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Topic: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2019, 11:19:37 AM »
Michi87 was saying that Michigan has never lost to a bad team under Harbaugh. I'd also say the OSU game showed how important Devin Bush was to last year's defense. It was a close game until his injury. Some of that was corrected by the time Bush and Rashan sat out versus Florida ... and then on consecutive plays both of their backups got injured and those wheels fell off too. But now I've ventured off track. I was supposed to be talking about losses to bad teams and instead started waving my hands about big losses to good teams.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2019, 12:35:09 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 06, 2019, 11:19:37 AM
Michi87 was saying that Michigan has never lost to a bad team under Harbaugh. I'd also say the OSU game showed how important Devin Bush was to last year's defense. It was a close game until his injury. Some of that was corrected by the time Bush and Rashan sat out versus Florida ... and then on consecutive plays both of their backups got injured and those wheels fell off too. But now I've ventured off track. I was supposed to be talking about losses to bad teams and instead started waving my hands about big losses to good teams.
I think it is fair to say that Michigan hasn't lost to a bad team under Harbaugh.  Maybe he never will.  One thing that Tressel was extremely good at was avoiding losses to bad teams.  Specifically, from 2005-2008 Tressel's tOSU teams lost eight games:
  • Three were to that year's NC (TX in 2005, UF in 2006, and LSU in 2007)
  • Three more were to teams that finished not as NC but with only one loss (PSU in 2005, USC and TX in 2008)
  • One was to a team that finished not as NC but with only two losses (PSU in 2008)
  • One was to a team that won the Big11Ten and finished 9-4 (Illinois in 2007)

For other coaches, losses to inferior teams are a major issue.  Pete Carroll famously lost to some REALLY bad teams during his great run at USC and the last two years Urban Meyer lost once each year to a significantly inferior team at Ohio State.  

All of that said, when Harbaugh first took over at Michigan I don't really think that Michigan was subject to "trap games" because they were coming off of a sub .500 year.  I think of a trap game as a potential loss to an opponent that is easy to overlook.  When you are coming off of a 5-7 year you really have no excuse to overlook any opponent.  

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MrNubbz

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2019, 12:54:37 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 06, 2019, 11:19:37 AM
Michi87 was saying that Michigan has never lost to a bad team under Harbaugh.  I was supposed to be talking about losses to bad teams and instead started waving my hands about big losses to good teams.
Gotcha
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JerseyTerrapin

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2019, 01:12:57 PM »
I've always disliked the term  "trap game" because, if I remember correctly, it was originally used for a game that sneaked up on a team that would likely have won it had they been prepared.  If that's the case, it seems odd to anticipate games which teams should not let themselves be caught off guard for, and then predict that they will be caught off guard for them.

But I suppose the meaning of the term has evolved some since I began ignoring it.  Please accept my preemptive apology in advance for this niggle...

ETA: Ha ha, I've heard some Texas fans refer to last season's opening day loss to Maryland, a game they had then entire off-season to prepare for after losing at home the previous season, as a "trap game."
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847badgerfan

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2019, 01:26:11 PM »
Quote from: JerseyTerrapin on August 06, 2019, 01:12:57 PM
I've always disliked the term  "trap game" because, if I remember correctly, it was originally used for a game that sneaked up on a team that would likely have won it had they been prepared.  If that's the case, it seems odd to anticipate games which teams should not let themselves be caught off guard for, and then predict that they will be caught off guard for them.

But I suppose the meaning of the term has evolved some since I began ignoring it.  Please accept my preemptive apology in advance for this niggle...

ETA: Ha ha, I've heard some Texas fans refer to last season's opening day loss to Maryland, a game they had then entire off-season to prepare for after losing at home the previous season, as a "trap game."
Well sure. Even though they also lost to Maryland the year prior and all that, they were most certainly looking ahead to Tulsa.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2019, 01:28:04 PM »
I view it simply as a game between or perhaps following a major opponent the week before, often a road game against a less talented opponent who is disfavored by 10 points or more.  A team hits an emotional high with a great win over a great team and "reads their press clippings' and cannot maintain the emotions.

We see it all the time, but we also see upsets in "non-trap games" as well.  I don't know if one is more frequent than they other, but it seems like it is.

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JerseyTerrapin

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2019, 01:36:50 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 06, 2019, 01:28:04 PM
I view it simply as a game between or perhaps following a major opponent the week before, often a road game against a less talented opponent who is disfavored by 10 points or more.  A team hits an emotional high with a great win over a great team and "reads their press clippings' and cannot maintain the emotions.

We see it all the time, but we also see upsets in "non-trap games" as well.  I don't know if one is more frequent than they other, but it seems like it is.
I'm probably oversensitive because my Terrapins are always on a lot of "trap game" lists since changing leagues :-) 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #21 on: August 06, 2019, 01:38:26 PM »
Well, probably the ideal "trap game team" is one who is going to be 5-7 to 7-5 in the season playing someone likely to be 11-1.

Rutgers is unlikely to be a trap game for anyone.
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JerseyTerrapin

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2019, 01:42:55 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 05, 2019, 11:13:01 AM
 
Maryland:  The Terps have Temple in between Syracuse and Penn State.  I could see that being a potential trap game. 

  

In all fairness to Temple, they walloped Maryland at Maryland last year.  Not even as close as the 14-35 score.  Maybe it's a trap game for Temple...
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FearlessF

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2019, 02:25:21 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 06, 2019, 01:38:26 PM
Well, probably the ideal "trap game team" is one who is going to be 5-7 to 7-5 in the season playing someone likely to be 11-1.

Rutgers is unlikely to be a trap game for anyone.
unlikely because they are not likely to pull the upset

but, as soon as they pull an upset, BINGO, it was a "trap" game
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ELA

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2019, 03:44:12 PM »
I guess Indiana at home?

They are smack dab in the middle of a stretch that goes ARIZONA STATE, @Northwestern, INDIANA, @Ohio State, @Wisconsin, PENN STATE, ILLINOIS, @Michigan

So coming off ASU-Northwestern, leading into OSU-Wisconsin, that one could get sneaky.  Illinois before Michigan also sticks out, but MSU has a bye between Penn State and Illinois, so that might help, plus Indiana is better.

I also am just now realizing that while MSU for the first time in years doesn't have their bye right at the beginning of the season, but this being a double bye season, getting byes twice in 3 weeks (October 19 and November 2), with just a home game against PSU in between.
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SFBadger96

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #25 on: August 06, 2019, 03:46:55 PM »
The Badgers' trap games are Illinois and Purdue. Easy to see a team come off a big win against MSU and look forward to the big game in Columbus, rather than focusing on lowly Illinois in nondescript Champaign Urbana. Purdue a little less so given the game last year, but after a trip to Nebraska and the week before a chance for redemption at Minnesota, they could take Purdue at home a little too lightly. 

Generally I like the way the Badgers' season shapes up (though I'm unimpressed with the non-conference teams). If they are better than last year, they could make some real noise.
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FearlessF

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Re: Potential "Trap Games" in the B1G in 2019
« Reply #26 on: August 06, 2019, 03:56:06 PM »
the only "potential" trap game for the Huskers would be the Maryland game.  Preceded by the Badger game in Lincoln with the  Hawkeye game following

I say potential because if the Huskers aren't performing as the close to top 25 team most are predicting then it will not be a trap game, it will be just another game they really need to win to try to get bowl eligible.

If the Huskers have 7 or more wins going to Maryland, then it could be a trap.
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