the 4-team playoff could be a factor in this?It is in a several different ways.
Great stuff. I wonder what Wisconsin's best decade is. Probably the one we're in.Probably. It takes a LOT of data entry to set this up but once it is set up it is pretty easy to maintain. If I ever get slow at work again I'll get B1G teams entered.
What was Wisconsin's worst decade? The 1980s, thereabouts?It was going decent until Dave McClain died. I'm guessing a stretch from the mid 60's to the mid 70's was the worst. There are rough spots throughout.
I wondered about UGA and checked 2011-2020 and got this:8 win seasons aren't enuff
(https://i.imgur.com/7QRajuD.png)
Not bad of course, but not "elite". The first five were under Richt and you can see he was doing fairly well, Smart had three good years.
I wondered about UGA and checked 2011-2020 and got this:Comparison to the 15 teams that I have rolling 10-year records for:
(https://i.imgur.com/7QRajuD.png)
Not bad of course, but not "elite". The first five were under Richt and you can see he was doing fairly well, Smart had three good years.
8 win seasons aren't enuffRicht was fired after successive ten win seasons. The metric for the elite teams is however NCs, anything less is less. I remember when making a major bowl game was a great season. What will be the top non-playoff bowl game now? The Tangerine or whatever it will be called?
ask Bo Pelini
Many of those Wisconsin wins are against the Wolverines, so it all evens out.Wisconsin has displaced Michigan in the conference's pecking order, but both are still really great at losing to fOSU.
2011-2020 UW is .740. Not too shabby. Many of those losses are to Ohio State too... blerp...not shabby a tall
Wisconsin has displaced Michigan in the conference's pecking order . . .I wish this were true for two reasons:
Do casual fans confer helmetosity? I could argue they do. And media types, who are casual fans.We have had a lot of discussions about it here and a couple touchstones that we have come up with to "measure" helmetosity are these:
Do casual fans confer helmetosity? I could argue they do. And media types, who are casual fans.Interestingly, way back in 2007 when Stewart Mandel did his first Kings, Barons, Knights, and Peasants column (https://www.si.com/college/2007/08/08/program-pecking-order-bcs-teams-hierarchy) your school was the one that had kicked off the whole discussion. A PSU fan asked Mandel to expound on the "national prestige" of PSU vs UGA and Mandel responded that even though UGA had been MUCH better than PSU over the years leading up to that time, he still thought of PSU as a "national power" and did NOT think of UGA in the same category.
I never said Wisconsin is a helmet school. All I meant was that UW is a better program than Michigan.I didn't mean to be argumentative, it is a hazy concept.
I had just assumed that Penn St was the second best Big Ten team over that time period. It is sort of surprising that they are not even in the discussion, but not as surprising as Michigan being part of that discussion.Since PSU joined in 1993 (28 seasons from 1993-2020):
Does the "Club of Helmets" have a fixed number as a limit?I agree with @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) :
don't think soI also agree with @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) :
Pretty hard to get kicked out of that club.Some of the Michigan fans have argued that the "Helmets" were permanently set as of the 1970's and can never change. I strongly disagree with this. Minnesota was a "helmet" in the early days of CFB up until WWII and they clearly are NOT now. I think that the same thing can and will happen to teams that we think of as helmets today.
This is some ftbobs level analysis.This is a great site (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/index.cfm#.YPhU_WhKi71) for anything you want to look up involving AP Polls. Not only can you look at EVERY single individual AP Poll ever released (all 1,185 from the first one released October 19, 1936 [MN was #1] to the 2020 final poll) but you can also look at things by year or group of years or look at team histories.
AP top-10:
- 322 (69.1%) Ohio State, first nationally
- 171 (36.7%) Nebraska, eighth nationally
- 139 (29.8%) Penn State, tied for 14th/15th nationally
- 139 (29.8%) Michigan, tied for 14th/15th nationally
- 109 (23.4%) Wisconsin, 19th nationally
So, in 28 years, OSU has been in the top ten for over 2/3rds the times rankings came out. Whoever is second nationally is probably in the 40s????
Since PSU joined in 1993 (28 seasons from 1993-2020):It's tough to put a lot of stock in this, because some teams are overrated consistently, to start the season. Looking at #2 here.
AP Appearances:
- 428 (91.8%) Ohio State, first nationally
- 351 (75.3%) Michigan, fourth nationally
- 288 (61.8%) Wisconsin, 12th nationally
- 282 (60.5%) Nebraska, 14th nationally
- 268 (57.5%) Penn State, 18th nationally
- 166 (35.6%) Michigan State, 27th nationally
- 153 (32.8%) Iowa, tied for 29th/30th nationally
I never said Wisconsin is a helmet school. All I meant was that UW is a better program than Michigan.And I think that's true. Since Alvarez started coaching and then since he took over the AD position, Wisconsin IMHO has been better-managed as a program than Michigan. They formulated an identity that allowed them somewhat of a zig while others zagged, and they've managed to maintain and execute to that identity ever since. Michigan went spread-to-run, then whatever Hoke did, and then got a micromanager at the helm who can't get out of his own way.
[th][/th] [th]FINAL VS. PRESEASON RANK[/th] | ||||
[th]TEAM▲▼[/th] [th]AVG. PRESEASON RANK▲▼[/th] [th]SAME▲▼[/th] [th]BETTER▲▼[/th] [th]WORSE▲▼[/th] | ||||
Notre Dame | 25.1 | 10% | 20% | 70% |
Texas | 13.4 | 10 | 20 | 70 |
Florida State | 9.4 | 10 | 20 | 70 |
Penn State | 25.2 | 5 | 25 | 70 |
Florida | 12.0 | 0 | 30 | 70 |
Ohio State | 8.0 | 5 | 30 | 65 |
Nebraska | 19.1 | 0 | 35 | 65 |
LSU | 12.2 | 0 | 35 | 65 |
Miami (Fla.) | 17.7 | 15 | 25 | 60 |
Tennessee | 15.9 | 15 | 25 | 60 |
Oklahoma | 6.6 | 15 | 25 | 60 |
Michigan | 15.0 | 10 | 30 | 60 |
Southern California | 13.2 | 10 | 30 | 60 |
Virginia Tech | 17.6 | 5 | 35 | 60 |
West Virginia | 25.9 | 10 | 35 | 55 |
Texas A&M | 25.2 | 10 | 35 | 55 |
Alabama | 15.1 | 5 | 40 | 55 |
BYU | 33.0 | 15 | 35 | 50 |
Georgia Tech | 27.3 | 10 | 40 | 50 |
Georgia | 13.8 | 5 | 45 | 50 |
South Carolina | 26.9 | 20 | 35 | 45 |
Oklahoma State | 26.3 | 20 | 35 | 45 |
Michigan State | 22.7 | 20 | 35 | 45 |
Arkansas | 31.1 | 10 | 45 | 45 |
Auburn | 20.6 | 5 | 50 | 45 |
Wisconsin | 19.1 | 0 | 55 | 45 |
Mississippi | 29.2 | 20 | 40 | 40 |
TCU | 22.2 | 20 | 40 | 40 |
Utah | 30.5 | 5 | 55 | 40 |
Oregon | 18.9 | 0 | 60 | 40 |
Boise State | 25.3 | 15 | 50 | 35 |
Clemson | 21.1 | 15 | 50 | 35 |
One good coach for Michigan and they're "back".Back to what?
I wondered about UGA and checked 2011-2020 and got this:I saw a thing that showed Smart's record thus far is 1 game different than Richt's was in the same timeframe in his start at UGA.
(https://i.imgur.com/7QRajuD.png)
Not bad of course, but not "elite". The first five were under Richt and you can see he was doing fairly well, Smart had three good years.
That could be an influence for teams that consistently end up ranked lower at the end of the year than they started.I generally love 538's stuff but I'm REALLY not a fan of the way they did this comparison. I think the more important question than how often a team under or over achieved relative to preseason ranking is "by how much"?
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August? | FiveThirtyEight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-college-football-teams-are-always-overrated-in-august/)
reseason darlings that fail to live up to hype
Teams that received votes* in either the preseason or final AP Top 25 Poll in at least 16 seasons, 1997-2016