~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[MichiFan87]

Props to Nebraska for their win tonight.

Michigan looked bad, though give Nebraska some credit for that. They couldn't get enough open 3s or drive to the rim well enough, while committing an absurd number of turnovers. Defensively, they focused too much on defending the perimeter for some reason and got beat at the rim repeatedly, instead.

Fortunately, the toughest part of the schedule is over except for going to Purdue next week after playing Rutgers at home on Sunday. This team won't win the league or get a high enough seed to be sent to the Detroit regional, but if they draw the right matchups, they can make a run in the tournament.

[medinabuckeye1]

Technically there were no surprises last night but Michigan's loss at Nebraska means that they are now 0-2 in games that a tier-2 team should win but a tier-3 team should lose so I think the idea of promoting Michigan to tier-2 needs to be tabled.  

FWIW:
The games that a tier-2 team should win but a tier-3 team should lose are:

• Home games against tier-1 teams, and
• Road games against tier-4 teams

There are six potential games of this type:

• vs MSU
• vs PU
• @ UNL
• @ UW
• @ IU
• @ NU

Of the six, Michigan:

• Does not play two (vs MSU, @IU)
• Lost two (vs PU, @ UNL)
• Has two left (@ UW 2/11, @ NU 2/6)

[ELA]

Lincoln was electric last night.  Granted a Thursday night vs. Saturday at noon is different, but hopefully at least some members of the Izzone saw that.  Used to be one of the best student sections in the nation, and now, I honestly couldn't tell a difference between the Maryland game (when the students were still gone) and the Michigan game (when they were back) other than the white shirts.

[JerseyTerrapin]

I said a while back, Maryland won't be in it.

If they make it, I'd be greatly surprised.

No depth.

I'm doubtful too, but the recent play of Josh Tomaic is encouraging, and helps fill the hole left by the devastating front-court injuries.  It seems like he played more minutes last night alone (25) than he did in all of November and December.  And he was solid with 7 points and 5 rebounds.  He's not the player that Jackson or Bender are yet, but as time goes on I think they might make it work.
Losing in Ann Arbor was painful -- until I remember that they won a game they shouldn't have won in Illinois in almost exactly the same way earlier. 
They'll be at home a lot in the next few weeks, that might help too.

[medinabuckeye1]

Indiana and Michigan State are currently tied for 3rd/4th and they play tonight in E. Lansing.  

When that game ends the top of the standings will be:

• 7-0 Ohio State
• 7-0 Purdue
• 5-2 MSU/IU winner
• 5-3 Nebraska
• 5-3 Michigan
• 4-3 MSU/IU loser
• 4-4 Maryland
• The other seven teams are below .500

[Brutus Buckeye]

What is the Top Seven's record vs the Bottom Seven? 

[medinabuckeye1]

What is the Top Seven's record vs the Bottom Seven?

So far the only top-7 losses to the bottom-7 are:

• IU at UW
• UNL at PSU

Note that PU, tOSU, MSU, M, and UMD have NOT lost to a bottom-7 team.  

[ELA]

So far the only top-7 losses to the bottom-7 are:

• IU at UW
• UNL at PSU

Note that PU, tOSU, MSU, M, and UMD have NOT lost to a bottom-7 team.  

I actually think the first year we did "tiers" it was just a top 6 and a bottom 6.  Maybe like 2005 or 2006?  Or maybe a top 5 and a bottom 7?  That basically everyone was just winning their home games against the group, and there was such a gap between the groups that there were no crossover wins from the bottom half.  I think we broke it once late, and I seem to recall it being PSU who did so.

[Entropy]

I realize over 30 games and with college kids, you will see bad performances or games where they seem distracted.   UNL has athletes and they are long.   If teams can keep them from driving to the lane, the offense stalls.   If they can attack the basket, they do fine.   My impression is that really is the determining factor between UNL playing well or UNL looking like.. well, UNL in the past.  

In other words, my "lack of trust" has evolved into how UNL matches up in terms of driving to the basket. 

That said, I sense things in Lincoln are good for Miles and the team.   Flirting with the tourney or being on the bubble is success for this program.   I personally believe that flirting with the in or out is the first step and should be the goal for a few years before expecting more.   Like most sports at UNL, you have to walk before you can run. 

[FearlessF]

I'm fine with the Bubble being the goal this season, but next season and going forward getting into the tourney should be the goal

[FearlessF]

was a fun game for the fans, players and for Tim Miles last night

you could tell how much Miles enjoyed it

[medinabuckeye1]

I have an issue in the tier projections.  

Ohio State and Minnesota play tomorrow at MSG in NYC.  That, obviously, is a neutral site.  The problem in the projections is that I have been treating it as a Minnesota home game because Minnesota has eight home games, nine road games, and the Ohio State game at MSG while Ohio State has nine home games, eight road games, and the Minnesota game at MSG.  

This creates a few issues:

• I have it as a projected Minnesota win but since Ohio State is tier-2 while Minnesota is tier-3 and this is a neutral site it really should be a projected Ohio State win.  
• Assuming Ohio State wins tomorrow, I do NOT think that Ohio State should be viewed as getting "credit" for pulling off an upset because beating an inferior team on a neutral court is NOT an upset.  Similarly, assuming Ohio State wins, I do NOT think that Minnesota should be viewed as getting charged with an upset loss because losing to a superior team on a neutral court is NOT an upset.  
• Conversely, if Minnesota wins tomorrow, I think that Ohio State should be viewed as getting charged with an upset loss and Minnesota should be viewed as getting credit for pulling off an upset.  

There is no obvious good way to correct this in the spreadsheet because I start with our double-round-robin projection then back out games not played.  This game IS played, it is just played at an alternative location.  

My plan is to leave the projection spreadsheet as is, but everyone should be aware that if Ohio State wins they will show up as having an "upset" win that isn't really an upset and if Ohio State loses they will NOT show up as having an "upset" loss even though in reality they do.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Seems like a fair way to handle it, @medinabuckeye1 

I would agree that since this is a neutral court, higher tier team should win. 

Good thing it wasn't two teams in the same tier on a neutral court though, as that would have been messy!

[Brutus Buckeye]

Also noteworthy is that OSU and the fraternal MI twins are the only three schools to be in our top-seven for both Helmets and Hoops, whereas Minnesota, Rutgers and Illinois are the only three to achieve dual bottom-seven status.