9:02 am | October 26, 2018 | Go to Source | Author:
Late last week, we ranked the eight women in the WTA Finals heading into the event. We had Naomi Osaka as the contender most likely to win and Elina Svitolina at the very bottom.
Well … Osaka left Singapore without a single W, and Svitolina is a semifinalist. Please pass the salt and ketchup — the crow is being served.
Svitolina might be one of our readers, because shortly after she demolished Petra Kvitova in her opening match, she dedicated the win to those detractors. “I want to take this win as one to go forward, and for all those people and haters that were saying I don’t deserve to be here and I’m, you know, not good.” Touché.
Given how badly our predictions went the first time around, we’ve given ourselves a chance for redemption. Without further ado, our final four predictions for those still left in the Singapore field.
Power Ranking heading into WTA Finals: 5
Round-robin record: 2-0 (def. Osaka, Kiki Bertens, Angelique Kerber)
Semifinal opponent: Karolina Pliskova
It didn’t seem quite fair. After posting a pair of impressive three-set wins over US Open champion Osaka and upset specialist Bertens, Stephens’ fate was still undecided when she faced Kerber on Friday in the final round-robin match. But Stephens took care of Kerber swiftly, 6-3, 6-3. The performance was enough to make the American the favorite to win the WTA Finals.
The keys for Stephens this week has been her patience, resilience and the relatively slow court speed, something she acknowledged after her win over Kerber. “This court is a bit of a neutralizer,” Stephens told the crowd. “I think that’s helped me a little bit.” The surface has allowed her to make full use of her excellent movement and grind-it-out game and should certainly help returning Pliskova’s dominant serve and all-around powerful game.
2. Elina Svitolina
Power Ranking heading into WTA Finals: 8
Round-robin record: 3-0 (def. Wozniacki, Pliskova, Kvitova)
Semifinal opponent: Bertens
Last year, defending champion Caroline Wozniacki humiliated Svitolina in the round-robin stage, allowing her just two games. That was then. On Thursday, Svitolina clinched her semifinal berth with a win against Wozniacki. Like Stephens, Svitolina made it to the semis undefeated.
Svitolina always has had trouble navigating Grand Slam draws and logging wins against elite players. But players often overcome seemingly mental challenges with technical or tactical changes. “I think she’s still playing similar [to last year], but maybe she was missing much more before,” Pliskova said in press after their match earlier in the week. “Maybe she improved a little bit the serve. Otherwise she’s just defending.”
“Just” defending? That dogged defense could pay off in the form of a title for Svitolina, especially against the harder-hitting Bertens, who doesn’t have the same level of patience as her opponent.
3. Kiki Bertens
Power Ranking heading into WTA Finals: 3
Round-robin record: 2-1 (def. Kerber, Osaka; loss, Stephens)
Semifinal opponent: Svitolina
The mobile, 6-foot Bertens is a real opportunist, and that’s a great quality in a tennis player. She made the elite-eight field only because of No. 1-ranked Simona Halep‘s withdrawal with an injury but has proved she belongs. Bertens started the year ranked No. 31, climbing her way up to No. 9 the hard way — with quality wins against elite players, including a string of 10 consecutive victories versus top-10 players. That ended Wednesday versus Stephens.
That match was a compelling struggle, featuring the kind of high-risk tennis that makes Bertens so dangerous. She smacked 24 winners while committing 47 unforced errors (Stephens had 18 and 37, respectively). But the match, like so many featuring players like Bertens, hinged on a few key points.
Bertens’ brand of no-holds-barred tennis can be unnerving for anyone, especially on big occasions. It’s just matter of whether she can rattle an opponent who has not dropped a match this week.
No. 4 Karolina Pliskova
Power Ranking heading into WTA Finals: 4
Round-robin record: 2-1 (def. Kvitova, Wozniacki; loss, Svitolina)
Semifinal opponent: Stephens
Pliskova started great this week with a retribution win against the woman who ousted her in the semifinals last year, Wozniacki. Pliskova’s massive serve enabled her to save all 10 break points she faced. But you rarely win major tournaments against top players with offense alone.
In Pliskova’s second outing, she lost a marathon 15-minute minute, 10-deuce game in the first set to Svitolina, mainly because of the Czech’s return of serve — notably her inability to convert any of six break points. “This game, I could have won it, it could be different, but it was not,” Pliskova said afterward. “Maybe I should not think about it too much, because I think it had a big influence on the first set.”
Pliskova still qualified, beating countrywoman Petra Kvitova (0-3), but the prognosis is clear: A gifted defender like Stephens will always pose questions Pliskova might not be able to answer.
Semifinal predictions
Stephens def. Pliskova (Stephens leads series 2-1): The only way for Pliskova to win is if she has an outrageously good serving day and Stephens contributes by playing poorly or freezing up in tiebreakers. Stephens in two sets.
Bertens def. Svitolina (series tied 1-1): Even though we have Svitolina ranked higher here based on how she’s played this week, we’re calling for the upset. Svitolina has historically faltered in pressure situations. Bertens, on the other hand, seems to love stepping up. Bertens in three close sets.
Final prediction
Stephens def. Bertens (Stephens leads series tied 2-0): They played a close one in the round robins, and there’s little reason to think the outcome won’t be similar Sunday.
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