You're probably right, and I hope you're right.
But the situation is different this year. Before, OU has lost an early game and backed into the top 4 as other teams lost. This year, OU is undefeated, and a loss would eliminate them.
Imagine that Bama beats Georgia in the SEC CCG. There are two of the slots taken right there. Then there are the three other 1-loss teams--Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan--ahead of OU. Of course, Michigan and Ohio State still have to play each other, and Ohio State has to play undefeated #3 Michigan State.
So, you are probably right, but it's not a lock.
Not dead solid perfect.