The game is on ABC at 7:30 PM EDT. The Buckeyes are favored by 14.5 points. I think it will be closer than that and could be one of the best games of the year.If this game is even close to the spread, let alone closer as @Temp430 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=131) suggests, I'll be highly disappointed and I'll have to substantially recalibrate my season expectations for the Buckeyes.
If this game is even close to the spread, let alone closer as @Temp430 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=131) suggests, I'll be highly disappointed and I'll have to substantially recalibrate my season expectations for the Buckeyes.Agreed.
I think that tOSU has a NC caliber team this year and I'm only barely old enough to remember a time when ND was a difficult game for a NC caliber team. I expect the home team to win in a laugher.
And Michigan still sucks. (It's that time of year). ;)some seasons are year round.
It's the same spread (14.5) as Ohio State - Oregon last year.:o SHUT.....UP......YOU
If this game is even close to the spread, let alone closer as @Temp430 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=131) suggests, I'll be highly disappointed and I'll have to substantially recalibrate my season expectations for the Buckeyes.All due respect Medina- but I don’t know where your getting your confidence from. I’m not saying that you may not turn out to be correct, I’m just curious as hell how you’re there already.
I think that tOSU has a NC caliber team this year and I'm only barely old enough to remember a time when ND was a difficult game for a NC caliber team. I expect the home team to win in a laugher.
All due respect Medina- but I don’t know where your getting your confidence from. I’m not saying that you may not turn out to be correct, I’m just curious as hell how you’re there already.Defense:
The Buckeyes we’re horrible last season on 3rd down conversions on BOTH sides of the ball.
on defense the issue was pretty obvious and that is because they ran the same exact formation on virtually every third down it was super easy for good teams like Oregon and Michigan to manipulate them, and outmanned them at the point of attack on running plays, or no well ahead of time before the snap where the openings were for a quick pass place success.
so enter the new defensive coordinator who has a reputation for doing extremely well at disguising the defense and running multiple different defenses from the same look. Yes I think eventually that should improve it but I’m not buying it until I actually see it in production.
On offense, Ohio State was incredibly predictable. I’ve been watching a lot of film study and it’s actually kind of sad. In the pistol formation they didn’t throw a single pass so the other team knew it was a run. Just look at the Michigan in Oregon games and all the critical third downs where it was third and two or third and one, and the buckeyes got stuffed. And it wasn’t just those two games, Penn State in Nebraska and other teams as wellOffense:
so enter Justin Fry, new office of line coach who has a reputation of creative blocking schemes and physicality on the office of line. Also this season we’re going to have two guards and two tackles as opposed to four tackles, so I do expect improvement there as well but I won’t believe it until I see it on the field.
The Buckeyes we’re horrible last season on 3rd down conversions on BOTH sides of the ball.There was a point during THE GAME last year when the Buckeyes faced a VERY long 2nd down. IIRC it was 2nd at 25. As longtime Ohio State fans you and I both know that for most of our years of watching Ohio State a 2nd and 25 was an opportunity to go get some food or a frosty beverage because Bruce/Cooper/Tressel was going to minimize the damage and punt.
So medina, I'm predicting the Buckeyes to allow 27 points. That wouldn't be worse than last year as they allowed 35 to Oregon, 42 to Utah and 42 to Michigan. But it's not elite level either. So it can be better without also being a top 25 defense (at least to start).I know you know this, but I want to point it out anyway because it is important to how I would view the hypothetical 38-27 win.
So with a 38-27 win, would you need to re-evaluate your thoughts on the Buckeyes? How big are you expecting to win, and maybe more importantly, are you expecting the defense to hold ND to 10 or less?
What’s wild is Olave, Wilson, and Jameson we’re all top 15 nfl draft picks, and JSN is better than all of them imo.He's certainly on at least an equal trajectory if he maintains and I hope you're right
Notre Dame has the style and the players to slow the game down. They can hold the ball for long periods of time even without scoring.Seems like ND always has quality interior linemen
They also have the defensive personnel and style to make Ohio State Dr. the whole field.
Those things alone point to a tighter game.
I will be happy with a win even if it is 24-21.
I'm still a bit salty about that 1935 game.How far did you drive to get there?
How far did you drive to get there?My grandpa actually did go to the game, and was supposedly quite upset afterwards. I mean back then, a fumble out of bounds went to the other team. The Buckeyes fumbled out of bounds when running out the clock and blew a 13-0 lead in the 4th quarter.
at least 17?
17 doesn't seem like an absurd chasm
Depends on how it happens.
If, for example, the Buckeyes were up by only 3 points with 3 minutes left in the game, and the Irish had possession and were driving, but then had an unlucky turnover returned for a TD... and then, after the ensuing kickoff, on the Irish next drive, a fumble on their own 3 or 4 yard line, recovered by the Bckeyes and the Buckeyes could just kneel the ball and end the game, but instead decide to use all of their starters to drive in another TD with a few seconds left to make the score look worse...
...then no, I wouldn't call that a chasm.
I expect a straight up, steamrolling. No frills. Just one team dominating the other, soundly.Welcome to the board. :)
I didn't think I'd have to spell all of that out, and it would be assumed.
I expect a straight up, steamrolling. No frills. Just one team dominating the other, soundly.Teach you to assume anything around here. You always gotta spell it out.
I didn't think I'd have to spell all of that out, and it would be assumed.
Teach you to assume anything around here. You always gotta spell it out.
I expect you're right.
Just saying, not all 17 point wins, are a beatdown or represent a "chasm."
How far did you drive to get there?Only about 100 miles to Columbus for me but I'd have to drive 88 mph in this car to make that game:
Once you get to the SEC, you won't have to be so detail oriented.LoL, we'll debate anything here and we actually had essentially this same discussion earlier in this very thread.
Chasm means ass whipping from now on. Period. :)
My grandpa actually did go to the game, and was supposedly quite upset afterwards. I mean back then, a fumble out of bounds went to the other team. The Buckeyes fumbled out of bounds when running out the clock and blew a 13-0 lead in the 4th quarter.Wow, my Grandparents attended as well. At least I'm fairly certain that they did.
In marquee home out of conference games, OSU is 1-3 since 2014, with the lone win against Cincinnati and losses to Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and Oregon. :overy surprising. honestly early losses seem to have helped OSU- they get stuff figured out and then go on crazy runs.
I had forgotten about that stat, fascinating indeed. Two of those were shocking upsets. Didn't they also lose to Texas at home back when?Texas and USC under Tressel, yes.
ND is not chopped liver despite the two TD spread.
very surprising. honestly early losses seem to have helped OSU- they get stuff figured out and then go on crazy runs.First, Cincinnati isn't a "marquee" game so the Buckeyes aren't 1-3 in such OOC games at home since beating Miami in 2010, they are 0-3:
All due respect Medina- but I don’t know where your getting your confidence from. I’m not saying that you may not turn out to be correct, I’m just curious as hell how you’re there already.This comment has been grating on me all week because while it wasn't stated explicitly, I think the implication is that I'm some wildly and irrationally optimistic "homer" and here comes @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) as the rational voice reason. That is exactly the opposite of reality.
Lastly, it’s not uncommon for Ohio State to take several games to get into a rhythm on both sides of the ball. Rarely do they look super good in the early games.
To say that they’re an NC caliber team in my opinion is very premature. Certainly you could say they have the potential to be there but until I see something with my own eyes I won’t actually believe it. Therefore I expect a close game. I would love to be wrong about all of this.
This comment has been grating on me all week because while it wasn't stated explicitly, I think the implication is that I'm some wildly and irrationally optimistic "homer" and here comes @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) as the rational voice reason. That is exactly the opposite of reality.Wow. I think I just got told off.
The national media and coaches both have Ohio State at #2. That isn't a bunch of home team fanboys, those are people from all over the country.
The wise guys in Vegas say tOSU by more than two TD's.
Closer to home, in our Power Rankings all but one voter has tOSU at #1. The lone exception is a pessimistic Ohio State fan. Those who have tOSU #1 include fans of Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Alabama, and Indiana.
Nothing you said is extremely unlikely but all of your analysis leans toward the worst-case-scenario for Ohio State. The internal inconsistency is glaring:
Ohio State replaces most of their defensive staff so you assume that it will take a long time to learn the new system. Certainly possible but Notre Dame replaces not only their defensive staff but also their offensive staff and their HC and you apparently think that their transition will be completely seamless.
It is entirely possible that tOSU's defensive coaching transition will involve painful growing pains and it is entirely possible that Notre Dame's coaching transition will be seamless but a more realistic and unbiased analyst would assume either:
- That both will involve painful growing pains, or
- That both will be seamless.
You've chosen to assume the worst for tOSU in both cases. That isn't the rational voice of reason, it is the pessimistic view, I call it the anti-homer view.
As I said above, nothing you have said is altogether ridiculous or outside the realm of reasonable possibilities so you *COULD* end up being right. The thing is that you ALWAYS take the pessimistic view of the Buckeyes so if you do end up being right it won't be because yours is the voice of reason, it will be for the same reason that broken clocks are right twice a day.
Wow. I think I just got told off.You are most definitely NOT optimistic. As recounted above the national media, national coaches, wise guys, and posters here all generally see tOSU as a NC Contender.
Not sure why. I am not pessimistic about My Buckeyes. I am quite optimistic
I just am not assuming they will walk out on the field and be as good defensively as they may be later.
Sorry if a different opinion grates on you.
This comment has been grating on me all week because while it wasn't stated explicitly, I think the implication is that I'm some wildly and irrationally optimistic "homer" and here comes @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) as the rational voice reason. That is exactly the opposite of reality.Maybe that wasn't how you meant it, but that was how I read it and it bothered me specifically because it inverts reality. In reality my view is the consensus of the national media, the national coaches, the board members here, the wise guys, etc. You are the one with a view wildly different from all of us.
| ***GAME OF THE WEEK*** |
| #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes |
| 7:30 - Columbus, OH - ABC |
| Such is college football right now, that even a matchup between a pair of top 5 teams, a pair of helmet schools, meeting in a season opener, doesn't feel like it has the oomph it should. Compared to the Ohio State-Texas series nearly two decades ago, this just feels different. Because there are CFP contenders, and there are national title contenders. And the gap has never felt larger. Notre Dame is a CFP contender. Ohio State is a national title contender. Ryan Day thinks he plugged the leak, his defense, by hiring away Jim Knowles for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys ranked # in the nation in ypg allowed, ppg allowed, and #1 in sacks and explosive play defense. Nobody is going to confuse this with Tressel ball, but what Knowles was able to do, with an offensive first team like Oklahoma State, should be a good sign for a team with an even more explosive offense, and FAR more talent on defense. Certainly more defensive talent on defense than they showed against Oregon or Michigan last year. I think Marcus Freeman is going to kill it at Notre Dame. I think he is going to level up from what Brian Kelly did at Notre Dame. Kelly maximized the talent he had, but Freeman is a great coach, and is, I think going to both increase the level of talent, and maintain the level of coaching. That is what held the Irish back on the big stage. They simply couldn't talent up with Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, or Clemson. Freeman gives them a better chance to do that, but it's going to take a year or two. Sophomore Tyler Buchner will challenge that Buckeye defense. He has a talented group of receivers, led by Lorenzo Styles, but is only a sophomore, with limited experience. If this game was in November (and maybe in South Bend), I'd give them a chance. But this is his first game as THE guy. And as good as his group of receivers is, and they are, I'm not sure any of them would even break into the Buckeyes' top 3 group. With a Heisman trophy finalist throwing to them. |
| OHIO STATE 37, NOTRE DAME 24 |
You are most definitely NOT optimistic. As recounted above the national media, national coaches, wise guys, and posters here all generally see tOSU as a NC Contender.Ok. I will say it differently
Therefore, that is a reasonable expectation. Your projection of basically "I just hope they beat ND" is pessimistic.
I'm cautiously optimistic about the defense but for this game I'm not sure how much it matters. Last year's team went 11-2 with a crap defense and I think this year's offense will be better so even with no defensive improvement they should beat a Notre Dame team with a brand new first-time HC.
It isn't a different opinion that grated on me, it was the presentation. As I said above, I read your response to my first post in this thread as:Maybe that wasn't how you meant it, but that was how I read it and it bothered me specifically because it inverts reality. In reality my view is the consensus of the national media, the national coaches, the board members here, the wise guys, etc. You are the one with a view wildly different from all of us.
You might turn out to be right and your opinion certainly doesn't bother me. What did bother me was the implication that I was living alone in some fanatic's fantasy land. The national consensus is by definition NOT a lone fanatic's fantasy land. It could certainly end up being wrong (it usually is for between one and three of the preseason top-10) but it isn't irrational or unrealistic.
You obviously disagree with the national consensus but please don't state that in a way that implies that I am the outlier. In fact YOU are the outlier.
If you disagree with the consensus then say so. Say "I think the AP voters, the Coaches poll voters, the Wise Guys in Vegas, and most members of this board are wrong. I think the Buckeyes are probably a 7-5 (or whatever your projection would be) team this year."
https://twitter.com/HOMAGE/status/1566040814664519688?s=20&t=MAeXH3FrUMeVDIiJwudIDAI was there in the student section.
Fully expecting UGA/Bama in the CG. This Buckeye team is worse than last year's.It’s halftime. And you call me a pessimist?
It’s halftime. And you call me a pessimist?Absolutely pathetic performance on both sides of the ball. Bucks now competing to be the team doing the least with most outside of Austin.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba out from that nice forearm to the head on the fist series.So the head shot caused the leg injury?
Defenseless. Thought that was illegal.
Absolutely pathetic performance on both sides of the ball. Bucks now competing to be the team doing the least with most outside of Austin.Now I understand why you think I’m a pessimist. I am ecstatic about what I just saw.
Now I understand why you think I’m a pessimist. I am ecstatic about what I just saw.Maybe our difference of opinion has more to do with Notre Dame than Ohio State. This is my feeling exactly:
if you would have told me that two of Ohio states starting three receivers would not play tonight, and they would hold the opponents to 10 points and 2 1/2 yards rushing for Carry, and we would average 5 yards a carry , I would’ve been jumping for joy.
They proved me wrong on all three things I was pessimistic about. Number one -the defense is way ahead of what I thought they would be. Number two -they could stop a good running game with a good offensive line. Number three they could dominate in crunch time by running the ball right at the opponent.
I’m not sure if I think ND is better than expected or OSU worse.I don't think much of Notre Dame and think that their top-5 rank was ludicrous but of course I could be wrong. Unfortunately we will not know for a while because Notre Dame's next quality opponent visits in November.
Won’t know enough about the Buckeyes until 9/24.
Now I understand why you think I’m a pessimist. I am ecstatic about what I just saw.HB help me out I know Smith-Njigba is one,but after last year's exodus of Olave and Wilson who were the other two?
if you would have told me that two of Ohio states starting three receivers would not play tonight, and they would hold the opponents to 10 points and 2 1/2 yards rushing for Carry, and we would average 5 yards a carry , I would’ve been jumping for joy.
I think I’m confused by both teams after watching the game. I’m not sure if I think ND is better than expected or OSU worse. Once thing is for sure, Stroud is like a more athletic and higher version of Cade McNamera. Stroud is an excellent game manager that doesn’t make mistakes. Very likable kid as well.Mario - S'UP
Won’t know enough about the Buckeyes until 9/24.
HB help me out I know Smith-Njigba is one,but after last year's exodus of Olave and Wilson who were the other two?They ran all through fall camp with Njigba, Harrison, and Fleming starting.
Absolutely pathetic performance on both sides of the ball. Bucks now competing to be the team doing the least with most outside of Austin.I think we all can recall in the past how Game One was either inspiringly great, or depressingly awful, and the season turned around, and around, and around. Nobody is likely quite as good, or as bad, as they seemed. ND could be an 11-1 team, as noted, we don't know, or 8-4. The win part can't be changed, OSU won, end of story. How good they looked can be changed.
Mario - S'UPGood to see you around my friend.
Ohio State fans should be very encouraged by that W.watched most of the 2nd half and it was much more encouraging than what I listened to in the 1st half. Notre Dame was pretty physical,lets hope that's not a trend.What ever adjustments needed to be made Knowles apparently made them so that's a good sign as on the field the teams appeared evenly matched
The new OSU defense put the clamps down and Stroud was efficient and got the job done- even without his main go to guy. OSU also ran the ball really well.
ND isn’t a great team- but they aren’t some tomato can either. Probably a solid 8-10 win team. And Week 1 is always a son of a bitch where the kinks are getting worked out.
yeah that photo is infamous, even though he didn't score.That is my all time favorite picture of any Buckeye game. It is a classic.
(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2022/08/25/NCOD/090b4f25-5a10-4d2d-9078-b0f8dd7abbc9-IMG_Syndication_The_Colu_1_1_5V10302TG_L1811170040.JPG)
Good to see you around my friend.And you, sir.
I think we all can recall in the past how Game One was either inspiringly great, or depressingly awful, and the season turned around, and around, and around. Nobody is likely quite as good, or as bad, as they seemed. ND could be an 11-1 team, as noted, we don't know, or 8-4. The win part can't be changed, OSU won, end of story. How good they looked can be changed.This is always the complication with an early game. We are evaluating both teams but we don't have much to go on for either one so there are a lot of guesses necessarily being made.
(The same of course is true for UGA and everyone else except Nebraska.)
IMHO it took Day way too long to realize that he appears to have a powerful rushing attack but it appears to be there. Williams and Henderson averaged just over six yards per carry with a combined 29 for 175 and those figures aren't propped up by a few long ones as their longest carries were only 15 and 16 respectively.(https://i.imgur.com/oFYYaTb.png)
It all reminds me of last season when Georgia used a pick six to beat Clemson 10 to 3 in the first game.Help me understand this:
Remember, Ohio State has a five week stretch where they play Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State, and Penn State. That’s four very physical teams.
From what I saw last night I think their chances of being competitive in all those games is greater than it would have been last year to be honest.
And you, sir.I’m battling some things. Still in the Cleveland area. Wife and are are 26 Months into building a new house. 3rd child on way. End of this month I have to have brain surgery to remove a meningioma and cavernous malformation on opposite sides of my head. That being said, it’s given me time to lay around and interact with the fine people here.
Where you living these days? What you up to?
I’m battling some things. Still in the Cleveland area. Wife and are are 26 Months into building a new house. 3rd child on way. End of this month I have to have brain surgery to remove a meningioma and cavernous malformation on opposite sides of my head. That being said, it’s given me time to lay around and interact with the fine people here.This deserves it's own thread.
This deserves it's own thread.Well, we are all starting to get up in age now. Maybe so. Lord knows how many of us have had our own battles.
Mario, I hope the surgery is successful and recovery is quick and complete. Dealing with that while a third child is on the way and building a house, wow. Good luck to you and your wife.
(https://i.imgur.com/oFYYaTb.png)
This game and the Big Ten title game against Northwestern in 2020, Day has been way too slow to run the ball when it has been effective. This seems to be the one main knock against his in-game coaching, similar to how Urban would revert to QB runs when the game got tight. The good news is he finally starting running it later in those games, and the Buckeyes were able to win.Some perspective:
Help me understand this:Last season- OHio State struggled with teams that had these 3 things:
First, I'm not trying to be difficult, I'm honestly asking where you are coming from here.
When I first read the bolded part, I thought it was ludicrous. Against the four eams you listed the Buckeyes recent performances:If you are (or were) seriously worried that Ohio State wouldn't be competitive against those teams I think that is pessimistic to the point of ridiculousness. I don't *THINK* that is what you meant though. Rereading it I realized that with the "in all of those games" it could be read to mean more a competitive chance to sweep the group.
- Wisconsin: 8 game win streak and 11 of last 12
- Iowa: won 5 of last 6
- Michigan State: 6 game win streak
- Penn State: 5 game win streak and 9 of last 10
I’m battling some things. Still in the Cleveland area. Wife and are are 26 Months into building a new house. 3rd child on way. End of this month I have to have brain surgery to remove a meningioma and cavernous malformation on opposite sides of my head. That being said, it’s given me time to lay around and interact with the fine people here.Good Luck
Oh man.Thanks Badge. My wife is a surgical nurse for the Cleveland Clinic, so thankfully we had a lot of the right connections and with who I consider one of the best neurosurgeons in the country. On a positive, they don’t think they are cancerous and they believe they can get both in one surgery so that’s a huge win because the early CT scan was not as promising.
I wish you nothing but the best outcomes, and hope you found a great neurosurgeon.
What's up with the house? Supply chain stuff?
MB - although this could be its own thread, I always welcome a chance to sabotage a Buckeye thread. 😜
I'll allow it.You Poultroons
:)
Last season- OHio State struggled with teams that had these 3 things:I think I have a better idea of where you are coming from now.
1 were highly talented
2. Could run the ball physically
3. Had Offensive coordinators who knew how to take advantage of their completely predictable, vanilla defensive scheme.
They lost 2 of those games and nearly lost 2 others ( Utah, Nebraska)
I assumed they would improve those things this season with the coaching changes to defense and the offensive line. But I didn’t know how long those things would take to be visible.
I also thought, and said, ND will be as good as anyone on the schedule on both lines, so they would slow the game down and run clock and make OSU drive the whole field patiently. (PFF has ND listed as one of the nations best O-lines and D-lines)
OSU showed dramatic improvement on running when the opponent knows your running, stopping the run, and making it difficult to call offensive plays, because the defense is disguised.
when you have a 5 week stretch- of 4 teams known to be physical on your schedule- that can wear a team down. ( Wisconsin, Iowa, MSU, and Penn State)
Based on what I saw Saturday, they look substantially more prepared to wether that than they did last season.
The winning trends you mention are great. But it won’t mean anything during the actual game. Just like their winning streak against UM last season didn’t help them from being physically pushed around all day.
Why is this so hard for you to understand?
Stats tell a story, but there is nuance and momentum and human aspects to the real games.
Did I not call the style of game versus ND correctly? Again- look at Georgia’s first game last season- a 10-3 win over Clemson.
Teams look different in week 5-6 than they do in Week 1.
Now if they don’t look any different against the lessor teams in terms of offensive explosiveness- I will start to feel differently. But based on that one game, how it played out, the quality of the opponent- I am very optimistic that they will be hard to beat by any style of team.
I think I have a better idea of where you are coming from now.Completely agree. Josh Proctor blew that first play, barely but it cost him playing time since Lathan Ransom replace him and never left the field
When I first read your "chance to be competitive" comment I read it as doom-and-gloom, "I hope the Buckeyes are good enough to compete with MSU" and I thought that was outright ridiculous. I know streaks don't matter in-game but for a fan of a team that has won six straight against the Spartans to hope his team is competitive against them is kinda silly.
Teams definitely look different down the stretch than on Labor Day weekend even without personnel issues (Fleming, JSN) so I'm hoping for improvement mainly on three things:
- Limiting big plays defensively: They weren't bad at this on Saturday but that first play stung and they were oh-so-close to blowing that up. First, they almost got Buchner. Second, they were in position to bat the ball down. Third, the safety who came up to cover the WR hit the WR right as he caught the ball, trying to break up the pass. That was a mistake on his part. If there is someone behind you to contain then go for the INT/PBU but if not (as in this case) then you shouldn't take that risk because if you miss then you give up a ton of yards (54 in this case and the catch/contact was only about 8 yards from the LOS).
- Explosiveness offensively in the running game. Henderson and Williams combined for 29 carries for 175 yards which is fine. That is an average of just over 6 per but their four longest runs were 16, 15, 12, and 12. Break one for an extra 60 in there and you get 29 for 235 for an average of over 8.
- Explosiveness offensively in the passing game. I assume this will come with JSN and Fleming returning but averaging <10 per catch and <7 per attempt isn't very scary to opposing defenses.
MB - although this could be its own thread, I always welcome a chance to sabotage a Buckeye thread. 😜