What do you know about the "18-months notification for early departure" requirement, and about the Big 12 saying that said notification has not been given?
Is that all a non-factor?
If it's a significant factor, it seems like 2023 would be the earliest we would leave.
It's all just a negotiation, same as everything else. Not sure why anyone thinks these contracts are any different than the previous ones.
Play it out in your mind, what happens if Texas and OU just leave in Fall 2022? ESPN/Fox and the other partners pay the B12 their annual allotment. The B12 withholds payments to Texas and OU for 2021/2022.
Texas and OU move to the SEC. Their games are now broadcast via the SEC's contracts through ESPN and CBS (for one more year I believe) and then through ESPN alone beyond that. ESPN and/or CBS sends in their crew to broadcast the game on ESPN or CBS, and at the end of the year, ESPN and CBS pay the SEC their contractually obligated money, and the SEC pays Texas and OU their portions of the annual allotment.
There are no Fox broadcast crews showing up to the gates in Austin or Norman or Dallas, there's no police that are going to force Texas or OU to allow a B12-contracted broadcasting crew to broadcast their games and pocket the money.
There's also no way for the B12 to block CBS/ESPN from paying the SEC for games that involved Texas or OU, and there's no way for the B12 to block the SEC from paying Texas and OU for games played under the SEC contracts.
The B12 could try to sue Texas and OU, but realistically that's not how any of this works. In reality everyone lets all parties know where they stand, what their plans are, and the exit negotiations are performed to settle the money.
Fox wants their content
Fox doesn't like the SEC
Fox's contract is with the B12, not with Texas or OU. Texas and OU are not legally bound to Fox through anything other than their participation in the B12. And that participation is the contract that will be negotiated and liquidated.