CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 29, 2021, 11:36:17 PM
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Link to last week's results (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-8-24536/).
Votes through @Abba (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=65) , 15 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/OoHmjtH.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/Mtg9ayw.png)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/AP82SKN.png)
GOTY progression:
- Preseason: #1 tOSU vs #2 UW not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 1: #1 tOSU vs #2 PSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 2: #1 Iowa vs #2 PSU 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 3: #1 PSU vs #2 Iowa 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 4: #1 PSU at #2 tOSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 5: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 6: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 7: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 8: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 9: #1 tOSU vs #2 MSU 11/20 in Columbus
COTY Progression:
- Tucker with Locksley and Schiano chasing
- Tucker with Schiano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker with Schciano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Frost and Ferentz well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Harbaugh and Bert well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
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I have no idea where to rank Michigan. In five of their games they've looked like one of the B1G's best and maybe more:
- Demolished WMU
- Demolished Washington
- Demolished NIU
- Demolished Wisconsin
- Demolished Northwestern
The other three games they barley look like they are in the top half of the league:
- Struggled with Rutgers
- Struggled with Nebraska
- Lost to MSU
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Remember when Iowa had the #3 ranked team in the country and played PSU, which had the #4 ranked team. That was less than a month ago,, but it seems like it was much longer than that.
1. OSU. - survives its first big test in a long time.
2. MSU - May have a Heisman candidate at RB. MSU needs to watch out for the trap game.
3. Mich - blowing a 16-pt lead obviously is not good, but in the end its jus a 4-pt loss on the road to a top-10 team.
4. Wisc - playing better now than early in the season. Helps to get turnovers instead of giving them.
5. PSU - probably does not deserve to be this high after losing 3 in a row, but they still look like a good team to me
6. Minn - the early loss to Bowling Green is just looking weirder and weirder each week.
7. Pur - not sure if Purdue is really #7 but they did beat Iowa.
8. Iowa - early blowout wins over Ind, IowaSt, MD, don't look so impressive right now. And even though Iowa only has 2 losses overall, its the way they lost their last 2 games so badly is why I am dropping them this low.
9. Neb - the little engine that could not. Neb has an awful record, but they are always just this close to winning. Scott Frost just can't get them over that hill.
10. MD - has a couple close wins over bad teams
11. ILL - about half the time, they play good enough to beat a better team, then half the time, they just look bad.
12. NW - ranking teams near the bottom is getter harder.
13. Rut. - finally gets a win.
14. Ind - its always a mystery why a good team seems to fall apart, but baby, you are the only winless team left.
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Man getting tougher
1. Ohio State: Not exactly a dominant performance, but they squeezed out a win against a good team. We'll just ignore the Illinois loss for PSU and say, yeah, they are good. This was actually the team I thought I'd see before the season - a good offense with some inconsistent QB play and a defense that is strong up front and shaky on the back end. Plus we got a Piesman moment.
2. Michigan State: They just keep coming. Kenneth Walker is an absolute beast, and the quarterback and receivers are legit good. The defense is here and there, like another team right ahead of them. They were a treat to watch this week.
3. Michigan: Can't really bone them for losing a tight game on the road to the #2 team. They are a very solid team and probably should have beaten MSU, but such is life. It's not like they have any glaring weaknesses, and they can beat any other team in the conference.
4. Penn State: A difficult team to rank considering their losing streak, and two of their losses come from teams below them. But we'll go with the idea that losing Clifford cost them the Iowa game and he was so shaken up it cost them the Illinois game too. That's the ticket. Lack of running game is the big problem here.
5. Wisconsin: A lift this week - the defense has always been great, and the running game has rounded into a more recognizable form. Still deficient at quarterback, but defense and running are worth an awful lot.
6. Minnesota: Quietly rising, and all alone in first place in the West, the schedule is favorable. Still trying to figure out how they lost to BG.
7. Purdue: Another team quietly getting it done, though the next two weeks are rough.
8. Iowa: Defense couldn't get it done against Wiscy. And by get it done I mean pitch a shutout, because this offense is straight up bad.
9. Nebraska: Poor Scott Frost. I'm just hoping they don't put it all together for OSU.
10. Maryland: They just sort fell into the bottom.
11. Illinois: Stay above Rutgers solely because they beat Penn State.
12. Rutgers: Eked out a win, so they get a bump this week.
13. Northwestern: Still bad.
14. Indiana: Also still bad.
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Minnesota
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. Penn State
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Rutgers
12. Illinoi
13. Indiana
14. Northwestern
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1) Ohio State (1)
2) Michigan State (4)
3) Michigan (2)
4) Wisconsin (5)
5) Penn State (6)
6) Minnesota (7)
7) Purdue (9)
8) Nebraska (8)
9) Iowa (3)
10) Maryland (10)
11) Indiana (11)
12) Northwestern (12)
13) Rutgers (14)
14) Illinois (13)
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1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Minnesota
5. Wisconsin
6. Purdue
7. Iowa
8. Penn State
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Rutgers
12. Illinois
14. Northwestern
14. Indiana
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- Buckeyes
- Spartans
- Wolverines
- Nittany Lions
- Badgers
- Hawkeyes
- Gophers
- Boilermakers
- Fighting Illini
- Terrapins
- Scarlet Knights
- Cornhuskers
- Hoosiers
- Wildcats
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1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
LoL
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1 MSU
2 OSU
3 Wisconsin
4 PSU
5 Michigan
6 Minnesota
7 Iowa
8 Purdue
9 Maryland
10 Illinois
11 Nwestern
12 Nebraska
13 Rutgers
14 Indiana
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Minnesota
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. Penn State
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Rutgers
12. Illinoi
13. Indiana
14. Northwestern
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Everyone but me is putting Nebraska in their Top 10, when their only wins are Buffalo, Fordham and Northwestern, and they still have to play Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa.
Many are slotting them ahead of Illinois, who beat Nebraska and Penn State.
Just bizarre.
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Everyone but me is putting Nebraska in their Top 10, when their only wins are Buffalo, Fordham and Northwestern, and they still have to play Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa.
Many are slotting them ahead of Illinois, who beat Nebraska and Penn State.
Just bizarre.
Didn't lose to Rutgers
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Rutgers would beat Nebraska by four points, and it would be dubbed a "good loss."
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head to head doesn't always determine the "better" team
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Rutgers would beat Nebraska by four points, and it would be dubbed a "good loss."
This is what makes it hard to figure out Nebraska.
If you just look at W's and L's they have a LOT of L's and the teams they have beaten aren't very good.
Oddly, however, every one of their losses was competitive, they were all within one score.
The loss to Illinois says #14. The close games with OU, MSU, and M say EASILY top 10.
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I think its Illinois thats screwing up all the attempts to rank teams based on head to head results.
ILL is probably worse than PSU and Neb, but somehow beat both teams. ILL is probably better than Rutgers and maybe even MD, but somehow lost to both teams.
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Illinois has plenty of help
upsets happen and then some teams are just vastly overrated
college football is crazy that way
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LoL
Well... MSU hasn't lost, and has the best win. #1
TTUN lost on the road to a higher ranked team than OSU lost to at home. #2
OSU's vaunted offense was reduced to a field goal kickin' machine.
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Well... MSU hasn't lost, and has the best win. #1
TTUN lost on the road to a higher ranked team than OSU lost to at home. #2
OSU's vaunted offense was reduced to a field goal kickin' machine.
MSU went to Bloomington, trailed at halftime, never led by more than eight, and escaped with a five point win, 20-15.
The next week tOSU went to Bloomington, scored 44 points in the first half, rested starters in the second half and won by 47 points, 54-7.
Ohio State went to Piscataway, scored 24 before Rutgers got on the board, led 45-6 at halftime, and won by 39, 52-13.
The next week MSU went to Piscataway, was tied at the first/second quarter break, was within one score at halftime and won by 18, 31-13.
Now I'm not saying that the above is completely definitive. It is POSSIBLE that Indiana and Rutgers both happened to have the worst game of their seasons against tOSU while also having the best game of their seasons a week earlier/later against MSU.
Occam's razor suggests otherwise.
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1. OSU
2. MSU
3. Mich
4. Wisc
5. PSU
6. Minn
7. Pur
8. Iowa
9. Maryland
10. Illinois
11. Nebraska
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana - When you are in the Big Ten you are no slouch. The difference between 2021 and '20 are marginal. Healthy QBs would help.
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NOT my ranking, just for discussion/consideration:
Comparative performance ranking:
- 1.5 tOSU (best of five against each of PSU, MN, UMD, IU, and RU)
- 2.6 UW
- 2.6 MN
- 2.9 PU
- 3.0 UNL
- 3.2 M
- 3.2 PSU
- 3.5 IA
- 3.6 MSU
- 4.1 RU
- 4.2 IL
- 4.6 IU
- 5.0 UMD
- 5.0 NU
Method:
- All B1G teams have played five league games except UNL and IL who have played six each.
- UNL's and IL's opponents are ranked 1-->6 based on scoring differential against.
- All other B1G teams' opponents are ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 based on scoring differential against.
- The average ranking is the number reported above (1.5 for tOSU, 2.6 for UW, etc).
Samples:
Ohio State:
- 1.5 Best of five against PSU
- 1.5 Best of five against MN
- 1.5 Best of five against UMD
- 1.5 Best of five against IU
- 1.5 Best of five against RU
- 1.5 Average
Nebraska:
- 2.5 Second of five against M
- 1.5 Best of five against MSU
- 3 Tied for 2nd/3rd of five against MN
- 3.5 Third of five against PU
- 6 Worst of six against IL
- 1.5 Best of five against NU
- 3.0 Average
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NOT my ranking, just for discussion/consideration:
Comparative performance ranking:
- 1.5 tOSU (best of five against each of PSU, MN, UMD, IU, and RU)
- 2.6 UW
- 2.6 MN
- 2.9 PU
- 3.0 UNL
- 3.2 M
- 3.2 PSU
- 3.5 IA
- 3.6 MSU
- 4.1 RU
- 4.2 IL
- 4.6 IU
- 5.0 UMD
- 5.0 NU
Method:
- All B1G teams have played five league games except UNL and IL who have played six each.
- UNL's and IL's opponents are ranked 1-->6 based on scoring differential against.
- All other B1G teams' opponents are ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 based on scoring differential against.
- The average ranking is the number reported above (1.5 for tOSU, 2.6 for UW, etc).
Samples:
Ohio State:
- 1.5 Best of five against PSU
- 1.5 Best of five against MN
- 1.5 Best of five against UMD
- 1.5 Best of five against IU
- 1.5 Best of five against RU
- 1.5 Average
Nebraska:
- 2.5 Second of five against M
- 1.5 Best of five against MSU
- 3 Tied for 2nd/3rd of five against MN
- 3.5 Third of five against PU
- 6 Worst of six against IL
- 1.5 Best of five against NU
- 3.0 Average
Always a very interesting way to look at things and a possible way to sort out teams that may be over-rated or under-rated.
It looks to me like you can group teams into 3 different clumps. #1 OSU is in a class by itself. #2 to #9 are clumped close enough together you can say they have not separated themselves yet from that group. And #10 to #14 seem to have enough separation you can consider them to be in another tier.
On the other hand, the fact that MSU keeps winning close games and Neb keeps losing close games needs to be taken into account some how too. Actually winning the game does matter.
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What's better? To always lose close games like Neb, or occasionally play great like ILL? Which team would you rather play? Neb might be a better team but ILL does a better job finding ways to win when they have the chance. I think I would rather have my team play Neb instead of ILL if you want a win.
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- Ohio State - Penn St still has a good defense and the Buckeyes put up 26 pts on their defense. Somewhat concerned that the running game took a while to get going, but I attribute that to everyone putting up their best fight against tOSU.
- Michigan State - Good home win vs a good UM team. They will be tough down the stretch could give tOSU a run for their money.
- Michigan - Played a good game for 3 1-/2 quarters. Cade McNamara looked better than he has in the past and gave this team an actual passing game.
- Wisconsin - Finally coming to life and Mertz didn't do anything to stop them this week.
- Minnesota - Looking good against the lower half of the B1G. Can they keep it going against their tougher opponents? We'll see.
- Penn State - Did not look like the team that lost to Illinois the prior week. A healthy Clifford is the key to this teams. That and a very good defense.
- Iowa - What happened to the Hawks? Still playing good (not great) defense, but their offense is nowhere to be found.
- Purdue - This team is looking better every week. Their offense is starting to click and their defense is pretty good.
- Maryland - They can beat the lower ranked conf teams. Still a long way from being a contender.
- Rutgers - May be the best of the rest.
- Illinois - Who knows where to rank them? They are a Jekyll and Hyde team.
- Nebraska - While they may be competitive with the good teams, they still cannot find a way to win. At some point, they need to fall to their rightful place in the ranking. For me, that is this week.
- Indiana - Not have either of their top 2 QB's is really hurting them, but the backup did play well this week. Just not a good team right now.
- Northwestern - As much as I have respect for Fitz and hate to see them here, they really are not good.
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Looks about right to me, the bottom half is not very good it seems. Maybe Purdue is crawling out of that basement?
It's still Ohio State at the top by a fair margin to me, Michigan State is going to get stopped at some point, maybe unexpectedly.
A UGA-OSU matchup would be interesting.
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Penn State
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Rutgers
12. Illinois
13. Indiana
14. Northwestern
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What's better? To always lose close games like Neb, or occasionally play great like ILL? Which team would you rather play? Neb might be a better team but ILL does a better job finding ways to win when they have the chance. I think I would rather have my team play Neb instead of ILL if you want a win.
as long as Martinez is playing, the opponent has a great chance to get the win
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Last week in parenthesis
- OHIO STATE (1) - offense didn't quite look Death Starish, but the PSU secondary is legit
- MICHIGAN STATE (4) - that's one way to re-ignite a Heisman candidacy
- MICHIGAN (2) - still just an MSU loss in Columbus away from controlling their own BTT and CFP destiny
- PENN STATE (5) - that effort a week earlier is a 35 point win
- WISCONSIN (6) - and just like that, it's looking like Wisconsin is going to be back in Indy
- MINNESOTA (7) - how many running backs does this team have
- IOWA (3) - even the skeptics didn't think the offense was going to bottom out this badly
- PURDUE (8) - nice bounceback
- MARYLAND (12) - bottom six are bad AND inconsistent, so I'm just using the composite computer rankings, I have zero handle on it
- NEBRASKA (11) -
- RUTGERS (14) -
- ILLINOIS (10) -
- INDIANA (9) -
- NORTHWESTERN (13) -
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Last week in parenthesis
- MICHIGAN (2) - still just an MSU loss in Columbus away from controlling their own BTT and CFP destiny
I think you are right,, but they would need MSU to lose twice to be sure.
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I think you are right,, but they would need MSU to lose twice to be sure.
Yes, assuming Ohio State beats Nebraska and Purdue, that's true
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Yes, assuming Ohio State beats Nebraska and Purdue, that's true
I checked. Nope. In a three way tie at 8-1 between M, MSU, and TOSU it looks like tOSU would win.
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I checked. Nope. In a three way tie at 8-1 between M, MSU, and TOSU it looks like tOSU would win.
Based on what?
I would assume it would be CFP ranking, which would likely be Michigan
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Based on what?
I would assume it would be CFP ranking, which would likely be Michigan
Tiebreakershttps://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx (https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx)
I *THINK* it goes to #5, record of B1G-W opponents which right now would be tOSU by a large margin.
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In the SEC, you'd take the two teams with the highest "BCS" ranking and then head to head for them. I presume now it's CFP ranking.
So, if UM beats OSU end of the year and OSu beats MSU and all three are 8-1, it could be very close. All three would be pretty highly ranked, but Ohio State would have a second loss (OOC) and might be lowest ranked. If so, it would be MSU.
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In the SEC, you'd take the two teams with the highest "BCS" ranking and then head to head for them. I presume now it's CFP ranking.
So, if UM beats OSU end of the year and OSu beats MSU and all three are 8-1, it could be very close. All three would be pretty highly ranked, but Ohio State would have a second loss (OOC) and might be lowest ranked. If so, it would be MSU.
B1G tiebreakers are different, see link above.
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On the other hand, the fact that MSU keeps winning close games and Neb keeps losing close games needs to be taken into account some how too. Actually winning the game does matter.
The comparison between those two is difficult. They played H2H and it went to OT which suggests that they are fairly even. They also both had close games with Michigan which again suggests that the Spartans and Cornhuskers are fairly even. The big exception is that Nebraska smoked Northwestern while the Spartans won a much more competitive game against the Wildcats.
It appears to me that both teams are playing up or down the the level of their opposition but for whatever reason MSU keeps coming out on top in the close games while UNL keeps losing. MSU has no losses and one-score wins over:
- OT over UNL
- by five over IU
- by four over M
Nebraska has zero one-score wins (their three wins were by 25, 45, and 49 points) and one score losses to:
- IL by 8
- OU by 7
- MSU in OT
- M by 3
- MN by 7
- PU by 5
That is just crazy.
I agree that we have to take into account the fact that MSU won all three of their close games while UNL lost all six of theirs. That said, the close wins by MSU over lesser opponents and the close losses by UNL to better opponents does make me think that MSU is somewhat worse and UNL somewhat better than their simple W/L would suggest.
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1 MSU
2 OSU
3 Wisconsin
4 PSU
5 Michigan
I'm having trouble understanding your placement of Michigan. Everybody else has them top-3 and you have them fifth. I get the argument for MSU at #1 (I don't agree but I get the argument) but if MSU is #1 and Michigan's only loss is on the road at #1 by one score then how are they all the way down at #5 behind a team (Wisconsin) that they beat by three TD's?
What I am saying is that I get the argument for MSU at #1 and I can also see an argument for M at #5 (that being that UW has improved and that PSU is fine as long as Clifford is good-to-go) but I can't figure out how to make those two arguments logically coexist.
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 I do not think it is close.
- Michigan State - 5,6,6,6,8,7,9,9,11 I've been saying for weeks that I thought MSU was overrated. I have no confidence in them due to their slew of close wins over bad teams. That said, at this point they look like they might be the B1G's second best team.
- Michigan - 2,2,3,3,3,3,5,5,5 I just don't know what to do with this team.
- Wisconsin - 4,5,5,5,7,4,3,3,2 I've been saying for weeks that Wisconsin was better than their record. They sure looked like it this week!
- Penn State - 6,3,4,4,2,2,2,2,3 If only they had played like that against IL and IA.
- Iowa - 3,4,2,2,4,5,4,4,4 Wow, what a stupendous fall from their lofty heights.
- Minnesota - 7,7,10,10,9,6,8,6,7 All alone in first place in the B1G-W!
- Purdue - 9,8,12,12,11,11,11,11,10 Plugging along and with yet another opportunity for a "hangover game" upset coming up this week.
- Maryland - 10,9,8,8,5,8,6,7,12 These last six are almost pull a name out of a hat.
- Nebraska - 11,10,7,7,12,12,14,14,9 Seems to lose a close game every week.
- Indiana - 12,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,6 Competitive with UMD.
- Rutgers - 14,9,9,9,6,9,7,8,13 Amazing that IL could beat PSU one week and lose to these guys the next.
- Illinois - 8,12,13,13,13,13,13,13,14 Back to earth!
- Northwestern - 13,14,14,14,14,14,12,12,8 Just not their year.
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Rankings preview, votes through me, 13 voters:
- 1.23 tOSU
- 1.85 MSU
- 3.08 M
- 4.46 UW
- 5.23 PSU
- 5.69 MN
- 7.00 IA
- 7.54 PU
- 9.54 UMD
- 10.00 UNL
- 11.46 IL
- 11.62 RU
- 13.08 IU
- 13.23 NU
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I feel like people are having a lot of trouble figuring Purdue out.
It's simple.
If Purdue is up against a team with an excellent or elite DL, Purdue is screwed. Our OL is passable at best, and with scheme we can do alright against average to good DL. But if you have an elite DL, you can shut down the run game and pressure the QB with 4 [and sometimes 3], and drop 7 [and sometimes 8] into coverage, and AOC can't be expected to pass into those tight windows all game long successfully. If Purdue is up against a team that can wear down our defense, we're in trouble. Our defense is good, but we don't have the depth to go 4 quarters against a ball control offense.
If we're up against a team with an average to good DL, we have a puncher's chance. If we can establish at least a LITTLE bit of a run game that requires run support from the second level, we have the skill position players and the scheme to move the ball. If we're up against an offense that can be exploited by aggression, we can stall some drives and keep time of possession on our side, which we need because our offense isn't the most efficient. If we have an offense that can be forced into errors (like Nebraska), even better because we can put on the pressure for that.
Wisconsin killed us by shutting down our run game with 3-4 DL and daring us to pass into the teeth of their 7-8 man coverages, and then on the opposite side of the ball just grinding our aggressive defense into submission. They only threw 8 passes all game IIRC, because why let our defense try to generate pressure and force you into mistakes if you don't have to? Iowa couldn't pull that off--they didn't get their usual turnover margin and couldn't just run the ball down our throats. Nebraska the same--Purdue didn't have a great run game, but Purdue had a run game, and Purdue's defense forced Nebraska into all sorts of mistakes.
Ohio State is going to destroy us. Michigan State, IMHO, will and should be heavy favorites, but there's at least more of a chance for Purdue to create chaos. Northwestern and Indiana will depend on which team makes mistakes, because they have no real talent advantage.
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1. Michigan State
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Penn State
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Rutgers
12. Illinois
13. Indiana
14. Northwestern
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- Michigan State - 5,6,6,6,8,7,9,9,11 I've been saying for weeks that I thought MSU was overrated. I have no confidence in them due to their slew of close wins over bad teams. That said, at this point they look like they might be the B1G's second best team
Slew?
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slew must be 3
huskers, Hoosiers, and Wolverines
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- MINNESOTA (7) - how many running backs does this team have
5th and 6th guys on the depth chart to start the year are a redshirt and a true freshman. Both pretty highly recruited however. Definitely shows. When Bryce Williams went down, the Gophers actually brought in Derik LeCaptain, a walk-on linebacker who played running back in high school. Shed multiple tackles on the way to a 24 yard touchdown run near the end of the game (7:52 in video below)
Really....the superstar here is the offensive line. It was supposed to be a strength with how much returning experience we have. So far so good. Worth noting that the LeCaptain run had our second team o-line in. Likely to be the starting group next year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk74z00BYtM&t=471s
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slew must be 3
huskers, Hoosiers, and Wolverines
I wouldn't consider Michigan bad by any stretch.
Given their record MSU probably should have beaten Nebraska by more, but given our track record against the Huskers, I'll take any win.
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ok, two = slew
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Slew?
From my perspective, "close" is a relative term.
Back in week one when NU was the defending B1G-W Champ and MSU was picked to finish last in the B1G-E, I considered MSU's 17 point win over NU to be quite impressive.
Today, not so much. MSU is a nationally top-5 team and NU is terrible. Additionally, not only Michigan but also UNL and MN have bigger wins over the Wildcats.
The 17 point win over WKY is similarly good but nothing to write home about for an AP top-5 team.
The 18 point win over RU falls in the same category. It is good but hardly impressive for a top-5 team. Rutgers lost to Northwestern by two TD's and got annihilated by tOSU by 39 points in a game that was only that close because tOSU essentially took the second half off. MSU led Rutgers 21-13 at halftime, a week earlier the Scarlett Knights were down 45-6 to the Buckeyes at halftime.
All these wins look good and the fact that they are ALL wins is obviously superb but as a CFP/top-5 resume this feels shaky to me. If this was Ohio State's resume Buckeye fans would be up in arms. When you are top-5 and in consideration for #1 in these rankings, that is the standard you are held to.
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From my perspective, "close" is a relative term.
Back in week one when NU was the defending B1G-W Champ and MSU was picked to finish last in the B1G-E, I considered MSU's 17 point win over NU to be quite impressive.
Today, not so much. MSU is a nationally top-5 team and NU is terrible. Additionally, not only Michigan but also UNL and MN have bigger wins over the Wildcats.
The 17 point win over WKY is similarly good but nothing to write home about for an AP top-5 team.
The 18 point win over RU falls in the same category. It is good but hardly impressive for a top-5 team. Rutgers lost to Northwestern by two TD's and got annihilated by tOSU by 39 points in a game that was only that close because tOSU essentially took the second half off. MSU led Rutgers 21-13 at halftime, a week earlier the Scarlett Knights were down 45-6 to the Buckeyes at halftime.
All these wins look good and the fact that they are ALL wins is obviously superb but as a CFP/top-5 resume this feels shaky to me. If this was Ohio State's resume Buckeye fans would be up in arms. When you are top-5 and in consideration for #1 in these rankings, that is the standard you are held to.
They were up 45-16 in the 4th quarter on WKU before pulling guys
From 12 minutes in the 3rd quarter on against Northwestern I don't believe their win percentage dropped below 80%
The win chance against Rutgers was above 95% for the last 20 game minutes
I guess you could say in the end, none were blowouts, but none were close either. And anything above a certain point is just window dressing. Yes, Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, etc... recruit at a different level. Their A game is ALWAYS going to be better, but MSU is still #10 in the nation in Game Control, and #2 in Strength of Record, which (IMO) is entirely how the CFP should be determined.
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Running teams aren't really built to run up the score.
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old men, Osborne and Switzer laugh out loud
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No one is comparing MSU to those Nebraska teams.
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Maybe not, but Minnesota is a running team and has put some lumber on the tomato cans. As noted above, the OL, after taking a while to get going, is driving the Gopher bus right now.
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If this was Ohio State's resume Buckeye fans would be up in arms.
?? MSU's resume probably better than OSU's at this point
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No one is comparing MSU to those Nebraska teams.
no one but little ol me!
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?? MSU's resume probably better than OSU's at this point
So far yes,and if i had a vote Oregon would be ahead of tOSU
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Yeah, I'd actually be fairly surprised if it isn't MSU > Oregon > OSU tonight, simply because that's easiest to defend right now, and pretty meaningless going forward.
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Composite computer rankings - 73 computers (last week in parentheses)
- Georgia (1)
- Alabama (3)
- OHIO STATE (5)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- Cincinnati (4)
- MICHIGAN STATE (11)
- Oklahoma (7)
- Notre Dame (8)
- Wake Forest (10)
- Oklahoma State (12)
- Baylor (13)
- Auburn (20)
- IOWA (6)
- Ole Miss (9)
- Oregon (19)
- WISCONSIN (21)
- Texas A&M (18)
- PENN STATE (17)
- BYU (-)
- Pittsburgh (15)
- Kentucky (14)
- UTSA (23)
- MINNESOTA (-)
- Iowa State (16)
- NC State (-)
- 30. Purdue (36)
- 58. Maryland (57)
- 59. Nebraska (52)
- 62. Rutgers (69)
- 79. Illinois (72)
- 82. Indiana (76)
- 92. Northwestern (87)
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1. MSU - Very clutch, scored TDs when they needed to. I'm very impressed.
2. Mich - Played well enough to win. Had some tough calls against them.
3. Ohio State - Nice to get the win, but maybe not as good as we thought. Problems may be fixable.
4. Penn State - With a healthy Clifford, this is a good team.
5. Wisconsin - If Mertz can play like that, the defense will carry them to the West title.
6. Minnesota - Unspectacular, but keep winning.
7. Iowa - Wisconsin makes a lot of offenses look bad. Let's see if they bounce back.
8. Purdue - Nice win. Rounding into a solid team.
9. Maryland - Back on track
10. Nebraska - Another missed opportunity.
11. Rutgers - Nice win in an evenly matched game.
12. Illinois - It's hard to rank these guys. I think the Rutgers game is who they are.
13. Northwestern - Rutgers win seems to be the outlier here.
14. Indiana - Too banged up to be much of a factor.
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?? MSU's resume probably better than OSU's at this point
First, @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's computers disagree.
More important since this is a power ranking so the underlying question is how strong are teams right now, is that Ohio State's chronology so far this year is pretty clear:
- 14 point win over MN: Technically this is the biggest win so far this year over MN but it just "feels" unimpressive.
- 7 point loss to Oregon: Obviously unimpressive.
- 21 point win over Tulsa: Unimpressive.
- 52 point win over Akron: Hard to read much into this because Akron but winning by 50+ is rarely a bad sign and this is the biggest win of the year against Akron.
- 39 point win over Rutgers: The biggest wiin of the year against RU.
- 49 point win over Maryland: The biggest win of the year against UMD.
- 47 point win over Indiana: The biggest win of the year against IU.
- 9 point win over Penn State: The biggest win of the year against PSU.
For the last five straight games the Buckeyes have beaten their opponents impressively and by more than any of their other opponents.
The Buckeyes do have 2-3 unimpressive results on their resume but they were all in September.
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Yeah, I'd actually be fairly surprised if it isn't MSU > Oregon > OSU tonight, simply because that's easiest to defend right now, and pretty meaningless going forward.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Cincinnati on outside as SEC, Big Ten split initial top four - CBSSports.com
(https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-prediction-cincinnati-on-outside-as-sec-big-ten-split-initial-top-four/)A prediction about a "poll" that really means almost nothing.
They have MSU at #2 then Bama OSU Cincy OU UM WF Oregon ND
It is really strange seeing Wake Forest anywhere near the TT. I think that will sort itself out soon, playing UNC and Clemson, their OOC slate was extra lame.
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I could start this by saying “maybe I’m old-fashioned” but it probably more makes sense to say “maybe I’m new fashioned”
I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.
Take Ohio State’s win Saturday night for example. That was a damn good football team they beat.
And for what it’s worth, in the national rankings I would absolutely have Oregon ahead of Ohio State and I would have Michigan State ahead of Ohio State as well.
How many power five teams with a winning record as Ohio State defeated? How many has Michigan defeated? And how many has Michigan State defeated?
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I figure it sorts itself out by the end of the year mostly, we get more data, I mean if Wake can go 13-0 more power to them. I seriously doubt they can. I doubt Michigan State goes 13-0, though they have a shot. I'm far from convinced UGA goes 12-0. About the time teams get built up in the media they suddently flail often it seems.
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I could start this by saying “maybe I’m old-fashioned” but it probably more makes sense to say “maybe I’m new fashioned”
I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.
Take Ohio State’s win Saturday night for example. That was a damn good football team they beat.
And for what it’s worth, in the national rankings I would absolutely have Oregon ahead of Ohio State and I would have Michigan State ahead of Ohio State as well.
How many power five teams with a winning record as Ohio State defeated? How many has Michigan defeated? And how many has Michigan State defeated?
Another reason the playoffs should be autobid based and not subjective. It was a great, fun game, and "what does the playoff committee think of it" is a crappy way to think about it or any other game.
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Another reason the playoffs should be autobid based and not subjective. It was a great, fun game, and "what does the playoff committee think of it" is a crappy way to think about it or any other game.
Amen.
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I could start this by saying “maybe I’m old-fashioned” but it probably more makes sense to say “maybe I’m new fashioned”
I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.
Take Ohio State’s win Saturday night for example. That was a damn good football team they beat.
And for what it’s worth, in the national rankings I would absolutely have Oregon ahead of Ohio State and I would have Michigan State ahead of Ohio State as well.
How many power five teams with a winning record as Ohio State defeated? How many has Michigan defeated? And how many has Michigan State defeated?
Purdue's next two opponents are MSU and tOSU. If I were a Purdue fan I'd be MUCH more optimistic about my team's chances against MSU than against tOSU. I don't honestly understand how anyone can watch these teams play and disagree with that.
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First, @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's computers disagree.
More important since this is a power ranking so the underlying question is how strong are teams right now, is that Ohio State's chronology so far this year is pretty clear:
Well, no, a lot of those use predictive metrics. I'm not going to argue that OSU isn't a better team, I have them #1. But I could also tell you every year who the "best" teams are, and it wouldn't be very fun. Just look at the 4 year recruiting rankings, those are your "best" teams.
I think Strength of Record is the best "resume" metric. It's fairly useless if you are trying to guess a point spread, but I would hate college football to devolve into that.
As for how you rank teams, I've never thought there is any RIGHT answer to that
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Purdue's next two opponents are MSU and tOSU. If I were a Purdue fan I'd be MUCH more optimistic about my team's chances against MSU than against tOSU. I don't honestly understand how anyone can watch these teams play and disagree with that.
Yep, I'm exactly there.
I will point out that a small portion of it is that MSU is at home and OSU is on the road. Purdue doesn't beat OSU in the 'Shoe.
But the biggest portion of it is that I think OSU has better talent top to bottom than MSU. I simply think OSU is better in all facets of the game than MSU.
I'm hoping the committee puts MSU in the #2 spot. It's good luck (for Purdue).
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I figure it sorts itself out by the end of the year mostly, we get more data, I mean if Wake can go 13-0 more power to them. I seriously doubt they can. I doubt Michigan State goes 13-0, though they have a shot. I'm far from convinced UGA goes 12-0. About the time teams get built up in the media they suddently flail often it seems.
yup, rankings this week don't mean a thing
lots of football to be played
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As you guys know, I started posting this years ago. I refer to it as the SoS/results table:
(https://i.imgur.com/CdBPrAR.png)
Typically every team has some outlier results but in general the best teams do better and the worst teams do worse against each opponent.
So far this year Ohio State is best out of five against each of their five B1G opponents: #5 PSU, #6 MN, #9 UMD, #11/12 RU, and #13 IU. That may be meaningless to everyone else but I've been tracking this for a while and it is exceedingly rare for a team to be consistently the best against every team they've faced this late in the season.
Then, comparing to the other two teams with first place votes, it isn't close:
Michigan State is:
- Best of five against Michigan: Better than UNL, RU, UW, and NU.
- Second of five against Rutgers: Behind tOSU, better than NU, M, and IL.
- Fourth of five against Indiana: Behind tOSU, IA, and PSU; better than UMD.
- Fourth of five against Northwestern: Behind UNL, MN, and M; better than RU.
- Fifth of six against Nebraska: Behind IL, MN, PU, and M; better than NU.
Michigan is:
- Best of five against Wisconsin: Better than PSU, PU, IA, and IL.
- Second of five against Michigan State: Behind UNL, better than IU, NU, and RU.
- Third of five against Northwestern: Behind UNL and MN; better than MSU and RU.
- Fourth of six against Nebraska: Behind IL, MN, and PU; better than MSU and NU.
- Fourth of five against Rutgers: Behind tOSU, MSU, and NU; better than IL.
Neither of those are frankly very good. In both cases the "best of's" and "second of's" look like the outliers because the bulk of the results are lower.
Obviously this is all in motion. Ohio State could lose to Nebraska this weekend while all five of their previous opponents get beat worse than tOSU already beat them. As a practical matter Ohio State's numbers here are REALLY good and likely to remain that way at least for the games already played.
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Results posted, votes through @Abba (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=65) , 15 voters.
Things that at least half of us agree on:
- 12/15 that M is #3
- 11/15 that tOSU is #1
- 11/15 that MSU is #2
- 10/15 that PU is #8
- 8/15 that UW is #4
- 8/15 that UMD is #10
- 8/15 that RU is #11
- 8/15 that NU is #14
Each week I post what I call the "COTY" chart. It is simply current ranking less preseason ranking and I call it the "COTY" chart because COTY is generally awarded to the team that most exceeded expectations. I don't keep track of past scores but I'm pretty sure that our top and bottom are both records at this point.
At the top is MSU/Tucker:
This is unbelievable. MSU's preseason average ranking was 12.38. They were ranked second worst in the league and worst in the B1G-E. Their current average ranking is 1.73 which exceeds their preseason average by an astounding 10.65. That is just unheard of.
At the bottom is IU/Allen:
Indiana's preseason average ranking was 4.15. They were ranked fourth in the league overall and third in the B1G-E behind only tOSU and PSU. They are now second-worst in the league and last in the B1G-E at 13.13, which is 8.98 below their preseason ranking.
I don't think Allen should be fired or anything, I think this is more a product of being not quite as good as their record last year and probably not quite as bad as their record this year.
The other thing I want to comment on is the schedule/performance table:
Ohio State has the biggest win against each of their five B1G opponents. That may not seem like a big deal but I've been tracking this for a number of years and trust me, it is highly unusual to be THAT good this late in the season.
Teams that are have the biggest win (or smallest loss in the case of an undefeated opponent) against at least one B1G opponent:
- 5, tOSU has the biggest wins against PSU, MN, UMD, RU, and IU
- 3, UW has the biggest wins against IA, PU, and IL
- 2, UNL has the biggest win against NU and the closest loss to MSU
- 1, PSU has the closest loss to tOSU
- 1, MSU has the biggest win against M
- 1, M has the biggest win against UW
- 1, IL has the biggest win against UNL
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I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.
This argument isn't merely wrong it is flat absurd.
The quality differential in the NFL top-to-bottom is MUCH smaller than the quality gap just in the B1G. The largest MOV in an NFL game so far this year is 41 points (https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/which-team-has-the-largest-margin-of-victory-in-a-game-this-season). That is out of approximately 112 NFL games played so far this year. By contrast, Ohio State has bigger MOV's in two of their five B1G games (49 over UMD and 47 over IU) and a third that is close and would be the third biggest NFL MOV (39 over RU).
A win is just a win in the NFL because even the worst teams in the NFL aren't THAT much worse than the best. In CFB that isn't even true within the B1G and becomes even more ludicrous when trying to compare games against teams MUCH worse than any that the B1G has to offer.
Back when MCWterps was here he used to treat "a win as a win" in his power rankings and that always caused his to be ridiculously off. I once asked him, hypothetically, if tOSU going to Tuscaloosa and losing in OT would be worse than UMD hosting an FCS scrub and winning in OT and he ducked the question.
Who you play and how you perform matters if you want to get a meaningful comparison of the relative strength of teams in CFB. Cincy's resume will be only somewhat impressive even if they get to 13-0 because they play in a crap league.
Even within the B1G, IU is 0-5 in part because they have played three of the five best teams (tOSU, MSU, and PSU) while MSU is 5-0 in part because they have played four of the five worst teams in the league (NU, IU, RU, UNL).
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This argument isn't merely wrong it is flat absurd.
The quality differential in the NFL top-to-bottom is MUCH smaller than the quality gap just in the B1G. The largest MOV in an NFL game so far this year is 41 points (https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/which-team-has-the-largest-margin-of-victory-in-a-game-this-season). That is out of approximately 112 NFL games played so far this year. By contrast, Ohio State has bigger MOV's in two of their five B1G games (49 over UMD and 47 over IU) and a third that is close and would be the third biggest NFL MOV (39 over RU).
A win is just a win in the NFL because even the worst teams in the NFL aren't THAT much worse than the best. In CFB that isn't even true within the B1G and becomes even more ludicrous when trying to compare games against teams MUCH worse than any that the B1G has to offer.
Back when MCWterps was here he used to treat "a win as a win" in his power rankings and that always caused his to be ridiculously off. I once asked him, hypothetically, if tOSU going to Tuscaloosa and losing in OT would be worse than UMD hosting an FCS scrub and winning in OT and he ducked the question.
Who you play and how you perform matters if you want to get a meaningful comparison of the relative strength of teams in CFB. Cincy's resume will be only somewhat impressive even if they get to 13-0 because they play in a crap league.
Even within the B1G, IU is 0-5 in part because they have played three of the five best teams (tOSU, MSU, and PSU) while MSU is 5-0 in part because they have played four of the five worst teams in the league (NU, IU, RU, UNL).
You are talking analytics ( which I LOVE yours by the way). I’m sure not disagreeing with the analytics.
i’ll say it a different way: If Ohio State beat Nebraska three to nothing, and beat Michigan State 3 to 2, and beats Purdue 2 to nothing, and beat Michigan 6 to 3-as a fan of Ohio State I will be incredibly joyful.
You may have noticed- while I have made comments in the section, I have actually not voted in the rankings.
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You may have noticed- while I have made comments in the section, I have actually not voted in the rankings.
slacker