CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => SEC => Topic started by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2026, 08:01:54 AM
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I guess it's about that time, no?
UGA
The first two games are pastries.
Then @ Arkansas, I figure a tougher win than the spread, UGA 30 Arky 20
Oklahoma, they have a good D I hear, but in Athens, UGA 24 OU 10
Vandy, UGA 31 Vandy 13
@Alabama, Bama 24 UGA 20, I need to see it to change.
Auburn, UGA 41 Aubbie 17
Florida (in Atlanta) UGA 37 UF 17
@ Ole Miss OM 27 UGA 24
Mizzou UGA 45 Mizzou 10
@USCe UGA 41 USCe 17
GT UGA 45 Tech 20
So, 10-2, losing the two toughest games, 6-2 in conference, probably missing the CG.
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I guess it's about that time, no?
UGA
The first two games are pastries.
Then @ Arkansas, I figure a tougher win than the spread, UGA 30 Arky 20
Oklahoma, they have a good D I hear, but in Athens, UGA 24 OU 10
Vandy, UGA 31 Vandy 13
@Alabama, Bama 24 UGA 20, I need to see it to change.
Auburn, UGA 41 Aubbie 17
Florida (in Atlanta) UGA 37 UF 17
@ Ole Miss OM 27 UGA 24
Mizzou UGA 45 Mizzou 10
@USCe UGA 41 USCe 17
GT UGA 45 Tech 20
So, 10-2, losing the two toughest games, 6-2 in conference, probably missing the CG.
My best guess.
(https://i.imgur.com/HrNgCrK.png)
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Looks about right to me. Have I mentioned how delighted I am that Georgia is off our schedule?
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Georgia is still in the SEC? I haven't seen those guys in, like, 10 years, or something.
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Georgia is still in the SEC? I haven't seen those guys in, like, 10 years, or something.
Yeah, I think they are a kind of adjunct member on probation, or something. Texas had them kicked out.
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Texas is in the SEC???
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ish
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I guess it's about that time, no?
UGA
So, 10-2, losing the two toughest games, 6-2 in conference, probably missing the CG.
7-2 in conference ..... 9 games now
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Florida:
FAU - W
Campbell -W
@Auburn -W
OM -L
@Mizzou -L
USCe -W
@Texas -L
@UGA (Atl) -L
OU -L
@UK -W
Vandy -W
@FSU -W
.
We have a super-fun 3-game stretch in there.
7-5 (4-5)
Losing 5 of 6 would suck. We suck when we play at Mizzou. At Barn isn't guaranteed, nor is Carolina.
We're talented enough to sneak up and bite someone favored over us. But time will tell.
We'll have to see if our losses are more like 17-13 vs 31-10 to tell if the new guy is the right guy.
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8-4 as always. (https://i.imgur.com/yYeTbmZ.png)
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No clue. I don't know how you're supposed to project a team with a new coaching staff and 75% new players, or whatever it is. I can't possibly keep up with that many transfers, so understanding the talent level is insurmountable, and the potential for zero chemistry is real. Or maybe they're all really good and they have chemistry.....who knows.
Trying to peg this team is a fool's errand.
And also, I don't have the desire to keep up with roster transfer at the rate we're seeing it. It'd be exhausting. I'll watch the games, and I'll try to learn their names as the announcers call them. I saw a list of our projected WR corp over the weekend and I didn't recognize a single name on it.
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Yeah I stopped trying to keep up with high school recruiting over a decade ago. Trying to follow the annual roster changes due to unlimited free agency sounds awful to me.
I, too, will just watch the players on the field, once they finally suit up. In many ways it's refreshing to approach the game like a casual fan.
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It's like all of college football is that first UK basketball team with Calipari.....just wholesale changes and hoping for greatness.
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https://twitter.com/satdownsouth/status/2086859704584618368?s=61
LSU getting high ranked.
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Yeah I stopped trying to keep up with high school recruiting over a decade ago. Trying to follow the annual roster changes due to unlimited free agency sounds awful to me.
I, too, will just watch the players on the field, once they finally suit up. In many ways it's refreshing to approach the game like a casual fan.
It's like all of college football is that first UK basketball team with Calipari.....just wholesale changes and hoping for greatness.
The challenge, and my lack of ability and desire to keep up with it, compounds exponentially in that to some extent the same thing affects the other league teams as well. In the previous era, I might reasonably offer an expectation for LSU with +/- margin of 1, maybe 2 W/L's. I did that not only with knowledge of LSU, but also knowledge of the teams on our schedule. I didn't predict us in a vacuum, but rather I had to look at the scheduled competition and have a good idea about their rosters and staffs as well. Maybe nobody portal'd as hard as LSU did this offseason, but the fact that everybody does it means that in addition to not keeping up with our potential, I don't know anyone else's either. It used to be that there were a handful of teams with a realistic shot of beating us, and I would know their returning QBs, or maybe I put less confidence in them because of a new QB, and I could similarly evaluate each position group on down the line. Not to say I could always name Auburn's backup left guard, but I had an okay sense of the major players and quality of position groups and how it might all mesh together to either beat us or come up short.
Now I have nothing but name/brand recognition. I vaguely assume Texas has a lot of money and will be good. Do I know any of their players except Arch Manning? Nope. I vaguely assume Clanga will not be on par with us, but I know of literally nothing to back that up. Everybody else? Who the hell knows? It would be a pure guessing game of random chance on my part, not a prediction with any reason behind it.
Best I can say is that with as much $ as we've thrown at the problem, you'd hope that a winning conference record of 5-4 would be the absolute floor, and that with as many new pieces trying to figure out how they fit together, 7-2 is probably the ceiling. But that's 1) a wide range--obviously hedging--which is barely worthy of anything I would formerly call a good "prediction," and 2) extremely vague, being based on nothing more than feels and vibes about the team, factoring in nothing, and knowing nothing, about any of the competition on the schedule.
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It's like, all the bad parts of pro football, and not much of the good parts.
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https://twitter.com/satdownsouth/status/2086859704584618368?s=61
LSU getting high ranked.
Mizzou at 8? What?
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Four Tennessee games were released, arguably Tennessee’s toughest games of the season.
Texas -6.5 at Tennessee
Alabama (pick ‘em) at Tennessee
Tennessee (+7.5) at Texas A&M
LSU (pick ‘em) at Tennessee
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Man you get Texas, Alabama, and LSU all at home. That's a good home schedule. Are you going to any games this year?
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Man you get Texas, Alabama, and LSU all at home. That's a good home schedule. Are you going to any games this year?
And Auburn.
Probably won't make any, though. I'm still pouting about the NIL, transfer portal, and added costs.
The cheapest Ut vs UT ticket I saw was $550. I just can't justify paying these costs.
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Yeah I get it.
My buddies with 8 season tickets that they use for corporate stuff, invited me to the Texas-Ohio State game. Otherwise I don't think I'd be making any home games this year.
We're using it as sort of a mini-reunion, there are 5 of us who went to junior high, high school, and college together. Most of us roomed together at one point or another. And the two who live out of town are coming in for that weekend, so we're all gonna hang out and relive old times whilst watching Texas get pantsed by Ohio State (which will be pretty much the same as most Longhorn games when we were actually in college...)
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Are you saying Texas is.....
....DOOOOOOOOMMMMEDD ?
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I have really bad season ticket seats in the upper deck behind the north end zone. It's prime real estate for resellers to cater to opposing fans.
I'll definitely make the tOSU game, but will be in Ol' Blighty during October.
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I do think it's likely I'll be at the Texas-TAMU game in College Station after Thanksgiving. My i s c & a aggie wife's Aggie uncle has 4 tickets that he is highly unlikely to be using. His health is such that he doesn't go to many games anymore and he's also not above celebrating his victory and lording it over me and my Longhorn family, in snagging my daughter as an Aggie.
So that's two Longhorn losses I'll get to see in person this season. Yay...
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I do think it's likely I'll be at the Texas-TAMU game in College Station after Thanksgiving. My i s c & a aggie wife's Aggie uncle has 4 tickets that he is highly unlikely to be using. His health is such that he doesn't go to many games anymore and he's also not above celebrating his victory and lording it over me and my Longhorn family, in snagging my daughter as an Aggie.
So that's two Longhorn losses I'll get to see in person this season. Yay...
Sandbagger.
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Nah y'all are due.
So is OU, another game I'll be at this season.
I'm gonna be the kiss o'death to the Long-harns this season.
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Nah y'all are due.
So is OU, another game I'll be at this season.
I'm gonna be the kiss o'death to the Long-harns this season.
Navy is due vs Notre Dame too.
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I'm gonna be the kiss o'death to the Long-harns this season.
The Longhorns have never lost a game I attended, and I got to go to some impressive games. That includes away games as well. Clearly I'm a good luck charm, so I don't see why a group of donors couldn't contribute a reasonable fee and get me tickets to all the games. They'd be national champs every year and I would enjoy a ton of gameday atmospheres for a living.
If only I knew more important people over there who could make this happen.
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If only!
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Man you get Texas, Alabama, and LSU all at home. That's a good home schedule. Are you going to any games this year?
Also a Sept 12 road trip @ Georgia Tech, which I think will be a pretty tough one for UT. Yellow Jackets will be pretty fired up to claim an SEC scalp.
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The Longhorns have never lost a game I attended, and I got to go to some impressive games. That includes away games as well. Clearly I'm a good luck charm, so I don't see why a group of donors couldn't contribute a reasonable fee and get me tickets to all the games. They'd be national champs every year and I would enjoy a ton of gameday atmospheres for a living.
If only I knew more important people over there who could make this happen.
To be honest, I bet back in those days they rarely lost any games at all. What we talking about, 2005ish to 2008ish?
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To be honest, I bet back in those days they rarely lost any games at all. What we talking about, 2005ish to 2008ish?
(https://images.teepublic.com/derived/production/designs/56808147_0/1705877410/i_m:pid_1918,c_s_auto,bc_ffffff,s_630,q_90.jpg)
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2004 -2009 are the seasons I lived there. But I've been to games since.
Obviously they won because I was there. Obviously.
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1998-2009 were all pretty good years to be a Longhorn fan, other than all the losses to the golderned dirt burglars.
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I thought I was an unlucky charm for Florida, having attended a loss @ Miss State, giving up 400+ rushing yards and the Citrus Bowl that year, vs Michigan State. Florida covered Plaxico Burress with either of a pair of 5'9" CBs, so that went well....
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UGA was mediocre when I was in college, well, actually football had yet to be invented ...
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1990 was a good season for the Horns (until it wasn't). But other than that, Texas was pretty bad during my undergrad years.
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LSU and Clemson both have purple in their colors and both call their stadiums Death Valley, but in other ways the week 1 contest will be a sharp contrast of program philosophies. Clemson notoriously shuns the portal; Dabo doesn't like it and Clemson barely uses it, preferring to recruit players more traditionally through the high school ranks and develop them in-house. LSU, otoh, went full-Kiffin in the portal this year, bringing in, I dunno, roughly 573 new players.
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This years Horns will have a decent shot at a National Title. Coach Boom will probably have the best defense of his coaching career. Arch should be a fully funchional seasoned QB this year and barring injury will be a winning force.
But you never really know until we face Ohio St. That game will tell us volumns.
Just a thought last years team had 96 penalties for 803 yards versus opp 66 penalties for 466 yards.
In the Ohio St game we were flagged 6 times for 50 yards while Ohio St only had 2 pen for 15 yards.
A lot of our penalty problem stemed from holding by our less then elite offensive line. This years OL should be much improved and hopefully a reduction in these penalties will be the result.
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Imagine the OSU game is hotly contested, but some late turnover tips the balance either way. Good or bad outcome depending, but possibly not saying that much about either team we don't know now.
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Arch played like hot garbage last year, at OSU. In part, probably because he was hurt, imo. OSU won 14-7.
I can't say what kind of roster turnover each team has had (who can, in this day and age?). But UT's QB stands to make the standard 2nd-year leap forward, probably won't be hurt, and the game will be at home.
OSU is probably too good to not make it a battle, but if Texas wins 28-17, I won't be surprised.
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It's clear that it took Arch until the middle of the UTEP game for the light to come on. He just played like an inexperienced QB before then. Second guessed himself, double-checked his reads, was late, then tried to over-power the pass leading to it getting spiked into the feet in front of the receiver. Add to that the fact that Texas still hadn't located someone to play LG.
Both tOSU and Texas were breaking in new QBs. The Buckeyes never had to do anything risky because Texas wasn't a big threat. The Texas defense was salty, and a freshman mistake could provide the winning points.
This year, both offenses will be looking to show their growth.
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A Texas win say 28-17 sounds very plausible, but does it mean OSU is not "elite"? Maybe not. Does it mean Texas is elite? Maybe. We learn something from every game if we're lucky, but "we" also tend to ..... react overly.
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Remember when LSU @ Clemson to start last year was a Top Ten showdown? lolz
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A Texas win say 28-17 sounds very plausible, but does it mean OSU is not "elite"? Maybe not. Does it mean Texas is elite? Maybe. We learn something from every game if we're lucky, but "we" also tend to ..... react overly.
It wouldn't mean much of anything. It's a single data point unconnected to any other data points when it occurs.
It wouldn't change my opinion of OSU in the least, or Texas either. If the score was reversed, same thing. I'd be inclined to start assigning the Buckeyes some "we backed it up" points for winning on the road.
Now, if either team wins 56-0, that probably moves my needle, even if it is just a single data point. In Bayesian analysis, data carries varying weight, and I'd probably weight that heavier.
A 28-17 affair? Meh. I'd think of them almost exactly how I already thought of them until a few year tough games went by.
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We've all seen 28-17 games where the winner really looked much better, and others where it was really the bounce of the ball a couple times, and maybe a few where the 17 looked better.
I say we all should over react though ....
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I'd think of them almost exactly how I already thought of them until a few year tough games went by.
I should really stop trying to cram posting into times I'm busy with other stuff.
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I've learned to ignore "news from fall camp". Maybe there is some, some key player is dinged up, but in general, it seems ... useless to me. The Dawgs start with two pastries, and little will be gleaned from that as well. Fans will gate on Mike Bobo (OC) as usual for not scoring 70. Oddly enough, his son is the starting center, and apparently quite good.
Anyway, CFB seasons come down to 3-4-5 key games for he better teams, and those outcomes can be ... fluid.
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I'd like to file a complaint against cincydawg for deleting posts about censorship. People should know what he's doing.
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I'd guess "people" do know what he's doing, but it's just a guess.
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When last season started, Texas had an OL that was put together from spare parts (reasons why are, well, complicated and subject to interpretation). We were told, "it'll probably work! They're really showing promise!" and other things in fall camp. Of course, that was after the big news of, "The guy were were counting on to play right tackle just blew out his knee".
Of course, when someone who didn't care if our QB died or not attacked the OL, whomever was at Right Guard took it upon themselves to immediately jump sideways into the Center like that was the plan. Multiple players, same result. Took like 5 games for this to stop happening. Meanwhile, the Heisman QB was still a 1st year starter who fired fastballs into the ground. Can't teach experience in fall camp.
So this year, I'm still eyeballing the OL. I can tell you reasons why it should be better, but until an angry defense tries to break it, it's all just theory. Without it, all of Texas' shiny offensive toys are useless.
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Meanwhile, the Heisman QB was still a 1st year starter who fired fastballs into the ground. Can't teach experience in fall camp.
Did anything ever come out about Arch being injured last year? I had a strong suspicion last year, and a couple of physical therapists I know mentioned their suspicion as well.
I suspected Nussmeier was injured also, and we were belligerently tight lipped about it last year. Until after the season when he admitted that yes, he had dealt with what trainers called an oblique injury all year. I mention that only to say that my suspicion about Nuss was correct, and I'm still suspicious about Arch.
Side note: it was just revealed that Nuss' NFL team has diagnosed him with a cyst on his spine, pressing into his spinal cord, and that was the source of his pain last year, not a mysterious oblique injury. The LSU staff completely missed it, but the Chiefs identified it and are proceeding with treatment (surgery, I assume?). I don't have any more details than that, but that seems like a big, BIG miss by the LSU medical staff. Proper imaging should have revealed that. I felt bad enough for a kid who patiently waited in this day and age, not transferring out when LSU brought in Jayden Daniels for two years, who took his lumps in 2024 but became the only 4,000+ yd passer in LSU history besides Joe Burrow, with 29 TDs, but then dealt with severe abdominal pain in his second year starting, having been projected as a potential first round pick and a Heisman contender starting out. Instead, he passed for only 1900+ yards and 12 TDs, with 5 INTs, and looked like a shell of his former self, and dropped all the way to the 7th round, barely getting drafted. But it sounds like LSU misdiagnosed the issue. If so, that's......not great, Bob.
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I think, by the end of the season, Arch had a nagging foot injury that was corrected via surgery over the summer. Reportedly completely successful and no persistent issues.
Nope. Last season's rough start was just the result of him wanting to be really good and sure about his options. He'd correctly identify the coverage, watch the play unfold, recognize his correct receiver, and then check again to make sure he was right. Then, since he was now a beat behind the timing, he'd really rip the ball to his target.
Problem is, like a fastball pitcher, you either let it go early (resulting in a high and wide throw) or late (resulting in a short hop in front). If you're playing football and you have to choose, you pick the short hop since it isn't an easy INT. However, both passes will be incomplete.
You just can't teach the speed of the college game. You have to experience it. For all of Arch's skills, studying, and prep, it just took a beat to get comfortable with game speed. I like to think it was the 2nd quarter vs UTEP when the offense was just running stop routes for "pitch and catch" style passing when the light went on.
Unfortunately, it would take until Cole Hutson returned from injury for the OL to stop self-sabotaging.
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Predicting is hard, especially about the future.
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(https://i.imgur.com/L8msiTZ.png)
IF this turned out, which coaches would be hot seated or worse? I see Mizzou is ranked preseason.
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7-5 is the upshot. we'll probably go 7-5 (lean that direction) or 6-6. schedule ramps up.
new qb, aa rb is recovering from being shot in the leg in the spring - rb2 is a very good player so we'll be ok while he recovers.
entire new starting d. literally. that said word is it's going to be fine.
austin simmons has a big arm but likes to throw it up for grabs.
oline will probably be ok. our weapons are ok.
we'll be competent but not really beat anybody just like last yr. that is my best guess. it's possible we could beat ou or aTm at home i guess & get to 8-4 but i'm not predicting it. or if we do we'll also drop one at arky or miss st & end up in the same place (7-5).
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(https://i.imgur.com/L8msiTZ.png)
IF this turned out, which coaches would be hot seated or worse? I see Mizzou is ranked preseason.
This is a list of have, and have nots. I think there will be more parity than this.
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I suppose I could see Texas anywhere from 10-2 to 7-5.
Losses will come from this group:
Ohio State
OU
Ole Miss
@Tennessee
@LSU
@Texas A&M
Going through that group with only 2 losses would be a pretty big achievement IMO. I don't think the Horns will lose all of them, but I think they're going to lose a few...
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Regardless of how much Clemson sucks or whether LSU turns out to be really good, I don't think I ever remember a game at any level with a 500-yard differential.
In my extremely uninformed impression of things, I thought Clemson would struggle on offense with a new QB, but I was lead to think they should be fairly salty on D.
Good fodder for some Week 1 Overreactions, I guess.
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dabo’s come uppance is otw. he’s right about many things and i like him largely but has been tone deaf about the portal to the detriment of his employer and fell way behind. & then has been arrogant about it bc they were elite 8 years ago or whatever it is
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Wasn’t Lane the OC at Alabama in those CFP championships? The ones where Clemson kicked their ass? It almost seemed like he had some sort of grudge against Dabo. I also heard he went for two late in the game, up by 40+.
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I predict UGA goes to 2-0 this weekend ...
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Wasn’t Lane the OC at Alabama in those CFP championships? The ones where Clemson kicked their ass? It almost seemed like he had some sort of grudge against Dabo. I also heard he went for two late in the game, up by 40+.
He was Alabama's OC for the first Bama/Clemson match in 2015 that Bama won. They met again the following year in 2016 when Clemson won (but not "kicked their ass") but Kiffin wasn't the coach for the playoffs. He took a HC job and Sarkesian was bumped up to OC for that championship. Kiffin wasn't with the team at all the next two years, the second half of the Bama/Clemson playoff matches. You're probably thinking of 2018 when Clemson drummed them good, but Kiffin was long gone.
LSU did go for two when up big. I didn't mind it. On the list of things one can criticize LSU for, that isn't one of them. If a team is going to act like a scrimmage, it's okay to use the game like one. You want to work on things in a live game, if possible, and you take those rare chances when you get them. LSU wanted to test a 2-pt play, and the failed attempt proved they need to work on it. It wasn't a middle finger, it was clearly taking a chance to work on things. Anybody whining otherwise is just manufactured outrage. Not to say you're whining, but some people are.
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I could care less if LSU went for two up big. I’m pretty sure Elko does the same thing frequently.
However, there have been cases where a team went for two strictly out of spite. I recall Mike Leach going for two strictly, up big against a team. Asked after the game why he went for two, he responded “because we couldn’t go for three” or something similar. Clearly the man had a grudge.
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I'm not aware of any grudge between Kiffin and Dabo. They're pretty much polar opposites in terms of how they embrace the modern era of football, with Dabo still trying to live in the 10-years-ago world, and Kiffin trying to exploit every loophole available. Don't know if that's enough to fuel anything. Like I said, Kiffin was only on one Alabama staff that played Clemson, and Bama won, so I doubt he's holding any grudges from that.
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My i s c & a aggie daughter texted me after their game finished something like, "we beat our scrub worse than you did, they didn't score a single point against us." I responded "52 point difference is more than 50. This will be settled on the field on T+1."
She's been there 2 weeks and she's already running smack against her old man.
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You work hard, you raise 'em best you can for 18 years, you do everything you can for them.....and sometimes they still turn into Aggies.
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Sigh. Sad but true.
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My i s c & a aggie daughter texted me after their game finished something like, "we beat our scrub worse than you did, they didn't score a single point against us." I responded "52 point difference is more than 50. This will be settled on the field on T+1."
She's been there 2 weeks and she's already running smack against her old man.
Also, this Aggie-level math is helping me understand why she wound up in College Station and not in Austin.
I keed, I keed....I'm sure your daughter is brilliant :)
...for an Aggie
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my money is on bama going at least 1-0. i'll update after the next game.
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my money is on bama going at least 1-0. i'll update after the next game.
C'mon, be bold. Just 'cuz Kentucky kicked our ass doesn't mean they can take out Bama.
Now if y'all were playing Vanderbilt* next......
*Vanderbilt also kicked our ass
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C'mon, be bold. Just 'cuz Kentucky kicked our ass doesn't mean they can take out Bama.
Now if y'all were playing Vanderbilt* next......
*Vanderbilt also kicked our ass
i'm cautiously optimistic about this team. i still don't know how far we can go, but we're better than last year, i think. at least we can control the line and soundly beat outmatched teams, which was not true of last years team.
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My i s c & a aggie daughter texted me after their game finished something like, "we beat our scrub worse than you did, they didn't score a single point against us." I responded "52 point difference is more than 50. This will be settled on the field on T+1."
She's been there 2 weeks and she's already running smack against her old man.
tell her that an internet rando from missouri respects the move.