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Topic: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here

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Mr Tulip

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #140 on: August 25, 2022, 10:21:35 AM »
Ignoring the Texas question for now (they have to have one of the broadest "anything is possible" deltas of all time), these rankings have to assume grossly unproven, completely out of mode results for most of these programs.

Last season, the Big 12 wasn't good. There were a couple of teams at the top that were nationally competitive coming off COVID messed up seasons, but nothing that ever seriously threatened the contenders. Those teams lost multiple program defining pieces that enabled the style of play that won close games. These aren't programs that typically feature strong "next man up" pipelines.

ISU won't easily replace their TE or RB. oSu won't replace their DEs. Baylor won't replace their, well, most of their defense and their sledgehammer RB. Each of these teams will have to rethink their style of play. There's no cause to simply assume it will all work out.

We all like to believe in KSU, but that's largely unearned credibility left over from the previous staff. Chris Kleimann and company are skilled, but there's no call to think that KSU is anything but a tough out.

OU is replacing their entire team and staff. Why anyone thinks this will just work is beyond me. I don't expect them to stink, but this is never a good thing for any program anywhere.

You may just as well predict Kansas to build off the Texas win, believe in themselves, and battle WVU and the old Georgia QB for Big 12 supremacy.

utee94

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #141 on: August 25, 2022, 10:31:24 AM »
Ignoring the Texas question for now (they have to have one of the broadest "anything is possible" deltas of all time), these rankings have to assume grossly unproven, completely out of mode results for most of these programs.

Last season, the Big 12 wasn't good. There were a couple of teams at the top that were nationally competitive coming off COVID messed up seasons, but nothing that ever seriously threatened the contenders. Those teams lost multiple program defining pieces that enabled the style of play that won close games. These aren't programs that typically feature strong "next man up" pipelines.

ISU won't easily replace their TE or RB. oSu won't replace their DEs. Baylor won't replace their, well, most of their defense and their sledgehammer RB. Each of these teams will have to rethink their style of play. There's no cause to simply assume it will all work out.

We all like to believe in KSU, but that's largely unearned credibility left over from the previous staff. Chris Kleimann and company are skilled, but there's no call to think that KSU is anything but a tough out.

OU is replacing their entire team and staff. Why anyone thinks this will just work is beyond me. I don't expect them to stink, but this is never a good thing for any program anywhere.

You may just as well predict Kansas to build off the Texas win, believe in themselves, and battle WVU and the old Georgia QB for Big 12 supremacy.

Yeah.

Or maybe Texas gels, takes advantage of all of these other disadvantaged programs, and wins the B12!

CWSooner

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #142 on: August 25, 2022, 10:51:29 AM »
Stewart Mandel used to be solid, but has gone off the deep end. Maybe living in SoCal has made him crazy.

OU would have to lose every losable game to go 5-4/7-5. Possible, but unlikely. I'll be very surprised if OU looks like a team that just lost all its coaches and all its players. 3 coaches (4 until the forced resignation of Cale Gundy) are holdovers. Over 50% of the players are holdovers.

Sark might (or might not) be a bad head coach, but I can't see Texas having a worse season than last year.

What makes Kansas State look like a 7-2/10-2 team? I would guess that they'll be closer to 5-4/7-5, with an OOC loss to Missouri.

I think Mandel is pretty close with his oSu and Baylor predictions.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #143 on: August 25, 2022, 10:56:30 AM »
These sports prognosticators have it tough, if they "predict" the usual stuff, they get critized for being predictable.  If they predict off the wall stuff, well, ...

I think folks here know it's for fun and means nearly nothing, unless one of them us unusually prescient, which I've never seen.  Nebraska could reverse their TO margins of late and win the close ones and be 9-3 reasonably well, and UCLA has a shot at 10-2.

FearlessF

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #144 on: August 25, 2022, 11:19:58 AM »
they could all be saved for the end of the season and the guy closest to correct wins something -  a trophy

the guy furthest from correct is banned from a prediction next season
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Mr Tulip

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #145 on: August 25, 2022, 11:20:20 AM »
Yeah.

Or maybe Texas gels, takes advantage of all of these other disadvantaged programs, and wins the B12!
There's just too much uncertain (largely the OL) for me to delve into Texas. If I had to pick, I'd like Kelvin Banks to be our answer at LT (yeah, as a true freshman - right!) and JT Sanders to play TE like DThomas and JMike. If that happens, the offense will score. Otherwise, no QB will work.

I still need an Edge Rusher to emerge. I can't even verbalize that one right now.

Gigem

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #146 on: August 25, 2022, 11:28:28 AM »
Personally I see Baylor and oSu being the top teams, same as last year.  Too much uncertainty with OU/Texas.  It's kinda like the weather....when you just get into the same old patterns day after day and week after week.  Something has to bust us out of those patterns, much like CFB.  And right now I think BU/OSU have got more in the tank than OU/Tex.  I do think that OU lost their edge after Riley decided to bolt, whether the team knew it or not.  But something was definitely amiss.  

FearlessF

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #147 on: August 25, 2022, 12:01:40 PM »
May be an image of text that says 'FANS Kansas Jayhawk Fans @FansOf... Big 12 Leaderboard: All-Time Winning Percentage in Football ALL-TIME WINNING PERCENTAGE IN FOOTBALL BIG SCHOOLS (VIA WIKIPEDIA) 1. OKLAHOMA 2. TEXAS 3. WEST VIRGINIA 4. TEXAS TECH 5. TCU 6. OKLAHOMA STATE 7. BAYLOR 8. KANSAS 9. IOWA STATE 10. KANSAS STAT .728 .703 596 .552 TCU 541 OSu 525 早 .513 .471 STATE 456 .454 21 68 543'

hah, in a couple of years, WVU will be the cream of the crop
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utee94

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #148 on: August 25, 2022, 12:25:02 PM »
Horns have got a couple hundred wins on 'em, so it'll take more than a couple years...

Mr Tulip

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #149 on: August 25, 2022, 12:46:24 PM »
I was amazed at what Baylor did last year. Usually, a "wide zone" offense in college leads to starry eyed RBs trotting out of bounds behind their OL - ignoring the 4 yard gains while trying to find the touchdown gap. Baylor's sledgehammer RB, Abram Smith, had no such problems as he loved smashing those tough yards out. Baylor would waste time, bash for first downs, waste more time, and get a few point here and there. That was perfect because they had 4 or 5 really good defenders that could keep the games close. By shortening the game and limiting possessions, they gave themselves a shot.

Baylor lost all those defenders. There's no reason to believe new guys are just going to suddenly play to that level. Offensively, they lost that RB. Something new is going to have to show up. Their QB has like 3 games of actual experience, and the receivers have like zero actual catches.

Jeff Grimes (Baylor's OC) did a wonderful job of matching players to his scheme last season. It was just coincidentally exactly what he ran at BYU. The question, then, is Grimes a brilliant OC that can tailor his offense, or did he just happen to get the right players for what he knows?

utee94

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #150 on: August 25, 2022, 12:47:56 PM »
I wouldn't mind seeing Aranda at Texas.

Mr Tulip

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #151 on: August 25, 2022, 12:52:58 PM »
I wouldn't mind seeing Aranda at Texas.

Give it a minute. Texas has fantastic coaches. The kids know it. The high schoolers know it. I hate the fact that Texas is so young right now, but this is absolutely a promising trajectory.

Dave Aranda might be a wonderful coach as well. He benefited from a ton of external factors last season, however. Tom Herman exceeded the mean during his 2nd season as well.

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #152 on: August 25, 2022, 02:11:35 PM »
Horns have got a couple hundred wins on 'em, so it'll take more than a couple years...
in a couple years the Horns won't be in the 12
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FearlessF

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Re: 2022 College Football Season - It's Almost Here
« Reply #153 on: August 25, 2022, 04:06:16 PM »
May be a Twitter screenshot of 1 person and text that says 'Tony Gerdeman @TonyGerdeman Amazingly, Nick Saban has never lost a non-conference road game in his 15 years at Alabama. If Bama wins at Texas this season, he will move to an INCREDIBLE 3-O! 10:44 •8/23/22 Twitter Web App'
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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