, Bills: On what was yet another running back-heavy Sunday, Jones’ 24.7 PPR fantasy points were tops among wide receivers from the 1 p.m. ET games, not to mention represented a new personal best for the second-year player. While it’s a positive that he now has a pair of 20-plus-point games in his past three, it’s a negative that he was shut out on one target in the game in between in Week 12. Jones has been rather matchup-dependent, which means that he could be worth your while in games against the New York Jets in Week 14 and Miami Dolphins in Week 17, but could struggle in tougher assignments against the Detroit Lions in Week 15 and New England Patriots in Week 16.
Ka’imi Fairbairn, K, Houston Texans: A kicker? Yes, a kicker! Fairbairn’s 21 fantasy points Sunday represented not only his position’s top total from the 1 p.m. ET games, but it tied for the third-best single-game total by any place-kicker in 2018. It represented a new personal best for the second-year player, and extended his lead for converted field goals to 29. With it, Fairbairn captured the positional lead for the season in fantasy points, his 126 barely exceeding Wil Lutz‘s 125. That those two names top the kicker leaderboard tells you all you need to know about how you should be drafting the position: Lutz was the No. 7 kicker off the board on average in the preseason, Fairbairn 26th.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers: His 23.3 PPR fantasy points on 13 targets represented yet another elite-caliber performance, continuing to demonstrate his overall consistency. It gave him a 12th consecutive game with at least 15 points to begin his season, making him the first wide receiver this century to do that — though Antonio Brown will have a chance to match him on Sunday Night Football. Adams matches up extremely nicely for the remainder of the season, with upcoming games against the Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Jets and Lions, so there’s a chance he could extend that streak all the way through season’s end.
The Worst
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: He was the week’s most-started wide receiver in ESPN leagues (99.2 percent), but flopped in a big way, scoring only 3.8 PPR fantasy points on his eight targets Sunday. For Jones, it was his worst single-game score of the season — he hadn’t been held beneath 11.2 points before this — and worst since 2016 Week 3 (2.6). The matchup against the Ravens did have a lot to do with the performance, and Jones should rebound in a big way against the Packers in Week 15.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: In what was the lowest-scoring game of the 2018 season to date (using total points from both teams), Luck 9.5 fantasy points played a large part in his Colts’ 6-0 loss. He managed that on a whopping 52 pass attempts, his most since Week 5 (59), in what was a real letdown to managers who started in him in 65.2 percent of ESPN leagues (sixth-highest among quarterbacks). Luck hadn’t scored that few fantasy points in a game since 2015 Week 2 (8.4, against the Jets), or 32 games ago. It was a huge rebound by the Jaguars’ pass defense, which had allowed an average of 23.0 points per game to opposing quarterbacks the previous five weeks combined, third-highest in the league. Assuming his fantasy teams qualify for the playoffs despite this performance, Luck’s fortunes should improve against the Texans in Week 14.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals: His 8.2 PPR fantasy points looks a lot worse once you consider that he had 20 rushing attempts and 21 total touches, not to mention was started in 94.1 percent of ESPN leagues (seventh-highest among running backs). What’s more, fellow Cardinals running back Chase Edmonds scored 20.6 points, vulturing a couple of touchdowns inside the Packers’ 10-yard line in the process. While it’s not the first time that Edmonds has outscored Johnson in a game this season — Edmonds had 7.0 to Johnson’s 6.1 in Week 2 — it was only the second time in any of Johnson’s 34 career NFL starts that he was outscored by a fellow Cardinals running back, and it was by far the largest margin by which he was outscored. It was a rather puzzling day for the veteran, but he should be able to rebound in a favorable matchup against the Lions in Week 13.
Drew Brees, QB, Saints: He was the highest-profile fantasy player who let his managers down in Week 13, as Brees was the third most-started quarterback in ESPN leagues, active in 80.3 percent, but scored only 7.3 fantasy points on Thursday night. It was the third time in what has been an otherwise excellent season for Brees that he was held beneath 10 points, having scored only 8.6 in Week 4 at the Giants and 6.8 in Week 8 at the Minnesota Vikings. It also dropped his season average in road games to 18.2 points, compared to 26.6 in his home games, so don’t be surprised to hear chatter again increase regarding his home/road splits. For the record, that’s a point that is annually overrated for any player, and in Brees’ case, it’s worth keeping in mind that he has faced a much tougher group of matchups on the road than at home in 2018.
Jared Goff, QB, Rams: If you feel that neither Luck nor Brees was the week’s biggest letdown among fantasy quarterbacks, surely Goff was, as his 8.1 fantasy points Sunday were significantly fewer than managers who started him in 73.2 percent of ESPN leagues (fifth-highest among quarterbacks) were anticipating. He was facing a Lions defense that entered the week having afforded opposing quarterbacks the 10th-most fantasy points per game (19.4) for the season and sixth-most in the previous five weeks combined (22.0), yet committed both an interception and a lost fumble in the contest.
Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: His 7.6 fantasy points Sunday represented his worst single-game total since 2017 Week 14 (6.8, versus the Saints), and were only his second game beneath 10 points all season. The matchup did have a good deal to say about this one, as the opposing Ravens entered the week having allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (16.0), though Ryan was still started in 49.0 percent of ESPN leagues (11th-highest among quarterbacks). In an otherwise excellent season, Ryan is still well worth using during the fantasy playoffs, especially in a much more favorable matchup against the Packers in Week 14.
Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons: His 2.1 PPR fantasy points on six rushing attempts and a 1-of-3 performance catching his targets represented a season low, and gave him four consecutive games scoring beneath 12 points. While the matchup — he was facing a Ravens defense that entered having allowed the second-fewest points per game to running backs (18.0) for the season — had a lot to do with it, the Falcons’ overall offensive struggles cannot be ignored. Coleman was started in 52.2 percent of ESPN leagues in Week 13, 22nd-highest among running backs, and he probably shouldn’t be trusted in that many more leagues in Week 14 against the Packers.
Marlon Mack, RB, Colts: While his matchup against the Jaguars was hardly a favorable one — Jacksonville entered having allowed the fewest PPR fantasy points per game to running backs this season (17.7) — Mack was started nevertheless in 31.6 percent of ESPN leagues, 31st among running backs. He delivered his managers only 4.3 points on eight rushing attempts and a 1-of-1 performance catching his targets, his worst single-game point total of 2018. While it was a positive that Mack was healthy enough to play, he no longer looks like the dominating force he was before the Colts’ Week 9 bye. He’s only a flex-play consideration for Week 14 at the Texans.
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