CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 08, 2026, 10:48:15 AM
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Until 2005 these two blue bloods had never met. Then they played three games in four seasons from 2005-2008 and this will be the third game in the last three seasons. Ohio State leads the series 3-2:
- #2 Texas 25, #4 Ohio State 22 in Columbus on September 10, 2005
- #1 Ohio State 24, #2 Texas 7 in Austin on September 9, 2006
- #3 Texas 24, #10 Ohio State 21 in the Fiesta Bowl on January 5, 2009
- #8 Ohio State 28, #5 Texas 14 in the Cotton Bowl CFP Semi-Final on January 10, 2025
- #3 Ohio State 14, #1 Texas 7 in Columbus on August 30, 2025
- #1 Ohio State vs #4 Texas in Austin on September 12, 2026
ESPN Gameday will be there. This will be Ohio State's 70th and Texas' 30th appearance on Gameday good for 1st and 12th respectively. This will be Texas' 12th time hosting which will move them into a tie with Notre Dame and Tennessee for 7th.
For the fourth time in six meetings this will be a top-5 matchup and unless Ohio State drops the top spot later today this will be the third time in six meetings that the #1 team has been involved.
Edit to add current rankings.
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Didn't catch OSU. Probably wouldn't tell me much anyway. Arch looked better against a cupcake than he looked last year against cupcakes. Also doesn't tell me much, except that I still think he had some kind of injury last year, that he's over now. For a couple of reasons, I don't buy the "He was just inexperienced, nervous, and short-armed a bunch of throws last year."
They both blew out overmatched teams the way a good team should, so I understand the close spread. Still, don't know enough about either team yet to have much of an opinion.
And of course, I don't know their rosters at all, because, why bother anymore?
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Can't really predict a Sarkisian-coached Texas team to beat Ohio State. Or Georgia.
I'd say Buckeyes win by 10-14.
I do think there will be a decent amount of scoring, these offenses are loaded.
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Weather outlook?
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I'd say Buckeyes win by 10-14.
Sandbagger ;)
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High of 96 and sunny throughout the day. My guess is around 93 at kickoff at 6:30, field will be entirely shaded at that point. It'll still be 86-88 when the game is over. They're saying there's a 35% chance of rain in the evening, 35% in Austin means it won't rain at all.
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I predict less of a slog for both teams compared to the last two.
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So hard to tell what a team is after one game, especially a cupcake.
at least on paper these rosters seem very even. Based on that, I always go with the Home team.
going to say Texas 27 -Ohio State 23
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There might not be another series in all of College Football that has had such incredibly high-end match-ups:
(https://i.imgur.com/Ogqmgbz.png)
Measured by College Gameday appearances:
All four regular season match-ups (includes the upcoming game) have been the Gameday game along with the CFP Semi-Final during the 2024 season.
The only tOSU/Texas game that did not have significant NC implications was the 2009 Fiesta Bowl (2008 season). That was the year when Texas, Oklahoma, and TxTech all tied for the B12S Championship with one loss each (TX>OU>TxTech>TX) and Oklahoma got the B12CG and BCSNCG invitation depsite losing to Texas.
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this is going to be one of the best games all regular season imo.
having said that....F@!* Ohio....Texas by a billion....Hook 'Em.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W41tB1nkQtI
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Amazingly, utee94 was already a t-shirt Michigan fan long before Michigan playing games against Oklahoma, or UT ever playing Ohio State.
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Amazingly, utee94 was already a t-shirt Michigan fan long before Michigan playing games against Oklahoma, or UT ever playing Ohio State.
Me too.
(https://i.imgur.com/7BHVdV8.jpeg)
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Yup. But it was also before all of the recent squirreliness and cheating.
Still, the dirt burglars have been cheating longer and harder than Michigan could ever dream of, so if I'm going to root for the lesser of two evils, it's absolutely M.
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Fair 'nuff on OU.
I'm sure you know this, but in your household battle you appear to be increasingly losing, when the smack talk starts for real, it's worth reminding them that the Aggies have a history of chicanery that would make Alabama blush.
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Yup. But it was also before all of the recent squirreliness and cheating.
Still, the dirt burglars have been cheating longer and harder than Michigan could ever dream of, so if I'm going to root for the lesser of two evils, it's absolutely M.
(https://i.imgur.com/oArWmMZ.jpeg)
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Fair 'nuff on OU.
I'm sure you know this, but in your household battle you appear to be increasingly losing, when the smack talk starts for real, it's worth reminding them that the Aggies have a history of chicanery that would make Alabama blush.
While true, they all follow the details of the Aggie program so little, they wouldn't even know what I was talking about. It would just sound like gibberish to them.
But I'll never forget, that's for sure...
(https://preview.redd.it/eric-dickerson-was-definition-of-generational-running-back-v0-138owft6r7nh1.jpeg?width=506&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c9e6edb2c4e8467601465b88180022e1a1ba7d58)
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Buckeye's O-line looked like a sieve the 1st Qtr and some of the 2nd. Not certain why with a whole off season to address that problem they seemingly were still stubbing their toes. Not Familiar with the Horns D front but fairly certain with that roster they'll exploit that in a way that a 2025 Ball St with their 3–5 conference record in the MAC did not
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I'll GUESS Texas 27 Ohio State 20, just for fun.
I doubt either team scores more than 35 without a ton of TOs going their way. Both probably score over 17.
Should be interesting, I think.
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Texas defense gave up some embarrassing drives, yards, and a first-half score, to an opponent that should have been woefully outmatched. I'm not convinced our lineacker/secondary demons of last year have been exorcised and The Ohio State University has more than enough tools to exploit that.
I'm hoping for a big improvement from the defense from week 1 to week 2.
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I'm just hoping the game is in English this week.
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Buckeye's O-line looked like a sieve the 1st Qtr and some of the 2nd. Not certain why with a whole off season to address that problem they seemingly were still stubbing their toes. Not Familiar with the Horns D front but fairly certain with that roster they'll exploit that in a way that a 2025 Ball St with their 3–5 conference record in the MAC did not
I don't know what to make of it. Actually that even goes back to last year. The O-Line looked phenomenal against TTUN. Not only was Sayin not sacked, he was never knocked down nor even hurried, at all. Given our issues with Michigan's D-Line the few years prior to that, the performance in Ann Arbor last November had me feeling pretty good about our O-Line heading into the B1GCG but then Indiana followed by Miami in the CFP both made our O-Line look atrocious.
So last Saturday they came out and looked atrocious for about the first 20 minutes then suddenly clicked and looked great the rest of the way (granted, against a bad MAC team). So now what?
Texas defense gave up some embarrassing drives, yards, and a first-half score, to an opponent that should have been woefully outmatched. I'm not convinced our lineacker/secondary demons of last year have been exorcised and The Ohio State University has more than enough tools to exploit that.
If Texas has some issues in their defensive backfield the Buckeyes certainly have the tools to exploit that . . . IF the Ohio State O-Line can give Sayin time to do so but that is a BIG "if". My guess is that the game comes down to that: If Sayin has time to drop back and find the open guy there will be open guys and Ohio State will score enough to win. If not then the home team will have a celebration when the clock hits 00:00 (and this is Texas not Michigan so it should only hit 00:00 once).
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It's almost as if games are won or lost in the lines .....
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(https://i.imgur.com/pvIWt7d.jpeg)
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I am quite surprised to wake up and learn that Texas came back. huh.
My score guess was fairly close.
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Well the Buckeyes are in good company in the BIG. As the Ducks usually lay an egg in play-off or Bowl games, not to a team that lost by 14 to Tulsa. Blue Bloods? More like blue balls. :cheer:
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Nah hell, the Buckeyes are absolutely loaded. Texas "shut down" Smith in the second half to the tune of him only getting something like 57 yards, and 164 total. He's better than advertised and Sayin is pretty darn good too. Your lines were pushing ours around for most of the day. Not sure what Texas figured out or put together over the final 20 minutes but that game was something else.
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This is pretty good Texas comeback
https://twitter.com/Texpatriot26/status/2098986089868398860/video/1
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OSU with a 97.6% chance to win as they punt with 5:47 left in the 3Q.
This was a messy-ass comeback.
Muff the punt return, but recover the ball.
Fumbles again in OSU territory.
Scores a TD.
OSU starts going 3-and-out like it's their hobby.
OSU misses a FG...which would have sealed the game. 45 yds. VERY makable. Nope.
Scores another TD.
I'm 99% sure they did fumble the play before the game-winning TD, but there was no way to see for sure, even on a review.
But Texas wins.
I guess the SEC is the best conference in the whole wide world again. :57:
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Nah hell, the Buckeyes are absolutely loaded. Texas "shut down" Smith in the second half to the tune of him only getting something like 57 yards, and 164 total. He's better than advertised and Sayin is pretty darn good too. Your lines were pushing ours around for most of the day. Not sure what Texas figured out or put together over the final 20 minutes but that game was something else.
Smith is retarded good. He is fucking insanely talented.
Ohio State just shits out WRs. It is absolutely fucking ridiculous. Didn’t think it could possibly get any better after MH Jr. I was wrong.
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While true, they all follow the details of the Aggie program so little, they wouldn't even know what I was talking about. It would just sound like gibberish to them.
But I'll never forget, that's for sure...
(https://preview.redd.it/eric-dickerson-was-definition-of-generational-running-back-v0-138owft6r7nh1.jpeg?width=506&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c9e6edb2c4e8467601465b88180022e1a1ba7d58)
Jesus. That’s rich coming from an LSU fan, comparing A&M to Alabama. And speaking of chicanery, didn’t UT have the original Chad Powers back in the 90’s?
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Nah hell, the Buckeyes are absolutely loaded. Texas "shut down" Smith in the second half to the tune of him only getting something like 57 yards, and 164 total. He's better than advertised and Sayin is pretty darn good too. Your lines were pushing ours around for most of the day. Not sure what Texas figured out or put together over the final 20 minutes but that game was something else.
Hell of a game. Congratulations to the Horns
I think they going to well this season!
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Just looking ahead at the Buckeyes’ schedule…very tough. Road games at Iowa, Indiana, and USC. Oregon and Michigan at home. If the get thru that without dropping another…
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Well, they have 2 mulligans, so that makes it easier. 1 left to go before any actual consequences occur.
Thanks, new college football!!!
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Just looking ahead at the Buckeyes’ schedule…very tough. Road games at Iowa, Indiana, and USC. Oregon and Michigan at home. If the get thru that without dropping another…
road games at Iowa are always an f'ing BITCH but let's be real- Ohio State is way more talented than Iowa. Probably stupid to doubt Cigarette but not really sure how good Indiana will be this year and I'll believe the USC hype when I see it.
Oregon not looking like the challenge everyone thought pre-season, and while Michigan looks to have an excellent defense I don't know if you're aware but their offense looks like straight hot dog water.
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Texas has a pretty tough schedule as well. Games @LSU @Tennessee @ Texas A&M, other games against Ole Miss at home and Oklahoma in Dallas. Then there's games against Florida at home, the team that Texas didn't solve last year, and a potentially tough Mizzou on the road.
As a college football fan in general I love it. As a Texas Longhorns fan I can't help but wish for something a little easier to navigate toward the postseason.
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Ryan Day in the 4th QTR....
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSERjQIXAAEmYMH?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Well, they have 2 mulligans, so that makes it easier. 1 left to go before any actual consequences occur.
Thanks, new college football!!!
Sure. Just schedule patsy games, and any loss eliminates you. Your view of it anyway.
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A 10-2 Ohio State is very probably a playoff team.
At 9-3, they probably wish they had played Directional Texas.
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Now imagine Texas finishes 9-3, they probably are glad they have the OSU win.
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Now imagine Texas finishes 9-3, they probably are glad they have the OSU win.
Last year a 9-3 Texas had wins over playoff OU, playoff Texas A&M, and top 15 ranked Vanderbilt-- the best totality of wins of any team in the country-- and didn't get in.
If Texas loses 3 this year it's almost certain they're out. The committee has made this clear. W/L is what matters, not quality of wins.
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It of course hinges on who else it competing for a slot. But, your point is well taken.
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https://twitter.com/BBsBigHouse1/status/2098973354065568208?s=20
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Um no, read the TEXAS boards last week - they're keeping M* at arm's length
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Meh, the Longhorn message boards just like all other partisan message boards are full of complete idiots. I had to quit surlyhorns about 8 months ago because they're just so damn stupid.
In real life plenty of Longhorn fans favor Michigan, but more importanly ALL Longhorn fans loathe OU.
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Meh, the Longhorn message boards just like all other partisan message boards are full of complete idiots. I had to quit surlyhorns about 8 months ago because they're just so damn stupid.
In real life plenty of Longhorn fans favor Michigan, but more importanly ALL Longhorn fans loathe OU.
the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
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The UGA message boards are full of truly brilliant people.
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Actually, I don't know because I don't peruse them...
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the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
ah 3rd party smack,quoting Stalin no shocker from fans of a leftist institution ;D
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I often ponder, briefly, as pondering deeply is not my thing, if Texas and OSU played 100 times, who would win the most games (in Texas' statdium)?
Most would agree it would be pretty close to 50-50, randomly, one team would probably win ~53 . Is that the better team? Or would it be statistical wobble?
Maybe one side really is better, I dunno, but I note the AP poll dropped OSU to 6, I think, and bumped Texas to 1, implying they "think"? the difference is consequential. Maybe they could have put Texas at 1 and OSU at 2, I'd be find with that, but of course, the poll people look at losses.
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Quite a game. It ended up where I thought it would (close), but for three quarters I thought my prediction was cooked. I did not see the 4th quarter coming. When it was 20-3 or whatever, I had virtually zero faith Texas could score three unanswered TDs.
I was halfheartedly trying to watch another game on my phone simultaneously, so I feel like I need to rewatch that 4th quarter to more fully understand exactly what happened. A buddy texted me right near the end and said he saw Texas had come back and asked how it happened. I texted him--truthfully--I'm really not sure. I've been watching, and I'm not exactly sure what to say. They started scoring, OSU quit. Why, exactly, I might need another pass.
That was one of the most "what-if" games I've seen in a while. What if Texas didn't repeatedly shoot itself in the foot for half+ the game? What if OSU made the FG? Some other what-ifs I can't think of atm.
My wife probably needs blood pressure medication after that. She's a talker when she's nervous about games, and she chattered incessantly through the whole thing. I told her to hush up at one point, thankfully I managed to avoid having to sleep on the couch.
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It reminds me a bit of the OSU-UGA game. I turned it off and went to bed, then my kid called me after I was asleep to say UGA came back and won.
This isn't a great look for Day, I think he was coach back then.
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Quite a game. It ended up where I thought it would (close), but for three quarters I thought my prediction was cooked. I did not see the 4th quarter coming. When it was 20-3 or whatever, I had virtually zero faith Texas could score three unanswered TDs.
I was halfheartedly trying to watch another game on my phone simultaneously, so I feel like I need to rewatch that 4th quarter to more fully understand exactly what happened. A buddy texted me right near the end and said he saw Texas had come back and asked how it happened. I texted him--truthfully--I'm really not sure. I've been watching, and I'm not exactly sure what to say. They started scoring, OSU quit. Why, exactly, I might need another pass.
That was one of the most "what-if" games I've seen in a while. What if Texas didn't repeatedly shoot itself in the foot for half+ the game? What if OSU made the FG? Some other what-ifs I can't think of atm.
My wife probably needs blood pressure medication after that. She's a talker when she's nervous about games, and she chattered incessantly through the whole thing. I told her to hush up at one point, thankfully I managed to avoid having to sleep on the couch.
I watched it, almost in it's entirety. I remember thinking, when the score was still 20-3, that it could end up being a blow-out on the score board but OSU hadn't really impressed me and they weren't really dominating, they just got really lucky on a couple of plays.
The interception in the 1st quarter. The Texas receiver was in a diving catch, ball hit him in the chest/hands, somehow bounces up (very low % catch and he almost pulled it in), and the OSU DB was right there to pluck it out of the air. They still had to move the ball down field, which they did. I'd almost say it was like the outcome of a punt with maybe a 20 yard return.
OSU had a couple of good drives in the first half, but they were gifted a fumble on Texas' first play, and then a fluky INT on the next series. OSU still had to drive 80 yards for the score, it wasn't an INT and easy score.
It almost seems like OSU kinda of relaxed a little bit on both O and D, like they felt like the game was in hand. In the 3rd quarter, they were mostly punting but had a good drive that ended in a FG. It should be noted here that thy went for it on 4th down in the first half and did not succeed.
I think on one of the drives in the 3rd quarter the QB had a man open for a TD, maybe on the last FG or maybe the last FG attempt. It would have been a sure TD, dude was wide open and the ball was high, missed him by 5-10 yards or whatever. You could tell the QB knew it too, I think if anything it messed up his confidence.
I remember thinking at this point, if those boys from Ohio think this is over, it ain't. Not by a long shot. If Texas can get momentum, they can score 2 TD and make a game of it. Which they did. I think by this time OSU was almost out of gas on D, but Texas had to convert 2 4th down plays on separate drives.
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A few takes after having a few days for it to sink in:
First it was amazing how much the luck switched. I'm not blaming the loss on 'luck'. I actually think it more-or-less balanced out but it was ALL on tOSU's side early and ALL on Texas' side late. Two plays specifically:
The INT by tOSU early. That play is usually an incomplete pass, maybe a catch but the WR got under it and it somehow miraculously bounced right to the DB.
The muffed punt late. That play is almost always recovered by the punting team.
My point, Ohio State never really looked as much better than Texas as the 23-3 score indicated but I also don't think they looked as much worse as the 21-0 run at the end indicated.
Second, I think that Ryan Day made a LOT of decisions that are EASY to question in hindsight but that were probably the mathematically correct decision in real time. Consider this example: Suppose you went to Vegas and I told you that the math says that you have to hit on 12 at a Blackjack table so you did, got a 10 and busted out and lost. That doesn't mean that my advice to hit on 12 was bad. It wasn't bad advice. It was the mathematically correct decision but at the end of the day you are playing the probabilities and those are probabilities not certainties so you aren't ALWAYS going to win even if you make the mathematically right call.
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Anyways, I'm not sure if OSU changed their tactics or what, but they gave Manning all day to throw, and he picked them apart for the most part. The running game started to click as well.
As i previously stated, OSU had em 4th and whatever a couple of times and couldn't stop em. They also missed a FG that would have sealed the game. I remember seeing it sail wide, I pretty much thought "Game On".
I'm curious what the ratings on this game will be, it has to be one of the top rated CFB games all year.
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A few takes after having a few days for it to sink in:
First it was amazing how much the luck switched. I'm not blaming the loss on 'luck'. I actually think it more-or-less balanced out but it was ALL on tOSU's side early and ALL on Texas' side late. Two plays specifically:
The INT by tOSU early. That play is usually an incomplete pass, maybe a catch but the WR got under it and it somehow miraculously bounced right to the DB.
The muffed punt late. That play is almost always recovered by the punting team.
My point, Ohio State never really looked as much better than Texas as the 23-3 score indicated but I also don't think they looked as much worse as the 21-0 run at the end indicated.
Second, I think that Ryan Day made a LOT of decisions that are EASY to question in hindsight but that were probably the mathematically correct decision in real time. Consider this example: Suppose you went to Vegas and I told you that the math says that you have to hit on 12 at a Blackjack table so you did, got a 10 and busted out and lost. That doesn't mean that my advice to hit on 12 was bad. It wasn't bad advice. It was the mathematically correct decision but at the end of the day you are playing the probabilities and those are probabilities not certainties so you aren't ALWAYS going to win even if you make the mathematically right call.
For sure. One or two plays, the game would have been vastly different. Also, and not sure how you felt about it, it looked like OSU just sorta either ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, or Texas found an extra gear or something. But indeed, Texas had to play perfect, and OSU only had to be average, and miss a FG to lose.
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Yeah every single ball bounced extremely poorly for Texas in the first 2.5 quarters, and then pretty much the opposite was true for the final 1.5 quarters. It was odd.
Coincidentally or maybe not, Sark also stopped being too cute with the playcalling at about that time, and went a little more smash-mouth. That slow developing reverse on the 4th down in the 1st half was stupid and embarrassing, and then all of those super-slow and super-predictable WR screens were getting blown up as well. The crowd began actively booing the playcalling, which I didn't participate in and don't approve of, but it was also hard to blame them.
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For sure. One or two plays, the game would have been vastly different. Also, and not sure how you felt about it, it looked like OSU just sorta either ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, or Texas found an extra gear or something. But indeed, Texas had to play perfect, and OSU only had to be average, and miss a FG to lose.
I think Texas' whole attitude and confidence switched on that 4th and 9 (I think it was 9). It was a seriously gutsy call by Sark. I looked it up, it was 4th and 9 with 2:21 to go in the THIRD quarter.
Texas' two prior 2nd half drives went:
- 4 plays, 17 yards, 1:55
- 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:17
Meanwhile Ohio State had a decent drive (6 plays, 36 yards, punt) and a scoring drive (7 plays, 43 yards, FG) to extend the lead to 20 at 23-3.
It feels desperate to go for it on 4th and 9 in your own territory in the third quarter. Truth be told, it WAS desperate. Most teams don't go for it there but most teams don't rally from down by 20. If Texas punts there they just don't have enough time to win without some miracles so I think Sark decided to go for what was realistically a make-or-break moment. If Texas had failed to convert that, they'd have been cooked.
Here is the bigger point, I think: The Broadcast showed Manning's face after the incompletion on 3rd and 9. He was dejected. Of course he was. I think they were out of confidence and just listless. Sark's decision there changed all of that. Manning hit the TE for 9 to get the 1st down in Ohio State territory then hit him again for 22 on the next play to get into scoring position. Texas went on to score and it was 23-10. They never looked back.
On the Ohio State side that play had the opposite effect. After the 3rd and 9 incompletion they were celebrating not only the successful 3rd down stop but basically celebrating the win because they were assuming that Texas would punt and at that point Texas would have been down 20 without the ball going into the 4th quarter. It would have been basically over.
I think Ohio State's defense DID run out of gas but I chalk that up to the ToP issue. Early in the second half Ohio State was winning (ToP and everything else):
- tOSU: Punt: 6 plays, 36 yards, 3:05
- TX: Punt: 4 plays, 17 yards, 1:55
- tOSU: FG: 7 plays, 43 yards, 1:51
- TX: Punt: 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:17
In those first four possessions of the second half Ohio State outscored Texas 3-0, outgained them 79-18, and won ToP 4:56 to 3:12. From there:
- tOSU: Punt: 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:05
- TX: TD: 15 plays, 91 yards, 6:28
- tOSU: Punt: 3 plays, 6 yards, 1:33
- TX: TD: 13 plays, 72 yards, 5:32
- tOSU: Missed FG: 7 plays, 48 yards, 2:28
In those five possessions Texas outscored Ohio State 14-0, outgained them 163-55, and won ToP 12:00 to 5:06 despite only having two possessions to Ohio State's three in that stretch. When Ohio State's defense went back on the field again to try to defend a now one-score lead they were absolutely gassed.
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Coincidentally or maybe not, Sark also stopped being too cute with the playcalling at about that time, and went a little more smash-mouth. That slow developing reverse on the 4th down in the 1st half was stupid and embarrassing, and then all of those super-slow and super-predictable WR screens were getting blown up as well. The crowd began actively booing the playcalling, which I didn't participate in and don't approve of, but it was also hard to blame them.
They are awful. Situationally, those can be very useful. They can even be a staple (Jimbo Fisher in his best LSU/FSU/A&M offenses).....if you can execute them well and get elite blocking from your WRs. UT just isn't getting that. They're poorly executed, and as you say, they're slow. It feels like everybody would be better served and wouldn't risk injury on a play if Arch just took the snap in the shotgun and knelt down for a 4 yard loss.
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My point, Ohio State never really looked as much better than Texas as the 23-3 score indicated but I also don't think they looked as much worse as the 21-0 run at the end indicated.
Second, I think that Ryan Day made a LOT of decisions that are EASY to question in hindsight but that were probably the mathematically correct decision in real time. Consider this example: Suppose you went to Vegas and I told you that the math says that you have to hit on 12 at a Blackjack table so you did, got a 10 and busted out and lost. That doesn't mean that my advice to hit on 12 was bad. It wasn't bad advice. It was the mathematically correct decision but at the end of the day you are playing the probabilities and those are probabilities not certainties so you aren't ALWAYS going to win even if you make the mathematically right call.
Agree with the first paragraph.
Second paragraph, I think that's a general and common trap of fandom. Phillip Fulmer had a great quote that stuck with me years ago, he said "The 'big game' is the one you lose." In context, the article was talking about how fans tend to think their coach can't win the big game, but it's partly because once you beat a team, well then, that team wasn't so tough after all, but if you lose to them, it was a big game and you couldn't win it.
I recall some old UGA game vs. Saban's Bama team where Richt (or maybe Kirby) appeared to have them dead to rights if they could just get 5 more yards. Maybe a pass is called, it's incomplete, and it costs them, and everybody who wants to see the Bama beast slain screams "You idiot! Why would you throw it there??? Run the damn ball!!" Well, because they needed 5 yards. If UGA called a run and Bama stuffed that before 5 yards, people would simply have yelled "You idiot! Why would you run it there? Throw the damn ball!!" I'm sure we've all seen a lot of games like that.
In retrospect, everything that didn't work feels like a stupid call. In retrospect, everything that works makes you a genius.
Unless you're Les Miles, in which case a sustained pattern of aggressive playcalling over a decade wins you games at an astonishing rate, but you're still a Gambler and an Idiot
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FYI one thing that I don't think fans (or coaches) understand about analytics is that sometimes the decision that wins more games on average is a worse decision.
For example, this is very true in the playoffs when you're in "win or go home" mode.
I.e. the aggressive call by Day to go for it on 4th and 2 in deep Texas territory when they're up 10-0 is a great call in week 2. In the CFP semifinal, it's possible that it's a hell of a lot smarter to kick the FG and take the points.
Because a loss in week 2 doesn't eliminate you from a chance to win a NC. A loss in the CFP semifinal does.
I don't think a lot of fans understand that nuance.
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Yeah every single ball bounced extremely poorly for Texas in the first 2.5 quarters, and then pretty much the opposite was true for the final 1.5 quarters. It was odd.
Coincidentally or maybe not, Sark also stopped being too cute with the playcalling at about that time, and went a little more smash-mouth. That slow developing reverse on the 4th down in the 1st half was stupid and embarrassing, and then all of those super-slow and super-predictable WR screens were getting blown up as well. The crowd began actively booing the playcalling, which I didn't participate in and don't approve of, but it was also hard to blame them.
I know what happened to turn the tide.
My wife and another couple brought beers over to our new neighbors' garage, where they had their Longhorn flag flying and the game on. I didn't really ask how a Dodge City native became a Texas fan--maybe he's a descendant of the Texas cowboys and the Kansas who-ers from the cattle drives. Regardless, we got there at 23-3, and were all rooting on the Burnt Orange miracle comeback. I don't know why. I guess I'm nostalgic from the 2011 maxi van trip to watch the Collin Klein led purple kitties do what they used to do. Haven't forgotten how well we were treated.
So, congrats to Texas!
Condolences to the Buckeyes. Note that giving you Will Howard and cheering for them is a pretty recent mood.
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"Analytics" just isn't a very transparent paradigm, that I know of, in this context.
If you have 4th and 4 from your own 45 yard line, you're down by 4 with 3:52 to play and all three timeouts, there's "analytics" for that. But what exactly that data entails eludes me. At minimum, it's a grand average taken across all teams and all games, and it's a sheer, broad percentage. On the more honed side, maybe it entails data about your team specifically, what kind of plays you're good at, what you're not, what the defense has been good at stopping.....more finely tuned to how likely you are to get 4 yards, in this game right now, or whether you should even try, right now.
I've never heard much explanation as to what "the analytics" entails, who compiles them, their methodology, margin of error, etc. etc. If the former, seems you still need a heckuva lot of human judgement or those analytics will run you smooth into a brick wall. Some really bad, dumb decisions get made because people think "on average" means something it just doesn't to their situation.
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I know what happened to turn the tide.
And I know what created the tide in the first place 😬
Saturday morning I tried to calm my nervous wife and told her Texas was going to whip Ohio State good that evening. Alarmed, she said "Isn't that a jinx?" I told her she didn't believe in jinxes or incurring the wrath of the ECFGs, so it didn't matter. She said it didn't matter, I still believed it, so shouldn't I not have said that? I realized she was right, and spent the rest of the day trying to figure out how to placate the bastards. But they were more interested in teaching me about my hubris, even if not talking about my own team and just trying to get someone else to relax. They want us nervous. Bastards.
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And I know what created the tide in the first place 😬
Saturday morning I tried to calm my nervous wife and told her Texas was going to whip Ohio State good that evening. Alarmed, she said "Isn't that a jinx?" I told her she didn't believe in jinxes or incurring the wrath of the ECFGs, so it didn't matter. She said it didn't matter, I still believed it, so shouldn't I not have said that. I realized she was right, and spent the rest of the day trying to figure out how to placate the bastards. But they were more interested in teaching me about my hubris, even if not talking about my own team and just trying to get someone else to relax. They want us nervous. Bastards.
Must have been a whole bunch of Oregon fans that violated "rules" prior to last Saturday, huh?
I'm not saying a word about how The New Old School in Manhattan looks. Mighty Tulane has given us fits.
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I suppose that might be it.
But I think it was mostly when Jeremiah Smith did the horns-down. The ECFGs didn't take too kindly to that. He only got one more catch after that and Texas stormed back to win the game.
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I suppose that might be it.
But I think it was mostly when Jeremiah Smith did the horns-down. The ECFGs didn't take too kindly to that. He only got one more catch after that and Texas stormed back to win the game.
Quite possibly had nothing to do with me.
Last time I think I had an impact was leaving at halftime of the Oklahoma-K-State game when Baker Mayfield had put up 35 and we had zero, and watched in the parking lot as my Royals mounted a huge comeback against the Blue Jays. So, once every 11 years or so, seems to be.
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"Analytics" just isn't a very transparent paradigm, that I know of, in this context.
If you have 4th and 4 from your own 45 yard line, you're down by 4 with 3:52 to play and all three timeouts, there's "analytics" for that. But what exactly that data entails eludes me. At minimum, it's a grand average taken across all teams and all games, and it's a sheer, broad percentage. On the more honed side, maybe it entails data about your team specifically, what kind of plays you're good at, what you're not, what the defense has been good at stopping.....more finely tuned to how likely you are to get 4 yards, in this game right now, or whether you should even try, right now.
I've never heard much explanation as to what "the analytics" entails, who compiles them, their methodology, margin of error, etc. etc. If the former, seems you still need a heckuva lot of human judgement or those analytics will run you smooth into a brick wall. Some really bad, dumb decisions get made because people think "on average" means something it just doesn't to their situation.
IMHO analytics largely does entail averages, but most people who think they're outliers who the averages don't apply to... Aren't. In fact, the people who actually think they're average are largely the outliers :57:
But that's kinda my point. Knowing the averages can be REALLY useful information. It helps you to inform decision-making. It can sometimes give you information that flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but conventional wisdom often isn't very wise.
I think it really came into its own with Sabermetrics, popularized by the book and movie, Moneyball. The movie IMHO made the point really well... Baseball was full of old scouts who evaluated players based on eye tests and outdated box score statistics that missed out on the value that actually made a team win more games. Relying on the "analytics" rather than the traditional scouts seemed like crazy... Until it actually worked.
In football, what IMHO the analytics largely showed was that the sport was overly conservative, in both playcalling and decision-making. 2nd quarter, 4th and 1 from your own 40? Punt, obviously! You can't give the other team that field position! Except that the actual analytics showed that you'd have higher expected points going for it because of the likelihood of converting, even accounting for the fact that it exposed you to the downside risk of giving your opponent better field position if you failed to convert.
But it's a little bit different of a field when you're in baseball with 162 regular-season games and best-of-5 or best-of-7 series in the playoffs, compared to CFB where it's 12(+1?) regular season games and then a single-elimination playoff. A decision-making philosophy that over the course of the season maximizes your expected win total gives you the opportunity to make playoffs. A decision-making philosophy that increases your risk of losing THIS game may no longer make sense in a single-elimination playoff.
And that's where people lose the nuance. Going for it on 4th and 1 on your own 40 yard line in a regular season game can be smart, because consistently doing that over the course of the season might lead to an expectation of winning 1+ game more on average. But it can be stupid in a single-elimination playoff because if it increases your chance of losing THIS game by 8%, it means you very well might lose your opportunity to let averages work over time.
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I recall some old UGA game vs. Saban's Bama team where Richt (or maybe Kirby) appeared to have them dead to rights if they could just get 5 more yards. Maybe a pass is called, it's incomplete, and it costs them, and everybody who wants to see the Bama beast slain screams "You idiot! Why would you throw it there??? Run the damn ball!!" Well, because they needed 5 yards. If UGA called a run and Bama stuffed that before 5 yards, people would simply have yelled "You idiot! Why would you run it there? Throw the damn ball!!" I'm sure we've all seen a lot of games like that.
In retrospect, everything that didn't work feels like a stupid call. In retrospect, everything that works makes you a genius.
I had read a while back someone said - a coach I believe and I'm paraphrasing "A fan is someone who curses the refs, questions the coaches, criticizes the players then can't find his car after the game"
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as college football fans I think we over, analyze these things. the way I look at it two good teams got together and played a helluva game. One team was better, and won. Now the season moves on.
we could “what if” both sides to death.
what if Cam Coleman and Wingo catch those two early touchdown passes that were either overthrown or dropped? Maybe Texas wins comfortably
what if Sayin, the most accurate quarterback in the land, last season, hits that wide open McCuin for the walk in TD late in the 3rd? Could go on and on, but you get the point.
part that always amazes me is the idiots who are criticizing the coach of losing team, in this case Ryan Day.
Their kicker who was batting 100% from further away, misses the 45 yard that seals the game for Ohio State.
without a single change in coaching decisions, the conversation is different today and the coach is a genius 😂😂
The other thing that boggles my mind is how the bookies in Vegas get this stuff so correct so often. Be over and under for the game was 47 points and Ohio State was a one and a half point underdog 😳😳
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I had read a while back someone said - a coach I believe and I'm paraphrasing "A fan is someone who curses the refs, questions the coaches, criticizes the players then can't find his car after the game"
way too nice to be Bo Pelini
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IMO the 97 degrees at K.O. might have favored the Horns slightly when the normal average summer high temperature in Columbus, Ohio was 84°F. They were gassed at the end
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It was brutally hot no doubt. Even in the 4th quarter it was still probably 86 or 87 degrees.
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The other thing that boggles my mind is how the bookies in Vegas get this stuff so correct so often. Be over and under for the game was 47 points and Ohio State was a one and a half point underdog 😳😳
The wise guys didn't get the money to build all those fancy casinos by being wrong.
I agree, astonishing how often they get it this close:
- Texas -1.5, wins by 1.
- O/U 47, total final 47.
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The other thing that boggles my mind is how the bookies in Vegas get this stuff so correct so often. Be over and under for the game was 47 points and Ohio State was a one and a half point underdog 😳😳
This.
Especially with the over/under numbers. How in the hell....?
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IMO the 97 degrees at K.O. might have favored the Horns slightly when the normal average summer high temperature in Columbus, Ohio was 84°F. They were gassed at the end
It could be 65 degrees, if your offense is going 3-and-out every drive, your defense is going to get gassed.
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It could be 65 degrees, if your offense is going 3-and-out every drive, your defense is going to get gassed.
Sure but the heat could also be a contributing factor to why the Buckeye offense started going 3 and out. Ohio State was controlling the LOS on both sides of the ball in the first half. That reversed in the 4th quarter.
I don't know that heat/conditioning had anything to do with it, but it's a reasonable suggestion.
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I've never heard of that - an offense going cold bc of the heat. But ok.
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Players getting tired because of heat is new to you?
OK
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If Vegas "gets it wrong", do they make less money than when they nail it?
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The other thing that boggles my mind is how the bookies in Vegas get this stuff so correct so often. Be over and under for the game was 47 points and Ohio State was a one and a half point underdog 😳😳
The wise guys didn't get the money to build all those fancy casinos by being wrong.
I agree, astonishing how often they get it this close:
Ya well the Odds Makers mysteriously do an about face every-single-year-in the first-facking week of the NFL Season. The Chargers at 10.5 pt chalk say hello as my chances in the NFL Survivor Pool say Good-Bye. The last two seasons in our pools have ended in the 5th Week of the Season - all on the heaviest favorite tanking- losing outright. The wise guys are the very small % that beat the house and win these pools
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If Vegas "gets it wrong", do they make less money than when they nail it?
Vegas is handicapping the handicappers,knowing the public fawns all over the favs
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My guess is Vegas makes money on nearly every outcome, perhaps a few times they don't get the bets balanced.
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balanced?
Texas -1.5, wins by 1.
Wouldn't they make more $$$ if a huge percentage bet on Texas and they don't cover?
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If Vegas "gets it wrong", do they make less money than when they nail it?
I *THINK* so but it is dependent on someone else realizing, in advance, that they got it wrong.
As mentioned by someone else upthread, the house can make money on all outcomes but that is only *IF* the bets are balanced. Ie, if I'm a bookie and @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) bets $1,000 on Texas while @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) bets $1,000 on Ohio State then I'm set because those $1,000 bets are actually $1,100 to win $1,000 so:
- If Texas wins by 2 or more I pay $1,000 to utee94 and collect $1,100 from medinabuckeye1 - I make $100 net.
- If Texas wins by 1 or loses I pay $1,000 to medinabuckeye1 and collect $1,100 from utee94 - I make $100 net.
This ONLY works if the bets are balanced.
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balanced?
Texas -1.5, wins by 1.
Wouldn't they make more $$$ if a huge percentage bet on Texas and they don't cover?
They would, but . . .
The only way they can get more people to bet on Texas is to give Ohio State less points and if they had done that then Texas would have covered.
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Right, and if the bets come in too heavy on one side and that's the side that hits, then the casino has "uncovered" bets and has to pay them out of their own pockets. That's why they have to keep the betting balanced, to manage that risk, and that's why the betting line moves when heavy bets come in on one side or the other, to entice betting in the opposite direction.
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no risk, no gain
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I figure the time they are unbalanced and LOSE is offset by the time they are unbalanced and win.
So, they never lose over time. It's not possible without fraud or incompetence.
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They are awful. Situationally, those can be very useful. They can even be a staple (Jimbo Fisher in his best LSU/FSU/A&M offenses).....if you can execute them well and get elite blocking from your WRs. UT just isn't getting that. They're poorly executed, and as you say, they're slow. It feels like everybody would be better served and wouldn't risk injury on a play if Arch just took the snap in the shotgun and knelt down for a 4 yard loss.
This was one of the under-appreciated aspects of IUs succcess the last two years. WRs block. If you can’t or won’t block, you won’t play for Cig. Sarratt and Cooper were elite WR blockers. Donavan McCulley wouldn’t block and that’s why he went from WR1 under Tom Allen to WR6 under Cig.
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no risk, no gain
There's no need for them to assume risk, they make their money on the percentage, not the total.
I figure the time they are unbalanced and LOSE is offset by the time they are unbalanced and win.
So, they never lose over time. It's not possible without fraud or incompetence.
Sure, theoretically the wins or losses on uncovered bets would probably even out. But in practice I doubt it happens very often, because they actively react in real time and move the betting line, in order to keep it balanced.
In the olden days I assume your local bookie probably ended up with uncovered bets far more often than modern digitally controlled casino betting does.
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This ONLY works if the bets are balanced.
well yes and no as the line can move and still favor the House as those of us "Speculators" might not hedge against that move. Sports books start moving lines a few hours after the original lines are set as the wagering syndicates or "Sharps" set their own lines and reacte according causing the House to adjust
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The casino doesn't care about winning big. Predictable consistent income is the goal. If the bets are even, they can't lose. That's their ideal.
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Right. Unlike their customers, casinos are highly risk averse. They have no interest in actually placing bets on one side or the other, their only interest is in taking your money.
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Yup they'll take their consistent 10% week in/out