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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 9

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ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2021, 03:01:40 PM »
Yeah, I'd actually be fairly surprised if it isn't MSU > Oregon > OSU tonight, simply because that's easiest to defend right now, and pretty meaningless going forward.
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ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2021, 03:15:45 PM »
Composite computer rankings - 73 computers (last week in parentheses)
  • Georgia (1)
  • Alabama (3)
  • OHIO STATE (5)
  • MICHIGAN (2)
  • Cincinnati (4)
  • MICHIGAN STATE (11)
  • Oklahoma (7)
  • Notre Dame (8)
  • Wake Forest (10)
  • Oklahoma State (12)
  • Baylor (13)
  • Auburn (20)
  • IOWA (6)
  • Ole Miss (9)
  • Oregon (19)
  • WISCONSIN (21)
  • Texas A&M (18)
  • PENN STATE (17)
  • BYU (-)
  • Pittsburgh (15)
  • Kentucky (14)
  • UTSA (23)
  • MINNESOTA (-)
  • Iowa State (16)
  • NC State (-)


  • 30. Purdue (36)
  • 58. Maryland (57)
  • 59. Nebraska (52)
  • 62. Rutgers (69)
  • 79. Illinois (72)
  • 82. Indiana (76)
  • 92. Northwestern (87)
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Abba

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2021, 03:16:20 PM »
1. MSU - Very clutch, scored TDs when they needed to.  I'm very impressed.
2. Mich - Played well enough to win.  Had some tough calls against them.
3. Ohio State - Nice to get the win, but maybe not as good as we thought.  Problems may be fixable.
4. Penn State - With a healthy Clifford, this is a good team.
5. Wisconsin - If Mertz can play like that, the defense will carry them to the West title.
6. Minnesota - Unspectacular, but keep winning.  
7. Iowa - Wisconsin makes a lot of offenses look bad.  Let's see if they bounce back.
8. Purdue - Nice win.  Rounding into a solid team.
9. Maryland - Back on track
10. Nebraska - Another missed opportunity.
11. Rutgers - Nice win in an evenly matched game.
12. Illinois - It's hard to rank these guys.  I think the Rutgers game is who they are.
13. Northwestern - Rutgers win seems to be the outlier here.
14. Indiana - Too banged up to be much of a factor.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2021, 03:56:54 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 02, 2021, 02:23:03 PM
?? MSU's resume probably better than OSU's at this point
First, @ELA 's computers disagree.

More important since this is a power ranking so the underlying question is how strong are teams right now, is that Ohio State's chronology so far this year is pretty clear:
  • 14 point win over MN: Technically this is the biggest win so far this year over MN but it just "feels" unimpressive.
  • 7 point loss to Oregon: Obviously unimpressive.
  • 21 point win over Tulsa: Unimpressive.
  • 52 point win over Akron: Hard to read much into this because Akron but winning by 50+ is rarely a bad sign and this is the biggest win of the year against Akron.
  • 39 point win over Rutgers: The biggest wiin of the year against RU.
  • 49 point win over Maryland: The biggest win of the year against UMD.
  • 47 point win over Indiana: The biggest win of the year against IU.
  • 9 point win over Penn State: The biggest win of the year against PSU.


For the last five straight games the Buckeyes have beaten their opponents impressively and by more than any of their other opponents. 

The Buckeyes do have 2-3 unimpressive results on their resume but they were all in September.
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #60 on: November 02, 2021, 04:08:45 PM »
Quote from: ELA on November 02, 2021, 03:01:40 PM
Yeah, I'd actually be fairly surprised if it isn't MSU > Oregon > OSU tonight, simply because that's easiest to defend right now, and pretty meaningless going forward.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Cincinnati on outside as SEC, Big Ten split initial top four - CBSSports.com

A prediction about a "poll" that really means almost nothing.

They have MSU at #2 then Bama OSU Cincy OU UM WF  Oregon ND

It is really strange seeing Wake Forest anywhere near the TT.  I think that will sort itself out soon, playing UNC and Clemson, their OOC slate was extra lame.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2021, 04:13:20 PM »
I could start this by saying “maybe I’m old-fashioned” but it probably more makes sense to say “maybe I’m new fashioned”

I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.

Take Ohio State’s win Saturday night for example. That was a damn good football team they beat.

And for what it’s worth, in the national rankings I would absolutely have Oregon ahead of Ohio State and I would have Michigan State ahead of Ohio State as well.

How many power five teams with a winning record as Ohio State defeated? How many has Michigan defeated? And how many has Michigan State defeated?
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2021, 04:16:59 PM »
I figure it sorts itself out by the end of the year mostly, we get more data, I mean if Wake can go 13-0 more power to them.  I seriously doubt they can.  I doubt Michigan State goes 13-0, though they have a shot.  I'm far from convinced UGA goes 12-0.  About the time teams get built up in the media they suddently flail often it seems.

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MaximumSam

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2021, 04:17:34 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 04:13:20 PM
I could start this by saying “maybe I’m old-fashioned” but it probably more makes sense to say “maybe I’m new fashioned”

I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.

Take Ohio State’s win Saturday night for example. That was a damn good football team they beat.

And for what it’s worth, in the national rankings I would absolutely have Oregon ahead of Ohio State and I would have Michigan State ahead of Ohio State as well.

How many power five teams with a winning record as Ohio State defeated? How many has Michigan defeated? And how many has Michigan State defeated?
Another reason the playoffs should be autobid based and not subjective. It was a great, fun game, and "what does the playoff committee think of it" is a crappy way to think about it or any other game.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2021, 04:19:08 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 02, 2021, 04:17:34 PM
Another reason the playoffs should be autobid based and not subjective. It was a great, fun game, and "what does the playoff committee think of it" is a crappy way to think about it or any other game.
Amen.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #65 on: November 02, 2021, 04:22:54 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 04:13:20 PM
I could start this by saying “maybe I’m old-fashioned” but it probably more makes sense to say “maybe I’m new fashioned”

I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.

Take Ohio State’s win Saturday night for example. That was a damn good football team they beat.

And for what it’s worth, in the national rankings I would absolutely have Oregon ahead of Ohio State and I would have Michigan State ahead of Ohio State as well.

How many power five teams with a winning record as Ohio State defeated? How many has Michigan defeated? And how many has Michigan State defeated?
Purdue's next two opponents are MSU and tOSU. If I were a Purdue fan I'd be MUCH more optimistic about my team's chances against MSU than against tOSU. I don't honestly understand how anyone can watch these teams play and disagree with that.
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ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #66 on: November 02, 2021, 04:27:10 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 02, 2021, 03:56:54 PM
First, @ELA 's computers disagree.

More important since this is a power ranking so the underlying question is how strong are teams right now, is that Ohio State's chronology so far this year is pretty clear:
Well, no, a lot of those use predictive metrics.  I'm not going to argue that OSU isn't a better team, I have them #1.  But I could also tell you every year who the "best" teams are, and it wouldn't be very fun.  Just look at the 4 year recruiting rankings, those are your "best" teams.

I think Strength of Record is the best "resume" metric.  It's fairly useless if you are trying to guess a point spread, but I would hate college football to devolve into that.

As for how you rank teams, I've never thought there is any RIGHT answer to that
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #67 on: November 02, 2021, 04:52:02 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 02, 2021, 04:22:54 PM
Purdue's next two opponents are MSU and tOSU. If I were a Purdue fan I'd be MUCH more optimistic about my team's chances against MSU than against tOSU. I don't honestly understand how anyone can watch these teams play and disagree with that.
Yep, I'm exactly there. 

I will point out that a small portion of it is that MSU is at home and OSU is on the road. Purdue doesn't beat OSU in the 'Shoe. 

But the biggest portion of it is that I think OSU has better talent top to bottom than MSU. I simply think OSU is better in all facets of the game than MSU. 

I'm hoping the committee puts MSU in the #2 spot. It's good luck (for Purdue). 
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2021, 07:46:22 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 04:16:59 PM
I figure it sorts itself out by the end of the year mostly, we get more data, I mean if Wake can go 13-0 more power to them.  I seriously doubt they can.  I doubt Michigan State goes 13-0, though they have a shot.  I'm far from convinced UGA goes 12-0.  About the time teams get built up in the media they suddently flail often it seems.


yup, rankings this week don't mean a thing
lots of football to be played
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2021, 09:32:24 PM »
As you guys know, I started posting this years ago.  I refer to it as the SoS/results table:

Typically every team has some outlier results but in general the best teams do better and the worst teams do worse against each opponent. 

So far this year Ohio State is best out of five against each of their five B1G opponents:  #5 PSU, #6 MN, #9 UMD, #11/12 RU, and #13 IU.  That may be meaningless to everyone else but I've been tracking this for a while and it is exceedingly rare for a team to be consistently the best against every team they've faced this late in the season. 

Then, comparing to the other two teams with first place votes, it isn't close:
Michigan State is:

  • Best of five against Michigan:  Better than UNL, RU, UW, and NU. 
  • Second of five against Rutgers:  Behind tOSU, better than NU, M, and IL. 
  • Fourth of five against Indiana:  Behind tOSU, IA, and PSU; better than UMD. 
  • Fourth of five against Northwestern:  Behind UNL, MN, and M; better than RU. 
  • Fifth of six against Nebraska:  Behind IL, MN, PU, and M; better than NU. 
Michigan is:
  • Best of five against Wisconsin:  Better than PSU, PU, IA, and IL. 
  • Second of five against Michigan State:  Behind UNL, better than IU, NU, and RU. 
  • Third of five against Northwestern:  Behind UNL and MN; better than MSU and RU. 
  • Fourth of six against Nebraska:  Behind IL, MN, and PU; better than MSU and NU. 
  • Fourth of five against Rutgers:  Behind tOSU, MSU, and NU; better than IL. 

Neither of those are frankly very good.  In both cases the "best of's" and "second of's" look like the outliers because the bulk of the results are lower. 

Obviously this is all in motion.  Ohio State could lose to Nebraska this weekend while all five of their previous opponents get beat worse than tOSU already beat them.  As a practical matter Ohio State's numbers here are REALLY good and likely to remain that way at least for the games already played. 
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