3:03 pm | October 28, 2018 | Go to Source | Author:
As we do each week, we recap the week’s best and worst from a fantasy perspective, complete with applicable game and historical data. Check back after the conclusion of the 1 and 4 p.m. ET (and, when applicable, Sunday Night Football) games for our picks.
The Best
James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: He keeps on rolling in Le’Veon Bell’s absence, setting a new career high with 38.2 PPR fantasy points on Sunday. That’s now the third-best individual score by any running back this season (through the 1 p.m. ET games) behind only Alvin Kamara‘s 43.1 (Week 1) and 41.1 (Week 4), and it gave Conner a third performance this season alone worth at least 30 points. Conner now has 179.2 points for the season, which places him third for the season pending Kamara’s and James White‘s later games, and that’s actually 32.4 more points than Bell had through seven team games of any of his first five NFL seasons — Bell’s best total through seven was 146.8, last season. Could it be any clearer that Conner deserves to continue starting for the Steelers, even after a potential Bell return from his holdout? The league’s trade deadline arrives Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, so these next 48 hours or so could be pivotal.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: For the fourth time in his career but first since 2015 Week 12, Watkins scored more than 30 PPR fantasy points, his 30.7 tying for the largest total among wide receivers from the 1 p.m. ET games. It served a reminder that when he’s at his best, he can post massive fantasy point totals, though he’s still typically the third read for Patrick Mahomes most weeks and therefore unlikely to repeat quite the lofty score. Watkins was started in 49.5 percent of ESPN leagues on Sunday, 25th-highest among wide receivers for Week 8.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs: His historic season continued on Sunday, as Mahomes’ 26.0 fantasy points represented the sixth time in his eight games this season that he scored at least 25 points. With it, he has 216.9 points for the season, easily most among quarterbacks, and in fact the fourth-most by any quarterback through his team’s first eight games of any season since at least 1950 (see the chart to the right). Mahomes is a bona fide fantasy superstar, he’s matchups-proof, and he should continue his strong play in Week 9 despite having to face a Cleveland Browns defense that will enter having afforded a total of 121.3 points to opposing quarterbacks through eight games.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: One of the many fantasy stars from a high-scoring Bengals-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, Mixon’s 28.8 PPR fantasy points represented a new career high for the second-year running back, and they were the second-best total at the position from the 1 p.m. ET games. With that performance, he has three games worth at least 20 points this season, which has helped him inflate his start percentage in ESPN leagues to 97.5, his highest in more than a calendar year. Mixon’s Bengals are now on their bye, and he does face tough run defenses in the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens in his first two games back (Weeks 10-11), but he’s a borderline RB1 in all formats at this point.
Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Detroit Lions: For the first time in more than two years, Jones reached the 30-point PPR fantasy plateau, his 30.7 points matching the aforementioned Watkins for the position’s lead from the 1 p.m. ET games. He was the Lions’ offensive star on a day where the rest of the receiving game was relatively quiet, as Kerryon Johnson’s 15.1 points, fueled by a 6-catch-on-8-target line, and Golden Tate’s 12.3 points on 12 targets were the only scores even remotely close. Jones, who was started in 41.9 percent of ESPN leagues (27th-highest among wide receivers), hadn’t topped 17 points in a game all season before this. He does still possess big-play potential, however, and could put forth another solid score in Week 9 against an underperforming Minnesota Vikings defense.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers: Star in Week 7, star again in Week 8. Newton’s matchup Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens was arguably his toughest on his 2018 schedule, but he rose above it in scoring 28.0 fantasy points, most among quarterbacks from the 1 p.m. ET games. That represented the highest single-week total the Ravens defense has afforded an opposing quarterback in eight games this season. Newton continues to offer clutch performances with an elevated weekly statistical floor thanks to his mobility, and he gets the most favorable matchup a quarterback could ask in Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’ll be a must-start and arguably the week’s QB1 entering that game.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans: After a pair of awful performances, both of which earned him a place in “The Worst” in this column, Watson wasn’t expected to perform anywhere near the 31.0 fantasy point level he exhibited on Thursday Night Football. He was started in just 46.1 percent of ESPN leagues, 12th-highest among quarterbacks and only a 12.4 percent increase over his Week 7 number (31.7). It was a significant rebound for the second-year passer, even if the matchup was clearly more favorable than either of the previous two, and it was an important effort in light of the fact that he’ll next face a Denver Broncos defense perceived to be one of the best ones in the league and ranked sixth-best against opposing quarterbacks entering the week (14.7 points per game allowed). Watson, incidentally, has now totaled 321.3 fantasy points in the first 14 starts of his NFL career, the second-most through that many starts behind only Cam Newton’s 327.5.
The Worst
Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers: Back-to-back productive weeks inflated Winston’s fantasy stock to the point that he was started in 52.5 percent of ESPN leagues (ninth-most among quarterbacks) on Sunday, but he responded with a 8.8 point score that fell considerably short of the top 10 at his position. In fact, after committing his fourth interception of the game, a pick-six late in the third quarter, Winston was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who scored 19.6 fantasy points of his own in a little more than a quarter’s action. Winston’s struggles controlling the football cannot be overlooked — he has been intercepted 10 times in his four games this season — and it’s legitimate to ask whether he or Fitzpatrick should start for the team come Week 9. Even if Winston gets the nod against the Panthers, he’ll be only a mid-range QB2, mainly thanks to his mobility.
Carlos Hyde, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: In his Jaguars debut, Hyde could muster only 1.1 PPR fantasy points on six rushing attempts and an 0-for-2 performance catching his targets on Sunday in London. Though early-morning reports had the team granting T.J. Yeldon the start, the league website’s gamebook indicated that Hyde indeed was the team’s starter, so this was a somewhat modest workload, even with the team playing from behind for much of the game. Hyde was started in 26.0 percent of ESPN leagues on Sunday, an increase of more than eight percent over his Week 7 (when he was inactive), but between this performance and the potential return of Leonard Fournette (hamstring) after the Week 9 bye, that rate — as well as his standing on rosters at all — is sure to plummet. Hyde might be merely the Jaguars’ injury contingency plan for the final eight weeks.
Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Browns: His miserable season continued on Sunday, as he managed a mere 3.6 PPR fantasy points on two rushing attempts and three targets, the third time this season he has been held beneath four points and the sixth time he has been held beneath six. Johnson simply hasn’t been getting close to the same level of involvement in the receiving game that he did in 2017, his 29 targets through eight games putting him on a pace for 58, which would be 35 fewer than he had in all of 2017 (he totaled 93). Fortunately, Johnson’s fantasy managers have caught on to his limited usage and started him in only 16.2 percent of ESPN leagues in Week 8, but there’s a good chance that this game might finally result in his roster percentage dipping beneath 50 for the first time in 2018.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, New York Jets: For the third consecutive week, Crowell was held beneath 10 PPR fantasy points, his 4.8 on Sunday his second-worst score in eight games this season (1.3, Week 4). Though his 13 carries don’t look quite so bad considering his Jets trailed for much of Sunday’s game, one might’ve hoped for better from him now that the starting running back job is all his with Bilal Powell (neck) on season-ending IR. Crowell does get a much more favorable matchup in Week 9 against the Miami Dolphins, but even in that case, it’s important to note that the Dolphins tend to struggle more against pass-catching backs.
Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions: Golladay’s loss was the aforementioned Jones’ gain, as Golladay took a back seat to the veteran in Sunday’s game en route to a quiet 2.2 PPR fantasy points on one target. For the second-year wide receiver, it was a second consecutive poor score coming out of the Lions’ Week 6 bye, and he totaled three targets in the process. He was also started in more than 59 percent of ESPN leagues in both weeks. The Lions’ distinct shift towards more of a rush-oriented offense this season is starting to have a noticeable effect on members of the team’s passing game, the their upcoming schedule might exacerbate that. In Golladay’s defense, the Vikings — the Lions’ Week 9 opponent — have struggled against the pass all season, so perhaps he’s due for a mild rebound.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks: A season-best 15.1 PPR fantasy point total in Week 6 coaxed Baldwin’s fantasy managers to start him in 41.1 percent of leagues on Sunday, his highest single-game rate since Week 1, but he let them down by scoring only 4.6 points on his three targets against the Lions. In Baldwin’s defense, the Seahawks didn’t need to rely much on their passing game, attempting only 17 passes, but the receiver’s line was disappointing considering quarterback Russell Wilson completed touchdown passes to three different receivers in the game. Things might not improve much in Week 9 against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that is fresh off the bye and has played better pass defense of late.
Trey Burton, TE, Chicago Bears: After posting three consecutive games with at least 12.3 PPR fantasy points, during which he displayed good chemistry with Mitchell Trubisky, Burton’s point total dropped to 4.8 on four targets on Sunday. That Trubisky still managed more than 20 fantasy points while completing two passing scores only made Burton’s output more frustrating, but tight end production can be volatile like this. Unfortunately, Burton picked the worst week to stay quiet: He was started in a season-high 61.6 percent of ESPN leagues. He’ll face another below-average matchup in Week 9 against the Buffalo Bills.
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