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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on August 30, 2023, 10:57:35 AM

Title: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 30, 2023, 10:57:35 AM
Within another thread @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) posted a link to a College Football Nerds tOSU preview. 

What I want to address here is a discussion they had that relates to all the helmets, not just Ohio State. 

Their assertion was that in the current era with NIL and the portal the major "helmet" teams should really never have a position or position group that is flat awful. 

In the old days (ya know, like four years ago) there was always the possibility that even a helmet would just whiff on recruiting for a given position. Maybe three years worth of Michigan's linebacker recruits just didn't pan out or three years worth of Ohio State's tailback recruits just sucked. In those old days the examples above would have meant that Michigan's linebackers or Ohio State's tailbacks would likely have been flat awful and a MAJOR position of weakness. 

In today's environment their (CFB Nerds) argument was that if the above happened Harbaugh/Day would be able to hit the portal and pick up at least a serviceable LB/TB.

I think that Tyler Buchner to Bama at QB iss a decent example of this. I don't think any of us expect Buchner to be Bama's version of Burrow but I do think that he is a serviceable QB. 

I titled this thread the way I did because I see this as problematic for the non-helmets because it makes it less likely that they'll be able to keep up. There is an ever decreasing chance that Purdue will get to play an Ohio State with crappy TB's or that Minnesota will get to play a Michigan with crappy linebackers. Thus, there are less ways for PU/MN to take out tOSU/M. 

As a fan of a helmet I could just celebrate this and in the short-term, I do. Ohio State had a perceived weakness on Oline going into 2023 and plucked a transfer to help shore that up, Yay go Bucks! 

Taking a longer/larger view, however, I see this as problematic for the health of the sport as a whole. Purdue was always at a disadvantage relative to tOSU/M but in the old days they had at least a chance. They won the league and went to the RoseBowl in the 2000 season. Sure that was 20+ years ago and the Buckeyes (11) and Wolverines (4) have each won multiple league titles since then, but for Purdue there was always a chance, slim as it may have been, that next year would be their year again.

  @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) has recounted his story of traveling to Pasadena for Purdue's appearance in the 2001 Rose Bowl and I think that the (slim) chance that Purdue might make it back eventually helped to keep him around. 

As a fan of a rich team, these rich-get-richer changes are good for me in a way, but I am increasingly convinced that the people running college athletics have their hands wrapped firmly around the neck of the goose and they don't seem to understand that if they kill the goose the golden eggs will stop.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 11:02:21 AM
There is some chance of another "Oregon" or "Oklahoma State" somewhere I suppose, though neither of them quite broke through consistently.

And if they broke through, they just become another member of the Rich.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2023, 11:04:49 AM
yup, I don't like all the changes to college football, but.........

this probably gives Nebraska a better chance to shine up the old helmet
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 12:59:35 PM
There is no excuse now for a helmet school to ever be at a roster disadvantage.  I think the only way it happens now is if they are at a coaching disadvantage.  Oklahoma might have that right now.  Jury is out on Texas.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2023, 01:02:50 PM
Taking a longer/larger view, however, I see this as problematic for the health of the sport as a whole. Purdue was always at a disadvantage relative to tOSU/M but in the old days they had at least a chance. They won the league and went to the RoseBowl in the 2000 season. Sure that was 20+ years ago and the Buckeyes (11) and Wolverines (4) have each won multiple league titles since then, but for Purdue there was always a chance, slim as it may have been, that next year would be their year again.

  @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) has recounted his story of traveling to Pasadena for Purdue's appearance in the 2001 Rose Bowl and I think that the (slim) chance that Purdue might make it back eventually helped to keep him around.

As a fan of a rich team, these rich-get-richer changes are good for me in a way, but I am increasingly convinced that the people running college athletics have their hands wrapped firmly around the neck of the goose and they don't seem to understand that if they kill the goose the golden eggs will stop.

Exactly. 2022 was an outlier in that Purdue won a terrible B1G West and then got skewered when playing in the CCG, as expected. So basically Purdue is already eliminated from winning the conference because they're going to face a juggernaut in the CCG. The chances that the best team out of UM/OSU/PSU is bad enough to be vulnerable to Purdue are minimal. 

2000 was a generational talent and likely the best QB in school history for a school like Purdue, and an innovative coach who was ahead of the curve for Big Ten style of play. And even then it took winning a 3-way tiebreaker with two conference losses to get to Pasadena. 

Before that it was 1966. And at the time you could argue he was another generational talent for a school like Purdue at QB. 

But in the 18-team league, the CCG world, the NIL world, the transfer portal world? I don't believe Purdue can, much less will, ever have a chance at winning the conference again. 

The only way it could happen is if the idea @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) mentioned in another thread--embrace NIL in a 24+24 team (48 total) superconference that breaks away from the NCAA. THEN, reduce roster limits and enforce a salary cap so that there is actually enforced parity across the system. But I don't believe that will ever happen, because the helmets aren't going to want parity, even if it is good for the health of the sport. 

Which is one of the reasons I'm out. The other, of course, is a history of heartbreaking Purdue underperformance on banana peels in March. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 01:03:00 PM
Is Miami a Helmet School?  UCLA?  Nebraska?  Auburn?  Florida?  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 01:03:18 PM
Is Miami a Helmet School?  UCLA?  Nebraska?  Auburn?  Florida? 
Well, now you've done it
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2023, 01:13:04 PM
Is Miami a Helmet School?  UCLA?  Nebraska?  Auburn?  Florida? 
We don't need to debate who is or isn't a helmet. 

The truth is there's a pecking order in college football. Maybe OSU and Alabama are Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk in this scenario. But schools like Nebraska/Auburn/Florida are still multi-millionaires. 

Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, etc, by virtue of simply being in the B1G, are upper middle class, and that's about it. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 01:21:27 PM
I'd argue those teams currently are at a significant talent/roster disadvantage.  Maybe they recover, some of them almost surely will.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 30, 2023, 01:30:08 PM
Yeah the portal has created free agency similar to the NFL, but without the multi-year contracts and salary caps that serve to balance and restrict the rate of flow of the talent.  It would take major structural and procedural changes, to make a difference in the current expected outcomes.

It'll be interesting to see in a few years, how the Portal Bust Rate, compares to the Recruiting Bust Rate.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 02:14:37 PM
Yeah the portal has created free agency similar to the NFL, but without the multi-year contracts and salary caps that serve to balance and restrict the rate of flow of the talent.  It would take major structural and procedural changes, to make a difference in the current expected outcomes.

It'll be interesting to see in a few years, how the Portal Bust Rate, compares to the Recruiting Bust Rate.

I feel like the portal was meant to appease players to try and get them to back down on the payment thing.

You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, but if you could keep NIL, and get rid of the portal (keep grad transfers) I think that would be ideal.  You want to use your funds on a 17 year old, god bless.  You want to use it as a reward for existing players to either show future recruits how you take care of your own, or to keep borderline guys from jumping to the NFL, I'm totally fine with that
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 30, 2023, 02:36:30 PM
There is no excuse now for a helmet school to ever be at a roster disadvantage.  I think the only way it happens now is if they are at a coaching disadvantage.  Oklahoma might have that right now.  Jury is out on Texas.
I agree with one exception, injuries.  Ohio State's running back situation late last year is a prime example.  On paper Ohio State's roster was loaded with RB talent but by the time the Buckeyes played Michigan and Georgia (not coincidentally the two games they lost), the projected top three (Henderson, Williams, Pryor) were ALL out due to injuries so at that point in the season Ohio State had a talent deficit at the RB position relative to a lot of non-helmet schools that you would never expect to be able to out-talent tOSU.  

That said, Ohio State's situation at WR was probably a more typical example of what happens here.  JSN was phenomenal late in 2021 and, IIRC, was the odds on favorite to win the Biletnikoff in 2022 but he ended up being a non-factor due to injury.  For a non-helmet, losing a guy like that would be devastating.  If Purdue had a guy like that and lost him to injury their projection would probably drop from competing for the B1G-W to missing a bowl.  In Ohio State's case they turned to Marvin Harrison who was one of the best WR's in the country, arguably the best.  It DID still hurt the Buckeyes because a WR corps of:
Would be much better than a WR corps of:
So it clearly DID hurt Ohio State but only in the sense that they went from having an outright ridiculous talent advantage over basically everybody if JSN had been healthy to being merely a whole lot better than almost everybody at that position.  

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 30, 2023, 02:49:57 PM
It'll be interesting to see in a few years, how the Portal Bust Rate, compares to the Recruiting Bust Rate.
The portal bust rate will almost certainly be lower because when you are looking at a portal transfer you've actually seen him compete against other CFB players in a CFB system. 

Some HS studs just never learn to adjust to playing against equals and that alone explains a significant portion of the recruiting busts.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 30, 2023, 03:36:41 PM
The portal bust rate will almost certainly be lower because when you are looking at a portal transfer you've actually seen him compete against other CFB players in a CFB system.


Could be?

But a huge chunk of players in the portal, are there because they're not getting enough PT.  Or, they're just not very good.  So I'm not so sure it's really some vast pool of "knowns."  I'd still expect the Portal Bust Rate to be lower, but I don't know that it's going to be significantly lower.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 30, 2023, 03:42:41 PM
Exactly. 2022 was an outlier in that Purdue won a terrible B1G West and then got skewered when playing in the CCG, as expected. So basically Purdue is already eliminated from winning the conference because they're going to face a juggernaut in the CCG. The chances that the best team out of UM/OSU/PSU is bad enough to be vulnerable to Purdue are minimal.

2000 was a generational talent and likely the best QB in school history for a school like Purdue, and an innovative coach who was ahead of the curve for Big Ten style of play. And even then it took winning a 3-way tiebreaker with two conference losses to get to Pasadena.

Before that it was 1966. And at the time you could argue he was another generational talent for a school like Purdue at QB.

But in the 18-team league, the CCG world, the NIL world, the transfer portal world? I don't believe Purdue can, much less will, ever have a chance at winning the conference again.

The only way it could happen is if the idea @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) mentioned in another thread--embrace NIL in a 24+24 team (48 total) superconference that breaks away from the NCAA. THEN, reduce roster limits and enforce a salary cap so that there is actually enforced parity across the system. But I don't believe that will ever happen, because the helmets aren't going to want parity, even if it is good for the health of the sport.

Which is one of the reasons I'm out. The other, of course, is a history of heartbreaking Purdue underperformance on banana peels in March.
I know this is picking nits but Purdue's last title prior to 2000 was 1967 not 1966.  

It always took a certain amount of luck for the Boilermakers, their titles:
So they needed a lot of luck and a favorable situation but it could and sometimes actually did happen.  

Even beyond the conference, prior to NIL, the portal, the CFP, and the BCS I would argue that there was even a sliver of a chance for a Purdue to win the NC.  Sure, it wasn't likely but sometimes the Pac rep to the RoseBowl wasn't all that good.  Maybe Purdue would have a lucky season where they had a good/great team and they missed one of tOSU/M and either upset the other one or maybe the other one was in a slump and if they went undefeated to the Rose Bowl, they were one game away, it *COULD* happen.  Now, not a prayer.  Even if they missed one of tOSU/M knocked off the other one, the CG awaits, good luck with that.  Even if they somehow managed to upset their CG opponent that only gets them into a semi-final (soon to be more likely a quarter-final).  Even if they somehow managed to knock off their semi-final opponent, ask TCU how the CG worked out for them.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 03:44:21 PM
Here is one example, which isn't meant to generalize:

Nebraska TE Arik Gilbert arrested for felony burglary after allegedly robbing liquor and vape store (yahoo.com) (https://sports.yahoo.com/nebraska-te-arik-gilbert-arrested-for-felony-burglary-after-allegedly-robbing-liquor-and-vape-store-004553208.html)

Started at LSU, moved to UGA, then Nebraska.  He flashed some talent in the UGA spring game and then barely played.  Granted he was behind a couple dudes, but he would have known that ahead of time.  A ton of talent, we're told, that wasn't the problem.

Then we have a couple high profile QBs who transferred and could well have great years at ND and UF.  I can see it for QBs more easily than other positions.

Why did Bear Alexander transfer to USC?  Dunno.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2023, 04:14:13 PM
Even beyond the conference, prior to NIL, the portal, the CFP, and the BCS I would argue that there was even a sliver of a chance for a Purdue to win the NC.
Correct on 1967 being the tied conference title. I forgot that Purdue went to the 1966 Rose Bowl after finishing second due to the "no repeat rule" so MSU couldn't go.

BTW I always considered the NC above Purdue's ceiling. Just finding some way to backdoor a conference championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl, maybe even a win(!) there, is about all that any Purdue fan thought would/could happen. 

Realistically Purdue, to get enough votes in the old system, would have to go undefeated. 

Counting the bowl game, Purdue hasn't had a season with 3 or fewer losses since they went 9-3 (with a bowl win) in 1997. Most recent 2-loss season (with a bowl win) was 1979. Most recent 2-loss regular season was 1969. Most recent one-loss season was 1958, but that season also had two ties to finish 6-1-2. Prior to that they had no more one-loss [or better] seasons until 1943, which incidentally is also their most recent undefeated season. But, ya know, there might be a little asterisk what with a World War on and all...

So at best would be an appearance in the Rose Bowl. Which Purdue is likely to never again do in my lifetime, other than playing a conference away game at UCLA, of course.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 04:48:24 PM
Correct on 1967 being the tied conference title. I forgot that Purdue went to the 1966 Rose Bowl after finishing second due to the "no repeat rule" so MSU couldn't go.

BTW I always considered the NC above Purdue's ceiling. Just finding some way to backdoor a conference championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl, maybe even a win(!) there, is about all that any Purdue fan thought would/could happen.

Realistically Purdue, to get enough votes in the old system, would have to go undefeated.

Counting the bowl game, Purdue hasn't had a season with 3 or fewer losses since they went 9-3 (with a bowl win) in 1997. Most recent 2-loss season (with a bowl win) was 1979. Most recent 2-loss regular season was 1969. Most recent one-loss season was 1958, but that season also had two ties to finish 6-1-2. Prior to that they had no more one-loss [or better] seasons until 1943, which incidentally is also their most recent undefeated season. But, ya know, there might be a little asterisk what with a World War on and all...

So at best would be an appearance in the Rose Bowl. Which Purdue is likely to never again do in my lifetime, other than playing a conference away game at UCLA, of course.
But the fun thing is that used to matter.  I went nuts when MSU came back to beat PSU in 2006 to get their first bowl bid 3 years.  Playing Georgia in a January 1 Citrus Bowl, even in a loss, against Stafford and Moreno, I thought might be peak.  Then to actually win a Big Ten title, and a couple years later go to the Rose Bowl.  Holy shit.

It was hard for MSU to get there, but not impossible.  And each of those things seemed important.  Hell, MSU won the conference, made the playoff, got blasted, and people make fun of them for it.  Literally 7 years after I was on cloud nine for losing to Georgia in a January 1 bowl.

College football has always been heavily weighted towards the better teams.  But previously.  You lost at Missouri or Purdue or South Carolina, on a random October afternoon, no title for you.  Now there are so many chances.  You lose a regular season game, you still might get to the CCG, or backdoor into the CFP.  You give the best teams enough chances, they'll win.  And when you make the "consolation prizes" so insignificant that it doesn't matter, that's how you lose interest.  MSU's two best seasons since the CFP, they went 10-2.  One year they played Washington State in the Holiday Bowl because they had been to Florida too many times recently, and all the non-CFP bowls are equally meh.  And the other time they played Pitt on December 30 in the Peach Bowl, where the best player from both teams sat out.

We know who the best teams are.  We always have.  But we've eliminated the randomness where Northwestern can go to a Rose Bowl because Michigan upsets Ohio State, and Northwestern doesn't have to play them.  And we've eliminated caring about even going to a January 1 bowl, or the Rose Bowl.

I love fall.  I love fall cooking.  I like Oktoberfest and pumpkin (sorry) beers.  I associate those things with college football, and thus it's all still somewhat intertwined.  But I certainly no longer love college football.  I'm not even sure I like it.  It has fallen behind the NFL and the MLB playoffs in my watching hierarchy
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 05:07:00 PM
Fall is great.  I used to temper that with the knowledge that winter would follow, but here winter is not bad anyway, usually.  We still go outside nearly daily.  Fall also has baseball of course, which I enjoy more and more.  Fall colors, crisp fall mornings, quick trip to the mountains perhaps, blue skies oh my, grits and eggs, the smell of a fire, and college football.

I was musing earlier about football in say 1920.  Did students just show up to try out?  Were there scholarships?  Did coaches walk around campus looking for big dudes, maybe somebody who weight 190 pounds to play center?  UGA had a long period of ireleevance preDooley, then they showed some life in the 60s, some NYD bowl games, a strange 16-2 loss to Arkansas in 1968 I think with an 8-0-2 team.  Folks said they'd been on Bourbon Street the night before.

Then they hit 1980-1983 and did well of course, I thought at the time they'd continue to do that well, but they didn't.  Winning the Gator Bowl was a fine thing.  I've mentioned before that maybe it would be better to be a "K State" fan and just enjoy the environment and the occasional win.  Ole Miss fans seems to think that way.

But life to an extent is what you decide to make of it.  There is no logical reason for much of what we do.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 30, 2023, 05:17:23 PM
But in the 18-team league, the CCG world, the NIL world, the transfer portal world? I don't believe Purdue can, much less will, ever have a chance at winning the conference again.

Which is one of the reasons I'm out. 
It may not seem like it because I'm obviously a fan/alum of a helmet but I do understand and sympathies with this position.  My analogy is my relationship with the MLB.  

Most Cleveland sports have sucked for most of my lifetime.  There have only been a few exceptions.  The Browns were really good in the late 1980's and only BARELY missed the SuperBowl a few times.  The Cavaliers were really good when they had LeBron, and the Indians have been periodically good.  

Browns:
It IS possible for a small-market team to excel in the NFL and we in Cleveland need only to look to the SE to see it.  Our hated rivals from Pittsburgh are from a smaller metro than ours and yet they've been one of the best NFL franchises for decades.  The Browns' problem isn't structural, it is just that they've been abysmal at management for basically ever.  

Cavaliers:
The Cavs ONLY won a title because LeBron decided he wanted to win one for the home team.  Full stop.  In the case of the NBA this isn't really the league's fault and I don't know that they even could fix it.  High-end BB players get most of their money from endorsement deals and those are naturally more lucrative if you:
Thus, the great players tend to congregate on good teams in large media markets.  They are literally better off playing for half the money on a great team in LA than playing for twice the salary on a crappy team in Cleveland so it is structurally impossible for the Cavaliers to compete unless they get some weird advantage like having the greatest player in a generation happen to be born nearby and want to play at home.  

Indians/Guardians:
MLB has deliberately chosen NOT to have an effective salary cap.  Consequently there are basically two tiers:

Tier 1, major media market teams:
These big-money teams can buy the players they need to attempt to compete EVERY year.  

Tier 2, small market teams:
These teams have to build a team the hard way and there is a roughly 10-12 year cycle.  They can only be competitive for roughly 3-4 years of each 10-12 year cycle and if everything breaks just right and their prospects all pan out and none of the big-money teams are having a particularly great year, the *MIGHT* be able to win a title in one of those 3-4 years.  

The Indians (not Guardians) were actually REALLY well managed for most of the last 20-30 years and they've been oh-so-close a couple times when they were in their competitive years but come up just short.  

Years ago I realized this and concluded that if the MLB wasn't going to give my team a fair chance for 8-9 out of 12 years then I wasn't going to spend any time or money on them except in the 3-4 years when they actually have a prayer.  

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2023, 05:48:36 PM
I like Oktoberfest and pumpkin (sorry) beers.
Damn. If you were local, I've got a bunch of pumpkin beers in my fridge from a mixed 24-pack that I'd give you lol...

It may not seem like it because I'm obviously a fan/alum of a helmet but I do understand and sympathies with this position.  My analogy is my relationship with the MLB. 

Most Cleveland sports have sucked for most of my lifetime.  There have only been a few exceptions.  The Browns were really good in the late 1980's and only BARELY missed the SuperBowl a few times.  The Cavaliers were really good when they had LeBron, and the Indians have been periodically good. 
NFL has a draft, a hard salary cap, and being a complete "team" game doesn't allow for one or two star players making a bad team into a contender. So there's parity. And yeah, your Browns suck because of decades of bad management.

NBA has the draft and salary cap, but the salary cap isn't as restrictive. And because basically two or three star players can completely change the complexion of the team, players engage in "recruitment" of their peers to try to win titles. Cleveland got lucky in that the top player in the league was from Ohio and decided to recruit a team to do it. There's an attempt at parity, but it doesn't work.

MLB allows a rich franchise to basically buy a team. There's basically a handwaving about parity with the luxury tax, but it is ineffective. So Cleveland is screwed as you point out by being a small-market team. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on August 30, 2023, 05:56:42 PM
Seems like the transfer portal also makes it tougher to fill out depth for the helmet teams. Having three rows of studs doesn't make a ton of sense for them if they can leave as soon as they know they aren't starting. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 06:01:59 PM
Cavaliers:
The Cavs ONLY won a title because LeBron decided he wanted to win one for the home team.  Full stop.  In the case of the NBA this isn't really the league's fault and I don't know that they even could fix it.  High-end BB players get most of their money from endorsement deals and those are naturally more lucrative if you:
  • Play in a large media market, and
  • Play on a winning team. 
Thus, the great players tend to congregate on good teams in large media markets.  They are literally better off playing for half the money on a great team in LA than playing for twice the salary on a crappy team in Cleveland so it is structurally impossible for the Cavaliers to compete unless they get some weird advantage like having the greatest player in a generation happen to be born nearby and want to play at home. 
Sure they could.  They could eliminate the max and supermax contracts.  The NBA not only has a team cap, but a player cap.  Imagine if Mahomes was capped on top of the salary cap.  The Chiefs would be unstoppable.  Brady voluntarily took less than he could to win titles, but if there were contract limits like the NBA, all top QBs would be in that boat
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 06:07:10 PM
Fall is great.  I used to temper that with the knowledge that winter would follow, but here winter is not bad anyway, usually.  We still go outside nearly daily.  Fall also has baseball of course, which I enjoy more and more.  Fall colors, crisp fall mornings, quick trip to the mountains perhaps, blue skies oh my, grits and eggs, the smell of a fire, and college football.
Winter in the hybrid work environment is a whole different animal.  Under 40 = work from home

And it's the 3 months I'm not coaching travel baseball
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2023, 06:08:21 PM
Seems like the transfer portal also makes it tougher to fill out depth for the helmet teams. Having three rows of studs doesn't make a ton of sense for them if they can leave as soon as they know they aren't starting.
You'd think, but football is a violent game. For some 5* and 4* players, sitting your freshman and sophomore year behind upperclassmen, balling out for 1 year and only getting beaten to a pulp for one year, and then getting drafted, makes a lot of sense. 

Especially if you're a position with a short NFL shelf life like running back. The fewer years of abuse you can take in college where you're barely getting paid, the more years of abuse you can take in the NFL where you're setting yourself up for a comfortable retirement. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 06:10:53 PM
You'd think, but football is a violent game. For some 5* and 4* players, sitting your freshman and sophomore year behind upperclassmen, balling out for 1 year and only getting beaten to a pulp for one year, and then getting drafted, makes a lot of sense.

Especially if you're a position with a short NFL shelf life like running back. The fewer years of abuse you can take in college where you're barely getting paid, the more years of abuse you can take in the NFL where you're setting yourself up for a comfortable retirement.
Yeah, I almost think that also hurts the next level more.  If Ohio State wanted you, and you sat for 3 years and showed out, the NFL is drooling.  you are still an elite talent, but with less wear and tear.  If it takes you 3 years to get on the field at MSU or Purdue, you are garbage.  Those kids would rather show out than being a depth kid at a mid level P5 team.  Being a backup at OSU just means you are an elite talent farther away from the CTE kicking in
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on August 30, 2023, 06:48:14 PM
You'd think, but football is a violent game. For some 5* and 4* players, sitting your freshman and sophomore year behind upperclassmen, balling out for 1 year and only getting beaten to a pulp for one year, and then getting drafted, makes a lot of sense.

Especially if you're a position with a short NFL shelf life like running back. The fewer years of abuse you can take in college where you're barely getting paid, the more years of abuse you can take in the NFL where you're setting yourself up for a comfortable retirement.
If that were so, you'd think transfers would be a lot more willing to sit out a year before suiting up.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2023, 07:21:43 PM

MLB allows a rich franchise to basically buy a team. There's basically a handwaving about parity with the luxury tax, but it is ineffective. So Cleveland is screwed as you point out by being a small-market team.

MLB has a built-in effective "fairness" aspect:  the short postseason series.
You can't buy a championship, just a playoff spot (unless you're the BIGGEST DIPSHIT LOSER BUST OF A TEAM EVER - METS).  Once you're in the postseason, each series is basically a coin flip.  

That's why MLB has like 15 different World Series winner franchises the last 25 years.  It's probably technically the most parity.




Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2023, 07:24:07 PM
Yeah, I almost think that also hurts the next level more.  If Ohio State wanted you, and you sat for 3 years and showed out, the NFL is drooling.  you are still an elite talent, but with less wear and tear.  If it takes you 3 years to get on the field at MSU or Purdue, you are garbage.  Those kids would rather show out than being a depth kid at a mid level P5 team.  Being a backup at OSU just means you are an elite talent farther away from the CTE kicking in
Ehhh....the games aren't the wear and tear.  4-5 days of practice takes more out of you than the game.  The game is fun.  A RB carries the ball dozens of times during the week, mostly vs air or pads, but many more times live than they do in any one game.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2023, 07:26:02 PM
They don't practice like we did in high school
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2023, 07:30:14 PM
I reckon not.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: bayareabadger on August 31, 2023, 12:12:06 AM
We know who the best teams are.  We always have.  But we've eliminated the randomness where Northwestern can go to a Rose Bowl because Michigan upsets Ohio State, and Northwestern doesn't have to play them.  And we've eliminated caring about even going to a January 1 bowl, or the Rose Bowl.

I love fall.  I love fall cooking.  I like Oktoberfest and pumpkin (sorry) beers.  I associate those things with college football, and thus it's all still somewhat intertwined.  But I certainly no longer love college football.  I'm not even sure I like it.  It has fallen behind the NFL and the MLB playoffs in my watching hierarchy
It's interesting, the time I was at UW or planning to attend had a blend of A. A team that made a run to being undefeated in Nov. with no business doing so, B. A couple hype cycles that fell drastically short, and C. Seasons that made it clear bowl placement was kinda secondary (teams of differing qualities kept going to the same bowls for standings reasons). And it totally short circuited my interest in begging for an undefeated rise in the polls or staring at bowl stuff. 

I ended up drawing more inward. I focus on games and season records, as well as stats and schemes I find interesting. I was at a time hooked to the poll horse race thing, but after watching mid-teams get to 5-0 and fanbases whine, I stopped caring. Win the games, assemble the record, the rest takes care of itself (or doesn't, but it only doesn't at the end). Games are good. Watching teams put together good seasons is good. The rest became window dressing, with smaller stories or fanbase neuroses being more interesting than poll position or postseason placement, at least to me. 

I suppose I count myself a little lucky that different kinds of disappointment as a student didn't lead me away from that joy. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 31, 2023, 09:15:51 AM
NFL has a draft, a hard salary cap, and being a complete "team" game doesn't allow for one or two star players making a bad team into a contender. So there's parity. And yeah, your Browns suck because of decades of bad management.
This is incredibly frustrating. 

Consider this:
As we all know, NFL draft picks go first to the worst teams in an effort to maintain some sort of balance by giving the worst teams a jump on the best young players. When the Browns returned in 1999 they got the first pick and selected Tim Couch. In the 20-odd years since then they have only finished ahead of the hated Steelers a few times (I think three but don't care enough to go look it up). The point is that the Browns have picked ahead of the Steelers almost every year and usually WAY ahead. Despite that, if you look at Cleveland's first round picks it is a whose who of NFL busts while Pittsburgh's almost universally had successful NFL careers. 

I'm honestly not exaggerating (at least by much) when I say that the Browns might literally have been better off to make their selections by throwing darts at a wall with prospect's names rather than whatever method they actually used because you have to figure that random chance would at least occasionally work out.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 09:18:39 AM
This is incredibly frustrating.

Consider this:
As we all know, NFL draft picks go first to the worst teams in an effort to maintain some sort of balance by giving the worst teams a jump on the best young players. When the Browns returned in 1999 they got the first pick and selected Tim Couch. In the 20-odd years since then they have only finished ahead of the hated Steelers a few times (I think three but don't care enough to go look it up). The point is that the Browns have picked ahead of the Steelers almost every year and usually WAY ahead. Despite that, if you look at Cleveland's first round picks it is a whose who of NFL busts while Pittsburgh's almost universally had successful NFL careers.

I'm honestly not exaggerating (at least by much) when I say that the Browns might literally have been better off to make their selections by throwing darts at a wall with prospect's names rather than whatever method they actually used because you have to figure that random chance would at least occasionally work out.
truly is an art not a science. 

Tim Couch went #1 overall. Tom Brady went in the 6th round. Crazy.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2023, 09:20:45 AM
truly is an art not a science.

Tim Couch went #1 overall. Tom Brady went in the 6th round. Crazy.
Yup.

And sometimes it's neither an art nor a science, but rather a crapshoot.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2023, 09:22:06 AM
It's not totally random of course.  There is some correlaation between high draft pick and NFL success, but the exceptions stand out.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on August 31, 2023, 09:40:13 AM
College football has always been heavily weighted towards the better teams.  But previously.  You lost at Missouri or Purdue or South Carolina, on a random October afternoon, no title for you.  Now there are so many chances.  You lose a regular season game, you still might get to the CCG, or backdoor into the CFP.  You give the best teams enough chances, they'll win.  And when you make the "consolation prizes" so insignificant that it doesn't matter, that's how you lose interest.  MSU's two best seasons since the CFP, they went 10-2.  One year they played Washington State in the Holiday Bowl because they had been to Florida too many times recently, and all the non-CFP bowls are equally meh.  And the other time they played Pitt on December 30 in the Peach Bowl, where the best player from both teams sat out.

We know who the best teams are.  We always have.  But we've eliminated the randomness where Northwestern can go to a Rose Bowl because Michigan upsets Ohio State, and Northwestern doesn't have to play them.  And we've eliminated caring about even going to a January 1 bowl, or the Rose Bowl.

I love fall.  I love fall cooking.  I like Oktoberfest and pumpkin (sorry) beers.  I associate those things with college football, and thus it's all still somewhat intertwined.  But I certainly no longer love college football.  I'm not even sure I like it.  It has fallen behind the NFL and the MLB playoffs in my watching hierarchy
Sadly Post of The Year!

CFB Saturdays are/were a respite from the daily grind that I found almost exhilerating. Even game discussions afterward could be stimulating. CFB seemed to embrace balance,fairplay sportsmanship - they got it right.The suits at the schools,networks and conferences however couldn't leave well enough alone - if it ain't broke don't fix it.

 IMHO things went sideways when mind numbing amounts of cash were handed to coaches - staggering hauls that no one deserves. Athletic Directors,Game Announcers,Network Wonks all dove into the pile, pretty much putting a torch to everything ELA above mentioned & embraced
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2023, 10:19:27 AM
I think pining for the past can be limiting, we can still enjoy the present, I think, or I do anyway (the last two seasons were pretty fun).

In this world, money drives actions (with some exceptions).  It's inevitable, no reason to blame someone for being greedy.  Like most here, given a choice I'd go back to the Olden times (maybe the 1920s...).  I enjoyed the irrationality of bowls and rankings and MNCs.  Most humans want structure and certainty, a la NFL.  And there is the money.

Very clearly, CFB is being NFLized, and that will continue.  I'd guess most 30 year old fans think it's for the best.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 10:20:07 AM
Yup.

And sometimes it's neither an art nor a science, but rather a crapshoot.
crapshoot is probably a better word for it.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 10:21:57 AM
I think pining for the past can be limiting, we can still enjoy the present, I think, or I do anyway (the last two seasons were pretty fun).

In this world, money drives actions (with some exceptions).  It's inevitable, no reason to blame someone for being greedy.  Like most here, given a choice I'd go back to the Olden times (maybe the 1920s...).  I enjoyed the irrationality of bowls and rankings and MNCs.  Most humans want structure and certainty, a la NFL.  And there is the money.

Very clearly, CFB is being NFLized, and that will continue.  I'd guess most 30 year old fans think it's for the best.
I'm with you. I like all the changes because it benefits the player. At the end of the day that's all any fan should care about. The players.

Not about to be one of those "get off my lawn" or "back in my day" dudes. Different eras have different set of circumstances, different rules. Things change, grow, evolve. That's life.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2023, 10:28:42 AM
I don't know that these changes benefit most players.  You have this 85 man roster, often larger at home, and many never play a down.  Some get to play a few downs in a game, get sparing recognition, no NIL, take their lumps, some at least have scholarships but that hasn't changed.  They could portal, but then what?  To get PT they'd have to go to Ball State.

Some players obviously benefit financially, and can leap ship.  But some end up largely forgotten perhaps with lingering physical injuries.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2023, 10:31:13 AM
I'm with you. I like all the changes because it benefits the player. At the end of the day that's all any fan should care about. The players.

I hear what you're saying, but is the game for the players, or is it for the fans?

If it's for the players, then they should all be fine with playing in front of nobody but their parents, in some back sandlots near the exit of the girls' gym.  Right?  And they should be fine with zero compensation of any kind, since the game is just for the players.  Right?

Except that's not how it works.  That's not how ANY of this works.

Without the fans there's no money to distribute to the coaches and players, there's no talk of NIL or "NFLization" of the sport.  There's no problems at all.  Line up your 11 best against the 11 best from some school a couple miles away, let the parents watch, and call it a day.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2023, 10:33:54 AM
If I was for the players, I would not watch football at all.  It's dangerous, some of them end up harmed for life, and many of them end up with those lingering issues.

I'd be for a ban.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 10:37:12 AM
I don't know that these changes benefit most players.  You have this 85 man roster, often larger at home, and many never play a down.  Some get to play a few downs in a game, get sparing recognition, no NIL, take their lumps, some at least have scholarships but that hasn't changed.  They could portal, but then what?  To get PT they'd have to go to Ball State.

Some players obviously benefit financially, and can leap ship.  But some end up largely forgotten perhaps with lingering physical injuries.
the changes benefits all the players, period. there were guys on 85 man rosters that never played a down way before NIL or the portal. 99% always wound up largely forgotten with lingering physical injuries way before NIL or the portal. very few ever become star players in college, and even fewer actually make it to the NFL.

NIL allows these kids to actually make money off their god given abilities and hard work, which is long over due when you have head coaches making north of $10 million a year and schools pulling in hundreds of millions a year off football and conferences pulling in billions. The portal allows kids to not have to be locked into a school that they don't want to be at anymore without having to lose a year of eligibility, when coaches that recruited them can and do leave at will for bigger paychecks at other schools or in the NFL all the time.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2023, 10:39:22 AM
the changes benefits all the players, period. there were guys on 85 man rosters that never played a down way before NIL or the portal. 99% always wound up largely forgotten with lingering physical injuries way before NIL or the portal. very few ever become star players in college, and even fewer actually make it to the NFL.

NIL allows these kids to actually make money off their god given abilities and hard work, which is long over due when you have head coaches making north of $10 million a year and schools pulling in hundreds of millions a year and conferences billions. The portal allows kids to not have to be locked into a school that they don't want to be at anymore without having to lose a year of eligibility, when coaches that recruited them can and do leave at will for bigger paychecks at other schools or in the NFL all the time.

Yeah I think almost all of the major recent changes have benefitted the players.  The poor conditions cited by CD that exist today, also existed before NIL or the portal, but now players have at least some chance to address the problems and change their fate.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 31, 2023, 10:40:26 AM
I'm gonna watch my school and have fun doing it. Better to win than lose, of course.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 10:43:19 AM
I hear what you're saying, but is the game for the players, or is it for the fans?

If it's for the players, then they should all be fine with playing in front of nobody but their parents, in some back sandlots near the exit of the girls' gym.  Right?  And they should be fine with zero compensation of any kind, since the game is just for the players.  Right?

Except that's not how it works.  That's not how ANY of this works.

Without the fans there's no money to distribute to the coaches and players, there's no talk of NIL or "NFLization" of the sport.  There's no problems at all.  Line up your 11 best against the 11 best from some school a couple miles away, let the parents watch, and call it a day.
it's still for the players imo. they are the ones risking life and limb and potential brain injury week in week out. without them you have nothing for the fans to watch. fans just sit on their asses at home and watch tv or go to a tailgate and games here and there.

people watch college football to see the very best players play and compete at the highest level vs the best of the best. if a real minor league was ever started by the NFL and they paid all the top HS prospects and P5 was only getting try hards and kids that belong at Stanford or Yale the tv viewership would crater and the fans would disappear overnight.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2023, 10:44:36 AM
I'm gonna watch my school and have fun doing it. Better to win than lose, of course.
This is where I've landed, and gets back to some themes on this thread that others have mentioned.

It's supposed to be a game, and it's supposed to be fun to watch.  And I mean, watching each game itself, is supposed to be the fun part.  Watching the action that happens for 60 minutes, inside the white lines, on the gridiron, between two teams set to oppose one another.

All this stuff about worrying about the CFP and worrying about the polls and worrying about recruiting and worrying about NIL and worrying about the portal-- it's all unnecessary and for the most part it's negative bulljive.  It's a result of the nationalization of the sport and the 24/7 sports news cycle.  It's an invention of the mediots.  But we don't have to play their game.  We can choose our own way.

Anyway, Hook 'em Horns and ou sucks!

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on August 31, 2023, 10:44:44 AM
I'm pro-entertainment. The not paying players was just legalized theft, and I'm glad it has gone away. It's not entertaining to know someone is getting bilked out of their money. I'm less convinced on the transfers - part of college sports is seeing your guys develop and grow. College basketball is almost like everyone picks teams at the start of the year, which isn't particularly entertaining.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 10:49:17 AM
I'm pro-entertainment. The not paying players was just legalized theft, and I'm glad it has gone away. It's not entertaining to know someone is getting bilked out of their money. I'm less convinced on the transfers - part of college sports is seeing your guys develop and grow. College basketball is almost like everyone picks teams at the start of the year, which isn't particularly entertaining.
I think a one time transfer portal rule is fine. sometimes kids don't want to be at a place anymore. let them go. it's almost like fans have an abusive boyfriend relationship where they want to force a chick that doesn't want to be around anymore to stay with them or else....

see no problem with someone going to a school, deciding hey this isn't for me, let me leave. shit happens. sometimes the kids made a bad decision in HS and decided to go to a wrong school. think the one time portal rule is fine. and I think if head coaches decide to leave or get fired via scandal (think Northwestern) that players should also have the right to explore a transfer without losing any eligbility.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on August 31, 2023, 11:08:11 AM
Portal swings both ways.  Some players didn't do squat at their original school, they make something of themselves at the next stop.  Some players find that they just needed a smaller program from the get go, some matured in 2-3 years and going to "the next CFB Level" is a good move for them.  A guy at say, New Mexico, now has the opportunity to go to an Alabama or OU when they never even gave him a look out of High School.  He then gets to show his stuff on a larger stage, get more attention, better chances in the NFL, and probably better coaching, nutrition, strength conditioning, etc.  

In order to even the playing field I'd propose two things.  

#1- Limit the number of scholarship players from 85 down to maybe 75.  I know that it's tough having the necessary depth etc but the NFL does it with 55.  Obviously there are differences like trading players mid-season and promoting players from practice squads.  But if all teams have a cap of 75 or so, they all have the same limit.  The better teams will have to take less players, and the bubble 3/4* players will be pushed to the 2nd tier programs like Wisconsin, A&M, oSu, and such.  

#2- Make eligibility 5 years.  It's been said a lot that a college degree really takes 5 years.  My thought on it is that the smaller schools with less talent would benefit from players who aren't likely to turn pro, and there are a lot of really great CFB players who won't do squat in the NFL.  And if we're really moving away from the amateur model, who really gives a shit how long these guys play?  I say give em 5 years, no medical redshirts etc.  5 years from the first day they strap on pads or start practice.  

Obviously the #1 and #2 things interfere with each other because now they will be forced to sign less players per season, but each team should be affected equally.  Plus, there is always the portal to fill gaps.  

I also think there should be some kind of incentive for players who don't transfer.  Say the NCAA awards $XX,XXX dollars to athletes who finish their full 5 years at the same school.  

I've often thought that smaller schools like KSU, oSu, etc would greatly benefit from having those special players stay for that 5th year.  Players like Collin Klein who won't ever make waves in the NFL but are just great college FB players.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 11:17:21 AM
Portal swings both ways.  Some players didn't do squat at their original school, they make something of themselves at the next stop.  Some players find that they just needed a smaller program from the get go, some matured in 2-3 years and going to "the next CFB Level" is a good move for them.  A guy at say, New Mexico, now has the opportunity to go to an Alabama or OU when they never even gave him a look out of High School.  He then gets to show his stuff on a larger stage, get more attention, better chances in the NFL, and probably better coaching, nutrition, strength conditioning, etc. 

In order to even the playing field I'd propose two things. 

#1- Limit the number of scholarship players from 85 down to maybe 75.  I know that it's tough having the necessary depth etc but the NFL does it with 55.  Obviously there are differences like trading players mid-season and promoting players from practice squads.  But if all teams have a cap of 75 or so, they all have the same limit.  The better teams will have to take less players, and the bubble 3/4* players will be pushed to the 2nd tier programs like Wisconsin, A&M, oSu, and such. 

#2- Make eligibility 5 years.  It's been said a lot that a college degree really takes 5 years.  My thought on it is that the smaller schools with less talent would benefit from players who aren't likely to turn pro, and there are a lot of really great CFB players who won't do squat in the NFL.  And if we're really moving away from the amateur model, who really gives a shit how long these guys play?  I say give em 5 years, no medical redshirts etc.  5 years from the first day they strap on pads or start practice. 

Obviously the #1 and #2 things interfere with each other because now they will be forced to sign less players per season, but each team should be affected equally.  Plus, there is always the portal to fill gaps. 

I also think there should be some kind of incentive for players who don't transfer.  Say the NCAA awards $XX,XXX dollars to athletes who finish their full 5 years at the same school. 

I've often thought that smaller schools like KSU, oSu, etc would greatly benefit from having those special players stay for that 5th year.  Players like Collin Klein who won't ever make waves in the NFL but are just great college FB players. 
bolded part - that's a great idea. NCAA/schools should award players who finish their degrees- incentivize them to get a degree. great idea.

underlined part - NIL is already doing that. if you're a star player on a college team but not a high level rd 1-3 prospect, you'll make just as much or more staying in school and collecting fat NIL checks for your last year.

I also like the idea of limiting scholarships to 75. Don't think there is a need for 85. NFL does it with 53 roster spots plus 16 practice squad guys per team. 75 scholarship players should be more than enough. Spread the wealth. Make college coaches earn their insane paychecks with crack scouting & development.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on August 31, 2023, 11:29:25 AM
I'm with you. I like all the changes because it benefits the player. At the end of the day that's all any fan should care about. The players.
How is NFLizing anything good for the community? You like rewarding the players fine,but I don't like additional taxes that benefit literally Billionaire owners and millionaire players to build their playhouse. Here in Cleveland there is a 23 yr old Stadium and real slimeball in a sea of puss owner Haslem wants to stick the taxpayers with either massive updates or a new facility. Let the owners or those who want to vote for the tax fund it. Bridges,roadways in disrepair or constant repair storm sewers flooding basements and all other civic resposibilities lagging and this asshole thinks we should fund his 230 million dollar QB? Let alone one that was known groper of woman even if he somehow found jesus. If I get my hands around Haslams neck he'll meet jesus alright

They hoodwink the masses to pay for this shit I honestly think the last one for the updates like 6-7-8 yrs a go was rigged/fixed. No one and I mean NO ONE I talked to voted for it. They don't want higher alcohol/Liquor prices that are already getting obscene.The only ones benefitting are the rich.There is a downtown parking lot near the stadium that has been a tailgate hotspot for years.Friends went down to a game last year and they were fetching 50.00 just to park.
the financial flatulence that has arisen in the cost of homes/cars/utilities/food and fuel can clearly be stemmed here Eff them it has to end sometime can't afford to park or go to the games and it's not a necessity. They reap the dividends let them make the investment.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 31, 2023, 11:33:28 AM
bolded part - that's a great idea. NCAA/schools should award players who finish their degrees- incentivize them to get a degree. great idea.
Wisconsin already does this.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 31, 2023, 12:11:45 PM
BTW I always considered the NC above Purdue's ceiling. Just finding some way to backdoor a conference championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl, maybe even a win(!) there, is about all that any Purdue fan thought would/could happen.

Realistically Purdue, to get enough votes in the old system, would have to go undefeated.

Counting the bowl game, Purdue hasn't had a season with 3 or fewer losses since they went 9-3 (with a bowl win) in 1997. Most recent 2-loss season (with a bowl win) was 1979. Most recent 2-loss regular season was 1969. Most recent one-loss season was 1958, but that season also had two ties to finish 6-1-2. Prior to that they had no more one-loss [or better] seasons until 1943, which incidentally is also their most recent undefeated season. But, ya know, there might be a little asterisk what with a World War on and all...

So at best would be an appearance in the Rose Bowl. Which Purdue is likely to never again do in my lifetime, other than playing a conference away game at UCLA, of course.
I did say it was a slim chance but hey, BYU was awarded one with a team that was no better than about 20th nationally so it did happen in the old days, it was just exceedingly rare.  

That said, you "dropping out" of CFB fandom and this comment from @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) have me concerned for the health of the sport:
I love fall.  I love fall cooking.  I like Oktoberfest and pumpkin (sorry) beers.  I associate those things with college football, and thus it's all still somewhat intertwined.  But I certainly no longer love college football.  I'm not even sure I like it.  It has fallen behind the NFL and the MLB playoffs in my watching hierarchy
My concern is that we (here on this board) aren't "average" CFB fans.  We are the extreme fanatical outliers and if even we are losing interest, that has to be a bad sign!  

I note that the two examples here are fans of schools that are NOT helmets.  

As I see it, the CFP is sucking all the oxygen out of the room.  In the past it was a much more regional sport.  The most important thing to a Purdue fan as to beat Indiana and if anything beyond that, maybe knock off a helmet (ND, tOSU, or M for Purdue).  To an MSU fan the biggest goal was to knock off "big brother" followed by other helmets (ND, tOSU).  Then for both the possibility of winning the league (even if it was a split title) and possibly getting to or even potentially winning the Rose Bowl were plausibly achievable goals that kept fans of non-helmet schools interested.  

Note these comments:
I think pining for the past can be limiting, we can still enjoy the present, I think, or I do anyway (the last two seasons were pretty fun).
I'm with you. I like all the changes because it benefits the player. At the end of the day that's all any fan should care about. The players.  

@Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) 's team won the last two NC's so his enjoying the present is hardly surprising.  @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) 's team made the CFP the last two years so again, his enjoyment of the current system is hardly surprising.  

I'm in the same boat.  My team has been in the NC discussion almost every year so of course I'm still enjoying CFB.  

My concern is that I doubt that CFB can sustain itself with only fans of UGA, Bama, tOSU, M, and a few other schools that can actually compete once all the fans of PU, MSU and the rest of the non-helmets go the way of @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) and either drop out or decide that the NFL and the MLB playoffs are more important.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2023, 12:24:00 PM

My concern is that I doubt that CFB can sustain itself with only fans of UGA, Bama, tOSU, M, and a few other schools that can actually compete once all the fans of PU, MSU and the rest of the non-helmets go the way of @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) and either drop out or decide that the NFL and the MLB playoffs are more important. 

Yup.  College football is absolutely killing the golden goose.

But College Football Armageddon is going to end the game as we know it, even before the greedy bastages manage to squeeze all the life out of that goose.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 12:50:19 PM
My concern is that I doubt that CFB can sustain itself with only fans of UGA, Bama, tOSU, M, and a few other schools that can actually compete once all the fans of PU, MSU and the rest of the non-helmets go the way of @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) and either drop out or decide that the NFL and the MLB playoffs are more important.
it's always been a sport of the haves vs have nots. nothing has really changed. what changed things for the worse is the playoff ruining the bowls bc now there is really no point to play in a bowl game and risk injury if you're going to be a 1st or 2nd rd pick. my hope is that by expanding the playoffs they will fix some of that.

the sport has always been in desperate need for parity. that is why I think going to a 48 to maybe even 60 team super league and trimming a lot of the fat that is left over from the B12/ACC/PAC4, cutting scholarships to about 75, and then allowing for revenue share with the players and instituting a salary cap where every player makes the exact same thing at every school might be the way to go. make it so that guys that finish their degrees get bonus $$$$.

do all that. keep the one time transfer portal rule. NIL is here to stay can't really do anything with that- but by doing a rev share with a salary cap where every single program pays X million a year in salary and every player from every program gets paid the same thing- you can probably get rid of the NIL collectives that set up those funds where position X makes X amount- which is really just pay for play schemes to try and get recruits at that position to come to the school. Won't really be a need for that with rev share and players actually earning money. NIL can instead than be used what it was intended for- letting the proven star players and starting QBs to cash in on their names and earn money.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 31, 2023, 01:41:00 PM
Yup.  College football is absolutely killing the golden goose.
Agreed.  Upthread I said that I thought they had their hands wrapped firmly around the goose's neck with apparently no concept that if the goose dies, the eggs stop coming.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2023, 01:47:22 PM
truly is an art not a science.

Tim Couch went #1 overall. Tom Brady went in the 6th round. Crazy.
It's not totally random of course.  There is some correlaation between high draft pick and NFL success, but the exceptions stand out.
Yup.

And sometimes it's neither an art nor a science, but rather a crapshoot.


I think Cincy is right. We can all point to early-round busts and late-round gems and call it a crapshoot, but it's not a crapshoot. 

It's like poker. If you always make the right statistical plays (at least in limit games), you're likely to have few "monster nights" but a net positive outcome over the long term. If you make risk plays, try to bluff a lot, and generally go for the big scores rather than the statistical play, you might win big on a lot of nights, lose big on a lot of nights, and have a net negative outcome over the long term. 

I'd argue a team like the Patriots are built on making non-flashy, solid, statistical plays. A team like the Browns goes "all-in" pre-flop with a massive contract to Deshaun Watson in a high-risk, high-reward strategy that if it fails, hampers their ability to make any good moves later. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on August 31, 2023, 01:53:45 PM
The Browns are so pathetic. Seriously, what have they done to deserve any fan support at all ?  

Fans should just do themselves a favor and quit on the teams that are just so miserable and terrible year after year, decade after decade. Make them earn it. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2023, 01:55:15 PM
I'm with you. I like all the changes because it benefits the player. At the end of the day that's all any fan should care about. The players.
I understand where you're coming from. 

However, some of the changes might be good for the player in the short term, but damage the sport long term. Because if the sport is just Michigan/OSU/Georgia/Bama/USC/Texas/ND/etc battling it out every single year, and NOBODY else has a chance because they can't recruit and spend with those guys, well, you'll see fans start to step back from the game. And then ratings drop. And then revenues drop. And then the goose is dead and we run out of golden eggs.

We've never had true parity in the past. But we've at least have reasons for the lesser teams to care. Now we don't, and I might argue it will hollow out the fandom of the sport because there's a lot of other things to do on Saturday for the fanbases of those schools than watch the games. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 31, 2023, 02:00:20 PM
I understand where you're coming from.

However, some of the changes might be good for the player in the short term, but damage the sport long term. Because if the sport is just Michigan/OSU/Georgia/Bama/USC/Texas/ND/etc battling it out every single year, and NOBODY else has a chance because they can't recruit and spend with those guys, well, you'll see fans start to step back from the game. And then ratings drop. And then revenues drop. And then the goose is dead and we run out of golden eggs.

We've never had true parity in the past. But we've at least have reasons for the lesser teams to care. Now we don't, and I might argue it will hollow out the fandom of the sport because there's a lot of other things to do on Saturday for the fanbases of those schools than watch the games.

This is true. My wife asked me if we were boating Saturday and I said we weren't.

If this goes how I (and you) think it's gonna go, the answer in the future will be yes.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2023, 02:02:19 PM
#1- Limit the number of scholarship players from 85 down to maybe 75.  I know that it's tough having the necessary depth etc but the NFL does it with 55.  Obviously there are differences like trading players mid-season and promoting players from practice squads.  But if all teams have a cap of 75 or so, they all have the same limit.  The better teams will have to take less players, and the bubble 3/4* players will be pushed to the 2nd tier programs like Wisconsin, A&M, oSu, and such. 
Couple of issues here.

First, the college game is by definition a development level of the sport. ESPECIALLY for the OL and the defensive front 7. These are positions where having a player have a competition-ready body coming out of HS is REALLY rare. Whereas someone who enters the NFL via the draft will typically have had at least 3 years of physical development and be capable of competing. Since you're not going to have any player that spends 9 years with your franchise like in the NFL, and since you're waiting on pure physical development from others, 75 in the NCAA is going to be FAR more limiting than what the NFL sees.

Second, there's also the aspect of "scholarship players" which could potentially get problematic. Players with real endorsement deals like DJ w/ Dr Pepper or Caleb Williams certainly can afford to pay their own tuition and don't need a scholarship. If these NIL collectives just decide to up their contribution to pay someone's tuition and room & board, a lot of schools could make an end-around any scholarship limits by having much larger rosters of non-scholarship players and blow parity out of the water anyway. I think instead of limiting scholarship players, you would need to limit roster size directly. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2023, 02:05:22 PM
the sport has always been in desperate need for parity. that is why I think going to a 48 to maybe even 60 team super league and trimming a lot of the fat that is left over from the B12/ACC/PAC4, cutting scholarships to about 75, and then allowing for revenue share with the players and instituting a salary cap where every player makes the exact same thing at every school might be the way to go. make it so that guys that finish their degrees get bonus $$$$.
Yes, it has. But what incentive to the helmets and quasi-helmets have to share the piece of the pie with the rest of the old P5? 

I would think that instead what they'd try to do is make a 20-24 team super league and just cut everyone else out entirely. And then they're NFL-Lite, which is going to get no attention outside of the fans of those 20-24 teams because it's not just NFL-Lite, it's NFL-Worse. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 31, 2023, 02:09:09 PM
it's always been a sport of the haves vs have nots. 
Agree.  
nothing has really changed. 
Disagree.  What changed is that, as discussed upthread, fans of "have nots" as you put it had non-NC things to root for that were seen as worthwhile.  Those things (beating rivals, knocking off helmets, winning a league title once in a great while, winning the Rose Bowl) were enticing enough that @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) (PU) and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) (MSU) were serious followers of the sport as a whole.  I think we are losing those guys and if we're losing message board fanatics like those two guys, we're in big trouble.  
what changed things for the worse is the playoff ruining the bowls bc now there is really no point to play in a bowl game and risk injury if you're going to be a 1st or 2nd rd pick. my hope is that by expanding the playoffs they will fix some of that.
As I've said before, the CFP has effectively sucked all the oxygen out of the room.  When I was a kid up through college (the BCS didn't start until after I graduated) even a "helmet" fan like me was really rooting for sub-NC goals.  We always said the goals were:
Here I somewhat disagree with @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) .  I still want to beat Michigan and especially after two-straight losses but for me, that has lost a part of it's importance.  I think it is fair to say that Brutus sees it as an end in and of itself where I always saw it as a means to an end.  Generally in the past, goals #2, #3, and #4 were dependent upon achieving goal #1.  Now it only somewhat is and when we expand to a 12-team CFP winning the NC will be only marginally related to the outcome of The Game.  

Once the playoff expands to 12 there will be no more high-end non-CFP bowls.  On top of that, regular season games will each individually be vastly less important and I'll have almost no reason whatsoever to care about regular season games not involving my team.  

I still root for MY team and I still watch most of MY team's games but I'm much more willing to miss one here or there because if I miss the Maryland game (because it is on Peacock and I don't bother to use @Temp430 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=131) 's code for a discount) and Ohio State loses, so what?  The Buckeyes can still get to the CFP.  In the old days a random upset like that would have been devastating.  Now it just narrows the path but there is still a viable path.  

Expanding the playoff will create more interesting playoff games but I don't see it as fixing anything.  At best it simply replaces interesting Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl matchups with interesting CFP matchups.  

The great thing about CFB was always that each regular season game was important.  I've watched a lot of games involving helmets around the country over the years usually because I was rooting for @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's Gators or @rolltidefan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=12) 's Tide or @utee's Longhorns to lose.  I'm sure those guys have watched a number of Ohio State games rooting for Ohio State to lose for the same reason, to clear room for their own team in the NC or BCS or CFP.  Once we go to 12 that all becomes rather meaningless.  
the sport has always been in desperate need for parity. that is why I think going to a 48 to maybe even 60 team super league and trimming a lot of the fat that is left over from the B12/ACC/PAC4, cutting scholarships to about 75, and then allowing for revenue share with the players and instituting a salary cap where every player makes the exact same thing at every school might be the way to go. make it so that guys that finish their degrees get bonus $$$$.

do all that. keep the one time transfer portal rule. NIL is here to stay can't really do anything with that- but by doing a rev share with a salary cap where every single program pays X million a year in salary and every player from every program gets paid the same thing- you can probably get rid of the NIL collectives that set up those funds where position X makes X amount- which is really just pay for play schemes to try and get recruits at that position to come to the school. Won't really be a need for that with rev share and players actually earning money. NIL can instead than be used what it was intended for- letting the proven star players and starting QBs to cash in on their names and earn money.
I think that this might make for an interesting discussion but I also think that the discussion would be purely academic because it is simply NEVER going to happen.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 31, 2023, 02:19:00 PM
I think Cincy is right. We can all point to early-round busts and late-round gems and call it a crapshoot, but it's not a crapshoot.

It's like poker. If you always make the right statistical plays (at least in limit games), you're likely to have few "monster nights" but a net positive outcome over the long term. If you make risk plays, try to bluff a lot, and generally go for the big scores rather than the statistical play, you might win big on a lot of nights, lose big on a lot of nights, and have a net negative outcome over the long term.

I'd argue a team like the Patriots are built on making non-flashy, solid, statistical plays. A team like the Browns goes "all-in" pre-flop with a massive contract to Deshaun Watson in a high-risk, high-reward strategy that if it fails, hampers their ability to make any good moves later.
I agree, it is not different than recruiting.  There are plenty of examples of 5* busts and 2* All Americans but that doesn't mean that 2*'s are better than 5*'s.  Statistically 5*'s ARE better but there are exceptions.  

On the Browns, I think their main mistake was something you kinda referred to but I'll add some more context.  

I think that if you are GM of a bad NFL team like the Browns have been for nearly the entire 20-odd years since they came back the best draft strategy is to trade away your flashy high-end picks for MORE intermediate picks.  You can probably typically get a first and second round pick for a better team for our higher first round pick.  That way you get more guys and statistically more chances to get it right and more ability to absorb a bust.  

Where I think trading up makes sense is when you have a good team that needs a piece or two.  Say you have a 10-6ish team that is pretty solid generally but just really doesn't have a gamechanger at WR.  Ok, trade up and take a high-end WR.  If it works out, your 10-6ish playoff team is likely to become a 12-4 or 13-3 conference CG or Super Bowl team.  If not, eh, you are still probably a .500+ playoff team (or at least contender).  
The Browns are so pathetic. Seriously, what have they done to deserve any fan support at all ? 

Fans should just do themselves a favor and quit on the teams that are just so miserable and terrible year after year, decade after decade. Make them earn it.
This is where I am with pro sports.  I'm admittedly a fair weather fan.  I'm not a bandwagon guy because I don't jump from team to team.  I stick with my local teams, I just don't bother to follow them unless they "earn it" as you said, but being good enough to be worth following.  If and when the Browns get to the playoffs, I'll be there rooting for them.  If they go 3-13 I will not have wasted any time following them.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2023, 02:20:42 PM
 What changed is that, as discussed upthread, fans of "have nots" as you put it had non-NC things to root for that were seen as worthwhile.  Those things (beating rivals, knocking off helmets, winning a league title once in a great while, winning the Rose Bowl) were enticing enough that @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) (PU) and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) (MSU) were serious followers of the sport as a whole.  I think we are losing those guys and if we're losing message board fanatics like those two guys, we're in big trouble.  

Yup.  I have a good friend who is a longtime die hard Texas Tech fan.  He's now despondent about the whole thing and hasn't watched college football since TX/OU announced they were leaving the B12.  He just doesn't care anymore.  And this guy was a MASSIVE fan, traveled from Austin to Lubbock for pretty much every home game, ran a big tailgate party up there, and attended plenty of UT home games just to get a fix when he couldn't make it to Lubbock.

Now, he just doesn't care.  At all.  This is not an isolated case, it's happening all over the place. I don't see it stopping, it'll only get worse in the coming years.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 31, 2023, 02:52:36 PM
Yup.  I have a good friend who is a longtime die hard Texas Tech fan.  He's now despondent about the whole thing and hasn't watched college football since TX/OU announced they were leaving the B12.  He just doesn't care anymore.  And this guy was a MASSIVE fan, traveled from Austin to Lubbock for pretty much every home game, ran a big tailgate party up there, and attended plenty of UT home games just to get a fix when he couldn't make it to Lubbock.

Now, he just doesn't care.  At all.  This is not an isolated case, it's happening all over the place. I don't see it stopping, it'll only get worse in the coming years.
I knew it was far but I wasn't sure how far so I checked and Google says Austin->Lubbock is six hours . . . Each way. That's 12 hours of driving plus probably two nights in a hotel for each game.

Like you said, massive fan. If we are losing guys like that and the two from our board, we're in big trouble.

I think part of the reason we are losing them is that their team's can no longer ruin our teams' seasons. In the old days a Texas loss in Lubbock or an Ohio State loss in West Lafayette or a Michigan loss in East Lansing usually derailed TX/tOSU/M's NC hopes. Thus, TxTech, PU, and MSU could and did have a major impact on the NC race. Now, not so much. Next year, hardly at all.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2023, 03:32:26 PM
I knew it was far but I wasn't sure how far so I checked and Google says Austin->Lubbock is six hours . . . Each way. That's 12 hours of driving plus probably two nights in a hotel for each game.

Like you said, massive fan. If we are losing guys like that and the two from our board, we're in big trouble.

I think part of the reason we are losing them is that their team's can no longer ruin our teams' seasons. In the old days a Texas loss in Lubbock or an Ohio State loss in West Lafayette or a Michigan loss in East Lansing usually derailed TX/tOSU/M's NC hopes. Thus, TxTech, PU, and MSU could and did have a major impact on the NC race. Now, not so much. Next year, hardly at all.
Absolutely.  Even if those teams weren't a direct part of the NC race, they could still affect the ultimate outcomes.  

And I used to date a girl that went to Tech.  That is a long, boring drive.  But I will say, she was totally worth it.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2023, 03:41:51 PM
I was a big Braves fan through the 80s when they were horrible, annually in last place most years.  I think they won the division in 82/83 then went south.  But they were entertaining, and on WTBS of course.  Ted Turner had bought this ridiculous UHF station, Channel 17, we could just barely get a fuzzy signal, and there was little on it worth watching anyway.  Then he bought the Braves, and broadcast every game (nearly).  Then cable erupted and now they had fans in places like Idaho (still do apparently).

I still enjoyed watching them, it was low stress, if they won it was a feel good miracle.  If they lost, well, it was expected.

It can be fun just viewing for pure entertainment.  I do agree the times when a "Purdue" can upset an "Ohio State" may be waining, or gone.  I don't think that is fixable outside a year when Ohio State is just really down (as if).  Maybe the elite teams will never be down significantly any more, I dunno.  Florida is an example of that currently.  Their O/U is 5.5 I think for 2023.  How does that happen?  Is it just coaching?



Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 04:02:38 PM
I was a big Braves fan through the 80s when they were horrible, annually in last place most years.  I think they won the division in 82/83 then went south.  But they were entertaining, and on WTBS of course.  Ted Turner had bought this ridiculous UHF station, Channel 17, we could just barely get a fuzzy signal, and there was little on it worth watching anyway.  Then he bought the Braves, and broadcast every game (nearly).  Then cable erupted and now they had fans in places like Idaho (still do apparently).

I still enjoyed watching them, it was low stress, if they won it was a feel good miracle.  If they lost, well, it was expected.

It can be fun just viewing for pure entertainment.  I do agree the times when a "Purdue" can upset an "Ohio State" may be waining, or gone.  I don't think that is fixable outside a year when Ohio State is just really down (as if).  Maybe the elite teams will never be down significantly any more, I dunno.  Florida is an example of that currently.  Their O/U is 5.5 I think for 2023.  How does that happen?  Is it just coaching?
years of falling behind the top dawgs (see what I did there Cincy) in the SEC compounding like interest due to lots of bad coaching hires back to back to back in succession post-Urbs. gets to a point where you wind up so far behind the elite and it all just snowballs south and the odds of turning it around become more and more insurmountable. then when you find an elite coach- all bets are off- he can flip it fast. lots of good coaches. very few elite ones. 

we like to think such and such school is "coach proof" hire anyone and they'll be successful. that's just not the case and it never was. USC, Texas, Florida, Miami, Bama, ND, Michigan - all have had lost decades in the wilderness. Ohio State might've went that way had they not gotten Urbs- who flipped a 6-7 team to 12-0 year 1 and built them into even more of a juggernaut and the guy who is kicking ass right now for them- Ryan Day- was a guy that Urbs handpicked.

Miami is proof positive that no place is coach proof. They have such a massive advantage when it comes to recruiting grounds/location that if they just kept the very elite top kids from 3 counties- Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach - they'd be a playoff team every year. Yet they have pretty much sucked ass for 20 years and have been bleeding those kids like Floyd Mayweather bleeds cash.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 31, 2023, 04:38:15 PM
That 6-7 team that Urbs flipped was loaded with talent, and because he was able to come in November and immediately start recruiting, voila. 

The team was in turmoil because they lost their coach. Tressel would have coached that team to 10 wins. Fickell was put in a tough spot as interim coach too. Some of the kids just checked out.

But it's OSU. Fire a legend - Tressel. Bring in Urban - elite.

Duh.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 04:43:10 PM
That 6-7 team that Urbs flipped was loaded with talent, and because he was able to come in November and immediately start recruiting, voila.

The team was in turmoil because they lost their coach. Tressel would have coached that team to 10 wins. Fickell was put in a tough spot as interim coach too. Some of the kids just checked out.

But it's OSU. Fire a legend - Tressel. Bring in Urban - elite.

Duh.
all true. but my point was that they were extremely fortunate and blessed to get Urbs when they did. 

say Urbs actually had health problems and wasn't ever coaching again....which is what he said to get outta the mess he created at UF.....say they go for a hot big name at the moment like Michigan did with RichRod or Nebraska did with Scott Frost...but that hot big name wound up being a dud....like RichRod and Scott Frost...OSU ain't still OSU.

they were able to replace a CFB HOF national title winning coach with....a better CFB HOF national title winning coach. That shit just doesn't happen anywhere else.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 31, 2023, 04:47:41 PM
Absolutely. A stroke of luck too.

What happens to Bama when Saban is done?

Dubose? Francione? Price? Shula? 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 31, 2023, 05:15:31 PM
That 6-7 team that Urbs flipped was loaded with talent, and because he was able to come in November and immediately start recruiting, voila.

The team was in turmoil because they lost their coach. Tressel would have coached that team to 10 wins. Fickell was put in a tough spot as interim coach too. Some of the kids just checked out.

But it's OSU. Fire a legend - Tressel. Bring in Urban - elite.

Duh.
I agree with everything you said and I'll add that the 6-7 team had a lot of bad luck and the 12-0 team had a lot of good luck.  The two games that immediately spring to mind are the two Purdue games because I attended both:
At Purdue in 2011:
With less than a minute to go Ohio State scored what should have been the winning TD.  The Buckeyes were down 20-14 and scored a TD but the XP was blocked and Purdue won in OT.  

Vs Purdue in 2012:
Ohio State was down by the same 20-14 score after a late-third-quarter Purdue TD.  Then in the fourth quarter Ohio State committed a penalty near the goal that resulted in a safety making it an eight-point game at 22-14.  Then, with less than three minutes to go Purdue got what should have been the game-clinching interception.  Purdue got the ball up by eight with 2:40 to go then proceeded to do pretty much everything wrong:
Even after all of that, Ohio State's chances were still pretty remote.  They had the ball but they needed a TD and a 2pt conversion, and to win the game in OT.  Oh, and they only had a little better than thirty seconds left.  Then career backup Kenny Guiton put on his superhero cape and proceeded to do incredible things for a few minutes and Ohio State scored a TD, converted a 2pt conversion, scored another TD in OT, and won the game 29-22.  

The 2011 team was 6-7 but six of the seven losses were within one score:
Then the 2012 team had a slew of close wins:
Those two teams weren't nearly as far as their records made it look.  


My point is that the difference between them wasn't nearly as big as one would assume.  I'm sure some of the close game difference comes down to coaching but some of it was just dumb luck.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2023, 05:24:07 PM
Absolutely. A stroke of luck too.

What happens to Bama when Saban is done?

Dubose? Francione? Price? Shula?
Smart?  Obviously a germane question even as soon as 2024 possibly.  I'm available.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 05:25:38 PM
Smart?  Obviously a germane question even as soon as 2024 possibly.  I'm available.
Kirby might be a UGA lifer. not even 50 yet and not sure he'll ever be a high level NFL head coach prospect.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2023, 05:27:07 PM

The 2011 team was 6-7 but six of the seven losses were within one score:
  • To Nebraska by a TD, the largest comeback in UNL history, I travelled to Lincoln for this one, thanks @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10)  for hosting. 
one of my favorite memories
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2023, 05:45:22 PM
Vs Purdue in 2012:
Ohio State was down by the same 20-14 score after a late-third-quarter Purdue TD.  Then in the fourth quarter Ohio State committed a penalty near the goal that resulted in a safety making it an eight-point game at 22-14.  Then, with less than three minutes to go Purdue got what should have been the game-clinching interception.  Purdue got the ball up by eight with 2:40 to go then proceeded to do pretty much everything wrong:
  • False Start before their first down play made it 1st and 15. 
  • 1st and 15 was a one-yard gain. 
  • 2nd and 14 Purdue rushed but only gained a yard. 
  • 3rd and 13 Purdue rushed for seven. 
  • 4th and 6 Purdue punted. 
Even after all of that, Ohio State's chances were still pretty remote.  They had the ball but they needed a TD and a 2pt conversion, and to win the game in OT.  Oh, and they only had a little better than thirty seconds left.  Then career backup Kenny Guiton put on his superhero cape and proceeded to do incredible things for a few minutes and Ohio State scored a TD, converted a 2pt conversion, scored another TD in OT, and won the game 29-22. 
Speaking of banana peels, how 'bout them 2012 Boilermakers?!

OSU and PSU *both* ineligible for postseason play so the only conference threat is Wisconsin. Danny Hope in his 4th year, following up the injury-plagued 2010 year with a seeming "upswing" year in 2011 and returning a bunch of starters. 

So what did they do with a dream year setup? 

Once they hit conference play, get stomped by Michigan, get stomped by Wisconsin, choke away a winnable "redemption" game against OSU in OT, get stomped by Minnesota, and stomped by PSU, starting 0-5 in league play, leading to shit-canning HC Danny Hope with 3 weeks left in the season. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 31, 2023, 07:52:21 PM
Miami has been in the ACC for 18 years and has 1 division title.  
And they got their asses beaten in that CCG.

Poor coaching/recruiting/development will retard any and all programs.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on August 31, 2023, 08:15:00 PM
Miami has been in the ACC for 18 years and has 1 division title. 
And they got their asses beaten in that CCG.

Poor coaching/recruiting/development will retard any and all programs.
100%. 

Miami is the prime example of no place being "fool proof" - even moreso than USC imo. Always have to have the coach in place and the recruiting/development follows that. The talent pool in South Florida is so insane that Miami could literally recruit within a 75 mile radius of any direction and always have a roster chock full of NFL starters and Pro Bowlers. They have either passed on them (Lamar Jackson) or missed out on them on the trail (way too many to list). 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 31, 2023, 08:24:41 PM
They had a good discussion on the Athletic college football podcast this week about whether it would be better to have a super league, and let the rest of the sport revert to their previous goals.  Ideally, sure.  But if that was the the case, the Group of 5 would already have their own playoff.  But they'd rather let their best team play in a random bowl game against a P5 team who finished 3rd in their league, without all of their NFL talent.  Appalachian State gave up winning FCS titles, to be in the Sun Belt.  Setting a new line, just makes anyone below that line want to be above it.

Sure a Purdue can still upset an Ohio State, but it doesn't matter anymore.  So that's where it hits me.  I distinctly remember playing touch football in my backyard, and my dad yelling to us that Indiana was tied with Ohio State.  We stopped the game, and watched it, due to the implications.  We've removed a good deal of those implications.  If Indiana beats OSU, OSU can still beat UM and PSU, reach the CCG, where they will likely win, and go to the CFP.  The sport needs a 2 team title game, and meaningful bowl games, based upon merit, not sales.

Forcing people to care about bowl games is past.  But if you tied bowl games to record, and then tied tangible benefits to both qualifying and winning bowl games, now you have something.  Like qualifying for a better bowl gave you additional recruiting time, or scholarships, and then winning that game gave you even more?  Now those games have a meaning.  And if you are fine with bowls just being meaningless, then you are also fine with 99% of college football games being meaningless
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on August 31, 2023, 08:25:31 PM
Miami has been in the ACC for 18 years and has 1 division title. 
And they got their asses beaten in that CCG.

Poor coaching/recruiting/development will retard any and all programs.
I put that elsewhere.  No top 15ish program should be handicapped by roster, but they can be handicapped by bad coaching hires
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on August 31, 2023, 09:50:00 PM
Isn’t Miami really kind of a fluke though?  Smallish private school, no history at all prior to the 80’s, rises to prominence and had some questionable recruiting practices ( along with a lot of other programs I might add). Sure they won big in the 80’s and for a few years in the early 2000’s, but does anybody really think they can reclaim any kind of superstar future moving forward?  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 31, 2023, 10:17:01 PM
Yes.
They will never lack for talent for any extended period of time.
They could recruit a top 20 class using only a golf cart.
That's a built-in advantage almost no one else has.

They obviously haven't built off of that lately, but any B-grade HC or better should win there, with sporadic elite peaks.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: bayareabadger on September 01, 2023, 07:19:32 AM
They had a good discussion on the Athletic college football podcast this week about whether it would be better to have a super league, and let the rest of the sport revert to their previous goals.  Ideally, sure.  But if that was the the case, the Group of 5 would already have their own playoff.  But they'd rather let their best team play in a random bowl game against a P5 team who finished 3rd in their league, without all of their NFL talent.  Appalachian State gave up winning FCS titles, to be in the Sun Belt.  Setting a new line, just makes anyone below that line want to be above it.

Sure a Purdue can still upset an Ohio State, but it doesn't matter anymore.  So that's where it hits me.  I distinctly remember playing touch football in my backyard, and my dad yelling to us that Indiana was tied with Ohio State.  We stopped the game, and watched it, due to the implications.  We've removed a good deal of those implications.  If Indiana beats OSU, OSU can still beat UM and PSU, reach the CCG, where they will likely win, and go to the CFP.  The sport needs a 2 team title game, and meaningful bowl games, based upon merit, not sales.

Forcing people to care about bowl games is past.  But if you tied bowl games to record, and then tied tangible benefits to both qualifying and winning bowl games, now you have something.  Like qualifying for a better bowl gave you additional recruiting time, or scholarships, and then winning that game gave you even more?  Now those games have a meaning.  And if you are fine with bowls just being meaningless, then you are also fine with 99% of college football games being meaningless
Who was hosting? I have a guess, and while I like the make, his perspective is … complicated.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 07:41:31 AM
I'm along for the ride as I have zero influence over all of this.  I do like thinking about what the future holds.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on September 01, 2023, 08:08:36 AM
Who was hosting? I have a guess, and while I like the make, his perspective is … complicated.
Ari Wasserman.

And the last paragraph is my own idea, he didn't suggest that
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 08:17:20 AM
Kirby might be a UGA lifer. not even 50 yet and not sure he'll ever be a high level NFL head coach prospect.
Kirby Smart played for Georgia!!
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 08:20:39 AM
Isn’t Miami really kind of a fluke though?  Smallish private school, no history at all prior to the 80’s, rises to prominence and had some questionable recruiting practices ( along with a lot of other programs I might add). Sure they won big in the 80’s and for a few years in the early 2000’s, but does anybody really think they can reclaim any kind of superstar future moving forward? 
I'd guess they are one elite coach away from being relevant again.  The kind that grows on trees ...

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 08:21:53 AM
Kirby Smart played for Georgia!!
Yeah, he was pretty good too.  I can't see his leaving UGA for anything other than poor performance or health/family reasons.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 08:24:32 AM
I'd guess they are one elite coach away from being relevant again.  The kind that grows on trees ...


I wouldn't call Dennis Erickson or Larry Coker elite coaches by any stretch.

They just recruited Dade and Broward counties and admissions would take anybody in.

Admissions no longer does that at Miami, by the way. Donna Shalala turned that around.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2023, 08:28:38 AM
Dennis Erickson was elite at cheating.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 08:30:42 AM
I still think an elite coach would  turn them around, even if they could do well with a cheating mediocrity.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 08:41:33 AM
The elite coaches will want to be in the B1G or SEC now.

Dabo will be the next Bama coach.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 01, 2023, 08:57:12 AM
Sure a Purdue can still upset an Ohio State, but it doesn't matter anymore.  So that's where it hits me.  I distinctly remember playing touch football in my backyard, and my dad yelling to us that Indiana was tied with Ohio State.  We stopped the game, and watched it, due to the implications.  We've removed a good deal of those implications.  If Indiana beats OSU, OSU can still beat UM and PSU, reach the CCG, where they will likely win, and go to the CFP.  
There is something here that I want to expand upon.  IIRC, you grew up in Michigan as a Michigan Fan and in a Michigan fan household so when Indiana was tied with Ohio State, that didn't involve your team.  My guess is that your childhood touch football game in Michigan was with a bunch of Michigan fans with *MAYBE* an MSU or ND fan or two sprinkled in so NOBODY involved in this story was a fan of either Indiana or Ohio State.  Despite that, you dropped your game and ran inside to watch the IU/tOSU game because it was a REALLY big deal.  The potential of Ohio State losing to Indiana was HUGE because it would rearrange not only the league title picture but the national title picture as well.  

This is where expanding the playoff to two (BCS) then four (current) and soon 12 is necessarily detrimental to the regular season.  If a bunch of kids in Michigan are playing touch football next year and Indiana is tied with Ohio State why would they care?  Their teams aren't involved and even if Ohio State loses to Indiana that only marginally decreases their chances to win the league and the NC.  

For me, just flipping channels I've done a similar thing.  In the past when any highly ranked team from any league was in a close game, I'd flip to it because it was important.  

The top two teams this year have such ridiculous schedules that it is unlikely but lets say that Georgia or Michigan has a crappy game and their opponent plays out-of-their-minds and the Dawgs or Wolverines end up in a dogfight late in the fourth quarter with Ball State or Bowling Green.  In the old days that would have been monumentally important because a loss like that would more-or-less  have eliminated them from the NC race.  Every fan in the country would have, per your example, dropped their touch football game and run inside to see if the Cardinals/Falcons could pull off the upset.  Now, who cares?   Even after losing to BallSt/BGSU, the Dawgs/Wolverines would still absolutely control their own NC destiny.  Win out, win the SECCG/B1GGC, and you are absolutely in even the 4-team CFP despite an embarrassingly ugly upset loss to BallSt/BGSU.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 09:24:34 AM
I wouldn't call Dennis Erickson or Larry Coker elite coaches by any stretch.

They just recruited Dade and Broward counties and admissions would take anybody in.

Admissions no longer does that at Miami, by the way. Donna Shalala turned that around.
It's true that neither were elite, but they both inherited elite teams with elite rosters from elite coaches day 1 on the job. Erickson inherited a loaded squad from Jimmy Johnson and kept it going. With a little cheating of course. But hey, that never hurt anyone. Coker honestly didn't really do sh*t, he inherited a freaking all-time loaded squad from Butch Davis. Once Davis' players all went pro/graduated and it was all Coker's recruits the team fell apart at the seams into shambles. 

They recruited the shit out of Palm Beach too....nearly as much talent in that county as the other two. Cannot forget Palm Beach. 

Miami is a small private school for rich kids that has always stuck up it's nose at the athletes in the football program, way before Donna Shalala- who hasn't worked there in almost a decade btw. Don't kid yourself, they make massive exceptions still to get kids into the school that would never in a million years otherwise be admitted if they weren't insanely good at football.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 09:25:33 AM
Kirby Smart played for Georgia!!
Yeah....I know. Don't mean shit. Jeem played at Michigan. And his ass is bout to go straight back to the NFL here soon. Kirby will go to the NFL if he wants it and the NFL wants it. Not sure the NFL will ever want it....
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 09:30:23 AM
I still think an elite coach would  turn them around, even if they could do well with a cheating mediocrity.
put a guy like Saban or Kirby who land basically any recruit they want at Miami and they might go 4 years only losing 3 games- which I believe Jimmy Johnson did there back in the day.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 09:33:21 AM
Kirby has a couple guys on staff reputed to be great recruiters.  I suspect Kirby only comes in to seal the deal, or if a kid is iffy and elite.  Location is important.  Alabama is however not a great state for HS talent, nor is it awful.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 09:42:56 AM
Kirby has a couple guys on staff reputed to be great recruiters.  I suspect Kirby only comes in to seal the deal, or if a kid is iffy and elite.  Location is important.  Alabama is however not a great state for HS talent, nor is it awful.
state of Alabama always has few high end top HS talent, but doesn't have the depth of places like TX, FL, CA, GA or OH. does great per capita though. not sure anyone comes close to Louisiana per capita though- something down in the water there.

Whatever Kirby is doing is working, because homeboy is crushing it out the park on the 'crootin trail and has been for the last 6+ years. He has a top 3-5 class every year without fail.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 09:44:50 AM
It's true that neither were elite, but they both inherited elite teams with elite rosters from elite coaches day 1 on the job. Erickson inherited a loaded squad from Jimmy Johnson and kept it going. With a little cheating of course. But hey, that never hurt anyone. Coker honestly didn't really do sh*t, he inherited a freaking all-time loaded squad from Butch Davis. Once Davis' players all went pro/graduated and it was all Coker's recruits the team fell apart at the seams into shambles.

They recruited the shit out of Palm Beach too....nearly as much talent in that county as the other two. Cannot forget Palm Beach.

Miami is a small private school for rich kids that has always stuck up it's nose at the athletes in the football program, way before Donna Shalala- who hasn't worked there in almost a decade btw. Don't kid yourself, they make massive exceptions still to get kids into the school that would never in a million years otherwise be admitted if they weren't insanely good at football.
Coker did not, and maybe that's why he failed? I'll always remember this one:

Field reporter lady: Coach, what is it like to recruit in a state like Florida?

Coach: We only recruit the State of Miami.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 09:52:13 AM
Coker did not, and maybe that's why he failed? I'll always remember this one:

Field reporter lady: Coach, what is it like to recruit in a state like Florida?

Coach: We only recruit the State of Miami.
dude was talking about basically recruiting only South Florida, of which Palm Beach county is in - which is basically all that Howard Schnellenberger, Jimmy Johnson, Dennis Erickson, and Butch Davis did. Most of their depth chart and almost all of their star players were from 3 counties in Florida...
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 10:06:47 AM
Of the three, which one is the strongest? I always thought it was Broward.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2023, 10:11:37 AM
the one where they catch rabbits in the grass
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 10:22:52 AM
Of the three, which one is the strongest? I always thought it was Broward.
Miami-Dade county, it has the largest population of the three and has the largest population of any county in Florida. Broward and Palm Beach aren't far behind though, they are the #2 and #3 counties in terms of population in the state. Those two counties have the expensive private schools like St Thomas Aquinas in Ft Lauderdale, Chaminade-Madonna in Hollywood, or American Heritage in Delray Beach that go out recruit all the top talent in South Florida and give them scholarships. Miami-Dade is basically all straight up public schools churning out that talent- which is insane.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 10:24:02 AM
the one where they catch rabbits in the grass
that's in Belle Glade and Pahokee, both in Palm Beach county waaaaay out west in the boondocks near Lake Okochobee in the middle of f'n nowhere.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 10:29:04 AM
that's in Belle Glade and Pahokee, both in Palm Beach county waaaaay out west in the boondocks near Lake Okochobee in the middle of f'n nowhere.
We drive that when we go see our friends over in Palm Beach. It's an... interesting area... that we don't make any stops in.

How's the football in Tampa? I haven't been here long enough to follow.

Football around here is better than the football was in the NW Chicago burbs.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 10:42:28 AM
I'd guess they are one elite coach away from being relevant again.  The kind that grows on trees ...
they just need someone that will identify and keep the cream of the crop at home. like they used to. nowadays they lose everyone they really want to Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, etc.. 

They probably win at least 1 national title with you or me coaching if they keep just these 10 players in their backyard home from the 2014 - 2017 classes (4 full cycles- a full roster for a coach)

QB - Lamar Jackson (Boynton Beach, FL) - 1st rd pick, Heisman trophy winner, NFL MVP 
RB - Dalvin Cook (Miami, FL) - 2nd rd pick 
RB - Sony Michel (Plantation, FL) - 1st rd pick 
WR- Jerry Jeudy (Deerfield Beach, FL) - 1st rd pick 
WR - Calvin Ridley (Pompano Beach, FL) - 1st rd pick 
LB - Devin Bush (Pembroke Pines, FL) - 1st rd pick
LB - Josh Uche (Miami, FL) - 2nd rd pick
CB - Trayvon Mullen (Pompano Beach, FL) - 2nd rd pick 
EDGE - Nick Bosa, (Fort Lauderdale, FL) - 1st rd pick, NFL DPOY
EDGE - Brian Burns (Delray Beach, FL) - 1st rd pick

Miami offered all those guys. Got none of them. That's eight 1st rd picks and two 2nd rd picks. They tried to get Lamar to play another position, he said no thanks. Imagine that. Bad decision. Good luck stopping that backfield with that QB and RB duo, can't double both those #1 WRs, that serious speed at LB, you don't have a prayer blocking that edge rush duo.

You can do that with basically any 4 full classes with guys just from their backyard in Miami, Broward, and Palm Beach and you'll have 10+ 1st or 2nd rd picks that Miami missed out on in their own backyard. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 01, 2023, 10:46:17 AM
We drive that when we go see our friends over in Palm Beach. It's an... interesting area... that we don't make any stops in.

How's the football in Tampa? I haven't been here long enough to follow.

Football around here is better than the football was in the NW Chicago burbs.
I've lived in Florida 20+ years and I've never been to Tampa. Couldn't tell you much about it. I don't really leave South Florida.

Tampa area has IMG Academy of course, but they recruit players from all over the country. 

I'm sure there are great football players all over the state in Tampa, Panhandle, Jax, and Orlando. But there is nothing like the insane concentration of elite HS football talent in South Florida anywhere else in the state, maybe even in the entire country.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 04, 2023, 10:59:42 PM
This is the simple truth. 

The NC will be won 9 out of 10 years by an SEC team. In the years that it is not won by an SEC team, there are only a handful of teams that can win. FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio St, or Michigan. 

The only SEC teams that can win are Bama, UGA, Florida, LSU, or Auburn, and now OU and Texas. 

12 teams will win 96% of all future CFB national championships. 

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 04, 2023, 11:11:54 PM
This is the simple truth.

The NC will be won 9 out of 10 years by an SEC team. In the years that it is not won by an SEC team, there are only a handful of teams that can win. FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio St, or Michigan.

The only SEC teams that can win are Bama, UGA, Florida, LSU, or Auburn, and now OU and Texas.

12 teams will win 96% of all future CFB national championships.
Auburn isn't winning sh*t imo. Auburn got lucccccky as hell Cam Newton liked stealing laptops and his dad needed $250,000. It was a one-off fluke that just isn't going to happen again anytime soon. That team was so mid and Cam Newton was so awesome he literally carried it on his back all by himself to a title.

OU's day might've come and gone, they are going to get run through in the SEC. Won't be able to keep up with the Jonses imo. Bama was in the doldrums for 25+ years until they landed the GOAT. It's not a given they'll win forever without him. It's a small state with a small population that doesn't produce enough talent to sustain two major in-state SEC programs- Bama and Auburn.

UGA, Florida, Texas, and LSU will always have insane in-state recruiting advantages. Doesn't mean they'll always win- but whenever they have the right coach in place they're pretty much guarantee to be in it.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 01:41:37 AM
This is the simple truth.

The NC will be won 9 out of 10 years by an SEC team. In the years that it is not won by an SEC team, there are only a handful of teams that can win. FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio St, or Michigan.

The only SEC teams that can win are Bama, UGA, Florida, LSU, or Auburn, and now OU and Texas.

12 teams will win 96% of all future CFB national championships.


It'll be like the 70s when only bluebloods mattered.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 01:46:22 AM
I've lived in Florida 20+ years and I've never been to Tampa. Couldn't tell you much about it. I don't really leave South Florida.

Tampa area has IMG Academy of course, but they recruit players from all over the country.

I'm sure there are great football players all over the state in Tampa, Panhandle, Jax, and Orlando. But there is nothing like the insane concentration of elite HS football talent in South Florida anywhere else in the state, maybe even in the entire country.
I feel like Tampa-area HS football has been up-and-down the last 25 years, but don't quote me on that.  The 'name' programs, in no particular order are:
IMG (duh)
Lakeland
Tampa Catholic
Seffner Armwood
Tampa Plant
Tampa Jesuit
Bradenton Manatee
Sarasota Riverview
.
Idk who's been good lately, but those have been annual state title participants/threats.  Some REALLY good talent has come out of Armwood, Manatee, and Riverview.





Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 06:56:22 AM
Auburn isn't winning sh*t imo. Auburn got lucccccky as hell Cam Newton liked stealing laptops and his dad needed $250,000. It was a one-off fluke that just isn't going to happen again anytime soon. That team was so mid and Cam Newton was so awesome he literally carried it on his back all by himself to a title.

OU's day might've come and gone, they are going to get run through in the SEC. Won't be able to keep up with the Jonses imo. Bama was in the doldrums for 25+ years until they landed the GOAT. It's not a given they'll win forever without him. It's a small state with a small population that doesn't produce enough talent to sustain two major in-state SEC programs- Bama and Auburn.

UGA, Florida, Texas, and LSU will always have insane in-state recruiting advantages. Doesn't mean they'll always win- but whenever they have the right coach in place they're pretty much guarantee to be in it.
The reason I listed Auburn is because they’ve won one this century and played for a second. I would maybe list Oregon in there since they’ve played for the title like 2-3 times, but with this PAC thing collapsing I’m keeping them off my list. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 05, 2023, 07:25:06 AM
the Trojans?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 07:30:01 AM
the Trojans?
They are gonna come into the Big Ten and run roughshod over the conference.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 05, 2023, 10:35:47 AM
cutting scholarships to about 75
My knee jerk reaction when I read this was to dismiss it in part because, in your post, it was lumped in with a bunch of unrealistic stuff. I also agree with @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's post that you'd probably need roster rather than scholarship limits because scholarships are more-or-less irrelevant in the NIL era.

That said, @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's recent post comparing the present to the 70's made me think back to this.

I think you two might be onto something. In the 70's the Buckeyes and Wolverines flat dominated the Big Ten. This was the "Big Two, Little Eight" era:
Most people here probably already knew the above but what you may not have known is something that @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's comment refers to. Roughly the same thing happened across the sport, it wasn't limited to the Midwest. In the 1970's the helmets dominated. Scholarship limits curtailed that so maybe we can use scholarship/roster limits to curtail that level of dominance again.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 05, 2023, 10:38:31 AM
They are gonna come into the Big Ten and run roughshod over the conference.
just like Penn State did right :P

USC better buy a new DC and better defensive players with NIL money before they start the 2024 season in the B1G
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 10:41:32 AM
just like Penn State did right :P

USC better buy a new DC and better defensive players with NIL money before they start the 2024 season in the B1G
And Nebraska. :)


USC should buy Jim Leonhard. Not a great recruiter, but USC has plenty of those (and $$$).
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 05, 2023, 01:04:25 PM
And Nebraska. :)


USC should buy Jim Leonhard. Not a great recruiter, but USC has plenty of those (and $$$).
USC has a built-in recruiting advantage, too. You don't spend half the school year in frigid temps and ll the coeds on campus have put on their winter coat of fat to stay warm and are dressed for a blizzard every day. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 01:45:10 PM
USC has a built-in recruiting advantage, too. 
Yes, yes they do.


(https://i.imgur.com/AikT43X.png)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 02:40:52 PM
My knee jerk reaction when I read this was to dismiss it in part because, in your post, it was lumped in with a bunch of unrealistic stuff. I also agree with @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's post that you'd probably need roster rather than scholarship limits because scholarships are more-or-less irrelevant in the NIL era.

That said, @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's recent post comparing the present to the 70's made me think back to this.

I think you two might be onto something. In the 70's the Buckeyes and Wolverines flat dominated the Big Ten. This was the "Big Two, Little Eight" era:
  • From 1968 through 1980 (seasons) the Big Ten rep to the RoseBowl was either Ohio State or Michigan EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
  • From 1970-1979 Michigan lost more league games to Ohio State (5) than they did to the other eight teams in the league combined (4, 2 to PU and 1 each to MN and MSU).
  • Similarly over the same decade the Buckeyes lost only one less league game to Michigan (4) than they did to the other eight teams in the league combined (5, 3 to MSU, 1 each to PU and NU).
Most people here probably already knew the above but what you may not have known is something that @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's comment refers to. Roughly the same thing happened across the sport, it wasn't limited to the Midwest. In the 1970's the helmets dominated. Scholarship limits curtailed that so maybe we can use scholarship/roster limits to curtail that level of dominance again.
Well, I didn't intend to say scholarships should be limited to 75, rather total players on the team should be limited.  I don't know what that number should be.  55?  65? 75?  It's kind of complicated really, but the goal should be to limit the talent that goes to the same 10 schools.  Would it really work?  Transfer portal complicates things for sure.  

70's were way before my time, I had zero interest in CFB until my freshman year in 1996.  Forgive me, but my impression is that the Big 10 was always dominated by OSU and Michigan.  I know Minnesota was a force before then, but other than the occasional Wisconsin or Michigan State it was all OSU and Michigan.  Same thing with Big 8 and OU/Nebraska.  

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 05, 2023, 03:01:31 PM

Forgive me, but my impression is that the Big 10 was always dominated by OSU and Michigan.  I know Minnesota was a force before then, but other than the occasional Wisconsin or Michigan State it was all OSU and Michigan.  Same thing with Big 8 and OU/Nebraska.
No, not really. This isn't an exact parallel with being the best due to tiebreakers, the no-repeat rule, and the longest loser tiebreaker but the Big Ten/Pac Ten Rose Bowl agreement started just after WWII for the 1946 season. In the 22 seasons from 1946-1967 here we're the Big Ten's Rose Bowl representatives (going by game year)
So in 22 years all 10 teams went with eight (all but UW and IU) winning at least once. Ohio State and Michigan had three appearances each which was tied for the lead but it wasn't a dominating lead as IL, MSU, and UW also had three appearances each.


The "Big Two / Little Eight" thing basically started with 1968.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 03:20:16 PM
No, not really. This isn't an exact parallel with being the best due to tiebreakers, the no-repeat rule, and the longest loser tiebreaker but the Big Ten/Pac Ten Rose Bowl agreement started just after WWII for the 1946 season. In the 22 seasons from 1946-1967 here we're the Big Ten's Rose Bowl representatives (going by game year)
  • 3 Illinois, 3-0, 47, 52, 64
  • 3 Michigan, 3-0, 48, 51, 65
  • 3 Ohio State, 3-0, 50, 55, 58
  • 3 Michigan State, 2-1, 54, 56, 66
  • 3 Wisconsin, 0-3, 53, 60, 63
  • 2 Iowa, 2-0, 57, 59
  • 2 Minnesota, 1-1, 60, 61
  • 1 Northwestern, 1-0, 49
  • 1 Purdue, 1-0, 67
  • 1 Indiana, 0-1, 68
So in 22 years all 10 teams went with eight (all but UW and IU) winning at least once. Ohio State and Michigan had three appearances each which was tied for the lead but it wasn't a dominating lead as IL, MSU, and UW also had three appearances each.


The "Big Two / Little Eight" thing basically started with 1968.
Yeah, but I'm not really talking about that far back. I'm more or less referring to the period after the 70's, even really the 80's and into the 90's.  And I'm only speaking about my own observations, mainly from watching college football shows and interacting with fans on these boards.  And, I might add really, I didn't realize the Rose bowl was such a big deal to Big 10 fans.  I knew it was considered an important bowl game, but never really considered the importance WRT conference champions like you show in your list.  Maybe because I didn't follow CFB until bowl season was already diluted and there was just so many damn bowl games that none seemed really important.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 05, 2023, 03:22:49 PM
Rose Bowl was like all the B1G teams cared about until the BCS and CCG upset that apple cart a little bit and then the playoff basically destroyed the apple cart.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 03:24:01 PM
Yeah, but I'm not really talking about that far back. I'm more or less referring to the period after the 70's, even really the 80's and into the 90's.  And I'm only speaking about my own observations, mainly from watching college football shows and interacting with fans on these boards.  And, I might add really, I didn't realize the Rose bowl was such a big deal to Big 10 fans.  I knew it was considered an important bowl game, but never really considered the importance WRT conference champions like you show in your list.  Maybe because I didn't follow CFB until bowl season was already diluted and there was just so many damn bowl games that none seemed really important. 

Up until 1998, the Rose Bowl was the ultimate prize and priority for the Big Ten coaches, players and fans - win or lose. The BCS changed some things, but the Rose was still very important. Then they playoff happened. Less important. Now there is no PAC-? and so it is meaningless to most everyone.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 03:34:56 PM
Also, it's known that a lot of the schools de-emphasized athletics - mine included. In fact, they were very close to pulling a UChicago and getting out of the Big Ten. NU and IL were also close to that.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 05, 2023, 03:36:43 PM
No, not really. This isn't an exact parallel with being the best due to tiebreakers, the no-repeat rule, and the longest loser tiebreaker but the Big Ten/Pac Ten Rose Bowl agreement started just after WWII for the 1946 season. In the 22 seasons from 1946-1967 here we're the Big Ten's Rose Bowl representatives (going by game year)
  • 3 Illinois, 3-0, 47, 52, 64
  • 3 Michigan, 3-0, 48, 51, 65
  • 3 Ohio State, 3-0, 50, 55, 58
  • 3 Michigan State, 2-1, 54, 56, 66
  • 3 Wisconsin, 0-3, 53, 60, 63
  • 2 Iowa, 2-0, 57, 59
  • 2 Minnesota, 1-1, 60, 61
  • 1 Northwestern, 1-0, 49
  • 1 Purdue, 1-0, 67
  • 1 Indiana, 0-1, 68
So in 22 years all 10 teams went with eight (all but UW and IU) winning at least once. Ohio State and Michigan had three appearances each which was tied for the lead but it wasn't a dominating lead as IL, MSU, and UW also had three appearances each.


The "Big Two / Little Eight" thing basically started with 1968.
If you look at it based on league titles (includes co-championships and does NOT include RB appearances without a league title), it looks a little more slanted toward tOSU/M but still not at the level that most people would describe as "domination" prior to 1968.  Here are league titles from 1946-1967:


Ohio State and Michigan each "only" had five league titles in the 22 years from 1946-1967 but it didn't take them long to match that starting in 1968:

When MSU split a title with Michigan in 1978 (MSU lost the tiebreaker) that was the first time since 1967 that any team not named tOSU or Michigan had won even a  share of a league title.  

When Illinois won an outright title in 1983 it was the first time since 1967 that neither Michigan nor Ohio State had won at least a share of the league.  

From 1968 through 1986 Ohio State had 13 titles, Michigan had 11, and the entire rest of the league combined had four.  

Look at it one more way:
In the 1950's and 1960's the Big Ten had THREE stretches of three consecutive years in which neither tOSU nor Michigan won a league title:
1951-1953:
1958-1960:

1965-1967:
Since then that has only happened once, the four years from 2010-2013 but that is only because tOSU had to vacate their co-championship from 2010 and was ineligible for the CG in 2012 for the same infraction.  

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 05, 2023, 03:42:28 PM
Up until 1998, the Rose Bowl was the ultimate prize and priority for the Big Ten coaches, players and fans - win or lose. The BCS changed some things, but the Rose was still very important. Then they playoff happened. Less important. Now there is no PAC-? and so it is meaningless to most everyone.
I know YOU know this, but I'll add mostly for @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) that prior to the mid-1970's the Big Ten had a rule that the ONLY bowl a league team could go to was the Rose Bowl so even the VERY good non-champions from the league simply did NOT bowl.  Additionally, until around the same time they had a "no repeat" rule so some of our champions didn't even go to a bowl.  Michigan, for example, won an NC in 1948 but DID NOT go to the 1949 Rose Bowl because they had gone to the 1948 Rose Bowl after winning the 1947 league title so they were ineligible based on the "no repeat" rule and Northwestern went in their place.  

The Rose Bowl was HUMONGOUS for us in part because for a LONG time it was the ONLY bowl for a Big Ten team.  

On top of that, the Big Ten dominated the Rose Bowl in the early years of the Big Ten / Pac Ten agreement and frequently the winner was the national Champion.  Looking, for example, at Woody, his first three Rose Bowls were each wins and each of the three resulted in an NC for the Buckeyes.  Back then when Ohio State fans said that the goals were to 1) Beat Michigan, 2) win the Big Ten, 3) win the Rose Bowl, and 4) win the National Championship those four things were more-or-less just different ways of saying the same thing.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 04:23:27 PM
I know YOU know this, but I'll add mostly for @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) that prior to the mid-1970's the Big Ten had a rule that the ONLY bowl a league team could go to was the Rose Bowl so even the VERY good non-champions from the league simply did NOT bowl.  Additionally, until around the same time they had a "no repeat" rule so some of our champions didn't even go to a bowl.  Michigan, for example, won an NC in 1948 but DID NOT go to the 1949 Rose Bowl because they had gone to the 1948 Rose Bowl after winning the 1947 league title so they were ineligible based on the "no repeat" rule and Northwestern went in their place. 

The Rose Bowl was HUMONGOUS for us in part because for a LONG time it was the ONLY bowl for a Big Ten team. 

On top of that, the Big Ten dominated the Rose Bowl in the early years of the Big Ten / Pac Ten agreement and frequently the winner was the national Champion.  Looking, for example, at Woody, his first three Rose Bowls were each wins and each of the three resulted in an NC for the Buckeyes.  Back then when Ohio State fans said that the goals were to 1) Beat Michigan, 2) win the Big Ten, 3) win the Rose Bowl, and 4) win the National Championship those four things were more-or-less just different ways of saying the same thing. 
I kinda knew this vaguely, but thanks for the explanation.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 04:29:43 PM
The B1G did itself no favors in football for a LONG time.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 06:59:19 PM
Rose Bowl was like all the B1G teams cared about until the BCS and CCG upset that apple cart a little bit and then the playoff basically destroyed the apple cart.
Rose Bowl > Super Bowl until like yesterday, if B1G fans are to be believed.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on September 05, 2023, 07:10:16 PM
Rose Bowl > Super Bowl until like yesterday, if B1G fans are to be believed.
No 9-7 team ever won a Rose Bowl.

But yeah, my parents hosted Rose Bowl parties every year.  I don't think I went to a NYE party or Super Bowl party til HS, but there were NYD parties for the Rose Bowl.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 07:14:10 PM
The 70s:
Big Ten:  UM and/or OSU all 10 years, with MSU a share 1 season
SEC:  Bama 8 out of 10 years
SWC:  Texas 6, with UH and Ark getting a pair each
Big 8:  UNL or OU all 10 years, shared with others in '76
PAC-8:  USC 6, Stanford 2
.
The whole decade was an annual blueblood convention in the top 10 each year.  Add to that ND being a top 15 team in 8 of the 10 years, with 2 NCs.....and yeah.  
.
The problem with what may transpire now is that all those big-boy programs separate, but don't have the have-nots to fatten up on.  They'll all feast on each other and it will create a new bell curve, with some pretty sexy programs on the wrong end.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 05, 2023, 07:14:15 PM
Rose Bowl > Super Bowl until like yesterday, if B1G fans are to be believed.
well I mean before BCS and CCGs and expansion and playoffs there was no real way of crowning a national title.....I mean look at Nebraska and Michigan in '97, they didn't get to play. The natty was out of your control, even if you ran the table back then. So the only thing that was actually obtainable within your own control for the B1G teams was the Rose Bowl. And before the divisions/CCG's there was no way for Northwestern or Iowa or Purdue to win a West side of the conference and then get smoked in the CCG by Michigan or Ohio State in the East side of the conference- those teams could still win a share and claim a B1G title and sneak a Rose Bowl trip in there.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 07:14:36 PM
No 9-7 team ever won a Rose Bowl.

Give it time.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 05, 2023, 07:16:26 PM
Give it time.
oh it'll happen when they expand this thing to 16 teams. don't know when it'll happen, but it will. there will be a fluke that gets hot at the right time and gets favorable matchups and goes all the way with it. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 07:17:09 PM
well I mean before BCS and CCGs and expansion and playoffs there was no real way of crowning a national title.....I mean look at Nebraska and Michigan in '97, they didn't get to play. The natty was out of your control, even if you ran the table back then. So the only thing that was actually obtainable within your own control for the B1G teams was the Rose Bowl. And before the divisions/CCG's there was no way for Northwestern or Iowa or Purdue to win a West side of the conference and then get smoked in the CCG by Michigan or Ohio State in the East side of the conference.
I get it, but it was kinda dumb.....speaking about the RB in hushed tones, marveling at the San Gabriels and getting turned on by a parade with one breath and then bitching about having to play in the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl as an away game in the next breath.
Maybe it's 2 diff fanbases, but the dichotomy is/was vast.  Maybe Big 8 teams needed an attitude adjustment.  Snorting coke off a dance club toilet seat doesn't rival the Tournament of Roses parade?!?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 05, 2023, 07:20:47 PM
I get it, but it was kinda dumb.....speaking about the RB in hushed tones, marveling at the San Gabriels and getting turned on by a parade with one breath and then bitching about having to play in the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl as an away game in the next breath.
Maybe it's 2 diff fanbases, but the dichotomy is/was vast.
hey i'd much rather go to Miami or New Orleans for a weekend trip than to Pasadena. don't have to sell me on that. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 10:40:31 PM
hey i'd much rather go to Miami or New Orleans for a weekend trip than to Pasadena. don't have to sell me on that.
Then you are not a true B1G fan.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 10:44:43 PM
The 70s:
Big Ten:  UM and/or OSU all 10 years, with MSU a share 1 season
SEC:  Bama 8 out of 10 years
SWC:  Texas 6, with UH and Ark getting a pair each
Big 8:  UNL or OU all 10 years, shared with others in '76
PAC-8:  USC 6, Stanford 2
.
The whole decade was an annual blueblood convention in the top 10 each year.  Add to that ND being a top 15 team in 8 of the 10 years, with 2 NCs.....and yeah. 
.
The problem with what may transpire now is that all those big-boy programs separate, but don't have the have-nots to fatten up on.  They'll all feast on each other and it will create a new bell curve, with some pretty sexy programs on the wrong end.
I could have sworn A&M won the SWC in ‘75. In fact many old timers decry that we were ranked #1, and they delayed our game at Arky for TV. We lost big.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2023, 11:51:46 PM
Those numbers I listed just happen to add up to 10.  Sorry, they include shared titles, of which A&M had in '75.  3-way tie with Arky and UT.
.
75 and 76 A&M were great teams.  Woodard was a freakin' beast.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 06, 2023, 12:01:15 AM
I get it, but it was kinda dumb.....speaking about the RB in hushed tones, marveling at the San Gabriels and getting turned on by a parade with one breath and then bitching about having to play in the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl as an away game in the next breath.
Maybe it's 2 diff fanbases, but the dichotomy is/was vast.  Maybe Big 8 teams needed an attitude adjustment.  Snorting coke off a dance club toilet seat doesn't rival the Tournament of Roses parade?!?
2 different fan bases but the Big Ten fans bitched about playing an away game vs the PAC in Pasadena

not sure there was much talk about the better parade
mostly about the better matchup on the gridiron
the Cocaines playing on their home field were mostly responsible for the toilet seat issues
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2023, 07:54:05 AM
Then you are not a true B1G fan.
We all know it's over. Time to find something new to pick about here.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 06, 2023, 10:40:46 AM
The 70s:
Big Ten:  UM and/or OSU all 10 years, with MSU a share 1 season
SEC:  Bama 8 out of 10 years
SWC:  Texas 6, with UH and Ark getting a pair each
Big 8:  UNL or OU all 10 years, shared with others in '76
PAC-8:  USC 6, Stanford 2.

The whole decade was an annual blueblood convention in the top 10 each year.  Add to that ND being a top 15 team in 8 of the 10 years, with 2 NCs.....and yeah. 
Thank you for adding the other conferences.  I had already listed the Big Ten and stated that the others were similar but didn't take the time to get the data.  

What I think has changed here is that with the advent of a four (soon-to-be 12) team playoff, the non-helmets no longer even have the ability to impact the race.  Looking at the 1970's:
1970:
Nebraska won at 11-0-1 (tie was at USC).  Notre Dame, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, and Michigan each finished with one loss so they would likely have won the NC but for that loss:
Auburn and Stanford are really the only non-helmets there but their wins over Tennessee and Ohio State did prevent the Volunteers and Buckeyes from winning the NC.  

1971:
Nebraska won it at 13-0.  Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn State, Michigan, and Georgia each finished with one loss so they at least might have shared the title but for that loss:
So again, Auburn and Stanford each had NC altering wins.  BTW, Nebraska was a monster that year they beat the final #2, #3, and #4.  

1972:
USC won it at 12-0.  Oklahoma, Texas, and Michigan each finished with one loss so they at least might have shared the title but for that loss:
Colorado had a NC altering win.  

1973:
Notre Dame won it at 11-0.  Ohio State and Michigan both finished 10-0-1 after tying each other.  Alabama (ND) finished with one loss.  

1974:
Oklahoma won it at 11-0.  USC finished 10-1-1.  Michigan and Alabama both finished with one loss so they at least might have shared the title but for that loss:
1975:
Oklahoma won it at 11-1 after beating Michigan in the Orange Bowl.  Note to @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) , this was Michigan's first ever bowl game other than the Rose Bowl.  Oklahoma's loss was to a mediocre Kansas team and very nearly cost them the NC.  They went into the bowls #3 behind tOSU and aTm but luckily for them the Buckeyes and Aggies lost the Rose and Liberty Bowls.  Alabama finished with only one loss, to Missouri.  

This season may be the best example of what could happen.  Wins by Kansas (OU), Mizzou (Bama) and UCLA (tOSU) had a humongous impact on the NC race.  

As a Buckeye fan I feel obligated to point out that Ohio State's loss to (final) #5 UCLA in SoCal after having beaten UCLA earlier in the season was MUCH better than Oklahoma's loss to a Kansas team that finished 7-5 and unranked or Bama's loss to a Mizzou team that finished 6-5 and unranked.  This was Woody's last great team and his last win over Michigan.  It has long been speculated that IF he had won the NC he'd have retired on top.  

1976:
Pitt won it at 12-0.  USC finished with only one loss, to Mizzou.  Thus, for the second consecutive year Mizzou was a mediocre team but managed to pull of a huge upset win that had a major impact on the NC race.  

1977:
Notre Dame won it at 11-1.  Bama, Arkansas, Texas, Penn State, and Kentucky each finished with one loss.  
Kentucky and Baylor were both non-helmets who had NC altering wins.  Also, Notre Dame's loss was an early season loss to a bad Ole Miss team in Jackson, Mississippi so you can add the Rebels to the list of non-helmets who impacted the race.  Notre Dame went into the bowls at #5 but they took out #1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl and meanwhile #2 OU lost to Arkansas (Orange) and #4 Michigan lost to Washington (Rose).  #3 Bama beat #9 tOSU (Sugar) in Ohio State's first non-Rose Bowl but that wasn't enough to keep them ahead of the Irish who knocked off #1.  

1978:
Alabama won it at 11-1 after beating prior #1 PSU (Sugar).  USC, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Clemson each finished with one loss:
ASU had an NC altering win.  

1979:
Alabama won it at 12-0.  USC finished second at 11-0-1.  Oklahoma, Ohio State, Houston, Florida State, and Pitt each finished with one loss.  
Stanford and North Carolina were non-helmets but they had NC altering wins.  

It didn't happen often but it DID happen.  A non-helmet *COULD* impact that NC race and even the eventual winner.  Non-helmet fans like @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's TxTech friend, @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) rooted for teams that could and sometimes did have a MAJOR impact on the NC race.  For those three schools:
Texas Tech:
youtube.com/watch?v=TESavSr2Cew
Michael Crabtree's TD had a HUMONGOUS impact on the NC race.  TxTech wasn't really all that good.  They got absolutely smoked in Norman and drilled in the Cotton Bowl by an SEC also-ran but on one night at home against the Longhorns they hit the dream.  Ultimately Texas, Oklahoma, and TxTech tied for the B12-S Championship and Oklahoma won that on a controversial tiebreaker which sent the Sooners to an easy win over Mizzou in the B12CG and on to the BCSNCG where they lost to Florida thus giving the Gators the 2008 NC.  If TxTech hadn't upset the Longhorns, the Longhorns would have beaten the Tigers and played the Gators and who knows, they might have won.  

Purdue:
The 2018 Boilermakers weren't very good.  They finished below .500 but in late October they showed up for a home game against the Buckeyes and looked like a powerhouse.  That Buckeye squad finished just outside of the CFP and won a consolation Rose Bowl to finish 13-1.  If Purdue hadn't upset the Buckeyes, the Buckeyes would have obviously been in the CFP at 13-0 and who knows, they might have won.  

Michigan State:
The 2015 Spartans probably weren't as good as their 12-2 final record.  I say that because both losses were bad and because they had multiple close wins over bad and mediocre teams.  The Nebraska loss was bad because Nebraska was bad (6-7) while the Alabama loss was bad because it was a 38-0 shutout.  Michigan state also beat Purdue (2-10), Rutgers (4-8), Michigan (10-3), Ohio State (12-1), and Iowa (12-2) by one score each.  That said, on a cold November afternoon in Columbus they stymied the vaunted Ohio State offense.  That Ohio State team averaged 36 ppg but only put up 14 against the Spartans.  If Michigan State hadn't upset the Buckeyes, the Buckeyes would have gone to Indy to take out the Hawkeyes then on to the CFP and who knows, they might have won.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 06, 2023, 10:57:43 AM
Thank you for adding the other conferences.  I had already listed the Big Ten and stated that the others were similar but didn't take the time to get the data. 

What I think has changed here is that with the advent of a four (soon-to-be 12) team playoff, the non-helmets no longer even have the ability to impact the race.  Looking at the 1970's:
1970:
Nebraska won at 11-0-1 (tie was at USC).  Notre Dame, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, and Michigan each finished with one loss so they would likely have won the NC but for that loss:
  • Notre Dame's loss was to USC
  • Texas' loss was to Notre Dame
  • Tennessee's loss was to Auburn
  • Ohio State's loss was to Stanford
  • Michigan's loss was to Ohio State
Auburn and Stanford are really the only non-helmets there but their wins over Tennessee and Ohio State did prevent the Volunteers and Buckeyes from winning the NC. 


Nice summary, just one minor correction.  In 1970, Texas actually did win the coaches' poll national championship, because at the time the coaches' poll was still awarding its MNC before the bowl games. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2023, 11:30:12 AM
I know this might be difficult for a helmet fan to understand... But no, we plebes don't define our seasons solely based upon the ability to ruin yours. Even though my team has proudly worn the "Spoilermakers" moniker from time to time, we also want something to play for beyond spoiling your fun. 

In the old setup, a school like Purdue had a chance at a conference championship, and a chance at a trip to a Rose Bowl that meant something. A Rose Bowl that, while for us wouldn't have NC implications, would be the sort of game that a national audience tuned in to simply because it was the Rose Bowl, the granddaddy of them all. It was a destination, one that any team in the B1G was proud to make it to. 

The difference now is that with an 18-team conference and CCG, it's unlikely a team like Purdue will ever even appear in a CCG much less have a chance to win it. And now, even if Purdue got into some sort of crazy scenario where they had a dream season, appeared in the CFP, and their game was held at the Rose Bowl, it is no longer a destination. It's merely a stepping stone (where they'd likely get eliminated of course) with zero standalone value as a game. It's both almost unattainable in the new system, but at the same time meaningless for a team like Purdue if they actually do attain it. 

In 2018 we enjoyed improbably beating a really good team, under the lights, with much of the country watching and collectively asking themselves "WTF is happening???" Yeah, it derailed your CFP hopes that year, but it was OUR win that we cheered, not YOUR loss. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2023, 11:31:03 AM
(On that front, I'll bet a lot of the nation cheered your loss, especially fans of TTUN, but Purdue fans cheered our win more.)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 06, 2023, 11:34:55 AM
Oh look everybody, a Purdue fan just had a take.

How cute!

Look at the cute little Boilermaker.  Do you think he'll bark when we say, "Speak!"?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 06, 2023, 11:48:42 AM
Thank you for adding the other conferences.  I had already listed the Big Ten and stated that the others were similar but didn't take the time to get the data. 

What I think has changed here is that with the advent of a four (soon-to-be 12) team playoff, the non-helmets no longer even have the ability to impact the race.  Looking at the 1970's:
1970:
Nebraska won at 11-0-1 (tie was at USC).  Notre Dame, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, and Michigan each finished with one loss so they would likely have won the NC but for that loss:
  • Notre Dame's loss was to USC
  • Texas' loss was to Notre Dame
  • Tennessee's loss was to Auburn
  • Ohio State's loss was to Stanford
  • Michigan's loss was to Ohio State
Auburn and Stanford are really the only non-helmets there but their wins over Tennessee and Ohio State did prevent the Volunteers and Buckeyes from winning the NC. 

1971:
Nebraska won it at 13-0.  Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn State, Michigan, and Georgia each finished with one loss so they at least might have shared the title but for that loss:
  • Oklahoma's loss was to Nebraska
  • Alabama's loss was to Nebraska
  • Penn State's loss was to Tennessee
  • Michigan's loss was to Stanford
  • Georgia's loss was to Auburn
So again, Auburn and Stanford each had NC altering wins.  BTW, Nebraska was a monster that year they beat the final #2, #3, and #4. 

1972:
USC won it at 12-0.  Oklahoma, Texas, and Michigan each finished with one loss so they at least might have shared the title but for that loss:
  • Oklahoma's loss was to Colorado
  • Texas' loss was to Oklahoma
  • Michigan's loss was to Ohio State
Colorado had a NC altering win. 

1973:
Notre Dame won it at 11-0.  Ohio State and Michigan both finished 10-0-1 after tying each other.  Alabama (ND) finished with one loss. 

1974:
Oklahoma won it at 11-0.  USC finished 10-1-1.  Michigan and Alabama both finished with one loss so they at least might have shared the title but for that loss:
  • Michigan's loss was to Ohio State
  • Alabama's loss was to Notre Dame
1975:
Oklahoma won it at 11-1 after beating Michigan in the Orange Bowl.  Note to @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) , this was Michigan's first ever bowl game other than the Rose Bowl.  Oklahoma's loss was to a mediocre Kansas team and very nearly cost them the NC.  They went into the bowls #3 behind tOSU and aTm but luckily for them the Buckeyes and Aggies lost the Rose and Liberty Bowls.  Alabama finished with only one loss, to Missouri. 

This season may be the best example of what could happen.  Wins by Kansas (OU), Mizzou (Bama) and UCLA (tOSU) had a humongous impact on the NC race. 

As a Buckeye fan I feel obligated to point out that Ohio State's loss to (final) #5 UCLA in SoCal after having beaten UCLA earlier in the season was MUCH better than Oklahoma's loss to a Kansas team that finished 7-5 and unranked or Bama's loss to a Mizzou team that finished 6-5 and unranked.  This was Woody's last great team and his last win over Michigan.  It has long been speculated that IF he had won the NC he'd have retired on top. 

1976:
Pitt won it at 12-0.  USC finished with only one loss, to Mizzou.  Thus, for the second consecutive year Mizzou was a mediocre team but managed to pull of a huge upset win that had a major impact on the NC race. 

1977:
Notre Dame won it at 11-1.  Bama, Arkansas, Texas, Penn State, and Kentucky each finished with one loss. 
  • Alabama's loss was to Nebraska
  • Arkansas' loss was to Texas
  • Texas' loss was to Notre Dame
  • Penn State's loss was to Kentucky
  • Kentucky's loss was to Baylor. 
Kentucky and Baylor were both non-helmets who had NC altering wins.  Also, Notre Dame's loss was an early season loss to a bad Ole Miss team in Jackson, Mississippi so you can add the Rebels to the list of non-helmets who impacted the race.  Notre Dame went into the bowls at #5 but they took out #1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl and meanwhile #2 OU lost to Arkansas (Orange) and #4 Michigan lost to Washington (Rose).  #3 Bama beat #9 tOSU (Sugar) in Ohio State's first non-Rose Bowl but that wasn't enough to keep them ahead of the Irish who knocked off #1. 

1978:
Alabama won it at 11-1 after beating prior #1 PSU (Sugar).  USC, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Clemson each finished with one loss:
  • USC's loss was to ASU in ASU's first year in the PAC10 which had been the PAC8 up through 1977
  • Oklahoma's loss was to Nebraska
  • Penn State's loss was to Bama
  • Clemson's loss was to Georgia
ASU had an NC altering win. 

1979:
Alabama won it at 12-0.  USC finished second at 11-0-1.  Oklahoma, Ohio State, Houston, Florida State, and Pitt each finished with one loss. 
  • USC's tie was with a .500 Stanford team. 
  • Oklahoma's loss was to Texas
  • Ohio State's loss was to USC
  • Houston's loss was to Texas
  • Florida State's loss was to Oklahoma
  • Pitt's loss was to North Carolina
Stanford and North Carolina were non-helmets but they had NC altering wins. 

It didn't happen often but it DID happen.  A non-helmet *COULD* impact that NC race and even the eventual winner.  Non-helmet fans like @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's TxTech friend, @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) rooted for teams that could and sometimes did have a MAJOR impact on the NC race.  For those three schools:
Texas Tech:
youtube.com/watch?v=TESavSr2Cew
Michael Crabtree's TD had a HUMONGOUS impact on the NC race.  TxTech wasn't really all that good.  They got absolutely smoked in Norman and drilled in the Cotton Bowl by an SEC also-ran but on one night at home against the Longhorns they hit the dream.  Ultimately Texas, Oklahoma, and TxTech tied for the B12-S Championship and Oklahoma won that on a controversial tiebreaker which sent the Sooners to an easy win over Mizzou in the B12CG and on to the BCSNCG where they lost to Florida thus giving the Gators the 2008 NC.  If TxTech hadn't upset the Longhorns, the Longhorns would have beaten the Tigers and played the Gators and who knows, they might have won. 

Purdue:
The 2018 Boilermakers weren't very good.  They finished below .500 but in late October they showed up for a home game against the Buckeyes and looked like a powerhouse.  That Buckeye squad finished just outside of the CFP and won a consolation Rose Bowl to finish 13-1.  If Purdue hadn't upset the Buckeyes, the Buckeyes would have obviously been in the CFP at 13-0 and who knows, they might have won. 

Michigan State:
The 2015 Spartans probably weren't as good as their 12-2 final record.  I say that because both losses were bad and because they had multiple close wins over bad and mediocre teams.  The Nebraska loss was bad because Nebraska was bad (6-7) while the Alabama loss was bad because it was a 38-0 shutout.  Michigan state also beat Purdue (2-10), Rutgers (4-8), Michigan (10-3), Ohio State (12-1), and Iowa (12-2) by one score each.  That said, on a cold November afternoon in Columbus they stymied the vaunted Ohio State offense.  That Ohio State team averaged 36 ppg but only put up 14 against the Spartans.  If Michigan State hadn't upset the Buckeyes, the Buckeyes would have gone to Indy to take out the Hawkeyes then on to the CFP and who knows, they might have won. 
You just posted a lot of data about how the non-helmet teams could impact the MNC, but under the new system the non-helmets actually can play for the title.  You know, #4-12, mostly consisting of non-helmet teams, many of whom will have 2-3 losses, sometimes close losses that could've went either way. 

I find that all of this drivel is mostly coming from the fans of the helmet teams.  I swear, the old system was like a boxing match where 90% of the matches are decided by judges, not a KO.  Nothing more than a beauty pageant where the helmet teams are always given the benefit of the doubt.  I don't like them but TCU played their way into the championship game over Michigan, if it was up to the playoff committee they would've never been given the chance.  In 1998 KSU was screwed over the chance to play for a title because they were a non-helmet team and they lost a close game to a really good A&M team, whereas OU was giftwrapped the chance to play in the 2003 CG after losing to KSU in that title game.  

Imagine how strange it would be for there to be two superbowl champions, or two world series champs.  

I'm always in favor of settling it on the field.  The best team wins.  One true champion, and if the helmets prevail then so be it.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 06, 2023, 12:08:09 PM
One more thing to add here.  Us non-helmet teams know that almost always there is nothing to play for.  We're not going to get into the system over a Bama, Ohio St, or USC unless everything goes absolutely perfectly.  We have to be undefeated, win by 2 TD every game, beat the pulp out of bad teams, and have a couple of extra special players on the roster for show.  So it's almost kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy when hardly no helmet teams make the big show because even helmet teams rarely have perfect seasons.  The 4 team playoff was nothing more than giving the other two helmets a chance most of the time.  

But with this new format almost everybody has a fair shot at making something happen.  Say a hot A&M team with a generational player at QB comes in late in the season on fire, but has an early loss to a good program before they got hot and one more loss to a good LSU team that could have went either way.  That team is playing for something at the end of the season.  Even the helmet teams will have something to play for if they're good but not great but perhaps they haven't fully developed by the end of the season.  

I cannot emphasize this enough.  Let them settle it on the field, you know like they do in every other sport.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2023, 12:09:54 PM
You just posted a lot of data about how the non-helmet teams could impact the MNC, but under the new system the non-helmets actually can play for the title.  You know, #4-12, mostly consisting of non-helmet teams, many of whom will have 2-3 losses, sometimes close losses that could've went either way. 
That is true. But teams 5-12 will have to win 4 consecutive games against the best of the best to win that title. 

Is it possible? Yes. But CFB doesn't have the same level of parity as the NFL where a 9-7 wild card team can go on a run and beat the 18-0 Patriots to win the Super Bowl. 

IMHO it's harder for a non-helmet to win the title in the new system than the old. 

And even so, as a fan of Purdue I have ruled out the title from my mental calculation anyway... All I want is the chance at winning the conference and facing the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl. The former is now almost assuredly unlikely with an 18-team conference and CCG, and the latter is now gone because the PAC is dead. 

Hence (amongst so many reasons) why CFB is now an afterthought in my life--something I might put on the TV as background if I'm bored Saturday and there's nothing else on, but not something that I'm ever upset to miss. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2023, 12:26:47 PM
And then there is this:

Mit Winter on X: "This article discusses the possibility of 50 college football teams joining a new league run by the NFL, Fox, and Disney. I think something like this is likely to happen. When a court or the NLRB declares that some college athletes are employees it will push things this way. https://t.co/n5F7tHnJZw" / X (twitter.com) (https://twitter.com/WinterSportsLaw/status/1699402735672496373?s=20)

(https://i.imgur.com/c5WSY5F.png)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 06, 2023, 12:33:14 PM
You just posted a lot of data about how the non-helmet teams could impact the MNC, but under the new system the non-helmets actually can play for the title.  You know, #4-12, mostly consisting of non-helmet teams, many of whom will have 2-3 losses, sometimes close losses that could've went either way. 

I find that all of this drivel is mostly coming from the fans of the helmet teams.  I swear, the old system was like a boxing match where 90% of the matches are decided by judges, not a KO.  Nothing more than a beauty pageant where the helmet teams are always given the benefit of the doubt.  I don't like them but TCU played their way into the championship game over Michigan, if it was up to the playoff committee they would've never been given the chance.  In 1998 KSU was screwed over the chance to play for a title because they were a non-helmet team and they lost a close game to a really good A&M team, whereas OU was giftwrapped the chance to play in the 2003 CG after losing to KSU in that title game. 

Imagine how strange it would be for there to be two superbowl champions, or two world series champs. 

I'm always in favor of settling it on the field.  The best team wins.  One true champion, and if the helmets prevail then so be it.
First of all, your team is not that far below a helmet and has shown a willingness and ability to spend with the big boys on NIL so they just might manage to obtain enough talent to win two or more playoff games and win an NC so you aren't really the type of fan I'm worried about our sport losing.

@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , and @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's TxTech fan friend are in a different situation. Their teams are never going to have enough top-level talent to win a four-team playoff.

You brought up TCU and that they beat Michigan in a CFP game. You said that the committee would never have given them a shot. Well, that is obviously wrong, the committee gave them a spot even though they lost their CG and looked a lot less impressive than other candidates.

That win over Michigan is just one of those examples of "upsets happen". Sometimes the .500 Purdue team takes out otherwise undefeated Ohio State but how did that work out for TCU when they got to the CG?

TCU making the CG last year doesn't prove that non-helmets can win in this system, it is proof of this:
That is true. But teams 5-12 will have to win 4 consecutive games against the best of the best to win that title.

Is it possible? Yes. But CFB doesn't have the same level of parity as the NFL where a 9-7 wild card team can go on a run and beat the 18-0 Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

IMHO it's harder for a non-helmet to win the title in the new system than the old.
Purdue is always going to be at a talent deficit relative to tOSU/PSU/M. In the past they could still potentially win the league by ducking one on the schedule, upsetting one, and catching one in turmoil. Now with a CG? Well they made it to the CG last year, that worked out as well for them as TCU making the CFPCG.
I cannot emphasize this enough.  Let them settle it on the field, you know like they do in every other sport.
What made the CFB regular season special was that a random Purdue/tOSU (2018), Bama/Mizzou (1975), or Tx/TxTech (2008) game might significantly impact the NC. Each regular season game mattered because each one *COULD* change the whole season. Not anymore.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 06, 2023, 12:42:50 PM
I know this might be difficult for a helmet fan to understand... But no, we plebes don't define our seasons solely based upon the ability to ruin yours. Even though my team has proudly worn the "Spoilermakers" moniker from time to time, we also want something to play for beyond spoiling your fun.

In the old setup, a school like Purdue had a chance at a conference championship, and a chance at a trip to a Rose Bowl that meant something. A Rose Bowl that, while for us wouldn't have NC implications, would be the sort of game that a national audience tuned in to simply because it was the Rose Bowl, the granddaddy of them all. It was a destination, one that any team in the B1G was proud to make it to.

The difference now is that with an 18-team conference and CCG, it's unlikely a team like Purdue will ever even appear in a CCG much less have a chance to win it. And now, even if Purdue got into some sort of crazy scenario where they had a dream season, appeared in the CFP, and their game was held at the Rose Bowl, it is no longer a destination. It's merely a stepping stone (where they'd likely get eliminated of course) with zero standalone value as a game. It's both almost unattainable in the new system, but at the same time meaningless for a team like Purdue if they actually do attain it.

In 2018 we enjoyed improbably beating a really good team, under the lights, with much of the country watching and collectively asking themselves "WTF is happening???" Yeah, it derailed your CFP hopes that year, but it was OUR win that we cheered, not YOUR loss.
I do actually get that you, as a Purdue fan, cheered Purdue's win more that tOSU's loss but recall that one of the catalysts to this whole discussion was @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) sharing a story of playing backyard football as a kid and pausing their game to run inside and watch because dad came out and yelled that Indiana was tied with Ohio State.

@ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) grew up as AAA in Ann Arbor as a Michigan fan and probably none of the kids involved were Indiana fans. They weren't watching to see if Indiana would win, they were watching to see if Ohio State would lose.

The same applies to the 2018 Purdue upset of Ohio State. The Purdue and Ohio State fans were going to watch regardless. The extra viewers were ALL watching to see if Ohio State would lose. Kids playing backyard football in Alabama in Roll Tide gear paused their games to go see if Ohio State would lose.

Next year, when we have a 12 team playoff if Purdue beats tOSU/M/PSU will anyone outside the Midwest even notice?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 06, 2023, 01:07:05 PM
Quote
You brought up TCU and that they beat Michigan in a CFP game. You said that the committee would never have given them a shot. Well, that is obviously wrong, the committee gave them a spot even though they lost their CG and looked a lot less impressive than other candidates.


I stated that poorly.  What I meant was under the old system, whether it be BCS computers or the polls or whatever system we had in the past they would never have given TCU a shot.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2023, 01:24:36 PM
Purdue is always going to be at a talent deficit relative to tOSU/PSU/M. In the past they could still potentially win the league by ducking one on the schedule, upsetting one, and catching one in turmoil. 
And yet I also know the level of privilege that Purdue has just be being part of the B1G. Obviously financially, but also due to recruiting. 

I used to slight Darrell Hazell as killing our recruiting down to recruiting like the MAC... Until I actually looked into it. Hazell recruited better than any MAC team every one of his four years, with the exception of ONE team (don't remember which) that finished ranked like 3 spots higher in ONE year. 

The likely WORST Purdue coach in history, worst recruiting in the B1G over that stretch, still recruited a team that would (on paper) dominate the MAC. 

If Purdue is playing for nothing, they're playing for even less. And yet the money is still too good being part of FBS for the G5 to want to split. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 06, 2023, 01:42:11 PM
First of all, your team is not that far below a helmet and has shown a willingness and ability to spend with the big boys on NIL so they just might manage to obtain enough talent to win two or more playoff games and win an NC so you aren't really the type of fan I'm worried about our sport losing.

@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , and @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's TxTech fan friend are in a different situation. Their teams are never going to have enough top-level talent to win a four-team playoff.

You brought up TCU and that they beat Michigan in a CFP game. You said that the committee would never have given them a shot. Well, that is obviously wrong, the committee gave them a spot even though they lost their CG and looked a lot less impressive than other candidates.

That win over Michigan is just one of those examples of "upsets happen". Sometimes the .500 Purdue team takes out otherwise undefeated Ohio State but how did that work out for TCU when they got to the CG?

TCU making the CG last year doesn't prove that non-helmets can win in this system, it is proof of this:Purdue is always going to be at a talent deficit relative to tOSU/PSU/M. In the past they could still potentially win the league by ducking one on the schedule, upsetting one, and catching one in turmoil. Now with a CG? Well they made it to the CG last year, that worked out as well for them as TCU making the CFPCG. What made the CFB regular season special was that a random Purdue/tOSU (2018), Bama/Mizzou (1975), or Tx/TxTech (2008) game might significantly impact the NC. Each regular season game mattered because each one *COULD* change the whole season. Not anymore.
I would say that A&M is definitely in that 2nd tier status, just below the helmets.  Somewhere in the 18-22 range.  So good enough to be in the conversation at times, but never with enough luck (TCU) to make it in to the dance.  2020 season still stings from that view point.  

You're somewhat mistaken about winning the 4 games in a row because you think it will always be the Purdue's vs the Bama's.  Sometimes it will be, but often it will be the Purdue's vs the KSU's or the oSu's.  Sometimes Bama will get beat out by the Ole Miss of CFB.  It's not always about talent.  If it is, just don't play the games and give the trophy out to the recruiting champs.  

You're still not understanding what I'm trying to say.  All of us non-helmet teams know this.  The system is rigged.  It's nothing more than a beauty pageant the way it's set up now and has been for at least 50-75 years.  Those teams that were good in the 50's and 60's got their name cemented at the top of the CFB world and have been able to remain there.  It takes decades to get somebody off the list.  I guarantee you right now if you took a poll of all the helmet teams Nebraska and Tennessee are on that list and LSU and Florida are not, even though each team has more MNC's this century than they do (5 vs 0).  

All the helmet teams are helmet teams literally because they take a poll and decide who's on top.  A poll made up of people's opinion.  The helmet teams are always given the benefit of the doubt.  Notre Dame could go 0-12 next year and the following year they would start at #10.  OU and Alabama lose their CCG, they play for the title.  oSu loses one game by a last second FG, they get the Alamo bowl (edit I think they got the Rose, but not the chance to play for the BCS).  KSU loses in OT, they get the Alamo.  

You seem so convinced that I care whether or not IU can beat OSU or A&M can just knock off 'Bama and ruin their season.  F no.  I want my own team to win every game, I want to play for all the marbles not just be the asteroid in the belt that bounces another asteroid that causes it to smash into the earth.  

You keep insisting that ONE GAME can change the course of CFB history, but why does that one game have to come in the middle of the season and not the end?  TCU may have gotten smoked in the CFB final but at least they had their shot.  

I ask again:  What is wrong with letting the teams settle it on the field instead of in the polls?  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 06, 2023, 01:59:00 PM
Quote
Next year, when we have a 12 team playoff if Purdue beats tOSU/M/PSU will anyone outside the Midwest even notice?


I honestly didn't know that Purdue even played for the CCG.  I follow CFB, I get on these message boards and duke it out with all of my college football like-minded people.  But I doubt any other fans outside of the Midwest really care about TOSU/PSU any more than myself.  I couldn't tell you when Purdue (is it PU or UP ;)) beat tOSU, hell I didn't even remember that happening and I do watch a good amount of CFB.  When it comes to the Big 10, my impression as an outsider is it's 90% Michigan and tOSU, and 8% PSU, and the a few percent Mich St, and that's about it.  I'm sure you feel the same way about the SEC being all about Bama, Florida, and Georgia. 

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 06, 2023, 02:01:46 PM
I ask again:  What is wrong with letting the teams settle it on the field instead of in the polls?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2023, 02:12:44 PM
I ask again:  What is wrong with letting the teams settle it on the field instead of in the polls? 
I can't speak for medina, but there's actually nothing wrong with it being settled on the field.

I argued in the past for the 5+1+2 playoff (5 of the P5 champs, top G5 champ, 2 at-large) because it would bring back the value of the conference championship. Want to go to the playoff? Win your damn conference. It's in your control, it is not poll- or committee-based, and you get into the playoff based on what you accomplish on the field. It's true that the G5 champ might be a bit of a beauty pageant (top ranked), and obviously the 2 at-large is a beauty pageant, but every conference that matters has a clear and objective entry path to the CFP.

We now have that in the 12-team playoff. Top 6 ranked conference champs get in. While there is some subjectivity there (what if 2 G5 champs are higher ranked than one terrible backdoor P5 champ?), it's almost clear and objective. Certainly an improvement on objectivity compared to the committee and 4-team CFP.

However, if you go back and read medina's original post in this thread, it was less about the playoff and more about the entire changing tapestry of the sport. It's about the transfer portal and NIL, not about the playoff. It was about a system that was rigged, to be sure, but that seems to be getting MORE rigged year by year.

I believe that a lot of the changes from 1970->recently were about increasing parity, rather than decreasing. Continual reduction of the scholarship limits. Restrictions on the number of on-field coaches. Investigation (although imperfect) for shady recruiting / bagmen / pay-for-play. Efforts to cracking down on oversigning. Transfer restrictions to reduce the ability for one school to poach another's players, as a player would have to sit out a year.

You can argue that some of these (lack of money via NIL or explicit pay-for-play, and transfer restrictions) are unfair to players, and perhaps you'd be right. But they improved parity in the sport.

NIL and the transfer portal will reduce parity in the sport. Which, as someone who was a fan of a "peasant" per Mandel, basically means that as the rich get richer (medina's post title), the have-nots like my school will be increasingly excluded from competition. Edited to add: One more aspect is now the 18-team conference, and the potential for eliminating divisions and making the CCG the "two best teams" in the conference, rather than division winners. This makes it even less likely that my team would get to play for, much less be likely to have a chance in, a conference championship game. It's a numbers game.

It's true, a 12-team CFP theoretically means there's greater opportunity for a school like mine to actually get to play for the title. But the flipside of NIL / transfer portal is that it is MUCH less likely that a school like mine can recruit and keep enough talent to practically ever get there.

I believe that lack of parity will be bad for the sport, long-term. It's one of the reasons I no longer watch Purdue athletics. It no longer interests me when the deck was already stacked against my school and the changes in the game make it even more so.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 06, 2023, 02:13:41 PM
So as long as the system is rigged for the betterment of your team you're happy with the system, but when we make it more equal for the rest we're killing the golden goose?  

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 06, 2023, 02:51:47 PM
So as long as the system is rigged for the betterment of your team you're happy with the system, but when we make it more equal for the rest we're killing the golden goose?
LoL.

As @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) advised in his last post, go back and read my original post that started this thread.

The changes absolutely have NOT made the sport more equal.  It is more rigged in favor of teams like mine than ever:
No, the sport is decidedly NOT more equal now. It is MUCH less equal.


As a fan of a helmet I could simply celebrate this. I'm not, I'm concerned for the long-term health of the sport because we are chasing away fans of non-helmets. If you don't believe me, look at @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , and the TxTech fan that @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) mentioned upthread. All three of them were fans of non-helmet teams, teams a lot less "helmety" than your Aggies. They also weren't just run of the mill fans, they were super fans. They were message board posters and guys who drove 12 hours round trip a bunch of times per year for games. If we are losing them, we are in trouble.

I've come up with some theories as to why we are losing them. You can disagree with my theories and propose your own but to assert that I'm only complaining because the changes don't benefit my team us both wrong (they do) and misses the whole point.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2023, 07:09:25 PM

I stated that poorly.  What I meant was under the old system, whether it be BCS computers or the polls or whatever system we had in the past they would never have given TCU a shot. 
Correctly so.  65-7.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2023, 07:10:16 PM
The new system doesn't open a door for the have-nots, it simply gives the haves a mulligan, maybe two.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 06, 2023, 07:21:30 PM
Correctly so.  65-7. 
Eh, tough to take that argument seriously. The BCS also gave us FSU over Virginia Tech, Miami over Nebraska, an Oklahoma team that got blown out, USC over Oklahoma, Florida over Ohio State, Bammer over Texas, Bama over LSU, and Bama over Notre Dame. Your "correct" system gave us all sorts of blowouts. At least last year we got some good playoff games. Tough to make any sort of cogent argument that the BCS was gave us more deserving teams or more entertainment, which is why it was wisely sent to the garbage bin of failures.

The new system absolutely does give more teams a chance. Saying otherwise is just silly. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2023, 07:29:47 PM
Then I guess everyone besides you is silly.

You can treat 65-7 as just another whatever blowout loss.  
But it wasn't.
G5:  let us in!
You're being unfair, let us in!!
Cinci beat ND, you have to let them in!
Let us in, treat us equal!
(TCU loses to KSU, doesn't drop a spot, is allowed in)
WHOAAA GONZO CRAZY UPSET OVER MICHIGAN!!!!
65-7
.
We let them in.
They played balls-to-the-wall, hair-on-fire football to upset a blueblood (while allowing 39 2nd-half points).
Then they had to play another big-boy team.
You can't have the 1980 US hockey team beat Russia in consecutive weeks.
65-7 was different.  It could have been worse.  That's the part you're ignoring.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 06, 2023, 08:08:36 PM

Quote
65-7 was different.  It could have been worse.  That's the part you're ignoring.
Why would anyone possibly care? That is the part you are avoiding. Watching a 21 point blowout and a 58 point blowout are typically pretty equally boring. But in the playoffs, we saw TCU beat Michigan. In your world, we just get the blowout. There is no rational argument for wanting one blowout over two great games and one blowout. Your math ain't mathin'.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2023, 08:10:42 PM
Why would anyone possibly care? That is the part you are avoiding. Watching a 21 point blowout and a 58 point blowout are typically pretty equally boring. But in the playoffs, we saw TCU beat Michigan. In your world, we just get the blowout. There is no rational argument for wanting one blowout over two great games and one blowout. Your math ain't mathin'.

Boring's got nothing to do with it.  I specified they played with their hair on fire and beat UM.  I literally typed that in my post you mustn't have read.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 06, 2023, 08:16:17 PM
Boring's got nothing to do with it.  I specified they played with their hair on fire and beat UM.  I literally typed that in my post you mustn't have read.
Yes, it was a great game. A game you are saying should never have happened. I don't understand this position, arguing against more access for more teams and in favor of having fewer, suckier games among the chosen few five teams.

GIVE US CRAPPIER PRODUCTS NOW!
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 06, 2023, 10:19:53 PM
I don’t even understand the phrase “ playing with their hair on fire”. Was Michigan not?  We’re they not giving it their best effort?  Bull shit. TCU just flat out played them in the first half and held on for the 2nd half. But it wouldn’t have mattered who won, either TCU or Michigan, the title game would’ve had the same result because it will be the SEC winning 90% of the time. How many years do we need to prove this out?  Because we’re approaching about the 20 year mark. 

We have just as many blowout title games as we do close ones. I clearly recall Nebraska getting blown out by Miami, ND ( permanent blue blood) getting blown out by Bama, Florida getting blown out Nebraska. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2023, 12:42:12 AM
TCU was a worse team that upset a better team.  I didn't comment on UM's effort.

Again, the caricature some of you have of my posts must be awfully entertaining and/or maddening.  But it's not what I type.  Read what I type, please.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2023, 12:43:24 AM
I guess I'm the only one that differentiates a blowout game that had a single-digit betting line versus a foregone conclusion. 

My bad.

UM probably wouldn't have beaten UGA.  Maybe they win 2 out of 10.  1?  4?  Somewhere in there.
There is no universe in which TCU beats UGA.  What's "suckier" than that?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2023, 02:31:39 AM
Anyway, I've repeatedly said in the past that crowing a champion should be exclusive, not inclusive.
I happen not to want 9-7 Super Bowl "champions." 
I happen to like every regular season game meaning a lot.

TCU lost it's last game (and this began in 2001) and happened to not drop 1 spot in the polls for 2 reasons:  
1 - to avoid a UM/OSU rematch in a semifinal (which is a BS reason)
2 - because everyone else had one too many losses (when they happened and who they were against being completely ignored)

All of it was stupid.  As it was stupid when OU got rocked in its CCG, but still played for the NC in 03.  As it was stupid Nebraska was the sacrificial lamb vs Miami in 01 after allowing 63 points vs CU in its CCG.

People have broken the idea of logic by doing these things.  Why did the Big XII have a CCG game in 2022?  What was the point, from a competition point of view?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 07:14:24 AM
TCU was better than Michigan that day. That’s the only stat that matters. 

Or do we just not really care about the scoreboard, just start giving the W to the closest blue blood?  

Under the old system TCU would have not been given a shot. Michigan is still being defended as being some kind of victim. 

“ TCU played with their hair on fire” 

“ Michigan came out flat” 

Sure they got their ass kicked in the final. It happens a lot, not much different than many other years. But they played their way into it, and settled it on the field. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 07:57:07 AM
Anyway, I've repeatedly said in the past that crowing a champion should be exclusive, not inclusive.
I happen not to want 9-7 Super Bowl "champions."
I happen to like every regular season game meaning a lot.

TCU lost it's last game (and this began in 2001) and happened to not drop 1 spot in the polls for 2 reasons: 
1 - to avoid a UM/OSU rematch in a semifinal (which is a BS reason)
2 - because everyone else had one too many losses (when they happened and who they were against being completely ignored)

All of it was stupid.  As it was stupid when OU got rocked in its CCG, but still played for the NC in 03.  As it was stupid Nebraska was the sacrificial lamb vs Miami in 01 after allowing 63 points vs CU in its CCG.

People have broken the idea of logic by doing these things.  Why did the Big XII have a CCG game in 2022?  What was the point, from a competition point of view?
Technicality. That was not the XII CCG.

Colorado beat #3 Texas in the CCG. If not, Texas would have been in the BCS championship game.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 07, 2023, 08:58:01 AM
blowouts are part of the game - even with blue bloods

1971 season

The national championship showdown between No. 1 Nebraska and No. 2 Alabama barely got started before the powerful Cornhuskers erased all doubt. Nebraska led 14-0 at the end of the first quarter and 28-0 at halftime, en route to a 38-6 thrashing of the Crimson Tide.

1972 season

Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Rodgers erased all possible doubts about his claim to national pre-eminence with a devastating one-man attack on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame as the Nebraska Cornhuskers confiscated their third consecutive Orange Bowl trophy with a 40-6 victory.  it was 40-0

And don't forget 62 - 24 in 1995 Osborne over Spurrier
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 08:58:18 AM
Technicality. That was not the XII CCG.

Colorado beat #3 Texas in the CCG. If not, Texas would have been in the BCS championship game.
I remember that season well.  Because CU was not really all that great, but they had it dialed in for those two games and then went to the Fiesta Bowl or something and got spanked.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 07, 2023, 09:10:27 AM
yup, similar to TCU being dialed in for a couple games last season
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 09:11:28 AM
Eh, tough to take that argument seriously. The BCS also gave us FSU over Virginia Tech, Miami over Nebraska, an Oklahoma team that got blown out, USC over Oklahoma, Florida over Ohio State, Bammer over Texas, Bama over LSU, and Bama over Notre Dame. Your "correct" system gave us all sorts of blowouts. At least last year we got some good playoff games. Tough to make any sort of cogent argument that the BCS was gave us more deserving teams or more entertainment, which is why it was wisely sent to the garbage bin of failures.

The new system absolutely does give more teams a chance. Saying otherwise is just silly.

Huh?  Are these supposed to be examples of "blowouts?"  Alabama only led Texas by 3 points with 3 minutes to go, with Texas having the ball at the time. 

If Colt McCoy hadn't been knocked out in the 1st quarter, I have no doubt how that game would have turned out.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 09:15:09 AM
Technicality. That was not the XII CCG.

Colorado beat #3 Texas in the CCG. If not, Texas would have been in the BCS championship game.

And then Texas would have been the sacrificial lamb for Miami.  Kinda glad it didn't work out that way, although that's definitely a conference championship Texas should have won.  The Horns beat the Buffs 41-7 in the regular season but a Chris Simms meltdown in the CCG gave them the 39-37 edge for the B12 title.  Rematches suck.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 09:28:10 AM
I remember watching the end of that 2001 season closely.

I really thought 11-1 Oregon should have been the opponent for Miami. Only loss was midseason to a very good Stanford team.

They were the ones who stomped Colorado in the Fiesta. They were the ones with the speed to maybe give Miami a game. They had Joey Heisman.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 09:35:31 AM
I remember watching the end of that 2001 season closely.

I really thought 11-1 Oregon should have been the opponent for Miami. Only loss was midseason to a very good Stanford team.

They were the ones who stomped Colorado in the Fiesta. They were the ones with the speed to maybe give Miami a game. They had Joey Heisman.
It was a crazy end to the season, no doubt.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 09:36:22 AM
Just for kicks I went back and looked at the last poll of the 1998 season (AP poll) and sliced out the top 12 teams:

https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/seasons.cfm?appollid=821


1<1[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tennessee (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=28)[/iurl] (70)[/font][/size][/color]SEC (Southeastern)12-017501W 24-14 N #23 Mississippi State
2<4[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida State (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=139)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]ACC (Atlantic Coast)11-116712 
[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]3[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]<[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]5[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)][color=var(--bs-link-color)]Ohio State (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=31)[/iurl][/color][/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]Big Ten[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]10-1[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]1602[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]4[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)] [/font][/size][/color]
4<2[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Kansas State (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=141)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Big 1211-114763 
5<6[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arizona (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=138)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Pac-1011-114127DNP (Did not play)
6<3[color=var(--bs-link-color)]UCLA (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=59)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Pac-1010-113985 
7<7[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=117)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]SEC (Southeastern)9-213378 
8<10[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Texas A&M (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=14)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Big 1211-213106 
9<8[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Wisconsin (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=36)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Big Ten10-111769 
10<9[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tulane (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=18)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]C-USA (Conference USA)11-0106710DNP (Did not play)
11<11[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arkansas (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=32)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]SEC (Southeastern)9-296013 
12<12[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Georgia Tech (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=63)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]ACC (Atlantic Coast)9-287414 



I picked 1998 in particular because it was a memorable year for me.  A&M won the Big 12 over KSU, who then lost their chance to play for the BCS championship.  UCLA had a chance to play for the title but had to play a late season game vs Miami and ended up losing.  KSU was aware of the UCLA loss, which some have said made them think they had it in the bag while the game was still in doubt.  A&M (uncharacteristically) overcame a 4th quarter 15 pt deficit and beat them.  Tulane was pretty good, Arkansas was pretty good.  Now imagine if these 12 teams all made the playoffs.  Whatever format you want to pick, it would make for some pretty good football.  I realize that Tulane and GT and Ark would probably be out in the first round, but upsets happen all the time and you could very easily have somebody like Florida winning it all that year or KSU or UCLA.  Heck, even a good but not great A&M could have a chance to at least make the 2nd or 3rd round.  We did end up playing both FSU and OSU that season, both were losses but as I recall they were competitive games and we just didn't have enough offense to beat either team.  



Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 09:44:13 AM
That late Miami/UCLA game was a makeup due to a hurricane.

UCLA went to the Rose Bowl. Lost to Wisconsin. Fun.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 07, 2023, 09:50:08 AM
Under the old system TCU would have not been given a shot. Michigan is still being defended as being some kind of victim.
Nobody is defending Michigan nor suggesting that they are a victim of some nefarious plot.

What @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) and I are doing is acknowledging the reality that in a single game situation the best team does NOT always win. Do you disagree?

When the better team loses it defies logic so we come up with imperfect explanations, things like:
There are others but we are simply grasping for ways to explain the illogical.
Or do we just not really care about the scoreboard, just start giving the W to the closest blue blood? 

Sure they got their ass kicked in the final. It happens a lot, not much different than many other years. But they played their way into it, and settled it on the field.
OAM and I care a lot more about scoreboards than you do. In the soon-to-be 12-team CFP the scoreboards in the 11 CFP games will matter a lot but the scoreboards in the ~1,500 regular season games will only matter collectively, not individually.

My team has been the most consistent contender in the 80-odd years of the poll era. As such, I have LOTS of examples of seasons in which a single regular season loss (almost always to an inferior opponent) kept my team out of the NC either directly or indirectly. Some examples:

Nobody wants to ignore scoreboards and declare the blueblood the winner. In the poll era Ohio State missed out on six NC's (or NC shots) due to only one loss to a non-helmet (MSUX3, PU, UW, TCU).


The new system doesn't make scoreboards matter more, it replaces ~1,500 scoreboards that used to matter with 11 that matter.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 07, 2023, 10:00:33 AM
People are trying to argue the CFP in here. 

If you go all the way back to @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) 's original post, it's not about the playoff. 

It's about the fact that NIL and the transfer portal are tilting the field SO FAR in favor of the blue bloods that fans of every other team in CFB might start losing interest. The CFP may be a part of this, but mostly in that it has completely sucked the postseason air out of the room such that if a non-helmet team goes 8-4 and gets invited to the Punxsutawney Phil Bowl, is that even worth tuning in for? It at least used to be. 

There was never true parity, but much of what the sport has done over the last several decades had an intent of increasing parity. NIL and the transfer portal is going FAR in the opposite direction, and may kill interest in the sport if you're not a helmet or helmet-adjacent team. And there may not be enough interest at that point, because all it becomes is a shittier version of the NFL. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 07, 2023, 10:08:28 AM
Just for kicks I went back and looked at the last poll of the 1998 season (AP poll) and sliced out the top 12 teams:

https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/seasons.cfm?appollid=821


1<1[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tennessee (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=28)[/iurl] (70)[/font][/size][/color]SEC (Southeastern)12-017501W 24-14 N #23 Mississippi State
2<4[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida State (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=139)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]ACC (Atlantic Coast)11-116712
[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]3[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]<[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]5[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)][color=var(--bs-link-color)]Ohio State (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=31)[/iurl][/color][/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]Big Ten[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]10-1[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]1602[/font][/size][/color][color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]4[/font][/size][/color]
4<2[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Kansas State (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=141)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Big 1211-114763
5<6[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arizona (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=138)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Pac-1011-114127DNP (Did not play)
6<3[color=var(--bs-link-color)]UCLA (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=59)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Pac-1010-113985
7<7[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=117)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]SEC (Southeastern)9-213378
8<10[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Texas A&M (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=14)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Big 1211-213106
9<8[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Wisconsin (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=36)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]Big Ten10-111769
10<9[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tulane (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=18)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]C-USA (Conference USA)11-0106710DNP (Did not play)
11<11[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arkansas (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=32)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]SEC (Southeastern)9-296013
12<12[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Georgia Tech (https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1998&teamid=63)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]ACC (Atlantic Coast)9-287414
I picked 1998 in particular because it was a memorable year for me.  A&M won the Big 12 over KSU, who then lost their chance to play for the BCS championship.  UCLA had a chance to play for the title but had to play a late season game vs Miami and ended up losing.  KSU was aware of the UCLA loss, which some have said made them think they had it in the bag while the game was still in doubt.  A&M (uncharacteristically) overcame a 4th quarter 15 pt deficit and beat them.  Tulane was pretty good, Arkansas was pretty good.  Now imagine if these 12 teams all made the playoffs.  Whatever format you want to pick, it would make for some pretty good football.  I realize that Tulane and GT and Ark would probably be out in the first round, but upsets happen all the time and you could very easily have somebody like Florida winning it all that year or KSU or UCLA.  Heck, even a good but not great A&M could have a chance to at least make the 2nd or 3rd round.  We did end up playing both FSU and OSU that season, both were losses but as I recall they were competitive games and we just didn't have enough offense to beat either team.
Sure, (some of) those playoff games would have been fun but if we'd had a 12-team CFP then:

You simply can't have it both ways. You can either have a big postseason tournament OR you can have regular season games that matter.

Please quit beating up strawmen. Nobody is saying that we don't want games to matter or that we want upsets to be ignored. The debate is over which games matter and when upsets matter.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 10:45:41 AM
Which is why I've stated that with NIL and Transfer Portal they should reduce the amount of players a team can have, either scholarship or non-scholarship (is scholarships still really needed?).  What's the number?  I don't know.  Maybe 50-60, but with players on a 4 year rotation it seems low.  I'm also in favor of a 5th year, but only if a player has been with the same team for more than 2 years. And I think transfer's should be limited to 2 schools.  

Seriously, those who cannot keep up with NIL/Facilities/spending and the whole 9 should just split out already.  You're already stated how the situation for a program like Purdue is.  Their chance or winning the MNC before 2010 = essentially zero.  Their chance after NIL/TP etc = Absolute Zero.  So they're just basically cannon fodder.  If they weren't in the Big 10 from way back, realistically speaking, what conference would they be in?  MAC?  WAC?  There is a line of major/non-major CF programs.  A&M barely makes it, but Purdue, TT, IU, ISU do not.  It's obvious, and it's inevitable because eventually there is just too much money coming in and the games are just too good.  You can't fight the future.  You can delay it, you can make it complicated.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 07, 2023, 11:13:18 AM
Seriously, those who cannot keep up with NIL/Facilities/spending and the whole 9 should just split out already.  You're already stated how the situation for a program like Purdue is.  Their chance or winning the MNC before 2010 = essentially zero.  Their chance after NIL/TP etc = Absolute Zero.  So they're just basically cannon fodder.  If they weren't in the Big 10 from way back, realistically speaking, what conference would they be in?  MAC?  WAC?  There is a line of major/non-major CF programs.  A&M barely makes it, but Purdue, TT, IU, ISU do not.  It's obvious, and it's inevitable because eventually there is just too much money coming in and the games are just too good.  You can't fight the future.  You can delay it, you can make it complicated. 

But that's what some of you helmet and helmet-adjacent fans don't understand. For us, it was NEVER about winning the MNC. 

But even knowing that we're cannon fodder, there was a hierarchy of goals for a team like Purdue:



The NIL/Portal means that our coaches have to constantly be worried that our top players will be poached. The CFP and realignment have basically meant that goal #1 is gone, goal #2 is mostly gone because "NYD bowl" is now mostly for CFP participants, and the excitement about goal #3 is lessened because the CFP has sucked all the oxygen out of the room. 

Back when 2-4 teams each year, whether it was voting or the BCS, were in the MNC discussion, it was a lot easier to find meaning for the other 120+ teams in FBS. Bowl games were meaningless, we all knew it, but they were fun. Now it's CFP or bust, and with the NIL/Portal it's a boot on the throat of the cannon fodder while promising "oh, you have access, it's a 12-team playoff now!"
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 11:34:57 AM
I think after this next TV deal expires, football conferences will cease to exist.

You'll have Big Ten hoops and Olympics. PAC (or whatever), SEC, ACC, XII the same. Geographically positioned too.

The fat gets trimmed and only Kings, Barons and Knights are in the big football league, which will simply be a minor league for the NFL.

And I'll be boating and golfing and not watching that shit.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 11:37:37 AM
I think after this next TV deal expires, football conferences will cease to exist.

You'll have Big Ten hoops and Olympics. PAC (or whatever), SEC, ACC, XII the same. Geographically positioned too.

The fat gets trimmed and only Kings, Barons and Knights are in the big football league, which will simply be a minor league for the NFL.

And I'll be boating and golfing and not watching that shit.

I know a lot of people believe this, and it would make sense in a lot of ways.

But because football revenues have to support all other sports both at the conference level, and the individual school level, I don't see this ever happening in real life.  It will be too difficult-- and more importantly too destructive-- to extricate football from everything else.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 01:43:30 PM
I still think it could happen, with the power league schools funding the conference they came from.

But it would need a reset. The PAC schools would have to get back together. No conference can be more than 10 schools.

Using the 2022 list from Mandel:

So, if the Kings, Barons and Knights from the Big Ten (pre-PSU) were in the power league, it would include Ohio State and Michigan as Kings, Iowa, MSU and Wisconsin as Barons, and Minnesota and Northwestern as Knights. 

7 out of the "original" 10 schools are in. Illinois, Indiana and Purdue are left out, but still get a slightly reduced share of football revenue to fund other sports, and their football programs. Football is free to schedule as they wish, as those would be independent.

Now, this works for the Big Ten for sure.

Looking at the PAC (pre-Utah and Colorado) they would have also have 7 of the 10 "originals" in the power league. This works.

Who would get whacked from the XII so they could get to 10? Or do you go to the Big 8 and SWC and add enough schools to those conference to get to 10? Big 8 could grab Utah and BYU probably. SWC would need one more member.

Arky would go back to the SWC as the SEC has to get to 10. 

USCe would go to the ACC and bring them to 9, unless FSU is a part of that conference. Then they are at 10.

Then there is the East Coast Conference. PSU, Miami, Cuse, BC, Rutgers, WVU, Pitt, VT, Louisville and Cincy??

SEC should have no issues getting the majority of its members in the power league, sans Vandy.

Peasants include:

(https://i.imgur.com/6mVaOFj.png)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 02:11:43 PM
I still think it could happen, with the power league schools funding the conference they came from.

But it would need a reset. The PAC schools would have to get back together. No conference can be more than 10 schools.

Using the 2022 list from Mandel:

So, if the Kings, Barons and Knights from the Big Ten (pre-PSU) were in the power league, it would include Ohio State and Michigan as Kings, Iowa, MSU and Wisconsin as Barons, and Minnesota and Northwestern as Knights.

7 out of the "original" 10 schools are in. Illinois, Indiana and Purdue are left out, but still get a slightly reduced share of football revenue to fund other sports, and their football programs. Football is free to schedule as they wish, as those would be independent.

Now, this works for the Big Ten for sure.

Looking at the PAC (pre-Utah and Colorado) they would have also have 7 of the 10 "originals" in the power league. This works.

Who would get whacked from the XII so they could get to 10? Or do you go to the Big 8 and SWC and add enough schools to those conference to get to 10? Big 8 could grab Utah and BYU probably. SWC would need one more member.

Arky would go back to the SWC as the SEC has to get to 10.

USCe would go to the ACC and bring them to 9, unless FSU is a part of that conference. Then they are at 10.

Then there is the East Coast Conference. PSU, Miami, Cuse, BC, Rutgers, WVU, Pitt, VT, Louisville and Cincy??

SEC should have no issues getting the majority of its members in the power league, sans Vandy.

Peasants include:

(https://i.imgur.com/6mVaOFj.png)

What you've just described is so complex and convoluted, that it proves my point.  It's never gonna happen.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 02:20:01 PM
Doesn't seem convoluted to me at all.

The "traditional" conferences get to keep all their Olympic sports. The football schools are all like Notre Dame - Independent - except for the divisions they are placed in within the power league.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 02:39:04 PM
Doesn't seem convoluted to me at all.

The "traditional" conferences get to keep all their Olympic sports. The football schools are all like Notre Dame - Independent - except for the divisions they are placed in within the power league.

There are no more traditional conferences.  The PAC has been completely blown away and other conferences are now frankenversions of their former selves.  There's nowhwere for those schools to "go back to."  The infrastructure has already been completely wiped out.

Something like this might have been possible 12-15 years ago.  Maybe.  Even then it would have been highly unlikely.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 02:50:42 PM
This is all gonna blow up. That's why I'm proposing a solution for the next time the TV contracts come up.

Who knows. The NFL could come in right now and pay off the ACC GOR, right?

The NFL has no incentive to make a minor league because it already has that. But they always want a bigger piece of the pie, so if they want to create a super-league of the 50 best college programs they could do so - and make a shit-ton of money doing it.

10 divisions with 5 teams each. Traditional rivals be damned. Each division gets a helmet.

2 conferences - CFB North and CFB South. Each gets 5 teams and a Wildcard. Best four get a week off.

If that sounds like the NFL, well it is. NFL light. We're about there now, so just finish it off instead of this slow death of CFB as we knew and loved it.

********************************

This could become a food and wine and booze and travel and energy and weather board. And other news, of course. No electric cars. F that. Sporty cars is fine.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 07, 2023, 02:51:49 PM
This could become a food and wine and booze and travel and energy and weather board. And other news, of course. No electric cars. F that. Sporty cars is fine.
For some of us, it already is...
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 02:58:10 PM
For some of us, it already is...

Very true.

I know my school will be in the power league, so that's fine and dandy. They will simply be the Detroit Lions and never win anything. Fine and dandy too as I will not be watching like I do now.

We'll watch it like we watch the NFL, which is not much, and mostly based on watching the best players. We do not sit and watch a Lions/Cardinals game.

Why TF would we do that to ourselves?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 03:25:41 PM
That's another reason I don't really see the top 40 or whatever, breaking away and forming a separate league.  You gotta have some Purdues and some Texas A&M's to pad your wins, right?

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 07, 2023, 03:35:07 PM
Huh?  Are these supposed to be examples of "blowouts?"  Alabama only led Texas by 3 points with 3 minutes to go, with Texas having the ball at the time.

If Colt McCoy hadn't been knocked out in the 1st quarter, I have no doubt how that game would have turned out.
Not the point. I remember going to bed at halftime because the game wasn't competitive. In OAM's world, that is all that matters. There is no universe where Texas won the game, and football always goes by what we think is going to happen.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 03:40:30 PM
With an expanded playoff like that, and all helmets getting into one division alone, there will be padded wins in their divisions.

You're still gonna have 40 non-helmets to push around.

Michigan could have Wisconsin, Minnie, NU and MSU to push around.

Texas could have aTm, TCU, SMU and Houston to push around.

fND could have Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal to push around.

Etc.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 07, 2023, 08:57:15 PM
and then there's non-con games
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2023, 11:38:40 PM




You simply can't have it both ways. You can either have a big postseason tournament OR you can have regular season games that matter.

Please quit beating up strawmen. Nobody is saying that we don't want games to matter or that we want upsets to be ignored. The debate is over which games matter and when upsets matter.
This thisi this this this 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2023, 11:46:27 PM
Not the point. I remember going to bed at halftime because the game wasn't competitive. In OAM's world, that is all that matters. There is no universe where Texas won the game, and football always goes by what we think is going to happen.
Put on some sunglasses or something, your ire for me is blinding you.

You've said or suggested these 2 things, and I want you to support them with evidence:
1 - TCU losing 65-7 is akin to any other ho-hum blowout
2 - the divide between Texas and Alabama in 09 is akin to the spread between TCU and UGA in '22 (above)
.
Instead of peeing in my Cheerios, for a moment, please just provide some support for these gems.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 12:02:38 AM
A direct statement I can make that might help out with your comprehension and understanding is this:

it's a lot about before the game begins - no team should win a national championship on a huge upset.

Is that actually inflammatory?
Am I nuts??

Biggest NCG upsets since the beginning of the BCS:
+11 - OSU, 2002
+7 - Florida, 2006....Texas, 2005....LSU, 2003
+6.5 - Clemson, 2016
.
And I'll stop there. 
National championship games should have a big bouncer at the door, a spike strip in the parking lot, and surrounded by the walls of Troy.
Only big swinging dick programs with impressive schedules need apply. 
Why?
Because outside of 1 season, everyone we thought had no chance HAD no chance.
ND in 2012.  Destroyed.
FSU was a 10 point dog in 2000.  Didn't score a point on offense.
The Huskers in 2001.  No shot.
TCU....give me a break.
.
I want 2 teams that will have big days on Day 1 of the NFL draft.  I want great HCs and battle-tested teams. 
I believe there were like 6-7 different teams that would have had better odds vs Bama in 2012.  Everyone knew ND wasn't worthy.  But they had a magical zero in the loss column.  Well, so did Boise a few times.  So did Tulane in '98.  So what? 

A five-year old could rank teams by number of losses.  You want to criticize me for what I said about TCU-UM (I still have no idea what I said wrong about it), but YOU'RE the one ignoring TCU's loss to KSU yielding ZERO consequences!  That's bullshit.  Everyone knows it.
We've taken the sport with THE best, most intense regular season and transformed it into a conference championship game outcome being meaningless. 
Fuck that noise.  You can have it.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 08, 2023, 06:18:15 AM
This is my biggest problem with ND. Who gives a shit if they have a 0 in the L column. They never deserved to be in the CFP or BCS. They got in because of helmet status, because the system is rigged for those handful of programs with that golden halo. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 07:07:04 AM

Quote
FSU was a 10 point dog in 2000.  Didn't score a point on offense.
FSU was an 11.5 favorite and by your logic Oklahoma should not have been allowed in the game. That's my point - you keep saying these big upsets should not have been allowed to happen. I agree, to some extent, that expanding the playoffs cheapens the regular season, though that is more because of the selection process. The BCS even had the same problem - the LSU-Bama championship game was an all time own goal. I don't think there is a solution when the "process" is obsessed with selections as opposed to objective ways to earn your way in.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 07:12:02 AM
People are trying to argue the CFP in here.

If you go all the way back to @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) 's original post, it's not about the playoff.

It's about the fact that NIL and the transfer portal are tilting the field SO FAR in favor of the blue bloods that fans of every other team in CFB might start losing interest. The CFP may be a part of this, but mostly in that it has completely sucked the postseason air out of the room such that if a non-helmet team goes 8-4 and gets invited to the Punxsutawney Phil Bowl, is that even worth tuning in for? It at least used to be.

There was never true parity, but much of what the sport has done over the last several decades had an intent of increasing parity. NIL and the transfer portal is going FAR in the opposite direction, and may kill interest in the sport if you're not a helmet or helmet-adjacent team. And there may not be enough interest at that point, because all it becomes is a shittier version of the NFL.
I'm just not seeing it. Basketball as quickly shown the effects of the transfer portal and NIL, and love it or hate it, I don't see much argument that blue bloods are dominating the sport.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:08:06 PM
FSU was an 11.5 favorite and by your logic Oklahoma should not have been allowed in the game. That's my point - you keep saying these big upsets should not have been allowed to happen. I agree, to some extent, that expanding the playoffs cheapens the regular season, though that is more because of the selection process. The BCS even had the same problem - the LSU-Bama championship game was an all time own goal. I don't think there is a solution when the "process" is obsessed with selections as opposed to objective ways to earn your way in.

FSU was favored, by 10, so thanks for finding my mistake.
But even with that, TCU was the biggest underdog in a modern NCG.  Guess why?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:12:07 PM
FSU was favored, by 10, so thanks for finding my mistake.
But even with that, TCU was the biggest underdog in a modern NCG.  Guess why?
Why is at the corner of Who Cares and So What
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:13:45 PM
Why is at the corner of Who Cares and So What
Actually, this is wrong. The Why is because we have like three teams getting the bulk of the high end talent in college football. But God forbid we change the rules to help the other 120 teams.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:14:53 PM
You just said "help the other 120 teams."

That's a lot of help, boss.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 08:16:43 PM
we've been "helpin" them the past 3 decades
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:18:10 PM
You just said "help the other 120 teams."

That's a lot of help, boss.
I know - it's the major problem. Too many teams have little to play for before the season even starts. A team should be able to win their way to a championship no matter what. That is the essence of sports. Instead, we get lots of protection for big market brands.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 08:19:08 PM
like Michigan and tOSU
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:22:58 PM
I know - it's the major problem. Too many teams have little to play for before the season even starts. A team should be able to win their way to a championship no matter what. That is the essence of sports. Instead, we get lots of protection for big market brands.
I totally agree.  That's why I've advocated for everyone to stop the lie and either demote G5 or create a tweener division.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:25:43 PM
I totally agree.  That's why I've advocated for everyone to stop the lie and either demote G5 or create a tweener division. 
It doesn't work unless there is a path to move up for good programs. Otherwise it's just the same old same old - the rich programs protecting themselves from the poors.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 08, 2023, 08:26:22 PM
I totally agree.  That's why I've advocated for everyone to stop the lie and either demote G5 or create a tweener division. 
I've been saying that forever. it's absolutely ridiculous that there are 135 FBS schools or whatever the hell it is now. there should be 60 FBS schools, if that.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 08:29:29 PM
It doesn't work unless there is a path to move up for good programs. Otherwise it's just the same old same old - the rich programs protecting themselves from the poors.
they can move to the Big 12 or PAC4
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:33:53 PM
Programs like Akron average like 12,000 fans per game and have TV deals with Animal Planet for $600K/yr.

When they play Ohio St or VA Tech or Texas, it's like a homeless person playing poker with a CEO.  It's not entertainment, it's a bludgeoning.  
The best a Zip can do is go 10-2, win the MAC, and enjoy their trip to the Obscure.com Bowl in Mobile, AL.  
No thanks. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 08, 2023, 08:34:38 PM
Programs like Akron average like 12,000 fans per game and have TV deals with Animal Planet for $600K/yr.

When they play Ohio St or VA Tech or Texas, it's like a homeless person playing poker with a CEO.  It's not entertainment, it's a bludgeoning. 
The best a Zip can do is go 10-2, win the MAC, and enjoy their trip to the Obscure.com Bowl in Mobile, AL. 
No thanks.
agree 100%.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:34:51 PM
@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) if your plan is to get 120+ programs on equal footing, you're not sharing the same reality as the rest of us
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 08:37:17 PM
well, no thanks if they don't know their place

"10-2, win the MAC, and enjoy their trip to the Obscure.com Bowl in Mobile, AL. "

that's pretty satisfying if they understand how things work
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 08, 2023, 08:38:47 PM
Actually, this is wrong. The Why is because we have like three teams getting the bulk of the high end talent in college football. But God forbid we change the rules to help the other 120 teams.
We spent a long time trying to stop the helmets from being able to simply buy the best team. To attempt that was cheating. 

Now it's all above board. Richest boosters win! 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 08:38:57 PM
@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) if your plan is to get 120+ programs on equal footing, you're not sharing the same reality as the rest of us
well, ya gotta define equal footing

truly equal is a pipe dream

equal for Illinois and Michigan has and never will happen
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Mdot21 on September 08, 2023, 08:39:34 PM
@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) if your plan is to get 120+ programs on equal footing, you're not sharing the same reality as the rest of us
you'll never get P5 teams on equal footing let alone all of FBS. 

cut FBS down to about 60 schools though and you can maybe do things to create a little bit more parity- but you'll never be able to actually create true parity. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 08:40:19 PM
We spent a long time trying to stop the helmets from being able to simply buy the best team. To attempt that was cheating.

Now it's all above board. Richest boosters win!
yes, but the richest players are now able to get richer than their peers
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:41:14 PM
It doesn't work unless there is a path to move up for good programs. Otherwise it's just the same old same old - the rich programs protecting themselves from the poors.
Do you even watch college football?
In 2005, TCU went 11-1 and their reward?  A trip to the Poinsettia Bowl.  
8 years after going 1-10 in the WAC, they did that.  As a member of the MWC.

17 years later, they played for the NC (sorta).
Open your eyes.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:43:29 PM
@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) if your plan is to get 120+ programs on equal footing, you're not sharing the same reality as the rest of us
"Equal footing" is a loaded term. For all teams to be equal is silly. But there ought to be certain opportunities for good programs to move up. Right now, every conference and schedule determination is based on money, not competition. While money makes the world go round, it does lead to things like Georgia having better players at every position compared to TCU. If we made things based on competition, the results would be different. 

The problem I have with your logic is you take the money side and then pretend that is the same as competition. That is the biggest lie going in college sports.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:45:21 PM
Do you even watch college football?
In 2005, TCU went 11-1 and their reward?  A trip to the Poinsettia Bowl. 
8 years after going 1-10 in the WAC, they did that.  As a member of the MWC.

17 years later, they played for the NC (sorta).
Open your eyes.
Yes! That's the problem! It takes two decades of great play just to break in. That is impossibly stupid. Imagine if say, the Detroit Lions, went 16-1 this season and the NFL said, "keep it up and in 17 years we may give you a shot."
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:45:40 PM
"Equal footing" is a loaded term. For all teams to be equal is silly. But there ought to be certain opportunities for good programs to move up. Right now, every conference and schedule determination is based on money, not competition. While money makes the world go round, it does lead to things like Georgia having better players at every position compared to TCU. If we made things based on competition, the results would be different.

The problem I have with your logic is you take the money side and then pretend that is the same as competition. That is the biggest lie going in college sports.
One of us is realistic and the other is you.
I'd like the lie to end, but me wanting something doesn't make it so.  What should be vs what is......open your eyes.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:47:20 PM
Yes! That's the problem! It takes two decades of great play just to break in. That is impossibly stupid.
BUT IT EXISTS.  
But the larger point is that TCU is owed nothing.  Through luck and performance, they've navigated their way into whatever you want to label last year as.  

You complain there's no way to ascend, and when shown a way someone ascended, you bitch about how long it takes.  
I'm sorry reality doesn't run on your clock.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:47:36 PM
One of us is realistic and the other is you.
I'd like the lie to end, but me wanting something doesn't make it so.  What should be vs what is......open your eyes.
"Realistic" is just a loaded term for being all out of ideas. It's no secret that college football presidents are being swamped by TV executives. What is best for college football and what is best for television networks isn't the same. But as long as people like you are pro-network, and I agree most fans are, then we aren't going to get much positive change.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 08:48:07 PM
2 decades of great play only got them a seat at the table because of realignment completely out of their control and had very little to do with their great play
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:48:51 PM
2 decades of great play only got them a seat at the table because of realignment completely out of their control and had very little to do with their great play
Hence my listing luck first.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2023, 08:49:11 PM
"Realistic" is just a loaded term for being all out of ideas. It's no secret that college football presidents are being swamped by TV executives. What is best for college football and what is best for television networks isn't the same. But as long as people like you are pro-network, and I agree most fans are, then we aren't going to get much positive change.
I'm pro-network?  Cool.  Tell me more about myself.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2023, 08:52:07 PM
I'm pro-network?  Cool.  Tell me more about myself.
I will. You pretend that what is good for television is magically good for spots. Your entire point is that programs that aren't as well funded should simply not get the same chances at more well funded teams. You've been very vocal that if there is a good chance for a blowout, the game should not even be played, in favor of a closer game between teams that did not earn it on the field. That is pro-television, not pro-sports.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2023, 12:23:50 AM
I will. You pretend that what is good for television is magically good for spots. Your entire point is that programs that aren't as well funded should simply not get the same chances at more well funded teams. You've been very vocal that if there is a good chance for a blowout, the game should not even be played, in favor of a closer game between teams that did not earn it on the field. That is pro-television, not pro-sports.

You're ignoring WHY they're not as well funded. 

Also, your opinion that Team B didn't "earn it on the field" and Team A did is adorable.  The 1-loss team is automatically better/more deserving than any 2-loss team, right?
That's what you're suggesting here.
A 5 year-old's understanding of context.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2023, 12:27:21 AM
And I've made zero comments about suggesting what's good for networks is good for college football.  You're inventing shit.  What's good for college football is actual competition, not pretending TCU is a deserving playoff team.  Beat Kansas State, bro!

I want the best 2 deserving teams to play for the championship.  I want every game among the top teams to count.  Why did they bother playing the Big 12 CG in 2022?!?  The ramifications of the outcome were fuck-all.
Answer that.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: longhorn320 on September 09, 2023, 12:35:34 AM
my one rule Id like to see for making the playoffs is if a team has already played and lost to any other playoff team during the season they are done and out of playoff contention
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 09, 2023, 07:31:25 AM
You're ignoring WHY they're not as well funded. 

They aren't well funded because the rules don't make that an incentive. It's not like Alabama is magically richer than other programs. They were really good and got a big fan base and lots of support. It's the same with every other program -FSU and PSU are big based on having the same great coach for thirty years. There aren't many reasons that other programs can't become good and big, other than the rules don't provide any way for small programs to become big programs and in fact actively block it. 

To put it a different way - there is no reason based in sports or competitiveness that puts Rutgers in the Big Ten over Cincinnati. Those decisions are based in money and contracts and largely driven now by television networks. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 09, 2023, 07:33:32 AM
And I've made zero comments about suggesting what's good for networks is good for college football.  You're inventing shit.  What's good for college football is actual competition, not pretending TCU is a deserving playoff team.  Beat Kansas State, bro!

I want the best 2 deserving teams to play for the championship.  I want every game among the top teams to count.  Why did they bother playing the Big 12 CG in 2022?!?  The ramifications of the outcome were fuck-all.
Answer that.
Alabama-LSU suffered the same problem and largely ended the BCS. Alabama still won a championship in the playoff era despite not even qualifying for their championship game. How is this a new problem? Oklahoma got destroyed in their championship game and still made the BC game. It's not a new problem.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: bayareabadger on September 09, 2023, 08:09:53 AM
A direct statement I can make that might help out with your comprehension and understanding is this:

it's a lot about before the game begins - no team should win a national championship on a huge upset.

Is that actually inflammatory?
Am I nuts??

Biggest NCG upsets since the beginning of the BCS:
+11 - OSU, 2002
+7 - Florida, 2006....Texas, 2005....LSU, 2003
+6.5 - Clemson, 2016
.
And I'll stop there. 
National championship games should have a big bouncer at the door, a spike strip in the parking lot, and surrounded by the walls of Troy.
Only big swinging dick programs with impressive schedules need apply. 
Why?
Because outside of 1 season, everyone we thought had no chance HAD no chance.
ND in 2012.  Destroyed.
FSU was a 10 point dog in 2000.  Didn't score a point on offense.
The Huskers in 2001.  No shot.
TCU....give me a break.
.
I want 2 teams that will have big days on Day 1 of the NFL draft.  I want great HCs and battle-tested teams. 
I believe there were like 6-7 different teams that would have had better odds vs Bama in 2012.  Everyone knew ND wasn't worthy.  But they had a magical zero in the loss column.  Well, so did Boise a few times.  So did Tulane in '98.  So what? 

A five-year old could rank teams by number of losses.  You want to criticize me for what I said about TCU-UM (I still have no idea what I said wrong about it), but YOU'RE the one ignoring TCU's loss to KSU yielding ZERO consequences!  That's bullshit.  Everyone knows it.
We've taken the sport with THE best, most intense regular season and transformed it into a conference championship game outcome being meaningless. 
Fuck that noise.  You can have it.
As I read this, I’m just sort of struck by the hunting for complaints.

this is sports. There are a lot of mismatches and ass kickings. There was no magical moment when they figured out how to engineer the perfect always competitive outcomes. If anything, having a playoff last year made things much more interesting because we got two good games instead of just one bad one.

Oh, and the only upside of the pre-BCS system was that we didn’t really have to live through it with the Internet. If people are put off by “not playing for something” and stacking losses, shoot, that was the game.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2023, 01:53:10 PM
They aren't well funded because the rules don't make that an incentive. It's not like Alabama is magically richer than other programs. They were really good and got a big fan base and lots of support. It's the same with every other program -FSU and PSU are big based on having the same great coach for thirty years. There aren't many reasons that other programs can't become good and big, other than the rules don't provide any way for small programs to become big programs and in fact actively block it.

To put it a different way - there is no reason based in sports or competitiveness that puts Rutgers in the Big Ten over Cincinnati. Those decisions are based in money and contracts and largely driven now by television networks.
This is exhausting.

Look at what you've said.
You complain that it took TCU two decades to navigate and work it's way up.
Here, you recognize that traditional powers had to be good for decades to reap the rewards.  
IT'S NO DIFFERENT.

Duh!!!!!

Separately (yes, separately), the B1G adding Rutgers was stupid and I think everyone here would agree.  In a realignment climate where USC and Texas are moving, the B1G added Rutgers, lol.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2023, 01:54:44 PM
This is exhausting.

Duh!!!!!
not if you let it go
Duh
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2023, 01:55:07 PM
Alabama-LSU suffered the same problem and largely ended the BCS. Alabama still won a championship in the playoff era despite not even qualifying for their championship game. How is this a new problem? Oklahoma got destroyed in their championship game and still made the BC game. It's not a new problem.
I already mentioned that OU team.  I'm not saying it's a new problem, it's the same problem in the newest system.
Are you actually reading my posts?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 09, 2023, 03:03:08 PM
This is exhausting.

Look at what you've said.
You complain that it took TCU two decades to navigate and work it's way up.
Here, you recognize that traditional powers had to be good for decades to reap the rewards. 
IT'S NO DIFFERENT.

It's exhausting for you because you have no point. It didn't take "decades" for FSU to work it's way up. They played in the Orange Bowl in 1980, just four years after Bowden started coaching. My point is that without artificial barriers in place, FSU quickly worked their way to the top of college football after years of being an also-ran, a team that by your logic shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near the top of college football. You keep pretending that college football is a one off every year, when it absolutely isn't. Good programs build over time, and a good system in place should reward good programs. I don't know why anyone would be satisfied with television conference deals determining things over results on the field, but here we are.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2023, 07:55:17 PM
It's exhausting for you because you have no point. It didn't take "decades" for FSU to work it's way up. They played in the Orange Bowl in 1980, just four years after Bowden started coaching. My point is that without artificial barriers in place, FSU quickly worked their way to the top of college football after years of being an also-ran, a team that by your logic shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near the top of college football. You keep pretending that college football is a one off every year, when it absolutely isn't. Good programs build over time, and a good system in place should reward good programs. I don't know why anyone would be satisfied with television conference deals determining things over results on the field, but here we are.
Red + blue ------- who are you debating?  When did I suggest any of that?  Wtf?
FSU scheduled tough and beat the hell out of nearly all the other teams they played.  And they weren't in some 2nd-rate conference.  Your examples/non-examples are invalid.  

Last part - why do you feel the need to say that?  Everyone knows that and no one is suggesting otherwise.  



Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 09, 2023, 08:01:06 PM

Quote
Last part - why do you feel the need to say that?  Everyone knows that and no one is suggesting otherwise.  
But you are!  You're entire point is that the worst thing that can happen in post season college football is that a team like TCU (or Cincinnati before them) could be allowed into the room. That is the exact same position Tv execs have. They want OSU, Bama, Georgia, and Notre Dame every year, maybe rotate in whoever else are in the top markets. Pro sports have large and small markets, but are infinitely more diverse in their postseason compared to college football. 


So when your biggest objection is that the have nots sneaks their way into the postseason, you are 100% aligned with the ESPN execs who want the championship game to be in prime time on Monday night between Ohio State and Georgia.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 03:50:52 AM
If I'm advocating for the playoff to be exclusive for completely different reasons than TV execs, then you're being dishonest by lumping us together.

Both a bee and an airplane can fly, but why the hell would anyone lump the two together?!?  

Go away.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 10, 2023, 07:10:10 AM
If I'm advocating for the playoff to be exclusive for completely different reasons than TV execs, then you're being dishonest by lumping us together.

Both a bee and an airplane can fly, but why the hell would anyone lump the two together?!? 

Go away.
Don't blame me, I voted for Nixon for Good Reasons
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 10, 2023, 07:43:32 AM
No ya didn't you're to young,although what's going on today makes him look like a choir boy 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2023, 11:00:40 AM
Both a bee and an airplane can fly, but why the hell would anyone lump the two together?!? 
Because they both can fly?

They share a common feature,  they also both have wings.  That's about it I think.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2023, 11:47:57 AM
So when your biggest objection is that the have nots sneaks their way into the postseason, you are 100% aligned with the ESPN execs who want the championship game to be in prime time on Monday night between Ohio State and Georgia.
Baptist and bootlegger scenario, my friend. 

The Baptist wants prohibition because they're against alcohol. The bootlegger wants prohibition because it's a lot more lucrative to sell a black market good than a legal good. 

That doesn't mean the Baptist is doing what they're doing in order to seek alignment with the bootlegger's interests.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 11:49:20 AM
Because they both can fly?

They share a common feature,  they also both have wings.  That's about it I think.
Right, I'm not concerned if my wanting the 2 best teams to play for the NC happens to coincide with what TV networks want.  He's acting like I'm their toady or something.  I don't give a shit about TV networks, I care about the best regular season in sports and deserving teams playing to see who's best.
There is a bullshit narrative that if you possess any nuance beyond W/L record, that you want 4-5*-packed teams to play for the NC, regardless of record.  NO ONE HAS EVER SUGGESTED THAT, EVER.
It's not W/L record only.  That's childish.  Schedule matters.  Margin of victory matters.  Good wins AND bad losses matter.  Talent matters. 
Why do I have to apologize for that last one?  TCU can upset a Michigan.  Boise can upset an OU.  Upsets can be fun.  Their rarity makes them special.
Upsets aren't a great idea to determine a champion. 
I understand that sports are entertainment for we the fans, but for the players and coaches, it's competition.  That needs to remain balanced.  Expanded playoffs and Cinderella stories skew it towards entertainment and away from competition. 
Now on TCU, here's where the problem lies.  Ignore all of the above, if you want.  Having them in the playoff is inclusive, right?  But it's a lie.
Here, TCU, beat 2 of UGA, OSU, and UM.  Welcome to the playoff!  You're in!  Celebrate!
I admit, I have no idea how many times a team that is a 7.5 pt underdog in one game and then a 13.5 pt dog in their next game and has won both.  Mathematically, it's .21 x .26 = 5% or so.  Great, right?  TCU had a 5% chance at winning the NC, that's a non-zero number and hugs all around!!
Sorry, no.
I don't want a NCG to be a 95/5 split.  That seems insane to me.  Who wants that? 
Maybe if TCU had beaten K-State, maybe.  The numbers would have been a little better, but still reeeeally bad.
Don't we want NC games to be as close to 50/50 as possible?  Don't we want to avoid foregone conclusions? 
(https://i.imgur.com/MiVER3r.jpg)
It was statistically over before halftime.
This was predictable.
This was the consensus.

Sam likes to pretend that suggesting a more talented team with 1 more loss would be an outrageous crime against the baby Jesus if you included it in the playoff over TCU. 
All I'm honestly pining for is choosing the playoff teams based on the most amount of data and evidence possible. 

I don't want conference championships games to be literally meaningless. 
I don't want teams seeded to avoid rematches.
I want the best, most qualified teams playing to determine a champion. 
This isn't the space for inclusive feel-good stories.  It's for competition.  You know, being competitive.

I know, I know, TCU's game vs Michigan was great fun.  It was close in the end.  It got the people going!
It was a big upset.  Big upsets rarely (if ever) happen 2 games in a row. Every eyeball watching that game saw UM playing poorly.  Performing like dogshit.  Especially the UM eyeballs.  TCU, despite having played close games vs lesser teams, played extremely well.  They showed up.  They did great.  They had to.  If TCU had played like dogshit, would they have only lost by score like UM did?  No.  They'd lose badly.  Something like 65-7.  That's the "played with their hair on fire" phrasing comes from.  TCU played better than they had shown and UM played worse.  Kudos to TCU for that.  The won.  I'm not trying to take that away from them.
But to pretend like it wasn't a big upset is dishonest.  Why is that a naughty thing to say?  I simply don't understand it. 

Teams don't/can't perform so much better than they've shown 2 games in a row.  I am 100% sure there are exceptions, but frankly, I'm too busy focusing on the 99.7% of the time the exceptions don't happen.  Sue me.

Yes, Alabama should have been in over TCU.  Or Tennessee.  Or USC.  Hell, USC had a better argument, as they only lost to 1 team.  Clemson would have been a better playoff participant than TCU.
No, all of them wouldn't have beaten UM.  Maybe none of them would.  But all of them would have a better (much better) than 5% chance at winning the NC.  Not because I jerk off to helmet teams.  Not because I have a secret shrine to TV networks complete w/ a hair doll. 

But simply because they'd be a more accurate champion.  A more likely to be the actual best team, even though we can never truly know that. 













Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 11:51:10 AM
The percentages used are from data from 1997-2013, including 11,000 games (22K+ outcomes).
(https://i.imgur.com/qLSiC25.jpg)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2023, 12:03:28 PM
All playoffs generate a "playoff champion", all of them.  None are really intended to reward the "best team", though it happens of course.  The "best team" will likely NOT win three games in a row against upper level teams.  Some here prefer the old bowl system with its idiosyncracies, including me.

What I prefer of course is perhaps amusing but hardly relevant, we havea playoff in CFB and that won't change, though the design of course will.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 12:08:13 PM
All playoffs generate a "playoff champion", all of them.  None are really intended to reward the "best team", though it happens of course.  The "best team" will likely NOT win three games in a row against upper level teams.  Some here prefer the old bowl system with its idiosyncracies, including me.

What I prefer of course is perhaps amusing but hardly relevant, we havea playoff in CFB and that won't change, though the design of course will.
Absolutely right.
But a playoff can more likely reward the "best team."  That's really all I'm advocating for.  Making that attempt.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2023, 12:12:11 PM
Bama attempted to beat Texas yesterday too ...
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 12:48:32 PM
As long as everyone tried their best.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2023, 12:53:43 PM
As the outcomes have no more impact on me than I allow them to have, I go with the flow realizing I have no infuence over any of it.  If "they" want a 128 game playoff, so be it, I'll respond accordingly with things I can control.

Money drives all of this (duh) and that won't change.

It's entertainment, if it's not, don't pay attention.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 10, 2023, 01:00:10 PM

Quote
Teams don't/can't perform so much better than they've shown 2 games in a row.  I am 100% sure there are exceptions, but frankly, I'm too busy focusing on the 99.7% of the time the exceptions don't happen.  Sue me.
I would say that's my major problem with your viewpoint. You say competition matters, but in reality, you would take a losing team over a winning team if they have better recruiting rankings, all for "accuracy." It's the same with the playoff committee, so it's not an unpopular view. 


My major problem with college football is too many poindexters thinking they know best, when it would be much easier, more fun, and more fair to let them decide it on the field.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 01:03:04 PM
I would say that's my major problem with your viewpoint. You say competition matters, but in reality, you would take a losing team over a winning team if they have better recruiting rankings, all for "accuracy."
This can't possibly be the takeaway from my post above.  I refuse to believe you read it and think this.  It's impossible.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 10, 2023, 01:05:33 PM
This can't possibly be the takeaway from my post above.  I refuse to believe you read it and think this.  It's impossible.
All I'm honestly pining for is choosing the playoff teams based on the most amount of data and evidence possible. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 10, 2023, 01:16:51 PM

That doesn't mean the Baptist is doing what they're doing in order to seek alignment with the bootlegger's interests.

Ya well Baptists don't recognize the Pope or each other in the Liquor store either
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 05:26:27 PM



And you quote me not saying anything like what you said.

Might as well be typing Chinese, ffs.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2023, 07:00:55 PM
Maybe the problem is not with his interpretation.  If folks consistently misinterpret what I meant, I try and do better to be more clear.  It works better than just saying "That's not what I meant."

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 07:23:00 PM
Maybe the problem is not with his interpretation.  If folks consistently misinterpret what I meant, I try and do better to be more clear.  It works better than just saying "That's not what I meant."


I took the time to type out lengthy, segmented post expressing and re-expressing the simple idea, including images and statistics.
The last thing I need is your confused self joining in with him.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 10, 2023, 07:29:45 PM
I took the time to type out lengthy, segmented post expressing and re-expressing the simple idea, including images and statistics.
The last thing I need is your confused self joining in with him.
You outright said:

"It's not W/L record only.  That's childish.  Schedule matters.  Margin of victory matters.  Good wins AND bad losses matter.  Talent matters."

That obviously refers to recruiting rankings. Then when I say you want to include recruiting rankings in who gets invited to the playoffs, you claim no one understands you and you might as well be speaking Chinese. 

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/UHEKI6FICUSIw/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 10, 2023, 07:58:49 PM
While we’re reforming CFB it would be a good time to get rid of the polls. We don’t need them anymore, no more beauty pageants. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2023, 08:01:40 PM
so, git rid of the selection committee as well
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 08:13:52 PM
You outright said:

"It's not W/L record only.  That's childish.  Schedule matters.  Margin of victory matters.  Good wins AND bad losses matter.  Talent matters."

That obviously refers to recruiting rankings. Then when I say you want to include recruiting rankings in who gets invited to the playoffs, you claim no one understands you and you might as well be speaking Chinese.


And you're the one looking at a LIST and only cherry-picking one thing from it, then straw-manning me by only mentioning that one thing.
You're a dishonest interlocutor. 
Stop wasting our time, friend.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 10, 2023, 08:49:14 PM
so, git rid of the selection committee as well
(https://i.imgur.com/W4jtS4I.jpg)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 10, 2023, 08:57:49 PM
And you're the one looking at a LIST and only cherry-picking one thing from it, then straw-manning me by only mentioning that one thing.
You're a dishonest interlocutor. 
Stop wasting our time, friend.
I don't know what your complaint is. Your biggest problem is that TCU made the postseason when they apparently didn't deserve it, based presumably on their recruiting rankings being far below Georgia's. We all get that. I understand it. You want only the best teams to be playing for a championship. I get it. I understand.

My point is that by using all this "extra data," we are cheapening the actual results on the field, and year over year incentivizing the same five teams being the only relevant ones year after year. Without certain ways for every team to get into the playoffs, or get into the upper echelon of the sport, we are creating artificial barriers which hurt the programs and hurt the sport. It is more important that every team has access to the big money and the championships by what they do on the field, not in backroom deals and invitational tournaments. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2023, 09:19:16 PM
I don't know what your complaint is. Your biggest problem is that TCU made the postseason when they apparently didn't deserve it, based presumably on their recruiting rankings being far below Georgia's. We all get that. I understand it. You want only the best teams to be playing for a championship. I get it. I understand.
Please stop typing this.  You don't understand.  You have no desire to understand.  You're dishonest.  Move on.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 10, 2023, 09:31:56 PM
Please stop typing this.  You don't understand.  You have no desire to understand.  You're dishonest.  Move on.
Your actual position is a mystery. Quote you? I never said that. Refer to prior posts? Unfair. This is Trumpian levels of pretend. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2023, 12:28:04 AM
It's a mystery to you.  You are blind.  Move on.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2023, 08:05:20 AM
If I feel misunderstood, I try and clarify my position rather than complaining about being misunderstood.

That is, if I had a position in the first place.

Polls will stay as long as people remain interested in them.  If we don't use a committee, what do we use?  It's akin to saying get rid of the NCAA, and then it would crop back up under another name, with the same function, and ills.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2023, 08:11:13 AM
instead of a committee we could use conference champs or something that doesn't require an "eye test" or subjective opinion
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2023, 08:20:56 AM
Which conferences?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2023, 08:29:49 AM
There is no "Perfect System" of course.  And going to 12 will generate more controversy, not less.  It's part of life.  I think given that the committee is the best option, coupled with mandatory conference champs being included (and that one will have outages sooner or later).

They do need to fix the clause about including six CCs in the 12 team playoff now.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2023, 08:38:56 AM
depends on how many teams you want in the playoff

I suppose we are stuck with 12

SEC East champ
SEC West champ
B1G East champ
B1G West champ
PAC champ
Big 12 champ
ACC champ
AAC champ
USA champ
Mountain champ
Mid-American champ
Sun Belt champ

I'd rather have 4

SEC champ
B1G champ
Big 12 champ
ACC champ
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2023, 09:08:56 AM
They won't go backwards on numbers, and they won't include more than one G5 CC.  I would be happier with six, but that too won't happen either.  I try and live with what is rather than what I'd prefer.  Anyway, the rich do get richer most of the time.

I've pointed out before how the Truly Wealthy don't care what the top marginal INCOME tax rate might be.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2023, 09:14:23 AM
yep, we're going to continue the subjective opinions as well, but it's interesting to think about
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 11, 2023, 07:16:47 PM
I mean there's no central body that can order the polls to cease.  If you don't like them just ignore them.  In my opinion they're one of the unique and interesting things about college football so I wouldn't ever really wish for them to go away. 

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2023, 08:20:35 PM
Which conferences?
Great question.

If you want to take the P4 conf champs, you've got 2 insanely strong conferences and 2 "others."
Which means 2 have a tough road to the playoff and 2 have an easy one.  

Objective my ass.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 11, 2023, 08:57:59 PM
Great question.

If you want to take the P4 conf champs, you've got 2 insanely strong conferences and 2 "others."
Which means 2 have a tough road to the playoff and 2 have an easy one. 

Objective my ass.
Why can't teams from the strong conferences join the weaker ones? Seems an extremely easy solution.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2023, 10:26:06 PM
Why can't teams from the strong conferences join the weaker ones? Seems an extremely easy solution.
Okay, let's run a race.

You have to run 100m and I'll run 70. 
No?
Why not?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: bayareabadger on September 11, 2023, 11:49:03 PM
Okay, let's run a race.

You have to run 100m and I'll run 70.
No?
Why not?
That is some word salad of a response. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: bayareabadger on September 11, 2023, 11:50:21 PM
I mean there's no central body that can order the polls to cease.  If you don't like them just ignore them.  In my opinion they're one of the unique and interesting things about college football so I wouldn't ever really wish for them to go away.


As I've gotten older, I've grown more fascinated with the fact that they don't count and many people just cannot ignore them in a real way. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2023, 07:52:05 AM
the polls are interesting if you've got a dog in the fight
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 12, 2023, 08:02:56 AM
Okay, let's run a race.

You have to run 100m and I'll run 70.
No?
Why not?
What other gems have you mined for the congregation today? He didn't suggest anything remotely close to that,are you taking peyote buttons and playing with ouija boards again? :cheer:
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2023, 08:34:44 AM
Folks do find polls interesting.  They complain about them, of course, they think their team should be 11th instead of that ridiculous 14th.  It's another aspect of entertainment.  I don't even know where UGA is ranked.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2023, 08:36:48 AM
I don't know when they started but I see ESPN now ranks baseball teams (MLB).  It gets amusing when some team barely makes the playoffs as a WC and then "gets hot" and runs the table and they sorta have to move them from 8th to first when clearly they are not that great.

But they are the playoff champions ... of the world.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: longhorn320 on September 12, 2023, 09:54:33 AM
I don't know when they started but I see ESPN now ranks baseball teams (MLB).  It gets amusing when some team barely makes the playoffs as a WC and then "gets hot" and runs the table and they sorta have to move them from 8th to first when clearly they are not that great.

But they are the playoff champions ... of the world.
youre starting to sound like OAM
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2023, 10:12:36 AM
Well, I get his "point" (which is obvious, and could be stated more clearly and obviously of course).  Any playoff generates a playoff champion, nothing more, except money of course.  Statistically, a playoff champion will not be the "best team" if the playoff incorporates more than four teams.

Even at four, it's only close to 50-50.

Vegas is pretty good at setting odds, one way to select playoff participants is to have "them" lay odds on hypothetical games and choose that way.  Last year for example, Alabama would be heavily favored over TCU.  The four best teams were probably the three chosen and Bama.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 12, 2023, 11:10:25 AM
As I've gotten older, I've grown more fascinated with the fact that they don't count and many people just cannot ignore them in a real way.
Oh, but they do count.  In the old days (BCS era and before) they definitely counted, and USC/LSU and Neb/Mich can attest that they counted.  Hell, UCF still counts theirs.  

What I'm getting at is we should place less emphasis on the polls.  When they preview a game, it should only be something like 2-0 Alabama vs 2-0 Texas, or 4-2 Auburn vs 6-0 LSU.  The media should do away with presenting the polls as some kind of rock of Gibraltar stereotype.  I realize that it is asking a lot, but if we're truly going to go to a 12 team playoff, or more, what real reason do the polls serve?  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2023, 11:38:24 AM
Polls serve to entertaing, garner clicks, and make money.  They won't go away.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: bayareabadger on September 12, 2023, 11:44:41 AM
Oh, but they do count.  In the old days (BCS era and before) they definitely counted, and USC/LSU and Neb/Mich can attest that they counted.  Hell, UCF still counts theirs. 

What I'm getting at is we should place less emphasis on the polls.  When they preview a game, it should only be something like 2-0 Alabama vs 2-0 Texas, or 4-2 Auburn vs 6-0 LSU.  The media should do away with presenting the polls as some kind of rock of Gibraltar stereotype.  I realize that it is asking a lot, but if we're truly going to go to a 12 team playoff, or more, what real reason do the polls serve? 
The AP poll hasn’t counted since 2004. The BCS died a decade ago. No poll even put UCF No. 1. Even the CFP rankings are just silly filler. Every poll that has come out since 2014 is functionally for funzies (for us)


But you’re talking about the media doing away with presenting them in such a way. First, I don’t think it’s presented has hard and fast. It’s just for hype. And that’s the issue. The polls exist for two main reasons: they allow channels to hype games and people really, really consume them. So the producers keep making them. The only way to make that stop is to stop demanding polls by caring about them. If everyone gave them an “oh, that’s nice, whatever,” they’d start drying up and fading away.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: bayareabadger on September 12, 2023, 11:45:47 AM
I don't know when they started but I see ESPN now ranks baseball teams (MLB).  It gets amusing when some team barely makes the playoffs as a WC and then "gets hot" and runs the table and they sorta have to move them from 8th to first when clearly they are not that great.

But they are the playoff champions ... of the world.
They’ve done that for a long, long time. At least as power ratings. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2023, 12:00:34 PM
I think the "Average Fan" likes rankings (I should start a thread about stupid rankings...).  Fans of teams that received votes but didn't make 25 are looking up hoping X Y and Z lose and they beat Q badly enough to slide up to 18, or 21.  Then there is the claim your team ended ranked 18 of the last 20 seasons, or beat 3 ranked (at the time) teams that season.  The last one is absurd of course.  "Hey, we beat 5 ranked teams (3 of which ended up with losing records and another ended up 7-5)."

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 12, 2023, 01:33:44 PM
youre starting to sound like OAM
You take that back
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 12, 2023, 04:14:29 PM
The AP poll hasn’t counted since 2004. The BCS died a decade ago. No poll even put UCF No. 1. Even the CFP rankings are just silly filler. Every poll that has come out since 2014 is functionally for funzies (for us)


But you’re talking about the media doing away with presenting them in such a way. First, I don’t think it’s presented has hard and fast. It’s just for hype. And that’s the issue. The polls exist for two main reasons: they allow channels to hype games and people really, really consume them. So the producers keep making them. The only way to make that stop is to stop demanding polls by caring about them. If everyone gave them an “oh, that’s nice, whatever,” they’d start drying up and fading away.
There is more than one poll, and some put UCF at #1.  The polls may not count directly toward anything but don't tell me they have a huge indirect influence on the overall status quo WRT College Football, helmet teams, etc.  
The polls are kinda like paper money. On their own, they're worthless.  But because of social agreement between you and me and the US gov't we accept it for payment.  

We don't need the polls anymore, they serve no purpose other than tradition and CFB is about the only place they are even used.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2023, 08:39:31 PM
I don't know when they started but I see ESPN now ranks baseball teams (MLB).  
Oh god, there is nothing more stupid than MLB power ratings.....in September.
As if the 150 games doesn't provide it.  
Vapid.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2023, 08:42:41 PM
What other gems have you mined for the congregation today? He didn't suggest anything remotely close to that,are you taking peyote buttons and playing with ouija boards again? :cheer:
Great, 2 more of you are being oblivious.

Okay, the premise was that the 4 conf champs of the SEC, B1G, ACC, and XII get in the playoff.
2 of them are champions of very strong leagues and the other 2 are champions of weak leagues.
The 2 weak league champs had an easier path to the playoff than the strong league champs.

That is akin to their running 70m (easier) vs 100m (tougher).
Sorry, I have to spell out things for kids all day.  Doing it for adults in my free time isn't fun (honestly, not a shot at you, just a fact).
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 12, 2023, 09:03:56 PM
Great, 2 more of you are being oblivious.

Okay, the premise was that the 4 conf champs of the SEC, B1G, ACC, and XII get in the playoff.
2 of them are champions of very strong leagues and the other 2 are champions of weak leagues.
The 2 weak league champs had an easier path to the playoff than the strong league champs.

That is akin to their running 70m (easier) vs 100m (tougher).
Sorry, I have to spell out things for kids all day.  Doing it for adults in my free time isn't fun (honestly, not a shot at you, just a fact).
The question was: why can't the teams in the strong leagues move to the weaker leagues, leading to four balanced leagues?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2023, 09:26:48 PM
The question was: why can't the teams in the strong leagues move to the weaker leagues, leading to four balanced leagues?
Oh!  
My mistake.

Because that has never happened, ever.  

:88:
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2023, 01:02:35 AM
The question was: why can't the teams in the strong leagues move to the weaker leagues, leading to four balanced leagues?
They can.

But they won't.

Because $$$$. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 13, 2023, 07:46:53 AM
Or remember when BC,VT and Miami all - very good programs at the time moved the ACC? Many/most (myself included) thought along with a dominant FSU those teams could very well rule the CFB roost.And that fizzled out but gave rise to Clemson - who saw any of that coming? Or the dominant run of the Tide - so there will be change
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 07:47:23 AM
I figure if a single person misses my point, it could well be that I didn't express it well, or maybe they just are incapable of understanding it.

When a host of people do it, consistently, I figure I am not expressing things well at all.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 13, 2023, 07:50:09 AM
Great, 2 more of you are being oblivious.
Run Forest Run! There was actually 3 questioning your post but who's counting. Great so others who don't recoginize what you perceive as unriveled intelligence are oblivious?Fetching

Okay, the premise was that the 4 conf champs of the SEC, B1G, ACC, and XII get in the playoff.
2 of them are champions of very strong leagues and the other 2 are champions of weak leagues.
The 2 weak league champs had an easier path to the playoff than the strong league champs.
Define weak - by what metric? Before Ohio St played Alabama after the '14 season 47 of 48 of ESPNs "Expert" analasysts had the Tide winning - 47 of 48. For a 2 week period that season the committee and they had all top 4 teams from the SEC.Not Fla St,not Oregon,not tOSU - all final play off participants.So you swallowing their narrative whole shows you belong with the sheeple.

That is akin to their running 70m (easier) vs 100m (tougher).
Sorry, I have to spell out things for kids all day.  Doing it for adults in my free time isn't fun (honestly, not a shot at you, just a fact).
No that's akin to you realizing hallucinations again.And I don't care what you do during the day in here - you spray graffiti at least as much as you spell anything out,so let's just move on.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2023, 07:51:42 AM
Just because something hasn't happened before, ever, doesn't mean that it couldn't happen or won't happen 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 07:55:04 AM
Something VERY unlikely to happen is a good program going to another conference to make less money.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 13, 2023, 08:01:47 AM
But how long do they stay good? Just look to Miami/FSU - changing Tide now? There will be change that is guaranteed

Edit: OK FF Nebraska too
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2023, 08:03:27 AM
Agreed 

They may move to another conference if the money was equal or better. 

Networks in their greed could reshape conferences by region to promote better games and therefore content.

Also more equal competition for playoff spots 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2023, 08:04:33 AM
beat 3 ranked (at the time) teams that season.  The last one is absurd of course.  "Hey, we beat 5 ranked teams (3 of which ended up with losing records and another ended up 7-5)."
That one bothers me too. I think most of us in here avoid that and:


My other problem with it though is that it creates a false dichotomy where all ranked teams are one class and all unranked teams are another. That is false because #25 and #26 are obviously more similar to each other than they are to either #1 or #130.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2023, 08:04:37 AM
Only Ohio state stays good forever 

And that could change 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 13, 2023, 08:09:59 AM


(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgflip.com%2F34o5qg.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=4874eb2a4693042f10736eb1afc061e9d4e0150ae039399e0f1b1154e2152f9b&ipo=images)
(https://i.imgflip.com/34o5qg.jpg)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2023, 08:11:15 AM
  • When talking about the current season refer to teams ranked in the latest poll.
Final poll is the only one that counts 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2023, 08:14:21 AM
#1 in the poll means something 

Top 5
Top 10

I preferred the polls limited to the top 20

No need to water it down with another 5 and others receiving is irrelevant 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 08:19:15 AM
My reason for looking at polls preseason is to see a "Kansas State" at 15 or whatever and thinking that is a surprise, then realizing they did well last season.

The Top Three nearly always finish in the Top Ten.  The next seven usually finish ranked with one or two that flail and drop out.  The next ten is probably 50% gonna finish ranked.

There is no final CFP poll, just AP and Coaches and whoever.  There COULD be a time when the AP final poll doesn't have the playoff winner at Number One.  It's possible.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2023, 08:41:36 AM
MrNubbz:
(https://i.imgur.com/jmcSVnN.jpg)



Correct.
The original one.......plus 2 MORE. 
That makes 3.

This is a perfect example of the problem you don't believe exists.  Exhibit A.  Thank you!!!!
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2023, 08:42:34 AM
I figure if a single person misses my point, it could well be that I didn't express it well, or maybe they just are incapable of understanding it.

When a host of people do it, consistently, I figure I am not expressing things well at all.
Or it's like explaining evolution to a few illiterate goat-herders.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 09:02:09 AM
Or it's like explaining evolution to a few illiterate goat-herders.
I am of the opinion that nearly everyone here is literate and pretty smart, else we would go elsewhere.  I think some folks here are very smart, maybe most folks, probably smarter than I am (which isn't a high bar).  If I thought folks here were on the intellectual level of "illiterate goat herders" (who might be smart also, just ignorant), I'd move elsewhere to a site more in keeping with what I perceived as my own massive intellect.



Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 09:16:35 AM
They can.

But they won't.

Because $$$$.
Maybe - the money is currently being sent to conferences for whatever reason to split. That is a major source of revenue, but it isn't the only source. Being in the postseason on a regular basis could also, theoretically, improve a team's revenue. In any event, without any sort of automatic qualifier, there isn't much incentive to be in other leagues, so I wouldn't just conclude that.

Also, the NFL merged with the weaker AFL and that seemed to work out.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 09:18:42 AM
Or it's like explaining evolution to a few illiterate goat-herders.
The biggest problem is that you think I or anyone else don't understand your point. We understand, and when we make a counterpoint, you just huff off.

I get that the SEC, currently, is a very strong conference and a playoff that rewards teams not in the SEC is unfair to the stronger teams. The question is whether grouping all the strong teams together and dumping every other program is good or entertaining, and if not, can it be changed.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2023, 10:06:40 AM
Maybe - the money is currently being sent to conferences for whatever reason to split. That is a major source of revenue, but it isn't the only source. Being in the postseason on a regular basis could also, theoretically, improve a team's revenue. In any event, without any sort of automatic qualifier, there isn't much incentive to be in other leagues, so I wouldn't just conclude that.

Also, the NFL merged with the weaker AFL and that seemed to work out.
Well, the money is not necessarily causative, but correlates with a lot of other positives. Some of which might go away if you move to a weaker conference. 

I.e. I posted upthread about my previous lament that Darrell Hazell was recruiting at a MAC level. In truth, when I started looking at recruiting classes, his teams on paper would DOMINATE the MAC. The worst recruiting program in the B1G over that 4 year stretch and it was FAR better than anything in the MAC. 

So you might ask--why does Purdue get its teeth kicked in repeatedly in the B1G instead of dropping down, and then kicking ass and taking names in the MAC? 

Well the answer, in addition to all the money of course, is that if Purdue dropped down to the MAC, they'd start recruiting like a MAC team instead of a B1G team. Purdue recruits know they're going to play in big games on national TV, even if they're likely to lose them. MAC recruits, well, don't, unless it's an annual paycheck game to get your teeth kicked in by a B1G team. 

That's a more stark example than say a B1G or SEC team moving to the B12 or ACC, of course. But programs move up for aspirational reasons when the opportunities arise, not down to beat up on weaker competition. Because teams often rise or fall to the level of what's around them. If Penn State left the B1G and moved to the ACC or B12 to have a better chance of winning their conference, would they still recruit like Penn State? 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 13, 2023, 10:08:46 AM
MrNubbz:
(https://i.imgur.com/jmcSVnN.jpg)



Correct.
The original one.......plus 2 MORE.
That makes 3.

This is a perfect example of the problem you don't believe exists.  Exhibit A.  Thank you!!!!
The amusement continues, your scandel of the glands is acting up again. You didn't state that,leaving that little tid bit out which would make US left to assume and that's strictly a bridge you haunt. Care to address the 3rd then if it's not to difficult? Enough of this nonsense you're dragging us down to your level and winning with experience - your right about one thing gets Irksome educating adults also,Thank You
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 12:24:06 PM
Well, the money is not necessarily causative, but correlates with a lot of other positives. Some of which might go away if you move to a weaker conference.

I.e. I posted upthread about my previous lament that Darrell Hazell was recruiting at a MAC level. In truth, when I started looking at recruiting classes, his teams on paper would DOMINATE the MAC. The worst recruiting program in the B1G over that 4 year stretch and it was FAR better than anything in the MAC.

So you might ask--why does Purdue get its teeth kicked in repeatedly in the B1G instead of dropping down, and then kicking ass and taking names in the MAC?

Well the answer, in addition to all the money of course, is that if Purdue dropped down to the MAC, they'd start recruiting like a MAC team instead of a B1G team. Purdue recruits know they're going to play in big games on national TV, even if they're likely to lose them. MAC recruits, well, don't, unless it's an annual paycheck game to get your teeth kicked in by a B1G team.

That's a more stark example than say a B1G or SEC team moving to the B12 or ACC, of course. But programs move up for aspirational reasons when the opportunities arise, not down to beat up on weaker competition. Because teams often rise or fall to the level of what's around them. If Penn State left the B1G and moved to the ACC or B12 to have a better chance of winning their conference, would they still recruit like Penn State?
Certainly, there are lots of factors to consider when changing conferences. My point is that right now, there is almost no benefit to switching conferences except for the amount of money coming in from the conference. If you change up the incentives a bit, then the behavior of the various schools may also change. To put it a different way, having an invitational only playoff means it doesn't much matter what conference you are in - you can get invited from any conference. So the conference affiliation is only determined by who gives you the most money. If you get money AND a playoff spot (and theoretically, a percentage of the playoff money) then you have additional incentives to make a conference affiliation.

There is no reason to be in the MAC right now other than no one else will take you. But if the MAC was guaranteed a playoff spot, Purdue might take a lot longer look at them.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2023, 12:45:15 PM
Certainly, there are lots of factors to consider when changing conferences. My point is that right now, there is almost no benefit to switching conferences except for the amount of money coming in from the conference. If you change up the incentives a bit, then the behavior of the various schools may also change. To put it a different way, having an invitational only playoff means it doesn't much matter what conference you are in - you can get invited from any conference. So the conference affiliation is only determined by who gives you the most money. If you get money AND a playoff spot (and theoretically, a percentage of the playoff money) then you have additional incentives to make a conference affiliation.

There is no reason to be in the MAC right now other than no one else will take you. But if the MAC was guaranteed a playoff spot, Purdue might take a lot longer look at them.

Given that for every school and every conference, football is the primary revenue driver by a huge margin and is used to support all of the other sports, then the amount of money associated with that playoff spot would have to equal or exceed the amount of money the B1G is paying to Purdue right now.  Because I highly doubt that the Purdue athletic department is running in the black.  Every dime that comes in, is spent on the annual athletic budget.

But if the above were true, then it would also mean that an Ohio State that makes the playoff, would not only be getting that huge playoff money, but they'd also still be getting their share of the B1G contract money.  So they'd be making something like double what Purdue is getting.  No school is going to make that move.

As always, the main sticking point is that we're not just talking about football teams here.  We're talking about entire athletic departments that support 10-20 other sports, none of which make enough money to prop up the rest.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2023, 12:53:34 PM
Certainly, there are lots of factors to consider when changing conferences. My point is that right now, there is almost no benefit to switching conferences except for the amount of money coming in from the conference. If you change up the incentives a bit, then the behavior of the various schools may also change. To put it a different way, having an invitational only playoff means it doesn't much matter what conference you are in - you can get invited from any conference. So the conference affiliation is only determined by who gives you the most money. If you get money AND a playoff spot (and theoretically, a percentage of the playoff money) then you have additional incentives to make a conference affiliation.

There is no reason to be in the MAC right now other than no one else will take you. But if the MAC was guaranteed a playoff spot, Purdue might take a lot longer look at them.
I think prior to the 12-team playoff, teams were moving UP in conference difficulty in exchange for access. In the 4-team playoff we were already seeing the PAC and the B12 champs as potential to be left out or have a higher bar to clear than the B1G/SEC champs, and a non-champ from those leagues was probably never going to have a chance at the 4-team playoff. I'd argue that this, in addition to the issue of money, may have spurred TX/OU and USC/UCLA to announce their moves when they did. (Admittedly, I don't recall the exact timing of that compared to announcement of the 12-team playoff with conference champs getting automatically included. I could be wrong on the timing here.)

But I still think that a team looks at the long term and not the short term. Take money out of the equation and grant an auto-bid to the MAC, and I still don't think Purdue or any current B1G school considers them. Because 10 years into being a MAC team, the recruiting advantage of being a B1G school is gone, and then you're just another MAC team. 

Now, if you *really* change the incentives, maybe it changes. Such as:



Now, if you do that, nobody will care what conference they're in. Teams would probably prefer to be the bigger fish in a weaker conference. 

But if you do that, you also kill CFB as it's just a minor-league version of the NFL. 

Granted, they're killing CFB already, so it doesn't matter. This will just accelerate the demise. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2023, 12:54:58 PM
There is no final CFP poll, just AP and Coaches and whoever.  There COULD be a time when the AP final poll doesn't have the playoff winner at Number One.  It's possible.
Even if we stayed with a 4-team model forever, I strongly doubt this would ever happen.

I know it happened once in the BCS era but the 4-team CFP introduced two key differences:


It happened with the BCS in 2003. In the last pre-bowl AP Poll the two BCSNCG participants were #2 LSU and #3 Oklahoma. So in the bowls LSU's win over Oklahoma wasn't obviously more impressive than #1 USC's win over #4 Michigan. If that had occurred during the CFP era, USC would have been a CFP participant so it would have been a moot point.

The closest we came during the CFP era was in the very first iteration when there were six undefeated or one-loss P5 Champions. At the bottom of that group (AP Poll rankings):
Even if Baylor had won, the victory would have been over a team from #5 tOSU's conference that tOSU also defeated and not as impressive as either of tOSU's wins, let alone both of them.

#6 TCU did win impressively but their win was over a 3-loss (before the bowl) SEC also-ran and that just doesn't measure up to tOSU's win over the SEC Champions even though tOSU's win was much closer. Then, for good measure, tOSU also beat the Pac Champions as well.

I'm not rehashing this to brag on my team. In the CFP era it will always be like this. The CFP Champions have each closed out their seasons with back-to-back wins over very highly ranked teams while the best any non-CFP team can do is to beat just one less impressive opponent.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 13, 2023, 01:09:38 PM

But if you do that, you also kill CFB as it's just a minor-league version of the NFL.

We're kinda doing a good job of that anyway.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 01:16:52 PM
 Here is what COULD happen, someday, with the 12 team concept.  UAB gets in as the 12 seed as the highest ranked G5 conference champ at 11-2.  They play say at UGA and score a HUGE upset as the Dawgs have 4 TOs to none etc.  Then they upset Texas in the final four round by a point, and then they beat Ohio State miraculously.  All highly improbable of course.  The AP poll comes out with Alabama as Number 1 and UAB at 5.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2023, 01:21:34 PM
If you get money AND a playoff spot (and theoretically, a percentage of the playoff money) then you have additional incentives to make a conference affiliation.

There is no reason to be in the MAC right now other than no one else will take you. But if the MAC was guaranteed a playoff spot, Purdue might take a lot longer look at them.
One more thing, and it's one that I think fans of helmet teams fail to understand. 

You've spent your entire fandom thinking about national championships. That's what you play for. 

So you think about a team like Purdue and assume our goal is to make it into a playoff where we challenge for a national title. 

But that's not it. Fans of non-helmet teams largely did NOT think about national championships. Honestly I rarely cared about the MNC at all. Going 8-4 or 9-3 was a successful year. Maybe having a good enough year to have a NYD bowl. Maybe beating Notre Dame (and definitely beating the Hoosiers). We had things to play for that were NOT the NC. 

Or, at least we used to. Now with a 12-team playoff, the playoff is all that matters. And it only matters to about a dozen teams at the top of the sport who can recruit and have legit NC aspirations. Of which mine is not one, so the sport no longer matters to me. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2023, 01:39:17 PM
Here is what COULD happen, someday, with the 12 team concept.  UAB gets in as the 12 seed as the highest ranked G5 conference champ at 11-2.  They play say at UGA and score a HUGE upset as the Dawgs have 4 TOs to none etc.  Then they upset Texas in the final four round by a point, and then they beat Ohio State miraculously.  All highly improbable of course.  The AP poll comes out with Alabama as Number 1 and UAB at 5.
Problem #1 is that you only have them winning three games:
The 12-seed would have to win four games:

So in addition to the three helmets you already have them taking out, they'd need a fourth big win.

Problem #2 is that the chances of pulling off four consecutive stupendous upsets are vanishingly small.

Problem #3 is that if they did all of that I just can't see anyone, not even @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) or I arguing that they didn't deserve the #1 ranking.


I'm very outspoken in making the argument that upsets happen and the best team doesn't always win so in your example I'd probably still be saying that after UAB's road win at Georgia and maybe even after their upset of Texas but once they pulled off a third and then a fourth consecutive upset the numbers just don't work. It becomes more likely that we are wrong than it is that they beat those odds four consecutive times.

Problem #4 is that it would never happen. The playoff and playoff expansion makes it less likely rather than more likely for a non-helmet to win because UGA/TX/tOSU recruit at the highest level and spend the most on coaching, NIL, facilities, etc. They will suffer upsets but the more chances you give themen the more likely they (collectively) are to eventually win.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2023, 01:43:30 PM
Problem #1 is that you only have them winning three games:
  • Georgia
  • Texas
  • Ohio State
The 12-seed would have to win four games:
  • 12 over 5 to get into the final eight
  • 12 over 4 to get to the final four
  • 12 over 1/8/9 to get to the CG
  • 12 over 2/3/6/7/10/11 in the CG

So in addition to the three helmets you already have them taking out, they'd need a fourth big win.

Problem #2 is that the chances of pulling off four consecutive stupendous upsets are vanishingly small.

Problem #3 is that if they did all of that I just can't see anyone, not even @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) or I arguing that they didn't deserve the #1 ranking.


I'm very outspoken in making the argument that upsets happen and the best team doesn't always win so in your example I'd probably still be saying that after UAB's road win at Georgia and maybe even after their upset of Texas but once they pulled off a third and then a fourth consecutive upset the numbers just don't work. It becomes more likely that we are wrong than it is that they beat those odds four consecutive times.

Problem #4 is that it would never happen. The playoff and playoff expansion makes it less likely rather than more likely for a non-helmet to win because UGA/TX/tOSU recruit at the highest level and spend the most on coaching, NIL, facilities, etc. They will suffer upsets but the more chances you give themen the more likely they (collectively) are to eventually win.
Exactly. It's like asking "but what if a 16-seed won the NCAA Tournament?" After all, if they can knock of a 1 seed (which has happened twice now), they can beat anyone in the field, right? 

Theoretically, it can happen. Realistically, it's impossible. 

So it's not really worth thinking about. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 01:46:49 PM
It is highly unlikely.  And I forgot one game, thanks.  Another scenario, more plausible, UGA loses two games earlyish and then does well, but doesn't win the SEC, at 10-2.  They get in the playoff as a 10 seed.  They then beat #8 and so on and end up winning, maybe a couple games with considerable luck.  Would the polls bump them from 8 all the way to 1?  Probably.

Yeah, I can't contrive even a pretty unlikely scenario.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 01:56:40 PM
Given that for every school and every conference, football is the primary revenue driver by a huge margin and is used to support all of the other sports, then the amount of money associated with that playoff spot would have to equal or exceed the amount of money the B1G is paying to Purdue right now.  Because I highly doubt that the Purdue athletic department is running in the black.  Every dime that comes in, is spent on the annual athletic budget.

But if the above were true, then it would also mean that an Ohio State that makes the playoff, would not only be getting that huge playoff money, but they'd also still be getting their share of the B1G contract money.  So they'd be making something like double what Purdue is getting.  No school is going to make that move.

As always, the main sticking point is that we're not just talking about football teams here.  We're talking about entire athletic departments that support 10-20 other sports, none of which make enough money to prop up the rest.
Yeah but the downside of conference sharing is that teams like Ohio State share revenue with teams like Purdue. That was exactly the reason Oklahoma and Texas left the Big 12, because they didn't want to share money when they could join a different conference and make up a bigger share. Leaving things the way they are actively encourages the OSU's and Alabamas to join a super conference. It's almost inevitable - we are effectively down to two super conferences by next year now. So like it or not, schools will be facing tough decisions. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 01:58:22 PM
If we're headed to two "real" super conferences with no Vandys or Purdues or NWs or whoevers, I will probably lose interest.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 02:01:10 PM
One more thing, and it's one that I think fans of helmet teams fail to understand.

You've spent your entire fandom thinking about national championships. That's what you play for.

So you think about a team like Purdue and assume our goal is to make it into a playoff where we challenge for a national title.

But that's not it. Fans of non-helmet teams largely did NOT think about national championships. Honestly I rarely cared about the MNC at all. Going 8-4 or 9-3 was a successful year. Maybe having a good enough year to have a NYD bowl. Maybe beating Notre Dame (and definitely beating the Hoosiers). We had things to play for that were NOT the NC.

Or, at least we used to. Now with a 12-team playoff, the playoff is all that matters. And it only matters to about a dozen teams at the top of the sport who can recruit and have legit NC aspirations. Of which mine is not one, so the sport no longer matters to me.
Well, I understand that, but I think it leads to the opposite conclusion. Purdue may have never had legit national championship aspirations, but could realistically play in the Rose Bowl. There was a reward for having a great season. Now, even though they played in the Big Ten championship as recently as this past season, there isn't much reward, because they were never making the playoffs. If you win the Big Ten and make the playoffs, then Purdue has something to play for until they are mathematically eliminated.

Essentially, I find it hard to believe Purdue fans wouldn't find making the playoffs exciting, even if they don't expect to win a championship. It makes it so having a good season is meaningful again. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 02:06:47 PM
Exactly. It's like asking "but what if a 16-seed won the NCAA Tournament?" After all, if they can knock of a 1 seed (which has happened twice now), they can beat anyone in the field, right?

Theoretically, it can happen. Realistically, it's impossible.

So it's not really worth thinking about.
San Diego State and Florida Atlantic will never play in the Final Four. Laughable to even think of it.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2023, 02:45:18 PM
Yeah but the downside of conference sharing is that teams like Ohio State share revenue with teams like Purdue. That was exactly the reason Oklahoma and Texas left the Big 12, because they didn't want to share money when they could join a different conference and make up a bigger share. Leaving things the way they are actively encourages the OSU's and Alabamas to join a super conference. It's almost inevitable - we are effectively down to two super conferences by next year now. So like it or not, schools will be facing tough decisions.

This isn't exactly true, although the end result is the same.

Not speaking for OU, but from the Texas perspective, sharing the money wasn't the problem.  The problem was simply bringing in FAR less revenue, than any team in the B1G or SEC.  When the disparity was $15-$20M per year, Texas was fine with staying in the B12, because the value of having a simpler, more regional conference made it worthwhile.

But then a couple of years ago, the projections for the B1G and SEC contracts absolutely blew up.  Distributions of $80M-$100M per school were being tossed around, and compared to $40M or $45M in the B12, that disparity just couldn't be ignored.  If Texas had ANY hope to keep up with the Ohio States and Michigans and Alabamas and Georgias, then the only option was to join one of their conferences.  Heck, if Texas wanted to keep up with Northwestern and Vanderbilt, the choice was still the same.  It just became an impossible situation and so the move was inevitable.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2023, 03:50:13 PM
San Diego State and Florida Atlantic will never play in the Final Four. Laughable to even think of it.
I'm pretty sure they weren't 16 seeds.

As @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) pointed out, the 16-seeds now have two upsets of #1 so they are 2-150 in the opening round and 0-2 in the second round despite both #16's to reach the second round getting relatively easier #9's instead of #8's.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 03:54:47 PM
I'm pretty sure they weren't 16 seeds.
No, but they were lower than whatever the 12th team would be in a college football playoff.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 13, 2023, 04:08:50 PM
If we're headed to two "real" super conferences with no Vandys or Purdues or NWs or whoevers, I will probably lose interest.
Those conferences might actually have more competitive contests which would draw ratings - IMO
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2023, 04:25:40 PM
Sure, they probably would, just not me probably.  I'm sure folks would love to see a slate that was OSU/Alabama/Texas ... with no Purdues or Vandys.  They can view that on Sundays now.  And they do.

(I suspect betting is at the core of NFL popularity, as well as NBA/MLB/etc.)

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2023, 04:39:06 PM
(I suspect betting is at the core of NFL popularity, as well as NBA/MLB/etc.)
Fantasy leagues too. If you are in one you end up with a rooting interest in a whole lot of NFL games that you otherwise wouldn't care about. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2023, 07:18:43 PM
No, but they were lower than whatever the 12th team would be in a college football playoff.
Are you sure?
I guess it depends how you measure things. In CFB there are a lot less teams so as a percentage the 12/~130 is ~9%. In CBB there are ~360 teams so as a percentage the 68/~360 is roughly double at 19%.

This is totally anecdotal but it just "feels" to me like the rich-to-poor gap in CFB is bigger then that gap in CBB.

Are the spreads equivalent?

In any case he ( @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) ) specifically said 16 seed and you beat up a strawman by using 5th seeded SDSU and 9th seeded FAU.

Note that in addition to the fact that neither of them were #16 seeds, neither of them actually won either.

It is easy to forget this because making it to a S16 seems like such a big deal (especially to someone like you and I who are fans of a dysfunctional BB program) but remember that it takes six Tournament wins to win an NC:

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2023, 07:33:26 PM
Are you sure?
I guess it depends how you measure things. In CFB there are a lot less teams so as a percentage the 12/~130 is ~9%. In CBB there are ~360 teams so as a percentage the 68/~360 is roughly double at 19%.

This is totally anecdotal but it just "feels" to me like the rich-to-poor gap in CFB is bigger then that gap in CBB.

Are the spreads equivalent?

In any case he ( @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) ) specifically said 16 seed and you beat up a strawman by using 5th seeded SDSU and 9th seeded FAU.

Note that in addition to the fact that neither of them were #16 seeds, neither of them actually won either.

It is easy to forget this because making it to a S16 seems like such a big deal (especially to someone like you and I who are fans of a dysfunctional BB program) but remember that it takes six Tournament wins to win an NC:
  • Making the S16 is only 1/3 of the way there.
  • Making the E8 is only 1/2 way there.
  • Making the F4 (#9 FAU) is only 2/3 of the way.
And I chose the 16-seed thing deliberately. 

CD's example was UAB, a team that in his scenario ONLY made the CFP by virtue of being the top-ranked G5 conference champ. In essence, we're talking about a team that shouldn't be there, but is based on auto-bid.

In the NCAAT example, this would be seeds 13 through 16, with maybe a few 12s mixed in. Teams that really should NOT be there and don't have a chance, but get in based on automatic bids. 

A 13-seed had never even won a second weekend game until 2022 (thanks to Purdue yay!). A 16-seed had never won a round of 64 game until a few years ago (thanks to UVA and Purdue yay!). 

If the goal is to make the CFP a participation trophy much like the NCAAT, then you should make it probably 24 teams (similar to NCAAT as far as percentage of total teams), auto-bid every conference champ, and let in a bunch of P4 teams who finish at 8-4. None of them will win, mind you, but at least "making the playoff" then becomes something of value. Much like the NCAAT, it's still a small cadre of teams that actually have a chance to win, but everyone else can at least say they got to the dance.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 07:43:42 PM

Quote
If the goal is to make the CFP a participation trophy much like the NCAAT, then you should make it probably 24 teams (similar to NCAAT as far as percentage of total teams), auto-bid every conference champ, and let in a bunch of P4 teams who finish at 8-4. None of them will win, mind you, but at least "making the playoff" then becomes something of value. Much like the NCAAT, it's still a small cadre of teams that actually have a chance to win, but everyone else can at least say they got to the dance.  
Maybe, but isn't that exactly what you were saying used to be the case and is now lost under the current rules? Wouldn't having more teams having more to play for liven up pretty much every league and fan base? That good seasons are rewarded substantially and the media pays attention to everyone, not just the half dozen teams with a shot at the playoff? 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 07:51:32 PM

Quote
It is easy to forget this because making it to a S16 seems like such a big deal (especially to someone like you and I who are fans of a dysfunctional BB program) but remember that it takes six Tournament wins to win an NC:
  • Making the S16 is only 1/3 of the way there.
  • Making the E8 is only 1/2 way there.
  • Making the F4 (#9 FAU) is only 2/3 of the way.
Yes! This is exactly my point. I can barely remember who wins the basketball championship year after year. It almost doesn't matter, because college basketball has lots of levels of success. Programs can hang banners for Sweet Sixteens and Final Fours, despite not winning a championship. That, coupled with the fact that every team knows exactly how they can win a championship before the first whistle, makes college basketball have the best postseason in sports by a pretty fair margin. 


I'm not saying that college football needs to copy the tourney. But they should take note that obsessing about winning a championship makes no sense - the goal is get more involvement from more fans for more teams, and the only way to do that is to give everyone something to play for. So, clear paths to the postseason for every team make a heck of a lot more sense than restricting access to the same teams every year. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2023, 08:23:33 PM
Maybe, but isn't that exactly what you were saying used to be the case and is now lost under the current rules? Wouldn't having more teams having more to play for liven up pretty much every league and fan base? That good seasons are rewarded substantially and the media pays attention to everyone, not just the half dozen teams with a shot at the playoff?
Maybe. But we're not there. 

Non-helmets used to gauge their success on w/l record and the level of bowl game they made it to. Success was making it to, and hopefully winning, a meaningless bowl game. It was at least fun and something fans looked forward to. 

Now, non-helmets are mostly shut out of the playoff and are non-factors if they get lucky and make it in a miracle year. And meaningless bowl games are devalued because the playoff has sucked all the oxygen out of the room. 

Maybe in the future the playoff will expand to be its own "participation trophy" like the NCAAT. Where teams view "making the playoff" as a successful season even though they know they have no realistic chance at winning it. They don't "have more to play for". They're not playing for the national championship. They're playing for the prestige of making the dance. The CFP just replaces the bowls. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 08:31:59 PM

Quote
They're playing for the prestige of making the dance. The CFP just replaces the bowls. 
Well, yes. I'm not one that every sport has to resemble another, but there is a reason pretty much every sport everywhere has a playoff like format to determine a champion. It's fair, and it's fun. The bowl system started more or less as an exhibition and sort of sloppily evolved into the college football postseason. It was fun but always kind of stupid.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2023, 09:43:16 PM
I am of the opinion that nearly everyone here is literate and pretty smart, else we would go elsewhere.  I think some folks here are very smart, maybe most folks, probably smarter than I am (which isn't a high bar).  If I thought folks here were on the intellectual level of "illiterate goat herders" (who might be smart also, just ignorant), I'd move elsewhere to a site more in keeping with what I perceived as my own massive intellect.

You took that literally.
Need I say more?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2023, 09:48:48 PM
This thread has devolved to talking about a B1G team joining the MAC and UAB beating 3 helmet teams having elite seasons.

(https://i.imgur.com/VdToF5G.jpg)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2023, 09:56:02 PM
This thread has devolved to talking about a B1G team joining the MAC and UAB beating 3 helmet teams having elite seasons.
(https://i.imgur.com/VdToF5G.jpg)
Four. The three was corrected.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2023, 10:02:36 PM
Four. The three was corrected.
Exactly.    :73:
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2023, 10:25:01 PM
This thread has devolved to talking about a B1G team joining the MAC and UAB beating 3 helmet teams having elite seasons.


Hey, it's an improvement on the previous conversation on how horrible it would be if we don't Maximize Profit for the Shareholders.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 14, 2023, 08:53:08 AM
Yes! This is exactly my point. I can barely remember who wins the basketball championship year after year. It almost doesn't matter, because college basketball has lots of levels of success. Programs can hang banners for Sweet Sixteens and Final Fours, despite not winning a championship. That, coupled with the fact that every team knows exactly how they can win a championship before the first whistle, makes college basketball have the best postseason in sports by a pretty fair margin.


I'm not saying that college football needs to copy the tourney. But they should take note that obsessing about winning a championship makes no sense - the goal is get more involvement from more fans for more teams, and the only way to do that is to give everyone something to play for. So, clear paths to the postseason for every team make a heck of a lot more sense than restricting access to the same teams every year.
Here is the thing.  I have repeatedly used as my examples of the type of fan that I think we are pushing away three people:
The three are somewhat similar in that they are (or at least were) HUGE CFB fans who root for (graduated from) a school that is NOT a helmet nor would I quite call those schools "Helmet adjacent" like an aTm or Clemson.  These are schools for whom winning the NC was never a very realistic possibility.  I have a slight disagreement with beta here as I think that a school like Purdue had a plausible NC chance prior to the BCS where he thinks they had no chance but that disagreement is unimportant because we are talking about something like basically 1/10,000 per generation as opposed to 0 per generation.  In either case, the chance of winning the NC wasn't really driving CFB fandom among PU/MSU/TxTech fans.  


I am of the opinion that losing fans like the three aforementioned guys should be a HUMONGOUS warning sign.  We (on this board) aren't "average".  Most people and even most CFB fans don't spend time even on team message boards let alone conference message boards.  We are the outliers and if changes in the sport are pushing even some of us away, there are issues.  The third example, Utee's friend is similar in that he was a TxTech fan who hosted tailgates, and drove something like 12 hours roundtrip to most TxTech home games, etc.  

Prior to expansion these three guys believed that their teams had "something to play for".  I think I had always kinda assumed that it was that 1/10,000 per generation NC shot but that is probably because I'm a helmet team fan so I think that way.  To us (you and me @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) ) the NC has ALWAYS been a big consideration in our fandom because we root for a team that is regularly in the NC race and has won a few NC's in our lifetimes as well as multiple prior NC's that they old folks talked about when we were kids.  Beta has made it clear in these discussions that his fandom had nothing to do with the miniscule chance that Purdue had at an NC (which he doesn't even believe existed) but he (and ELA and Utee's TxTech friend) DID still follow the sport intensely, why?  Well, it seems based on the "things to play for" that their teams did have such as:
I left NC chance on the list because I still think it existed but I put it last because it obviously wasn't a primary driver for beta nor probably the others.  

So now looking at @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) 's quoted post it just feels silly to me because it feels like we are now trying to give them something (a reason to watch) that they ALREADY had and have only been deprived of because of changes that we made.  Following Max's logic here the best case scenario is that we get back to where we already were.  

Why take the enormous risk of losing guys like the three listed above when the ultimate payoff is no improvement at all?

People have talked about great playoff games and I get that but those aren't really new.  We are simply trading important regular season games for important playoff games.  We haven't actually gained anything.  

In the old days Ohio State's random midseason games were ALL important because a single loss (MSU '98, PU '18, etc) might cost tOSU the NC (or at least a shot at it).  Early in this thread @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) related a story of a bunch of kids literally NONE of whom were tOSU or IU fans stopping what they were doing (backyard football) to run inside and watch because IU was in tied with tOSU.  That type of thing has happend all over the country for decades because for decades EVERY GAME MATTERED.  If Ohio State had an off week and lost to IU that might knock them out of the NC.  If Bama had an off week and lost to MissSt that might knock them out of the NC.  As you expand the playoff you lose that because a single random upset loss no longer has the impact that it used to.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2023, 09:00:39 AM


I like this list.  I sort of follow some FB discussion by Georgia Tech fans (all four of them I think).  Today they aspire to get to a bowl game, any bowl, and holefully upset someone (they seem realistic about this), or even play a rival tough while losing.  Tech students have become more "Asian" over the past decades, and they tend not to care about football.  So the student body has leaned to apathetic and attendance can be dominated by opposing fans (Clemson, UGA).  Tech has decent CFB history, "back in the day", but now are sort of a bottom feeding ACC team, not good, going through coaches.

How can one perk up that situation?  Obviously finding a great coach would be terrific, but the fan base needs some reason to "believe" and view 9-4 as being a really good year.  I suspect most older Tech fans have given up and barely follow the team any more.  Paul Johnson at least gave them a shot with a quirky offense.  I think the program is dying, starved of resources and fan interest.  The new system likely will make it all worse.


Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 09:26:26 AM

Quote
Why take the enormous risk of losing guys like the three listed above when the ultimate payoff is no improvement at all?
Well, I would definitely disagree on their being no improvement. We already killed the big games by making them "data points" instead of games where the results matter. Games should matter! The results should matter. Last year, Michigan and Purdue played in the Big Ten championship. It was a meaningless game, because Michigan still would have enough "data points" to make the playoffs and Purdue had no path even if they won the conference. Meaningless games are what is making the sport bland, and there are far, far too many of them. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 14, 2023, 10:37:36 AM
Well, I would definitely disagree on their being no improvement. We already killed the big games by making them "data points" instead of games where the results matter. Games should matter! The results should matter. Last year, Michigan and Purdue played in the Big Ten championship. It was a meaningless game, because Michigan still would have enough "data points" to make the playoffs and Purdue had no path even if they won the conference. Meaningless games are what is making the sport bland, and there are far, far too many of them.
The argument that @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) and I (and others) have been making since we've been discussing this is that expanding the playoff necessarily diminishes the importance of the individual games before the playoff starts.  Your example of the B1GCG last year being meaningless (the B12CG was as well) is a good one.  Last year's final CFP rankings:

P5 Champs in bold.  

Your implied hypothetical of Michigan losing to Purdue in the B1GCG raises an interesting point, lets look at what the rankings would have been if Purdue had won the B1GCG:


Purdue was 8-4 and unranked heading into the B1GCG but they were 5th among "ORV" and obviously a win over undefeated #2 Michigan would have vaulted them up the rankings.  However, in the final pre-bowl AP and CFP rankings the highest ranked 4-loss team was #16/17 LSU (lost SECCG to #1 UGA) so if Purdue had managed to win the B1GCG I think we can assume that a 9-4 B1G Champ Purdue would have landed roughly where 9-4 SECCG loser LSU was or maybe a little bit higher.  Lets call it #13 ahead of the 3-loss teams but not the 2-loss teams.  

So the rankings would have been something like this:


P5 Champs in bold.  

The hilarity of this is that in this case three of the four CFP participants would have made it in spite of losing their last game.  Two of them (M and TCU) would have lost their last game and not even dropped one spot.  

If I recall correctly, you want to put the champs in and your argument is that this will make the CG's matter.  Ok, but that doesn't actually create more games that matter it simply rearranges which games matter.  Sure, Purdue's and KSU's wins over M and TCU matter more but their four and three prior losses respectively no longer matter.  Similarly, Michigan's and TCU's CG losses hurt more but their 12 prior wins matter less.  

I opposed expansion generally but always argued for an eight-team model if expansion was necessary that would have included the P5 Champs, the highest ranked non-P5 Champ (#16 Tulane last year) and two at-large.  I also would have had the top-4 Champs host the first round.  In that case the CFP field would have been:
First round games:
Second round games:
Championship:

As I see it the advantages are:

You keep saying that giving Champions auto-bids makes games matter presumably because it makes all the league games matter.  You are ignoring the fact that giving auto-bids to the Champions makes OOC games effectively irrelevant.  Bama/Texas and tOSU/ND this year are HUMONGOUS games but if the SEC and B1G Champs had an auto-bid they would be less-so.  Giving auto-bids to the league champs also makes at least one crossover (assuming you have divisions) irrelevant.  

I'll use tOSU's schedule this year as an example.  Assume that Ohio State loses in South Bend next Saturday then turns around three weeks later and loses in West Lafayette.  They'd be 4-2 and unlikely to be able to make the CFP because no 2-loss team has yet made it.  In the BCS era that team would have been effectively eliminated because only one 2-loss team ever made the BCSNCG.  In the pre-BCS era they'd have been done.  Ie, in the CFP, BCS, and pre-BCS eras Ohio State's games against Notre Dame and Purdue matter a lot.  However, in a larger CFP with auto-bids the 4-2 Buckeyes would still completely control their own destiny.  By winning out they would win the B1G-E and a win in the B1GCG would make them a league Champion and get them an auto-bid.  The OOC and crossover loss don't matter.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2023, 10:44:34 AM
As currently written, the top SIX conference champs will get invites.  That guarantees at least one G5 team, and by next year would mean TWO of them (I expect this to be changed).
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 12:45:42 PM

Quote
I'll use tOSU's schedule this year as an example.  Assume that Ohio State loses in South Bend next Saturday then turns around three weeks later and loses in West Lafayette.  They'd be 4-2 and unlikely to be able to make the CFP because no 2-loss team has yet made it.  In the BCS era that team would have been effectively eliminated because only one 2-loss team ever made the BCSNCG.  In the pre-BCS era they'd have been done.  Ie, in the CFP, BCS, and pre-BCS eras Ohio State's games against Notre Dame and Purdue matter a lot.  However, in a larger CFP with auto-bids the 4-2 Buckeyes would still completely control their own destiny.  By winning out they would win the B1G-E and a win in the B1GCG would make them a league Champion and get them an auto-bid.  The OOC and crossover loss don't matter.  
Yeah, but if they go 4-2 and are out of the playoffs, then their last six or seven games also don't matter. The good thing about auto-bids is that teams have a known way to get in the playoffs that is certain. We can say what the stakes of a particular game are, which is far different than now, where everyone just sort of guesses. Does this game matter? Only the committee truly knows, and they will tell you after the season is over. Not exactly a barrel of excitement. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 14, 2023, 02:13:13 PM
Yeah, but if they go 4-2 and are out of the playoffs, then their last six or seven games also don't matter. The good thing about auto-bids is that teams have a known way to get in the playoffs that is certain. We can say what the stakes of a particular game are, which is far different than now, where everyone just sort of guesses. Does this game matter? Only the committee truly knows, and they will tell you after the season is over. Not exactly a barrel of excitement.
Only they did. In the old days when Ohio State lost a couple early games that just recalibrated things and the goals became the same for us as @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's goals for Purdue, see above. A 4-2 tOSU in the old days could potentially still:

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2023, 03:19:05 PM
Only they did. In the old days when Ohio State lost a couple early games that just recalibrated things and the goals became the same for us as @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's goals for Purdue, see above. A 4-2 tOSU in the old days could potentially still:
  • Beat rivals
  • Win the Big Ten
  • Go to the Rose Bowl
  • Win the Rose Bowl
  • Finish in the top-10 (maybe top-5).
Right. And I don't know how this topic (which IMHO had more to do with the transfer portal and NIL) keeps coming back to the playoff. 

It seems like college football has to solve for two things:


And constraints placed on both come from realignment, conference structure, the transfer portal, and NIL. 


I personally believe that if you're going to have a playoff, you need an objective way to gain entry. So whether it's 12 teams or 8 teams, you need auto-bids for the P5 P4 conference champs, plus an autobid for at least one G5 so you have access. 

But let's look at what has happened, through the eyes of a school like my alma mater, Purdue. 

@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) says "hey, you should be super excited about this playoff--all you have to do is win the B1G and you're in!"

Well, the last time Purdue won the B1G, there were only 11 schools in the conference and no CCG. Starting next year, there will be 18 teams and a CCG. Immediate dilution of chances. 

The last time Purdue won the B1G, there was no transfer portal nor NIL. Purdue was helped by a generational talent at QB who was overlooked due to a HS injury (and probably not being tall enough). In the transfer portal / NIL world, it's entirely possible that a helmet who was light at QB for whatever reason might try to lure a QB like that away. (Not that I think Brees is the type who would take them up on it, but it wouldn't be from Purdue's boosters having the firepower to compete.) NIL is going to destroy whatever parity we wanted to have in the sport, and the transfer portal will whittle the rest away. 

The last time Purdue won its division and made it to the CCG, they did so with 3 conference losses and was clearly not the #2 team in the conference. Which is why there's been a lot of discussion that the B1G should scrap divisions and select the top two schools for the CCG. I"m not going to call it the "anti-Purdue rule", but it's clear that the purpose of the rule would be to keep teams like 2022 Purdue out of the CCG. 

So as Sam talks about the door being opened for schools like Purdue, an 18-team conference with a top-two CCG in a transfer portal / NIL dominated world means this is what our path to the playoff ACTUALLY looks like:

(https://j.gifs.com/vV5p5q.gif)

And then what happens? Winning the B1G and going to the Rose Bowl was a destination. A culmination of a beautiful season, win or lose. The playoff, for a team like Purdue? Well that's just a chance to enter the meat grinder and be exposed for not having the talent that the helmets have in round 1. Which we knew going into the season. 



Yeah, exciting :34:
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 14, 2023, 03:50:18 PM
It seems like college football has to solve for two things:

  • How to best crown a champion.
  • How to keep the game interesting for the fans of the 80% of schools that are out of the NC picture.
Just to clarify, #2 INCLUDES a lot of helmets currently and probably would even with a 12 (or more) team playoff.  Consider a 4-2 Ohio State that lost two games in the State of Indiana (South Bend and West Lafayette):

Pre-BCS:
The hypothetical 4-2 Buckeyes are completely out of the NC race but still very much in the running to knock off rivals and perhaps spoil their seasons, win the league, go to the Rose Bowl, win the Rose Bowl, and finish in the top-10.  

BCS:
The hypothetical 4-2 Buckeyes are almost certainly out of the NC race.  Maybe if they get REALLY lucky this year will end up like 2007 with #1 losing almost every week but the chances are extremely slim.  That said, they are still very much in the running to knock off rivals and perhaps spoil their seasons, win the league, go to the Rose Bowl, win the Rose Bowl, and finish in the top-10.  

4-team CFP:
The hypothetical 4-2 Buckeyes are probably out of the NC race but not necessarily because an 11-2 B1G Champion tOSU team with wins over PSU, M, and the B1G-W Champ would have a chance depending how things went elsewhere.  They are still in the running to knock off rivals but the chance to spoil their season is SEVERELY degraded because a 1-loss Michigan is probably still going to the CFP and while the Rose Bowl is still a possibility, it is a SEVERELY degraded prize because we all know it is no longer THE GOAL, it is merely a consolation prize.  

12-team CFP:
The NC is a theoretical but not a realistic possibility.  The chances that a team bad enough to lose to both ND and PU is going to somehow be good enough to run the table then win the B1GCG, then win three (or four) back-to-back games against top-end opponents is basically zero.  All the other things are severely degraded because knocking off an 11-0 Michigan team in their house in THE GAME doesn't really hurt them much anymore and the Rose Bowl is just a consolation against the PAC's 3rd best team or whatever.  
(https://j.gifs.com/vV5p5q.gif)
I LOVE this because it is a perfect illustration of what has been provided for the G5's and the Purdue's of the sport.  You have a path, see the road here?  Oh, by the way the road is actually a brick wall, meep meep.  

Assuming the 12-team CFP had existed last year AND Purdue had managed to upset Michigan in the B1GCG, here is what I *THINK* their path would have entailed, theoretical 12-team CFP for 2022 (as I understand it the byes go to the top-4 league champions so I've arranged the seeds that way):
So the opening round match-ups are:
Then the second round games are:
Then the semi-finals are:
So Purdue's path (after winning the B1G-W) is:

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 06:48:52 PM
Only they did. In the old days when Ohio State lost a couple early games that just recalibrated things and the goals became the same for us as @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's goals for Purdue, see above. A 4-2 tOSU in the old days could potentially still:
  • Beat rivals
  • Win the Big Ten
  • Go to the Rose Bowl
  • Win the Rose Bowl
  • Finish in the top-10 (maybe top-5).
Yeah but these aren't the old days. They are gone, dead and buried. These are these days, where I agree everything is focused on the playoff and the national championship, to the detriment of many teams. My point is that there are ways to include many more teams and make many more games meaningful, which ultimately improves the sport and makes for better television, to boot. Playoffs with autobids make sense. Super leagues with promotion/relegation makes sense. Sitting and waiting and hoping ... probably leads to a super league and everyone else just does their own thing.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 06:51:19 PM

Quote
And then what happens? Winning the B1G and going to the Rose Bowl was a destination. A culmination of a beautiful season, win or lose. The playoff, for a team like Purdue? Well that's just a chance to enter the meat grinder and be exposed for not having the talent that the helmets have in round 1. Which we knew going into the season. 
Sorry, but saying making the playoff isn't exciting compared to the Rose Bowl reminds me of those who say they would rather make the NIT for the chance to play in Madison Square Garden.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 06:57:54 PM

Quote
So Purdue's path (after winning the B1G-W) is:
  • Beat Michigan in Indianapolis.  
  • Beat TCU in Ft. Worth.  
  • Beat Clemson in a Bowl probably MUCH closer to SC than IN.  
  • Beat Utah, USC, or tOSU at a neutral site.  
  • Beat Georgia, Tulane (yeah right), Michigan (again), KSU, Tennessee, or Alabama in a neutral site NC Game
I challenge anyone on earth to say they would rather play in the Who Cares Bowl over being in the playoffs. Under this system, they have a shot to win an actual playoff game. To even suggest that wouldn't be exciting for Purdue fans is a Trumpian level of denial.


What are we saying here? Everyone only cares about the playoffs. Well, add more teams to the thing everyone cares about. That's a simple win with the only downside being, apparently, it doesn't damage the helmet teams enough. The helmet teams currently dominate the landscape, so that's not a particularly convincing argument.

I think it also leads to more of what we want, which is big games against big teams. Yes, Bammer, Georgia, OSU, Michigan and whomever will make the playoffs more and win more, which leads to more games against each other. Which is also what we want.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2023, 07:12:44 PM
Yeah but these aren't the old days. They are gone, dead and buried. These are these days, where I agree everything is focused on the playoff and the national championship, to the detriment of many teams. My point is that there are ways to include many more teams and make many more games meaningful, which ultimately improves the sport and makes for better television, to boot. Playoffs with autobids make sense. Super leagues with promotion/relegation makes sense. Sitting and waiting and hoping ... probably leads to a super league and everyone else just does their own thing.
Essentially that's what we're getting. College football will be relevant to about 20 schools nationwide, and the rest of us, well, probably won't give a shit any more. Because if you're not playing to win it all, why are you playing at all?

Maybe an NCAAT model is what you think is amazing. But nobody outside CBB diehards care about the NCAAT (or college basketball) except for bracket pools. 

Sorry, but saying making the playoff isn't exciting compared to the Rose Bowl reminds me of those who say they would rather make the NIT for the chance to play in Madison Square Garden.
Completely different thing. The NIT was always second fiddle to the NCAAT. The Rose Bowl was second fiddle to nothing. It wasn't called "the granddaddy of them all" for nothing. 

To an extent, the BCS changed that SLIGHTLY. The Rose would be the MNC game once every 4 years (IIRC). But the MNC was only two teams, not guaranteed to include the B1G or PAC champ, so to a large extent the B1G and PAC teams were angling for the Rose Bowl with the hopes that if they were #1 or #2, they might get elevated to the BCSCG. If so, the B1G runner-up could still end up in the Rose, which didn't suck. 

The 4-team CFP changed that more. The Rose would be a CFP semifinal once every 3 years (IIRC), and the B1G and PAC champs had a really solid chance of being in the CFP. so "missing out" and being in the Rose was a letdown, but if the B1G or PAC champ was in the CFP and it wasn't a semifinal, the B1G runner-up could still end up in the Rose, which didn't suck. 

The 12-team CFP kills it. The Rose will ALWAYS be a CFP game. It is no longer a destination; it's a stepping stone. It's only maintained via pageantry to something that has lost all meaning because there's too much money to just call it what it is, a regional quarterfinal or semifinal game.

So yeah, nobody NOW will say they'd rather make the Rose than the playoff. But that's because the Rose Bowl has been devalued by making the entire story the playoff. (And of course it's a moot point because the Rose is a playoff game and you can't get there otherwise.) 

My point is that the bowl system WAS the NCAAT in the previous model. Now the CFP is the NCAAT, and the bowl system is the NIT. And who cares one whit about the NIT? Nobody. 

Again, this made the world better for 20 or so schools. And the other 110, well, might as well be Tiddlywinks.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 07:25:47 PM

Quote
Maybe an NCAAT model is what you think is amazing. But nobody outside CBB diehards care about the NCAAT (or college basketball) except for bracket pools. 
Let's see, a postseason which draws in people from all walks of life who don't care about the sport and causes work productivity to come to a standstill is something we shouldn't want? Did they promote you to manager or something?



Quote
Again, this made the world better for 20 or so schools. And the other 110, well, might as well be Tiddlywinks.
I absolutely agree, though where I disagree is that this is somehow something that can't be changed or influenced. When you create an invitational only 4 team playoff, it's going to reward the very tip top of the sport. Rewarding the rest of the teams is where the schools should be trying to throw their weight around, instead of chasing every dollar.


Without some commitment to that, I think the Purdues and whomever will eventually get dropped from the Big Ten. Why would NBC/FOX/Disney Plus/Amazon keep paying for them when there is nothing they can do to stay relevant?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2023, 07:26:18 PM
I challenge anyone on earth to say they would rather play in the Who Cares Bowl over being in the playoffs. Under this system, they have a shot to win an actual playoff game. To even suggest that wouldn't be exciting for Purdue fans is a Trumpian level of denial.
Again, it's looking at things through a prism of "well, we have a 12-team playoff, so get on board."

Pre-playoff, the Who Cares Bowl was a thing worth paying attention to. Yeah, it was fun and meaningless. But for a team like Purdue, it was a reward for a season well played. And for the fans, stuck in dreary frigid Indianapolis, it was an excuse to get on a plane and visit someplace that doesn't suck. When my wife and I went to the Chicken Bowl in Santa Clara in 2017, there were a bunch of diehard Boilers who were excited to be there. Even if it was an irrelevant team vs an irrelevant team. 

I'm saying that had it's own quirky and idiosyncratic value as the format for a sport's postseason. 

The BCS sucked a little (but not much) air out of that room. The 4-team CFP sucked a little more. The 12-team CFP turned that room into vacuum. And the fans of the teams who lived in that room are getting asphyxiated. 

I was one of those fans. While I can obviously say CBB had more of an impact on this decision, I haven't watched a Purdue sporting event since March 2022, and have no plans to (even if I bet on them on Saturday in Vegas, I probably won't watch; I'll go drink and go to dinner and go to see Adele and check the score afterwards to see if my ticket won). 

The NIL, the transfer portal, realignment into an 18-team conference where we'll likely have a CCG and top-two teams instead of division winners? Yeah, Purdue is cannon fodder, as @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) eloquently pointed out. But at least in the old bowl system, cannon fodder at least got the Who Cares Bowl at the end of the year to celebrate if you managed to win more or equal games than you lost. 

So as a fan of a team that will make the CFP once a generation (about as often as we'd make the Rose Bowl), allow me a few moments to lament what your beautiful playoff is doing to the Who Cares Bowl. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 14, 2023, 07:32:52 PM
I challenge anyone on earth to say they would rather play in the Who Cares Bowl over being in the playoffs. Under this system, they have a shot to win an actual playoff game. NO THEY DON'T, STOP PERPETUATING THE LIE !!!  To even suggest that wouldn't be exciting for Purdue fans is a Trumpian level of denial.


What are we saying here? Everyone only cares about the playoffs. Well, add more teams to the thing everyone cares about. That's a simple win with the only downside being, apparently, it doesn't damage the helmet teams enough. The helmet teams currently dominate the landscape, so that's not a particularly convincing argument.

I think it also leads to more of what we want, which is big games against big teams. Yes, Bammer, Georgia, OSU, Michigan and whomever will make the playoffs more and win more, which leads to more games against each other. Which is also what we want.
16 teams?  32?  Let's do 64.  Oh, play-in games, let's go to 68.  Half of everyone gets a "chance" to win the NC.  Go Zips!!!
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2023, 07:35:35 PM
Let's see, a postseason which draws in people from all walks of life who don't care about the sport and causes work productivity to come to a standstill is something we shouldn't want? Did they promote you to manager or something?
Yeah. Weren't you just castigating OAM for being in thrall to the networks because he wants the most helmets in the CFP?

And now you're arguing that a sport is made more healthy because a bunch of people who don't care prop up 4 days of Turner Broadcasting ratings until their brackets are busted and then go on with their lives? 

Sports are healthy when fans care. I think the entire purpose of this thread started by @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) is lamenting that superfans of non-helmets are showing that we. just. don't. care. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 14, 2023, 07:39:52 PM
Well, I would definitely disagree on their being no improvement. We already killed the big games by making them "data points" instead of games where the results matter. Games should matter! The results should matter. Last year, Michigan and Purdue played in the Big Ten championship. It was a meaningless game, because Michigan still would have enough "data points" to make the playoffs and Purdue had no path even if they won the conference. Meaningless games are what is making the sport bland, and there are far, far too many of them.

Data points?

WTF are you talking about?  You're in 1999, bud.
UM's season, taken as a whole, was one of the 4 best.  How is that a "data point?"
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 14, 2023, 07:44:41 PM
  Last year's final CFP rankings:
  • 13-0 UGA, SEC Champ
  • 13-0 M, B1G Champ
  • 12-1 TCU, lost last game - B12CG to #9 KSU
  • 11-1 tOSU, lost last game - The Game to #2 M
  • 10-2 Bama
  • 10-2 Tn
  • 11-2 Clemson, ACC Champ
  • 10-3 Utah, Pac Champ
  • 10-3 KSU, B12 Champ
  • 11-2 USC, lost last game - Pac CG to #8 Utah
  • 10-2 PSU
  • 10-2 Washington

P5 Champs in bold. 
I mean look at it.  It's embarrassing.  0-0-1-1-2-2-2 losses.  A shaved ape could do that.  Ohh, intrigue, 3-loss Utah and KSU get bonus points for winning their conference.  Then, it's back to 2-2-2.

Zero room for context - MOV, SOS, etc.  Just number of losses and H2H.  We've Idiocracied ourselves into that.  Ooga-booga.  How many losses?  Head-to-head.  Snarf.  

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 14, 2023, 07:47:33 PM


(https://j.gifs.com/vV5p5q.gif)

This is such a perfect example of several things:  not just Wyle E. Purdue smacking his face into an elite program, given a playoff berth...but also, he's only trying it out despite having painted it himself because the roadrunner (ie- helmet team) ran right through it....right into the playoff.  Even as a 2 or 3-loss lower seed, just headed right into the playoff with confidence and talent. 

This is some Winnie the Pooh-level insight.  Very good!  Much respect.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 14, 2023, 08:10:00 PM
The bowls have been all over the place.  
From having like 73 of them today, and multiple bowls at one site....to starting out with few bowls....some conferences putting restraints on bowls....tie-ins changing here and there, etc.  Hell, NCs were crowned before the bowls back in the day.  
I'm looking around at the past:

in 1967, there were 8 real bowls (not including the Junior Rose Bowl?), so 16 teams.  Only 5 were ranked.  Yes, there was only a top 10 back then, but with 16 spots, shouldn't all or close to all participate in them?

in 1990, there were 19 bowls and all but 3 top 25 teams participated.  That makes more sense.

Twice in seven years (77-83), the #5 team pre-bowls finished as NC.  Neither was a case of the #5 team leapfrogging a top 4 bowl-winning team they had previously beaten.  

The Holiday Bowl crowned it's one and only NC in 1984....on Dec. 21.

I have to ask about 1985 (if it was something other than a bowl invite accepted too soon) - why didn't 1 and 2 play each other, as both were independents (1 PSU, 2 Miami)?  Did every bowl of consequence have a conference tie-in?  As it stood, they both lost and OU got their ring.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 09:08:56 PM


Quote
I haven't watched a Purdue sporting event since March 2022



Well, hey, Purdue basketball was one of the best in the land this past season, and projects to be even better this season. The sport of our youth is in the rear view mirror.

I got really invested in OSU during the Tressel era, and so I get really grumpy about bad defense and happy about good punting and mostly milquetoast about their current era of awesome offense. The greatest sports time of my life was the 2002 season and going to the 2003 Fiesta Bowl with my dad and brother and watching OSU quarterback sneak their way to a championship. Watching them walk the tight rope of losing a game and being out, yet somehow winning every game was awesome, and it would be awesome to see again.

But the bowls are dying, the BCS is dead, and playoffs are expanding, and the difference between little Bwarb Purdue fans becoming lifelong fans or not is based in them having a chance to be in the party. The party, for better or worse, is in the playoffs. Purdue isn't going to dominate the playoffs, but having a season here or there where they are in contention or make the playoffs is going to go a lot farther on that end than just giving up.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 09:11:27 PM

Quote
Under this system, they have a shot to win an actual playoff game. NO THEY DON'T, STOP PERPETUATING THE LIE !!! 
Under this scenario, they play TCU in the first round. Are you saying Purdue has no actual chance to win a game against TCU? Honestly, I don't understand what you are thinking on that. I get saying don't think Purdue is going to win four games and a championship. But a first round game against a team without all those extra advantages? No doubt at all that they can compete. 


Or, as you might say, STOP PERPETUATING THE LIE OAM!!!! YOU ARE LIVING IN DENIAL!!!
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 14, 2023, 09:15:39 PM
Data points?

WTF are you talking about?  You're in 1999, bud.
UM's season, taken as a whole, was one of the 4 best.  How is that a "data point?"
Under the current system, there is absolutely no way to play your way into the playoff with certainty. This isn't debatable. It is a fact. A team can win all their games 10,000-0 and this does not guarantee their spot in the playoff.

 Instead, the committee looks at all the data points and determines who can be part of the playoff. You don't know until all the games are done whether they mattered or didn't.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 14, 2023, 09:35:16 PM
If a team won 10,000-0 in every game, yes, they would be in the playoff, guaranteed.

(you should have said 222-0)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on September 14, 2023, 11:56:54 PM
FTR, this was the game I referenced.

https://youtu.be/JdIaH_kNXuc?si=XqAVXXNXBTT9D4Qm
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 15, 2023, 09:17:39 AM
FTR, this was the game I referenced.

https://youtu.be/JdIaH_kNXuc?si=XqAVXXNXBTT9D4Qm
I'm pretty sure you said you were a young kid at the time.  Damn kid, I was in college, watched that game from my apartment.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 15, 2023, 10:18:48 AM
Under the current system, there is absolutely no way to play your way into the playoff with certainty. This isn't debatable. It is a fact. 
First, you say this like it is a bad thing.  I would argue that the uncertainty is part of what has driven CFB fandom.  You can't just win every game 10-9 because that *MIGHT* not be good enough.  
A team can win all their games 10,000-0 and this does not guarantee their spot in the playoff.
This is just plain silly.  It is "true" in a theoretical, legalistic sense but it is obviously false realistically because clearly there aren't going to be FOUR other teams who won all of their games 10,001-0.  

As a practical matter, in the 25 years from the inception of the BCS through last season (1998-2022) there have never been more than three undefeated major conference teams at the end of a year.  That happened once during the BCS (2004 Auburn was left out while USC and OU played for the title).  It has also happened at least once in the CFP era (2019 LSU, Clemson, and tOSU all got in).  

As a practical matter, forget about the 10,000-0 nonsense.  If Ohio State this year morph's into an even closer version of 2002 and wins their next 11 games all by 10-9, they'll be 13-0, B1G Champs, and IN the CFP.  
You don't know until all the games are done whether they mattered or didn't.
That is kinda the point.  Ohio State's game against Notre Dame *MIGHT* matter in terms of CFP access or it *MIGHT* not.  If Ohio State ends up either:
Then it probably doesn't matter whether or not tOSU beats ND because a 9-3 tOSU with a win over ND isn't getting in any more than an 8-4 tOSU with a loss to ND and a 12-1 tOSU with a B1G Championship and a loss to ND is almost certainly in while a 13-0 tOSU with a B1G Championship and a win over ND is an absolute lock.  

Similarly, the game referenced above by @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) ended up not really mattering to Ohio State in the NC determination, it only allowed the Buckeyes to hang on to #2 for one more week.  After surviving the Hoosiers the Buckeyes:


OTOH, an Indiana win there might have actually cost @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's gators the NC, here is why:

That is getting pretty far off into the weeds.  Bringing this back, the point is that a bunch of Michigan fan kids stopped their game to run inside and watch IU/tOSU because it *MIGHT* have been important.  Note that it really wasn't important to their team.  Going into that game their team already had two losses with both coming in league games and one to a Northwestern team that only had one loss.  Michigan may have had some crazy hypothetical mathematical chance I guess because:
The bigger issue with that game for a bunch of Michigan fan kids, I think, was the potential impact on the NC race.  

You keep wanting guarantees but my argument here is that the lack of guarantees is part of what made the CFB Regular season so intense and so compelling.  There was always a chance in any given week that Ohio State could lose an NC on a bad afternoon in Bloomington or at home against MSU (1998).  

That is the issue, as I see it, for fans of Helmet (and helmet adjacent) teams like you and @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) and @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) and I.  The regular season games have necessarily lost a lot of their juice because now our teams are MUCH more likely to be able to win an NC in spite of a bad day against VaTech in an early season game (2014 tOSU).  

The issue for the non-helmet fans is a much bigger problem.  You ( @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) ) keep telling them that they should love this, they have a guaranteed path!  You haven't convinced them.  The point I've made repeatedly is that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , and @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's TxTech fan friend aren't just run-of-the-mill fans.  These guys were SUPERFANS of non-helmet teams and we are clearly pushing them away.  That is a problem.  

Here is what I think we've done to them:
I might be missing some but I think that covers the main issues.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2023, 10:38:07 AM

The issue for the non-helmet fans is a much bigger problem.  You ( @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) ) keep telling them that they should love this, they have a guaranteed path!  You haven't convinced them.  The point I've made repeatedly is that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , and @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's TxTech fan friend aren't just run-of-the-mill fans.  These guys were SUPERFANS of non-helmet teams and we are clearly pushing them away.  That is a problem. 

Exactly. And the problem is that the powers that be simply don't see us leaving. We're quietly just not showing up for it any more. They won't know there's a problem until too many more of us disengage.

You guys see it because we have a community here that I choose to remain a part of despite being disengaged from its raison d'être... But if I had quietly just drifted away, it's quite possible that nobody would have known why. 

10 years from now, what are ticket sales and alumni donations going to look like for the non-helmet teams that have been made even more irrelevant? 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 15, 2023, 10:41:40 AM
The schism will widen and CFB will be NFLized to a greater degree.  The programs somewhat in the middle, say Auburn, will also lose fan interest and resources (unless they turn around quickly).  The chances that a TCU could put together a "magical" season will go from unlikely to nearly impossible.  Even a Penn State could suffer.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on September 15, 2023, 11:00:44 AM
I'm pretty sure you said you were a young kid at the time.  Damn kid, I was in college, watched that game from my apartment. 
I was in middle school
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: FearlessF on September 15, 2023, 11:16:35 AM


I have to ask about 1985 (if it was something other than a bowl invite accepted too soon) - why didn't 1 and 2 play each other, as both were independents (1 PSU, 2 Miami)?  Did every bowl of consequence have a conference tie-in?  As it stood, they both lost and OU got their ring.
Sooner Magic
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 15, 2023, 11:56:13 AM
I was in middle school
Damn kid.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 12:20:11 PM

Quote
You keep wanting guarantees but my argument here is that the lack of guarantees is part of what made the CFB Regular season so intense and so compelling.  There was always a chance in any given week that Ohio State could lose an NC on a bad afternoon in Bloomington or at home against MSU (1998).  
Yes, the regular season was compelling and fun. This is a fact. It also was somewhat meaningless. Notre Dame didn't win a national championship in 1993 despite beating champ Florida State. Penn State didn't win a national championship despite going undefeated in 1994. The reason the BCS was created and then the playoffs was because the bowl system was a completely idiotic way to crown a national champion. All of these things are going to have tradeoffs, the issue is what we are trading off.


On that end, the lack of certainty is what made it all feel unfair and somewhat rigged. That it didn't really matter what the results of games were, as opposed to the "eye test," which further favored the teams that already had all the advantages. I guess there is a matter of personal preference - gymnasts and divers are "judged" because you can't really win it as a competition any other way. The NFL (and any other sport) could adopt a system like college football's where a committee just invites the teams they think deserve to be in the playoffs. If they did, I imagine they would use market size as a tiebreaker.


Quote
The issue for the non-helmet fans is a much bigger problem.  You ( @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) ) keep telling them that they should love this, they have a guaranteed path!  You haven't convinced them.


We will have to agree to disagree about that. Middle aged men wishing things were how they used to be is not the best test to what the fans want. I'd say nearly every fan everywhere would want an easier path to the playoff as opposed to a harder one for their particular team. In general, my theory is that:




So Agenda 1 and 2 should be to make sure the games have meaning and more teams have a realistic chance to participate. Sure, big upsets were more compelling if they knocked a team out of the race, but these upsets are still compelling because upsets are naturally compelling. If it doesn't lead to actual chances for other teams, then it doesn't matter anyway.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 15, 2023, 12:25:01 PM
We sort of think we know who the monster programs will be in say 2033, but maybe we don't.  Probably we don't completely.  How much has that landscape changed in a decade of the past?  We all remember the Nebraska/FSU/Miami runs in the 90s.  Florida had a run and then faded mostly.  Maybe Clemson is fading?  UGA looks great, for now, but they too might drop to so so in a decade.  Bama?  One coach away.  Texas?  I think coming back.  Some of the major majors appear equipped to sustain as Ohio State has mostly done.  Some may not.  Will they drop down for good or bounce up and down?  I don't know.

Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on September 15, 2023, 12:37:13 PM
Damn kid. 
About to turn 40, so I'll take it
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 15, 2023, 12:49:45 PM
You're getting old when you think 40 us young.

~???
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 15, 2023, 02:25:04 PM
Does new Whistler tower set bar for posh student living in Atlanta? | Urbanize Atlanta (https://atlanta.urbanize.city/post/georgia-tech-student-tower-whistler-tower-posh-photos-rents)

My dorm was not like this ,...
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2023, 02:41:39 PM
We will have to agree to disagree about that. Middle aged men wishing things were how they used to be is not the best test to what the fans want. I'd say nearly every fan everywhere would want an easier path to the playoff as opposed to a harder one for their particular team. In general, my theory is that:


  • Fans lose interest when there is no realistic chance for their team to participate
  • Fans lose interest when the results of games have little meaning


So Agenda 1 and 2 should be to make sure the games have meaning and more teams have a realistic chance to participate. Sure, big upsets were more compelling if they knocked a team out of the race, but these upsets are still compelling because upsets are naturally compelling. If it doesn't lead to actual chances for other teams, then it doesn't matter anyway.

The previous college football postseason was a poor method for crowning a champion, I'll grant you that. 

But it was a great postseason for all but those top 15 programs in the country who cared about being the champion. 

Purdue fans wanted to make a bowl. ANY bowl. Even that stupid one in Detroit. If you make a bowl, you're going to have a destination for your season. Typically, you'll be matched up against a team of relatively equal strength, so more often than not you're going to have an exciting game and maybe come out with a win. 

With 35-40 bowls, that means there were 35-40 teams finishing the postseason with a win and a smile. 

With the playoff, there is only ONE goal. To be the champion. And only ONE team is going to win it. And it will NEVER, EVER, EVER, be my team. 

With an 18-team conference, CCG that becomes "top two teams" instead of division winners, and the transfer portal / NIL world, I'd argue that a 12-team playoff does NOT give my team a realistic chance at participation. So Agenda 1 is dead. Maybe if all the stars align, once every 20 years? And then on that OFF chance that we make it once a generation, it's just a matter of how long we can survive until getting curb-stomped by a team whose third-string redshirts are more talented than our starters. Because the road to the final is such an arduous gauntlet that a team that isn't full of STARZ will have zero shot. 

So you want our games to have meaning? What meaning is there in having to have a generationally successful team to even sniff the postseason, while knowing that getting to the playoff doesn't get you any realistic chance of winning the thing?

Bowl games were maybe meaningless. But they were fun. For a team like Purdue, the CFP doesn't sound like fun at all. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Gigem on September 15, 2023, 02:46:37 PM
We started NFL'ing the CFB in the 80's and 90's with million dollar coaches.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on September 15, 2023, 02:53:32 PM
The previous college football postseason was a poor method for crowning a champion, I'll grant you that.

But it was a great postseason for all but those top 15 programs in the country who cared about being the champion.

Purdue fans wanted to make a bowl. ANY bowl. Even that stupid one in Detroit. If you make a bowl, you're going to have a destination for your season. Typically, you'll be matched up against a team of relatively equal strength, so more often than not you're going to have an exciting game and maybe come out with a win.

With 35-40 bowls, that means there were 35-40 teams finishing the postseason with a win and a smile.

With the playoff, there is only ONE goal. To be the champion. And only ONE team is going to win it. And it will NEVER, EVER, EVER, be my team.

With an 18-team conference, CCG that becomes "top two teams" instead of division winners, and the transfer portal / NIL world, I'd argue that a 12-team playoff does NOT give my team a realistic chance at participation. So Agenda 1 is dead. Maybe if all the stars align, once every 20 years? And then on that OFF chance that we make it once a generation, it's just a matter of how long we can survive until getting curb-stomped by a team whose third-string redshirts are more talented than our starters. Because the road to the final is such an arduous gauntlet that a team that isn't full of STARZ will have zero shot.

So you want our games to have meaning? What meaning is there in having to have a generationally successful team to even sniff the postseason, while knowing that getting to the playoff doesn't get you any realistic chance of winning the thing?

Bowl games were maybe meaningless. But they were fun. For a team like Purdue, the CFP doesn't sound like fun at all.
Agree with all of this.

I've said before, college football has always been super top heavy.  The only counter balance is that one team might catch every break in a year, like a 5th down, while the best team in the country might be unfocused on a random rainy October Saturday in Columbia, Missouri.  Giving teams more chances to absorb losses and redeem themselves certainly gives us a truer champion.  Hell, I'd have a hard time arguing the best team ever DIDN'T win the NC in the CFP era.  But is that worth ruining the regular season over?  I don't think so.  I never particularly cared who won the NC.  I just loved the fun of it.  Even when a team sneaks up into the top now, it's not all that meaningful, because they will get got in the CCG, or the semi, or the championship game.  I think MSU got up to #2 after they beat Michigan in 2021 to get to like 8-0?  I never had any thought they were winning a national championship.  And when Purdue upset them the next week, it wasn't all that crushing, because we needed to win 3 more fluke games to win a title anyway.  In 2003, that would have been a MASSIVE blow.  A game against OSU is all that would have stood between MSU and a championship game.

That was similar to BC upsetting Notre Dame in 1993.  Except that actually mattered
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 15, 2023, 03:14:51 PM
Yes, the regular season was compelling and fun. This is a fact. It also was somewhat meaningless. 
It was compelling and fun because you didn't KNOW at the time which losses would be fatal to NC aspirations and which would be survivable.  
Notre Dame didn't win a national championship in 1993 despite beating champ Florida State. 
That FSU@ND game was the first time ESPN went on the road in what became their College Gameday program.  You are correct, of course, that FSU ended up winning the NC despite losing in South Bend but there are multiple things that I think you are overlooking here:
*Intensity of regular season games circa 1993:
I remember this one REALLY well because I was a freshman at Ohio State in the fall of 1993 and the Buckeyes were in the thick of the NC race right up until Cooper's annual loss to Michigan.  

The Buckeyes started out at "only" #17 because they had only gone 8-3-1 the previous year, hadn't beaten Michigan since 1987 (Earle Bruce's last year), and hadn't won the conference and been to the Rose Bowl in almost a decade (1984 season).  They started out 8-0 and climbed to #3 before tying the Badgers in Madison to drop to #5.  When the poll came out after the tie with Wisconsin I remember consulting my preseason magazine to check the schedules of the teams ahead of us to mentally determine which games I needed them to lose.  Also, Wisconsin had already lost two weeks earlier to a bad Minnesota team so the Buckeyes still were in the driver's seat as far as the Rose Bowl was concerned.  The top of the poll after the Wisconsin tie:
In my mind it was simple:
Ohio State wins out, wins the NC.  

That made ALL of FSU's, Notre Dame's, Miami's, and Nebraska's games compelling to me.  To a somewhat lesser extent the games of teams close behind Ohio State were ALSO compelling to me.  I had a rooting interest in ALL of those regular season games.  

As we become more and more like CBB that is lost.  I've had this discussion with @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) before and he finds the MEAC Tournament fascinating because it determines which MEAC team goes to the NCAAT but I've never looked at it that way.  To my way of thinking, two crappy teams are going to play in the MEACCG and one of them will win thus snagging an auto-bid to the NCAAT.  Why on earth would I care which crappy MEAC team gets that bid?  

Even when Ohio State has had high-level CBB teams in contention for #1 seeds (ya know, before Chris Holtmann) I never really cared much about how the other high-end teams from other conferences were doing because I don't see it as impacting my team much.  In football there were always less spots so it mattered a LOT to me who won the #1 vs #2 FSU @ Notre Dame game and I REALLY rooted for upsets because I felt like my team needed those upsets to clear a path.  In CBB I just don't feel like I have a reason to care even when UNC and Dook are both top-5 and play each other.  As an Ohio State fan, even if Ohio State is also top-5 and competing with those two for a #1 seed I just don't care.  An upset loss by UNC or Dook in that situation does help tOSU but it isn't the same as say #1 Bama losing a football game because in CFB there is ONLY one #1 seed.  Ohio State can't get it unless Alabama loses so I have an intense interest in rooting for Tennessee or Auburn or whoever to knock off the Tide.  In CBB there are four #1 seeds and somebody has to lose the UNC/Dook game so what difference does it make?  

Playoff expansion is going to make me feel the same way about non-B1G CFB games.  I might watch but I will not have an intense rooting interest in cheering for Tennessee and LSU to take out Bama or whatever.  
The reason the BCS was created and then the playoffs was because the bowl system was a completely idiotic way to crown a national champion. 
You can call it idiotic all you want but the REASON that CFB had the best regular season in sports was BECAUSE of the Polls and Bowls system of crowning a NC.  
All of these things are going to have tradeoffs, the issue is what we are trading off.
Yep.  With a 12-team playoff there will be 11 hyper-intense games because they are single-elimination and thus very high stakes.  All the games before that are just about getting there and all the power-league teams are going to realistically know that they are in at 10-2 or better so they effectively have two mulligans.  The intensity of regular season games is gone.  So you've traded hundreds of intense games for 11.  
On that end, the lack of certainty is what made it all feel unfair and somewhat rigged. That it didn't really matter what the results of games were, as opposed to the "eye test," which further favored the teams that already had all the advantages. 
This statement is, at best, disingenuous.  Game results DID matter.  Sure, some results got overridden.  That HAS to happen because you are going to end up with multiple 1-loss teams.  I remember seeing a ND shirt after the 1989 season that had a convoluted list of results of ND over ___ over ___ over ____ . . . over Miami, thus Notre Dame should be NC.  

The results of the games absolutely did matter just not necessarily in the same way that YOU thought they should have mattered.  I always disagreed with the fact that losing early was better than losing late for example.  Whatever you thought about it, it is completely ridiculous to say "it didn't really matter what the results of the games were".  That suggests that a 3-9 Michigan would have been ranked ahead of a 10-2 Purdue.  That is simply untrue.  Some games mattered more than others and some results had to be plowed under because you always had situations like the Tx/TxTech/OU year in the B12.  Texas beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma beat TxTech and Tech beat Texas.  There is no way to square that circle without making the result of one of those games "not matter".  No matter how you rank them, one of those teams is going to be ranked ahead of a team that they lost to.  
We will have to agree to disagree about that. Middle aged men wishing things were how they used to be is not the best test to what the fans want. I'd say nearly every fan everywhere would want an easier path to the playoff as opposed to a harder one for their particular team. In general, my theory is that:
  • Fans lose interest when there is no realistic chance for their team to participate
  • Fans lose interest when the results of games have little meaning
Funny you should mention this because it is EXACTLY the reason that non-helmet superfans are walking away.  They don't have games that matter anymore.  They don't have obtainable goals that anyone cares about anymore.  

In 2000 Purdue beat Michigan and they were lucky enough that neither tOSU nor PSU were all that good and they ended up going to the Rose Bowl.  That was a meaningful goal, a goal that the "big kids" usually kept to themselves but PU was able to swoop in and grab one.  Now they can't and to the extent that they can nobody cares anymore and to the extent that they do it will only be because it is a CFP quarter-final or whatever and PU will almost always be a prohibitive underdog even if they somehow get there and even if they pull that upset that just gets them a tougher team a week later.  You are trying to sub in "made the playoff" for "made the Rose Bowl" and the Purdue fan has already told you that it just isn't the same thing because the Rose Bowl was a destination not a journey.  The playoff is a journey.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 15, 2023, 03:26:02 PM
Agree with all of this.

I've said before, college football has always been super top heavy.  The only counter balance is that one team might catch every break in a year, like a 5th down, while the best team in the country might be unfocused on a random rainy October Saturday in Columbia, Missouri.  Giving teams more chances to absorb losses and redeem themselves certainly gives us a truer champion.  Hell, I'd have a hard time arguing the best team ever DIDN'T win the NC in the CFP era.  But is that worth ruining the regular season over?  I don't think so.  I never particularly cared who won the NC.  I just loved the fun of it.  Even when a team sneaks up into the top now, it's not all that meaningful, because they will get got in the CCG, or the semi, or the championship game.  I think MSU got up to #2 after they beat Michigan in 2021 to get to like 8-0?  I never had any thought they were winning a national championship.  And when Purdue upset them the next week, it wasn't all that crushing, because we needed to win 3 more fluke games to win a title anyway.  In 2003, that would have been a MASSIVE blow.  A game against OSU is all that would have stood between MSU and a championship game.

That was similar to BC upsetting Notre Dame in 1993.  Except that actually mattered
My examples are two with YOUR damn team:
You will NEVER convince me that MSU's teams in 1998 and 2015 were better than Ohio State's teams those years.  Worse, Ohio State was good enough in both of those years that but for the losses to MSU, they might well have won the NC*.  Those games were intense from my perspective as a tOSU fan because I KNEW the results would almost certainly matter.  Same situation next year, no big deal because an 11-1 non-Champion Ohio State is an absolute lock for one of the 12 playoff spots.  Sorry not sorry to say it but if there had been a 12-team playoff in either 1998 or 2015 and Ohio State had run into MSU within that playoff (not possible in 1998 because .500 MSU wouldn't have been close) the Buckeyes would have curb stomped MSU in a revenge game on their way to the next round.  

*In 1998 the inaugural BCSNCG ended up being FSU/UT.  Tennessee was obvious because they were undefeated.  FSU was picked from a group of 1-loss teams in large part because their loss was in early September.  That MSU loss in 1998 absolutely cost the Buckeyes an appearance in the first BCSNCG.  

In 2015 MSU got in despite losing to a bad UNL team because they were 12-1 and the B1G Champion.  Ohio State missed out at 11-1 because the loss kept them out of the B1GCG.  
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MrNubbz on September 15, 2023, 04:17:56 PM

My examples are two with YOUR damn team:
You will NEVER convince me that MSU's teams in 1998 and 2015 were better than Ohio State's teams those years.  Worse, Ohio State was good enough in both of those years that but for the losses to MSU, they might well have won the NC*. 
Just win Baby
I'd like to go back to like'95 alignment of Conferences with one caveat . Revenue sharing pertaining to Networx and Gov't grants for all conf. members. The last 10-12 yrs are just BS and will be the undoing of what we came to enjoy in the sport IMHO. Adding Rutgers/Maryland where just a bad fit and too much for the divisions also. If I ever see Big Jim I'll  kick his cajones in if he has any
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2023, 04:23:09 PM
I just know that @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) is over here saying: 

"Hey, the Playoff is where the party is at! Aren't you excited, Purdue? One year out of 20 we might invite you to the party!!!"

I've seen that one before. 

(https://i.imgur.com/DIQh7MU.jpg)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: ELA on September 15, 2023, 05:10:36 PM
Just win Baby
I'd like to go back to like'95 alignment of Conferences with one caveat . Revenue sharing pertaining to Networx and Gov't grants for all conf. members. The last 10-12 yrs are just BS and will be the undoing of what we came to enjoy in the sport IMHO. Adding Rutgers/Maryland where just a bad fit and too much for the divisions also. If I ever see Big Jim I'll  kick his cajones in if he has any

If the power conferences had joined together then, and negotiated tv deals together, we might have had something
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 06:29:54 PM

Quote
For a team like Purdue, the CFP doesn't sound like fun at all. 
Listen, I know you believe this. Your inner Purdue fan has been through the ringer and now resembles this:


(https://media2.giphy.com/media/HFqr78CF5vVXq/giphy.gif)

But no, there is no plausible argument that fans will be sadder to be in the playoffs than the Cheez-It Bowl. Sparty fans were excited to make the playoffs in 2015 despite them having the same shot of winning as Purdue. There is the constant conflation of thinking everything will be like it is now, but that is almost certainly wrong. The odds that the Big Ten will look exactly the same in 2034 as 2024 is very low.

Further, while we are fixated on Purdue, most of the programs are Purdue. And some of them will have good seasons and make the playoffs and create lasting excitement and memories for the fans. It will be much better than a random bowl game. And, it makes it more likely that other programs can chase that level of success. Which is good.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 06:48:02 PM


Quote
This statement is, at best, disingenuous.  Game results DID matter. 



No. It is fact. In baseball, a team has a record. First place wins their division and makes the playoffs. The next group makes the wildcard. They don't wait until the season ends and then vote on who should go to the playoffs. You know, with certainty, the benefits of a particular win or loss.

The 2016 Big Ten Championship featured two great teams in Penn State and Wisconsin. Penn State wanted to make the playoffs because they already beat OSU. Wisconsin had the same record as Penn State. The game didn't end up mattering either way, though you didn't really know that at the time. It was just a guess. Maybe you were rooting for something big. Maybe you weren't. They tell you after it's over. Maybe you find that fun, but I certainly don't. I think that is just neutering big games and then saying it's for the greater good.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2023, 07:04:03 PM
Alright Sam, you've convinced me. The Playoff is great, and it's going to inspire hordes of future little Purdue fans because of how exciting it will be. 

I look forward to Purdue's first appearance in the College Football Playoff. God willing, I'll be able to dress my wee little great-grandson up for it and light the Boilermaker fires within his soul. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 15, 2023, 07:41:24 PM
Alright Sam, you've convinced me. The Playoff is great, and it's going to inspire hordes of future little Purdue fans because of how exciting it will be.

I look forward to Purdue's first appearance in the College Football Playoff. God willing, I'll be able to dress my wee little great-grandson up for it and light the Boilermaker fires within his soul.

You're literally telling him your own preference for your own program and he's telling you you're wrong.
He's unreachable.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 15, 2023, 07:42:23 PM
No. It is fact. In baseball, a team has a record. First place wins their division and makes the playoffs. The next group makes the wildcard. They don't wait until the season ends and then vote on who should go to the playoffs. You know, with certainty, the benefits of a particular win or loss.

The 2016 Big Ten Championship featured two great teams in Penn State and Wisconsin. Penn State wanted to make the playoffs because they already beat OSU. Wisconsin had the same record as Penn State. The game didn't end up mattering either way, though you didn't really know that at the time. It was just a guess. Maybe you were rooting for something big. Maybe you weren't. They tell you after it's over. Maybe you find that fun, but I certainly don't. I think that is just neutering big games and then saying it's for the greater good.
Just stop, you are making yourself look silly.

In 2016 Penn State lost to a mediocre Pitt team and got annihilated by a Michigan team that Ohio State beat.

Lack of certainty is not the same thing as game results not mattering.

Penn State's win over Ohio State mattered but so did Ohio State's 11 wins, Penn State's other 10 wins, AND Penn State's two bad losses.

The fact that you thought the committee got the wrong answer does not mean that game results did not matter, it means that they ALL mattered not just divisional games.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 15, 2023, 07:50:01 PM


Bowl games were maybe meaningless. But they were fun. For a team like Purdue, the CFP doesn't sound like fun at all.
You're wrong for not wanting to get throttled by a juggernaut in your final game of the season.  Just getting to the playoff is going to warm your heart for decades.  Ignore the embarrassing final score.  You got in!  Celebrate!  
Correct your opinion.  Duh!!
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2023, 07:55:07 PM
You're wrong for not wanting to get throttled by a juggernaut in your final game of the season.  Just getting to the playoff is going to warm your heart for decades.  Ignore the embarrassing final score.  You got in!  Celebrate! 
Correct your opinion.  Duh!!
It's ok. I'm just a middle-aged man pining for the way things used to be. 

It's those future Purdue fans who will be excited to make the playoff. For, you know, the school who hasn't had a 2-loss regular season since 1979, and hasn't had a 1-loss regular season since 1958. 

And who is now in an 18-team conference where starting in 2024 there won't be divisions and they will pick the top two conference teams for the CCG. 

I'm sure that CFP-worthy record is JUST AROUND THE CORNER.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 07:56:19 PM
Just stop, you are making yourself look silly.

In 2016 Penn State lost to a mediocre Pitt team and got annihilated by a Michigan team that Ohio State beat.

Lack of certainty is not the same thing as game results not mattering.

Penn State's win over Ohio State mattered but so did Ohio State's 11 wins, Penn State's other 10 wins, AND Penn State's two bad losses.

The fact that you thought the committee got the wrong answer does not mean that game results did not matter, it means that they ALL mattered not just divisional games.
Yes it does! I mean, when you are wrong you're wrong, and here you are 100%, without a shadow of a doubt, living in a dreamland wrong.

It doesn't matter that you can say, in retrospect, what games matter and what didn't. That doesn't tell you, at the time they are played, when they are played, how they will matter and why. The stakes are uncertain. If you like that, more power to you, though there is a reason pretty much all sports that can have moved away from that system. When the games are played, you don't know if they matter, whether they will matter, and how they will matter. That's the whole problem! The 2016 Big Ten Championship was maybe for something and maybe not for something. While you were watching, you didn't know. It was NOT, win and you advance, which is exciting. It was "win and hope" which is very much more of a wet fart.

Which is what I'm railing against. You and OAM and whomever seem to want more wet fart games. I want games that actually matter and you know what the stakes are. We clearly don't have that right now, nor do we have much access for other teams. It's a lose/lose for causal fans and fans of everyone but the best teams.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 07:57:34 PM
It's ok. I'm just a middle-aged man pining for the way things used to be.

It's those future Purdue fans who will be excited to make the playoff. For, you know, the school who hasn't had a 2-loss regular season since 1979, and hasn't had a 1-loss regular season since 1958.

And who is now in an 18-team conference where starting in 2024 there won't be divisions and they will pick the top two conference teams for the CCG.

I'm sure that CFP-worthy record is JUST AROUND THE CORNER.
If the Alamo Bowl can make you pine for the good ole days, just think what a playoff appearance would do to the pimply teenaged Purdue fans now.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 07:59:12 PM
You're wrong for not wanting to get throttled by a juggernaut in your final game of the season.  Just getting to the playoff is going to warm your heart for decades.  Ignore the embarrassing final score.  You got in!  Celebrate! 
Correct your opinion.  Duh!!
We can all agree that Florida should have folded their program after getting throttled by Nebraska. Surely Nebraska reigns supreme to this day and Florida never accomplished another thing of note in football again.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2023, 08:54:57 PM
If the Alamo Bowl can make you pine for the good ole days, just think what a playoff appearance would do to the pimply teenaged Purdue fans now.
Sam, what's your over/under on the year Purdue makes their first playoff appearance? 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 08:58:16 PM
Sam, what's your over/under on the year Purdue makes their first playoff appearance?
2031, when they win the MAC and go to the Tournament of Champions and face Big South winner Arkansas State on Google Pass
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2023, 09:05:13 PM
2031, when they win the MAC and go to the Tournament of Champions and face Big South winner Arkansas State on Google Pass
No, I honestly meant that as a serious question.

Assumptions: 18-team B1G (no further expansion). No divisions and top two teams make CCG. 9 team conference schedule (since it hasn't been announced to be 10). 12-team playoff with *5* (not 6) auto-bids of the top conference champs since there's only a P4 now, and thus 7 at-large bids.

Knowing the history of CFB, what do you realistically think is the o/u on the first year Purdue makes the playoff?
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 09:09:08 PM
No, I honestly meant that as a serious question.

Assumptions: 18-team B1G (no further expansion). No divisions and top two teams make CCG. 9 team conference schedule (since it hasn't been announced to be 10). 12-team playoff with *5* (not 6) auto-bids of the top conference champs since there's only a P4 now, and thus 7 at-large bids.

Knowing the history of CFB, what do you realistically think is the o/u on the first year Purdue makes the playoff?
I am being serious. You think the networks are going to keep giving 50 million dollars to every school in the Big Ten? I don't. The next go around of conference shenanigans will probably be to break up the ACC, followed by cutting off the chaff from the SEC and Big Ten. Honestly, I'm not sure who gets the chopping block and whether Purdue would be considered or not, but it's coming.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 15, 2023, 09:54:21 PM
(https://media.tenor.com/AkjjDfqlGcoAAAAC/and-thats-the-bottom-line-because-i-said-so.gif)

Ohhh, okay.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 15, 2023, 10:10:02 PM
Yes it does! I mean, when you are wrong you're wrong, and here you are 100%, without a shadow of a doubt, living in a dreamland wrong.

It doesn't matter that you can say, in retrospect, what games matter and what didn't. That doesn't tell you, at the time they are played, when they are played, how they will matter and why. The stakes are uncertain. If you like that, more power to you, though there is a reason pretty much all sports that can have moved away from that system. When the games are played, you don't know if they matter, whether they will matter, and how they will matter. That's the whole problem! The 2016 Big Ten Championship was maybe for something and maybe not for something. While you were watching, you didn't know. It was NOT, win and you advance, which is exciting. It was "win and hope" which is very much more of a wet fart.
You are literally changing your argument midway through your post.

You claim to be arguing for games that matter but then your explanation isn't whether or not or how many games matter but rather whether or not the stakes were 100% known in advance.

But that is not the same thing. 

I've said repeatedly that the intensity of random mid-season games came from the fact that any given game *COULD* derail a NC season.

You completely ignored my take down of your 2016 argument. Your argument was that the PSU over tOSU game didn't matter ignored the fact that the system you advocate would make Penn State's BAD losses to Pitt (bad because they sucked) and Michigan (bad because it was a blowout) meaningless. In your own chosen example you are arguing for one meaningful game (PSU>tOSU) instead of the other 23 games that tOSU and PSU played.

I want LOTS of intense regular season games. We had that but expanded playoffs are depriving us of that because a mid-season loss to PU or MSU will no longer have any chance of depriving the Buckeyes of a spot in the playoffs.

You say you want games to matter but the system you are advocating replaces hundreds of meaningful games with 11.

What @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) , @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , and I are arguing for is hundreds of meaningful games.

What you are arguing for is 11 meaningful games.

I'm being very charitable to say that for you to claim that you are arguing for games that matter is disingenuous.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 15, 2023, 10:30:40 PM

Quote
You claim to be arguing for games that matter but then your explanation isn't whether or not or how many games matter but rather whether or not the stakes were 100% known in advance.

But that is not the same thing. 
It is the same thing. As I have said from the start, the invitational only playoff means that every game is of uncertain value, and you only know how it matters at the end of the season, when they tell you. This is something you have agreed with and in fact said is a positive. Fair enough. But it is in no way changing the fact that in an invitational only playoff, games are of uncertain value until they tell you at the end of the season what they meant. I don't really see what we are even arguing about there.



Quote
You completely ignored my take down of your 2016 argument. Your argument was that the PSU over tOSU game didn't matter ignored the fact that the system you advocate would make Penn State's BAD losses to Pitt (bad because they sucked) and Michigan (bad because it was a blowout) meaningless. In your own chosen example you are arguing for one meaningful game (PSU>tOSU) instead of the other 23 games that tOSU and PSU played.
I did not ignore it at all. I'm simply stating the facts. The 2016 Big Ten championship game, which was to crown the champion of the Big Ten, was clearly of uncertain quality when it came to the playoffs. It was not clear, at the time the game was being played, what it meant for the playoffs. Therefore, it wasn't clear what stakes the game had. You didn't disagree with that, but instead tried to justify the committee's decisions. I (obviously) love the committee's decision because they voted for my team. But it doesn't change the fact that the game, at the time, was more of a data point than a meaningful game.



Quote
I'm being very charitable to say that for you to claim that you are arguing for games that matter is disingenuous.
Well, again, we are talking about tradeoffs. Playoffs are here. They are not going away. They will expand. These are assumptions I am making that I think are very grounded in fact. I am not arguing what is better between the bowl system and BCS and playoffs because I think it is completely irrelevant. The bowl system is over. The past is dead and buried. The only question is what system we are going to use in the future. My concern the have not teams are going to be even more dead and buried because college football people are just giving everything away to television executives with little concern as to the overall health of the sport. My contention is these invitational only playoffs are designed to get the big money, big market teams the most exposure, which will naturally lead to the 30 team super conference NFL Lite.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 15, 2023, 11:05:59 PM
You're completely ignoring what the helmet programs have done to reap their rewards.  They won.  A lot.  For decades.  They invested time and money to build immense stadiums and fuel the motivations to fill them.  

They're not in privileged positions "just because."
Stop acting like it.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 16, 2023, 07:25:59 AM
You're completely ignoring what the helmet programs have done to reap their rewards.  They won.  A lot.  For decades.  They invested time and money to build immense stadiums and fuel the motivations to fill them. 

They're not in privileged positions "just because."
Stop acting like it.
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/nTfdeBvfgzV26zjoFP/200w.gif?cid=6c09b9528dsb5kktrmb161bgh7pxg461rpzgrdgj97l806hw&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=200w.gif&ct=g)
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 16, 2023, 08:58:10 AM
I am being serious. You think the networks are going to keep giving 50 million dollars to every school in the Big Ten? I don't. The next go around of conference shenanigans will probably be to break up the ACC, followed by cutting off the chaff from the SEC and Big Ten. Honestly, I'm not sure who gets the chopping block and whether Purdue would be considered or not, but it's coming.
This thread has taken a weird turn. I remember how it started:

@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) : "We're making a bunch of changes to the sport that seems to be only of benefit to helmet and helmet-adjacent teams and it's driving away superfans of the other teams. This can't be healthy for the sport."

And here we are...

@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) : "I've got just the answer. We'll create a playoff that primarily benefits the helmet and helmet-adjacent teams leading to the death of the bowl system that those fans liked. And then we'll throw them out of their traditional conferences because they're not good enough to move the needle for ratings for the helmet and helmet-adjacent teams and they're diluting the money. And we'll just tell them it's awesome and they'll believe us, because what are they gonna do? Not watch?! Go do something else on Saturdays? No! That'll never happen! It's gonna be great for the health of the sport!"
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: Cincydawg on September 16, 2023, 09:22:36 AM
I am pessimistic.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 16, 2023, 09:55:21 AM
Clearly I'm not articulating well.

This is what has happened:


Quote
We're making a bunch of changes to the sport that seems to be only of benefit to helmet and helmet-adjacent teams and it's driving away superfans of the other teams. This can't be healthy for the sport."
This is what is coming:



Quote
We'll create a playoff that primarily benefits the helmet and helmet-adjacent teams leading to the death of the bowl system that those fans liked. And then we'll throw them out of their traditional conferences because they're not good enough to move the needle for ratings for the helmet and helmet-adjacent teams and they're diluting the money. And we'll just tell them it's awesome and they'll believe us, because what are they gonna do? Not watch?! Go do something else on Saturdays? No! That'll never happen! It's gonna be great for the health of the sport!"
I'm trying to suggest things that could actually happen that move the needle the other way. The response has generally been 2500 word point by point dissertations on why Gameday was better before Lee Corso had a stroke and that they need to bring that guy back.
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 16, 2023, 11:12:46 AM
Clearly I'm not articulating well.

<snip>

I'm trying to suggest things that could actually happen that move the needle the other way. 
I guess I missed those suggestions. 

All I've heard is a defense of the playoff as it is constructed. And perhaps an effort to expand it. I don't know how that moves the needle to make the 80+% of the sport that has no chance at a national championship feel better about being part of a sport that seems now to ONLY be about crowning a champion. 
Title: Re: Rich get richer
Post by: MaximumSam on September 16, 2023, 12:00:30 PM
I guess I missed those suggestions.

All I've heard is a defense of the playoff as it is constructed. And perhaps an effort to expand it. I don't know how that moves the needle to make the 80+% of the sport that has no chance at a national championship feel better about being part of a sport that seems now to ONLY be about crowning a champion.
Well, like I said before, getting back to a system that makes people feel good even if they don't win a championship seems optimal. We already see with the CBB that this is a real thing. I wouldn't advocate for a 64 team playoff, but one with home field advantage and byes makes sense. Purdue going to Georgia in the first round isn't optimal. Hosting TCU in the first round? Hey, that's something.