Week 11 NFL score predictions: A guide to best games, more

Mike DiRocco’s pick: The Jaguars had five interceptions in their 30-9 victory in the 2017 regular season, scoring three defensive touchdowns off those turnovers. The defense feasted on turnovers last season (33) but hasn’t had the same results in 2018 (eight in nine games), and that has impacted the offense. Not as many short fields, injuries, inconsistent play from Bortles and a lack of playmakers make it hard for the Jaguars to score a lot of points. Steelers 30, Jaguars 14

FPI win projection: PIT, 64.3 percent. Entering Week 5, the Steelers were 1-2-1 and the Jaguars were 3-1. Pittsburgh has won five straight, boosting its playoff odds steadily from 23 percent to 95 percent, per FPI. Jacksonville has lost five straight, seeing its playoff odds plummet from 69 percent to 2 percent.

What to watch for in fantasy: The Jaguars have struggled this season, but the pass defense remains one of the league’s best. In fact, Jacksonville has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Read more.

In case you missed it: Groin kick, mystery phone call started Jaguars-Steelers rivalry … Roethlisberger respects Jalen Ramsey but doesn’t fear him … Jags’ coverage busts were ‘total brain farts’

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Point spread: ATL -3.5 | Matchup quality: 62.1 (of 100)

Todd Archer’s pick: The Cowboys’ 2017 season effectively ended in Atlanta with a 27-7 loss that saw Dak Prescott get battered and bruised (eight sacks). At 4-5, the Cowboys’ 2018 season is in a state of flux with their return to Atlanta. However, this Cowboys offense finally found its road legs last week, and now the Cowboys get the 29th-ranked defense in points allowed per game. Cowboys 31, Falcons 27

Vaughn McClure’s pick: After what happened last week in Cleveland, particularly with the Falcons showing little fight in giving up a 92-yard touchdown run to Nick Chubb, it’s hard to say this team will be ready to rebound. But Matt Ryan and the offense has showed up inside the home stadium, averaging 32.2 points and converting 14 of 16 red zone opportunities. The Falcons will have trouble slowing down Ezekiel Elliott, but they’ll score enough points to survive this must-win game. Falcons 35, Cowboys 31

FPI win projection: ATL, 59.4 percent. After struggling out of the gate with a 40.6 Total QBR in the first five weeks of the season (27th in the NFL), Prescott has rebounded with a 63.9 Total QBR in his last four games. He has a good shot to improve on that against the Falcons, who rank fifth-worst in opponent Total QBR this season and allowed Baker Mayfield to post a 94.5 last week.

What to watch for in fantasy: The Falcons defense is one of the weakest against mobile quarterbacks, with a 0.97 points-per-rushing-play average afforded to the position this season ranking third-most in the league. Read more.

In case you missed it: Vander Esch’s instincts fueling emergence of Cowboys’ rookie … LB Jones comes off IR for Falcons … Cooper quickly paying dividends for Cowboys

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Point spread: IND -2 | Matchup quality: 53.1 (of 100)

Turron Davenport’s pick: The Titans are on a two-game win streak with the offense scoring a combined 62 points over that span. The Colts are allowing 26.6 points per game, so expect Marcus Mariota and Tennessee’s offense to score some points here. After holding the Patriots to 10 points, the defense sits at a league-best 16.8 points allowed per game. The Colts’ offense is potent under first-year head coach Frank Reich, but it won’t be able to overcome Tennessee’s stingy defense. Titans 30, Colts 21

Mike Wells’ pick: The Colts are on a three-game winning streak, while the Titans have won two in the row. The Titans have not given up a touchdown to a tight end this season, but the Colts have an NFL-high 15 touchdowns from their tight ends. Andrew Luck (9-0) doesn’t know what it’s like to lose to the Titans, and it stays that way — barely. Colts 31, Titans 27

FPI win projection: IND, 62.4 percent. Luck has posted Total QBRs of 94.8, 88.8 and 92.2 over his last three games, the first player since Russell Wilson in 2015 with three straight games with a Total QBR of 88 or higher. Only three players in the Total QBR era (since 2006) have done so in four straight games: Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning (twice) and Tom Brady.

What to watch for in fantasy: Dion Lewis might have disappointed last week with his output, but the volume was most certainly there. As far as DFS value backs go, Lewis stands out once again in Week 11. Read more.

In case you missed it: Colts TEs: Talkers, dunkers and arguably NFL’s best group … Titans like Davis matchup no matter who’s playing CB … Luck looking to go 10-0 versus Tennessee … ‘Game-changer’ Byard making impact for Titans’ defense

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Point spread: NA | Matchup quality: 49.8 (of 100)

Katherine Terrell’s pick: The Bengals match up much better against the Ravens’ middle-of-the-pack offense than they did against the Chiefs, Rams or Saints. They’ve already beaten the Ravens once this season and generally play well in Baltimore, having won three of the last four. Bengals 28, Ravens 20

Jamison Hensley’s pick: The Ravens are going to be limited at quarterback, whether it’s Lamar Jackson’s growing pains, Joe Flacco‘s injured right hip or Robert Griffin‘s rustiness. To make matters worse, Baltimore is facing its biggest nemesis in Cincinnati. The Ravens have lost eight of their last 10 meetings to the Bengals. Bengals 24, Ravens 20

FPI win projection: BAL, 80.2 percent. We might not know who is starting for the Ravens at quarterback until Sunday, but it does not really matter to FPI. The Ravens would have an 82 percent chance to win with Flacco under center and a 78 percent chance with Jackson.

What to watch for in fantasy: Jackson excelled at Louisville when the pocket was clean of pass-rush pressure, so (if he starts in place of Flacco), he has the potential to post 18-20 points while making Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead IV all double-digit-point candidates. Read more.

In case you missed it: Is this Flacco’s last stand as the Ravens’ starter? … Hue happy to ‘come on home’ to Bengals … Ravens face breaking point as franchise … ‘Cracks in the foundation’: What led to Bengals’ defensive shakeup

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Point spread: HOU -2.5 | Matchup quality: 46.3 (of 100)

Sarah Barshop’s pick: The Texans have won six consecutive games, but their toughest test for the rest of the season might come Sunday against the Redskins. Coach Bill O’Brien has stressed the importance of running the ball late in the season, and his team will have a tough time against Washington’s fifth-ranked run defense, which allows 90.9 rushing yards per game. Houston’s winning streak will come to an end on the road. Redskins 20, Texans 17

John Keim’s pick: Houston’s run defense ranks first in the NFL on first-down runs (3.59 yards), an area of strength for Washington, so any struggles here and it will leave the Redskins in bad situations. Also, the past two weeks Washington faced defenses ranked 32nd (Tampa Bay) and 29th (Atlanta) in points allowed per game, and managed a combined 30 points. The Texans rank seventh. Texans 24, Redskins 17

FPI win projection: HOU, 55.0 percent. The Texans have won six straight games following an 0-3 start, and a lot of the credit belongs to their defense. During that win streak, Houston ranks second in defensive efficiency according to FPI and third in opponent Total QBR.

What to watch for in fantasy: Jordan Reed remains one of the more heavily targeted tight ends in the game, with his 6.6 per-game average tied for sixth-most at the position this season. He should be a big part of the team’s game plan this week. Read more.

In case you missed it: Texans hope RB Foreman adds another ‘powerhouse’ to offense … A look at the Redskins’ path to an NFC East title … Texans focused on Peterson, ‘one of the best to ever play’

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Point spread: CAR -3.5 | Matchup quality: 36.7 (of 100)

David Newton’s pick: The Lions can’t stop the run, and now they face the league’s third-best rushing team, led by Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton. They can’t protect the quarterback, and the Panthers are emphasizing pressure from their front four. This might be a trap game if Carolina wasn’t coming off an embarrassing 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh. It’s not. Panthers 35, Lions 17

Michael Rothstein’s pick: For the past three weeks, Detroit has struggled with outside run defense, mobile quarterbacks, good pass-rushers and receivers with good releases off the line. And Carolina has all of the pieces that have caused nightmares for Detroit during its three-game, double-digit losing streak. Sunday feels like more of the same against an NFC playoff contender. Panthers 31, Lions 21

FPI win projection: CAR, 59.1 percent. Since their Week 6 bye, the Lions have allowed 24-plus points in all four games and rank second-worst in defensive efficiency in that span according to FPI, ahead of only the Raiders. The Panthers rank sixth in offensive efficiency in that same span and are a road favorite as a result.

What to watch for in fantasy: Theo Riddick earns a streaming endorsement for the second straight week, as his receiving role should again translate to a high-floor fantasy performance in a potential high-scoring matchup with the Panthers. Read more.

In case you missed it: Peppers wants to be remembered for more than sacks … Ansah on his way to being healthy, and Lions need him … How much Devin Funchess will mean to Panthers after 2018 still unclear

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Point spread: NYG -2 | Matchup quality: 30.5 (of 100)

Jenna Laine’s pick: This week against the Giants and next week against the 49ers are the two most winnable games the Bucs have remaining on their schedule. The Giants have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but the Bucs struggled last week to get pressure on Alex Smith when the Redskins had only one healthy starting offensive lineman. If Lavonte David, arguably the Buccaneers’ most athletically gifted player and their lone starting linebacker, is out, Saquon Barkley will put up game-wrecking numbers. Giants 27, Buccaneers 25

Jordan Raanan’s pick: The Giants are favored for the first time this season, and not by accident. The Bucs are a worse team (1-6) since Week 3, allowing 32.9 points per game during that span. The Bucs are exactly what the Giants need to record their first home victory of the season. A winning streak for the first time in two years? You betcha. Giants 32, Buccaneers 27

FPI win projection: NYG, 70.5 percent. Why are the 2-7 Giants such a large favorite? In large part because the Buccaneers have a defensive efficiency of 9.7 (on a 0-to-100 scale) on the road this season, according to FPI, which would be the worst in a season in our dataset (since the start of the 2008 season) by a wide margin.

What to watch for in fantasy: It’s time to upgrade the Giants’ Sterling Shepard against the Buccaneers’ M.J. Stewart or Javien Elliott. Read more.

In case you missed it: Misguided moves that still haunt the Bucs … Just one catch, but it was a ‘big deal’ to Giants’ Coleman … Koetter stays with Fitzpatrick to save season, but is it realistic? … New look brings optimism for Giants’ offensive line

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Point spread: LAC -7.5 | Matchup quality: 59.8 (of 100)

Jeff Legwold’s pick: The Chargers have won six consecutive games, and the Broncos haven’t won an AFC West road game since the 2015 season. Denver’s offensive line is missing two starters and the offense has been sputtering, even before dealing Demaryius Thomas at the deadline. The Broncos’ best chance to have success is putting pressure on Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who hasn’t been sacked more than twice in any game this season. Chargers 26, Broncos 17

Eric D. Williams’ pick: After 41 days away from home, the Chargers finally return to the StubHub Center to face the Broncos, losers of two straight and six of their last seven games. Coming off a bye week, the Broncos should be rested and prepared for the Chargers. However, Denver’s defense is giving up nearly 132 rushing yards per game, so expect another big game from Melvin Gordon, with perhaps a larger role for Austin Ekeler. Chargers 30, Broncos 24

FPI win projection: LAC, 76.3 percent. The only team to be ranked in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency by FPI this season? That would be the Chargers. Only five teams have finished a regular season in the top five in both stats in our data set (since the start of 2008), and none since 2015.

What to watch for in fantasy: The Chargers, behind Desmond King‘s strong play, have afforded only 14.3 points per game to opposing slot receivers, third-best in the league. That might prove a problem for Emmanuel Sanders, who has run 62 percent of his routes out of the slot this season. Read more.

In case you missed it: Art of the Sack: It fuels Miller, Chubb and Ingram … Broncos catch Chargers on a roll, try to avoid rock bottom … How the Chargers’ defense got its groove back

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Point spread: ARI -4 | Matchup quality: 2.5 (of 100)

Paul Gutierrez’s pick: Raiders linebackers have combined for zero sacks, zero interceptions, zero forced fumbles and zero fumble recoveries. As a team, the Raiders are last in the NFL in sacks with eight — half a sack less than Cardinals defensive end Chandler Jones has by himself. Jones figures to feast against a beat-up Oakland offensive line, and Larry Fitzgerald should run free through a still-under-construction secondary. Cardinals 17, Raiders 9

Josh Weinfuss’ pick: New offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has injected life into Arizona’s offense. Look no further than David Johnson, who had 183 all-purpose yards in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders boast one of the worst defenses on a play-by-play basis, which will benefit the Cardinals almost immediately because Johnson is expected to have an even larger role this week. Cardinals 27, Raiders 17

FPI win projection: ARI, 54.8 percent. This game features the two teams with the best chance at the No. 1 overall pick, according to FPI, and will play a huge role in deciding it. The Raiders would have a 73 percent chance at the top pick with a loss and a 22 percent chance with a win, while the Cardinals would have a 43 percent chance with a loss and just 4 percent with a win.

What to watch for in fantasy: If Jared Cook continues to see looks, playing him should pay off. Arizona is allowing the seventh-highest completion percentage this season while ranking 27th in scoring defense over the past four weeks. Read more.

In case you missed it: Five teams make their case for the No. 1 pick … Raiders in driver’s seat for No. 1 draft pick (is that a good thing?) … Owner takes blame for Raiders’ start: ‘Buck stops with me’

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Point spread: NO -7.5 | Matchup quality: 69.4 (of 100)

Tim McManus’ pick: A banged-up defense that has just seven takeaways this season (tied for 28th) faces a red-hot Drew Brees, who has thrown just one interception all season. It feels like New Orleans can put up 30 points without much effort, while Philly has scored more than 24 points just once all year. Saints 31, Eagles 23

Mike Triplett’s pick: The Saints have the longest win streak in the NFL (eight straight games), but they also have the league’s longest active losing streak against defending Super Bowl champions, according to ESPN Stats & Information (also eight straight, dating back to 2003). The bet here is the Saints stay hot after scoring a ridiculous 96 points over the past two weeks. Saints 30, Eagles 25

FPI win projection: NO, 74.1 percent. Brees now leads the NFL in Total QBR this season (86.2), and is even better at home (88.7). Only Aaron Rodgers (twice) has posted a higher Total QBR at home in a season in our dataset (since the start of the 2006 season).

What to watch for in fantasy: Michael Thomas leads the Saints in both targets (84) and target percentage (29.17). With Philly being susceptible to outside receivers, this looks like another big week for Thomas. Read more.

In case you missed it: WR Marshall: ‘Healthy as a trout,’ excited to join Saints … Eagles have most difficult finishing schedule in NFL … Kamara: ‘Madden needs to update our whole O-line’

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Point spread: CHI -2.5 | Matchup quality: 71.2 (of 100)

Courtney Cronin’s pick: Kirk Cousins has performed considerably better on the road, and if he gets Stefon Diggs back from a rib injury, things open up for the Vikings’ passing game. Plus, a healthy Dalvin Cook adds another element to this offense. Minnesota hasn’t played its best in prime time this year (losses to the Rams and Saints), but Chicago was where the Vikings sparked a massive turnaround in their season last year. Make it two in a row in the Windy City. Vikings 21, Bears 18

Jeff Dickerson’s pick: Since Week 4, the Bears have averaged the second-most points per game (34.3) in the NFL. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky — the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week — has accounted for 19 touchdowns over the last six games. Chicago’s defense is healthy, led by Khalil Mack, who had two sacks last week in his return. Still, the Bears have yet to beat a team of the Vikings’ caliber. Until they do, questions will continue to linger whether they are truly ready to win the NFC North. Vikings 24, Bears 23

FPI win projection: CHI, 57.5 percent. The Vikings and Bears will have their chances to win their division impacted more than any other teams in the league this week, per FPI. The Vikings could see their chances swing by 33 percentage points (49 percent with win, 16 percent with loss), and the Bears by 36 (68 percent with win, 32 percent with loss).

What to watch for in fantasy: In his past three games, Anthony Miller has averaged 69.3 yards and 6.3 targets with a clean 68.4 percent catch rate, while handling 11.0 air yards per target. The Vikings have been solid against receivers for much of the season, but Miller’s mix of usage and wide availability supports streaming value for Week 11. Read more.

In case you missed it: Trubisky’s ‘process’ now has him on record pace … After big payday, Hunter resumes making QBs the hunted … Trubisky’s rise, Bears ‘800 plays’ on offense challenge Vikings

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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Point spread: LAR -3.5 | Matchup quality: 89.0 (of 100)

Adam Teicher’s pick: The Chiefs have allowed an average of 17 points over the past four games, whereas the Rams have allowed an average of 34 points over the past three games. The Chiefs are also 3-1 this season against teams in the top 11 in scoring (like the Rams). They know how to win games like this one. Chiefs 34, Rams 31

Lindsey Thiry’s pick: For the first time since 1991, Monday Night Football returns to L.A. and home-field advantage will undoubtedly benefit the Rams. The offenses will trade blows, so it will come down to which defense can make a final stand. While the Rams’ defense has struggled at times this season, it has made late stops when necessary — including last week against the Seahawks. Rams 36, Chiefs 34

FPI win projection: LAR, 63.5 percent. Potentially the game of the year, this will feature the top two offenses in the league in terms of efficiency. The Chiefs (89.1 on a 0-to-100 scale) and Rams (88.9) not only have the top offenses this season, per FPI, but of any season in our dataset (since the start of the 2008 season).

What to watch for in fantasy: The Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers during the past two months, so upgrade Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Read more.

In case you missed it: Mexico move leaves hurt feelings for Chiefs and Rams fans … Marcus Peters still believes in Marcus Peters. Do the Rams? … Chiefs expand brand into Spanish-speaking community

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