~2022 MLB Thread~

[Cincydawg]

Forget Starting Pitchers. It’s Bullpen Season. | FiveThirtyEight

Padres recipe for deep postseason runs starts with bullpen (eastvillagetimes.com)

Which Playoff Team Has the Best Bullpen? - Stadium (watchstadium.com)

[OrangeAfroMan]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-teams-best-lineups-2022


https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/ranking-the-best-starting-rotations-in-the-mlb-postseason/


https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/10/9/23394748/yankees-defense-playoffs-elite-trevino-rizzo-donaldson-bader-kiner-falefa-torres-le-mahieu-judge



Citing articles seeking out clicks and eyeballs doesn't really do anything.  LOOK!  Articles for the best lineups, rotations, and how great the Yankees' defense is!  Fun!!!

[longhorn320]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-teams-best-lineups-2022


https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/ranking-the-best-starting-rotations-in-the-mlb-postseason/


https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/10/9/23394748/yankees-defense-playoffs-elite-trevino-rizzo-donaldson-bader-kiner-falefa-torres-le-mahieu-judge



Citing articles seeking out clicks and eyeballs doesn't really do anything.  LOOK!  Articles for the best lineups, rotations, and how great the Yankees' defense is!  Fun!!!

Here are the stats from the Astros 162 game season

out of 162 games there were 37 games where neither team scored from the 7th inning on

there were 14 games where both teams scored the same number of runs from the 7th inning on

this leaves 111 games where one team scored more runs from the 7th inning on then the other team

of the 111 games the team scoring the most runs from the 7th inning on won 82 times or had win rate of 74%

To win in the playoffs you need a good bull pen to keep the other team from out scoring you from the 7th inning on

[OrangeAfroMan]

Here are the stats from the Astros 162 game season

out of 162 games there were 37 games where neither team scored from the 7th inning on

there were 14 games where both teams scored the same number of runs from the 7th inning on

this leaves 111 games where one team scored more runs from the 7th inning on then the other team

of the 111 games the team scoring the most runs from the 7th inning on won 82 times or had win rate of 74%

To win in the playoffs you need a good bull pen to keep the other team from out scoring you from the 7th inning on

Fantastic effort.  Thank you.
But that 74% number doesn't mean anything in isolation.  It may be high.  It could be low.  You'd have to compare it to other 3-innning clusters.  

[longhorn320]

Fantastic effort.  Thank you.
But that 74% number doesn't mean anything in isolation.  It may be high.  It could be low.  You'd have to compare it to other 3-innning clusters. 

Im only showing the 7th inning on because thats when a teams bull pen comes into play

It matters not what happens when a teams starter is playing 

how many times have you seen a starter pitch lights out ball only to see that team lose because their bull pen was crap

my whole message is for a team to win in the playoffs their bull pen must be very good

[OrangeAfroMan]

how many times have you seen a starter pitch lights out ball only to see that team lose because their bull pen was crap

About as often as the starter gives up a lot of runs, but then the bullpen shuts down the team to finish out the game.  

Your anecdotal sharing isn't going to convince anyone of anything.

[longhorn320]

Here are the 2022 MLB bullpens ranked by era

notice anything


https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/statistics/team-bullpenera/2022

[OrangeAfroMan]

Playoff Bullpen ERA Rank by WS Champion:
2021:  3rd
2020:  9th
2019:  5th
2018:  2nd
2017:  7th
2016:  7th
2015:  4th
2014:  no data available
.
Ehhh, from this data, all I see is that to win the WS, your bullpen merely shouldn't suck.  Those two 7th-best bullpens in '16 and '17 were out of 10 playoff teams. 
This data tells me that bullpen ERA isn't especially vital to winning the WS.  Now, it's not super safe to proclaim that, as I have said before, this type of data isn't really useful unless we compare it to other aspects vs team success. 
So let's look at overall team pitching ERA:
2021:  4th
2020:  4th
2019:  5th
2018:  4th
2017:  5th
2016:  5th
2015:  4th
2014:  2nd
See, here we have consistency.  That makes me think this data point is more valid, regardless of whether the average ranking is either or lower than the bullpen ERA number.  The bullpen ERA rankings are all over the place.  The overall playoff pitching ERA, while worse than I would have guessed, is at least consistent.
.

2021:  3rd
2020:  2nd
2019:  5th
2018:  2nd
2017:  6th
2016:  2nd
2015:  1st
2014:  6th
.
Kind of all over the place, like bullpen ERA, huh?  Well now let's see the average for each (2021-2015):
5.29  Bullpen ERA
4.43  Overall pitching
3.00  Hitting (OPS)
.
I would not take away from this that bullpen ERA is the least important aspect, just based on this.  But look at it.  It's definitely not the most important.  It's not even close.  The data does not support it.  It suggests the opposite, but this is fast-and-dirty, so I don't think any meaningful proclamations can be made from it. 
.
If I did want to make any tentative proclamations, it'd be these:
-fewer runs are scored in playoff games than regular season games
-bullpen ERA is important
-overall pitching is more important
-in a run-scarce environment, each run scored and run prevented is more important than in a higher run environment
-you have to score at least 1 run in order to win a game (this may be a biggie)

[FearlessF]

it's really too bad that @utee94  doesn't follow baseball enough to peruse this thread.

One of my finest examples of pot stirring!

[utee94]

it's really too bad that @utee94  doesn't follow baseball enough to peruse this thread.

One of my finest examples of pot stirring!

I get to enjoy your work in so many other places, reading it here might be a little TOO much.

Anyway, does baseball season ever end?  I'm tired of weird interruptions in football broadcasting intended to show me irrelevant baseball things.

[longhorn320]

yes baseball season ends soon and then you have Lebron James to entertain you

[longhorn320]

Playoff Bullpen ERA Rank by WS Champion:
2021:  3rd
2020:  9th
2019:  5th
2018:  2nd
2017:  7th
2016:  7th
2015:  4th
2014:  no data available
.hhh, from this data, all I see is that to win the WS, your bullpen merely shouldn't suck.  Those two 7th-best bullpens in '16 and '17 were out of 10 playoff teams. 
This data tells me that bullpen ERA isn't especially vital to winning the WS.  Now, it's not super safe to proclaim that, as I have said before, this type of data 

you act like I said you only do well in the playoffs with the best bullpen and thats not my point at all

you dont have to have the best but you do need a good one

every team in the playoffs probably has a better bullpen then the 20 teams that didnt make it

obviously a good bull pen isnt the only asset needed

you also need a good starting rotation and offensive hitting punch as well

my main point is a good bullpen is often overlooked when measuring the ability of a team to win in the playoffs

[utee94]

yes baseball season ends soon and then you have Lebron James to entertain you

[Cincydawg]

A thing I notice in such "discussions" is how a pretty simple point will get exaggerated to some extreme to counter it, when it isn't the point at all.

It's obvious that a team great in every other respect but an average bullpen can win.  And I think more important than season ERA is ERA in the last month or so.  Teams do add pitching, often BP pitching, at the trade deadline, and that can make a bullpen.

A team can have a very average record before June 1 and win the WS by "getting hot", in part by adding different players later.  And those teams can do well in the playoffs.

At least the Mets are out.