~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[PortlandSpartan]

Rough one. Thoroughly outplayed and game planned. Couldn't guard in isolation, couldn't get past aggressive on ball defense up top. Surprised by the former, not so much the latter. Slashing is definitely a weakness. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

ESecPN's headline

Michigan State's loss highlights that the Big Ten is a mess -- and boring

[ELA]

I can't really blame them.  It's sort of true.  You establish your conference rep in the preseason, fair or not.  The Big Ten, outside of MSU and Purdue, did so blah in November and December, that now all we have is the single game between the two of them, and ton of games that generate no national interest.  I said as much this week.  MSU could easily be beat, but it wouldn't be in a big game, it would be in an upset.  That narrative got locked in with how the conference did in November and December.

[ohio1317]

Yeah non-conference play this year not doing any favors.  I'll confess, expecting an adjusting OSU, I was not unhappy to see the conference struggle a bit as my expectations of the Buckeyes rose somewhat.  Definitely did not expect tonight. 

All that said, conference is still very much Michigan State's and to a lesser degree Purdue's to lose in my view.  Just glad to be at the top for a bit and see Buckeye basketball showing signs of life.

[Entropy]

Izzo seems to give away a game or two a year.. if no other reason to see what he has and keep the team focused.  JMO

[ELA]

Eh, I think he made some bad choices, but I don't think it was one of those "lesson" games, like leaving Ward on the bench for a whole half against Rutgers.  Or doing weird lineup things in a marquee December game.

I think this is his deepest team, and he's struggling with cutting down the rotation.  When the team is clicking, it's fine.  When they aren't I think it's going to be problematic.  MSU jumps out to an 11-4 lead.  So he brings in a couple walk ons and deep rotation guys at the 16 minute mark of the first half?  MSU lost all momentum when he decided to trot out Naird, McQuaid, Goins and Schilling 4 minutes into the game.  He brought the starters back, and then again went to that deep rotation.  After he did that wholesale lineup change, it was 37-18 OSU for the rest of the half.

When MSU is feeling it, it gives guys rest, when they aren't it's just breaking up their momentum, and prevent the offense from ever getting into a groove.  Usually he's pared the rotation down more by this point, but this year he hasn't, and I'm not sure that's ideal for a March run.  Yesterday may have been a lesson game, but perhaps the lesson was to Izzo, that he may have to make some tough choices when it comes to cutting the minutes of certain guys.

[ELA]

Also, Fran's done after this year right?  Two years ago they were loaded, and gagged it away down the stretch.  Last year was supposed to be a rebuild year, but you expected to see some sort of step up this year, particularly in a down Big Ten.  Instead this might be his worst team in Iowa City.

[JerseyTerrapin]

Also, Fran's done after this year right?  Two years ago they were loaded, and gagged it away down the stretch.  Last year was supposed to be a rebuild year, but you expected to see some sort of step up this year, particularly in a down Big Ten.  Instead this might be his worst team in Iowa City.

Based on his outburst last night, I wonder if he should walk away now before he creates his own health issues.
Iowa definitely did get the short end of the officiating last night, but wow.  I thought he might die or something.

Hang in there, Coach M.!

[Entropy]

all those talented freshman Iowa had last year and so far, in the couple games I've seen them play, I'm not sure they've developed or progressed. 

[mcwterps1]

Based on his outburst last night, I wonder if he should walk away now before he creates his own health issues.
Iowa definitely did get the short end of the officiating last night, but wow.  I thought he might die or something.

Hang in there, Coach M.!

No doubt. 
There were times I swore the whistle would blow, because the Terps were called for less last game, and nothing. 
The only thing they got right, was when Bruno stepped over the player to help up his teammate. 
Bruno wasn't taunting, and the Iowa player pushed his knee back. 
Other than that, I thought Cowan was frustrated and let an elbow fly. He definitely fouled on the play before the ejection. 
I guess the B1G hates Iowa more in basketball than the Terps. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Previous tiers (with +/-)

• MSU -1, PU
• blank
• tOSU +2, UMD, M, PSU -1, MN -2
• NU -1, UW -1
• UNL +2, IU +1, RU, ILL, IA

Upsets so far:

Date	Won	@/v	Lost
2-Dec	tOSU	@	UW
4-Dec	UW	@	PSU
5-Dec	UNL	v	MN
2-Jan	UNL	@	NU
6-Jan	IU	@	MN
7-Jan	tOSU	v	MSU

Typically we consider adjustments when teams are at +/- 2 so that is:

• Ohio State +2:  There are four potential games for which a move up would impact projections.  One of them (vs PU) is not played.  The Buckeyes have won two (@UW, vMSU) and have one to play (@NU).  
• Minnesota -2:  There are five potential games for which a move down would impact projections.  Two of them (@ILL, @RU) are not played.  The Gophers have lost one (@UNL) and have two to play (@IU, @IA).  
• Nebraska +2:  There are five potential games for which a move up would impact projections.  One of them (vtOSU) is not played.  The Cornhuskers have won one (vMN) and have three to play (vPSU, vM, vUMD).  

Either moving Nebraska up or Minnesota down would eliminate the MN@UNL upset.  The other upset for either team will still be an upset even if we make a change.  I think that Ohio State and Nebraska should each move up a tier. New proposed tiers:

• PU, MSU
• Ohio State
• UMD, M, PSU -1, MN -1
• UW +1, UNL, NU -1
• IU +1, RU, ILL, IA

Thoughts?

[ELA]

I agree, although with the suspensions/injuries, I'm not sure Minnesota belongs in Tier 3 anymore.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm not sure about MN either but with Nebraska's promotion they will only be at -1 so we can ride it out for a bit and see.  

The other thing is that I'm not reading too much into their loss to Indiana because the Hoosiers seem like the hardest team to project.  At their best they hung with Dook beat a ranked ND, and won at MN but at their worst they are flat awful.  

[medinabuckeye1]

The updated tiers are (with +/- for upsets):

• MSU, PU
• Ohio State
• UMD, M, PSU -1, MN -1
• UW +1, UNL +1, NU -1
• IU +1, RU, ILL, IA

The upsets so far have been:

Date	Won	@/v	Lost
4-Dec	UW	@	PSU
2-Jan	UNL	@	NU
6-Jan	IU	@	MN

The new projections are:

Team	noAway	noAway	noAway	noAway	noHome	noHome	noHome	noHome	RR-W	RR-L	miss-W	miss-L	Proj-W	Proj-L	RR%	Proj%	Diff	+Var	-Var	Var	Conf-W	Conf-L	OOC-W	OOC-L	ProjT-W	ProjT-L
MSU	M	UNL	PSU	PU	IOWA	MN	NU	tOSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021	0	0	0	17	1	12	1	29	2
Purdue	UNL	NU	tOSU	PSU	ILL	IU	IOWA	MSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021	0	0	0	17	1	11	2	28	3
tOSU	MSU	UMD	UNL	ILL	UW	NU	MN	PU	20	6	6	2	14	4	0.769	0.778	0.009	0	0	0	14	4	9	4	23	8
PSU	M	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	MSU	PU	15	11	3	5	12	6	0.577	0.667	0.090	0	(1)	(1)	11	7	10	3	21	10
UMD	IOWA	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	UNL	tOSU	15	11	6	2	9	9	0.577	0.500	(0.077)	0	0	0	9	9	11	2	20	11
M	ILL	IU	MN	RU	MSU	UNL	PSU	UW	15	11	6	2	9	9	0.577	0.500	(0.077)	0	0	0	9	9	11	2	20	11
Minny	ILL	MSU	tOSU	RU	UMD	M	PSU	UW	15	11	6	2	9	9	0.577	0.500	(0.077)	0	(1)	(1)	8	10	11	2	19	12
NU	ILL	MSU	UNL	tOSU	IU	IOWA	PU	RU	10	16	3	5	7	11	0.385	0.389	0.004	0	(1)	(1)	6	12	9	4	15	16
UW	IU	M	MN	tOSU	IOWA	UMD	PSU	RU	10	16	4	4	6	12	0.385	0.333	(0.051)	1	0	1	7	11	7	6	14	17
UNL	IU	IOWA	UMD	M	MSU	NU	tOSU	PU	10	16	1	7	9	9	0.385	0.500	0.115	1	0	1	10	8	9	4	19	12
RU	IU	IOWA	NU	UW	UMD	M	MN	PSU	6	20	0	8	6	12	0.231	0.333	0.103	0	0	0	6	12	10	3	16	15
ILL	IOWA	UMD	PSU	PU	M	MN	NU	tOSU	6	20	1	7	5	13	0.231	0.278	0.047	0	0	0	5	13	10	3	15	16
IU	UMD	NU	PSU	PU	M	UNL	RU	UW	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)	1	0	1	4	14	7	5	11	19
Iowa	MSU	NU	PU	UW	IL	UMD	UNL	RU	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)	0	0	0	3	15	9	4	12	19