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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1512 on: March 24, 2022, 11:09:08 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on March 24, 2022, 10:54:27 AM
Read my next response.

It's not up to us.

Europe views this as a Europe problem.  Which is what some of us have been begging for all along.

Nobody over there is going to allow another Hitler to stick around.  Pressuring the Russian people via sanctions is the only way to try to enact change, without open war.  And I expect it to continue.

Americans don't understand-- can't possibly understand-- the deep wounds within the European psyche, associated with World Wars on their own soil.

This is precisely why the word "nazi" is still so heavily loaded over there.  And now Russia is viewed across the entire continent as the new nazis, and dickface putin is the new Hitler.  They're not about to let Poland happen again. 
Fair enough--let Europe handle it. 

Of course, they've made themselves dependent on Russian oil/gas, so good luck with that. 

All I'm saying is that the United States shouldn't be pushing for sanctions to continue punishing Russia beyond withdrawal, because our goal is for Russia not to invade sovereign nations. 

I absolutely would engage in a massive propaganda campaign in favor of the Russians getting rid of Putin, but I just wouldn't push sanctions because I think it'll backfire on us. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 24, 2022, 10:57:17 AM
The goal of sanctions is to signal the worlds disapproval of Russia's actions and to give incentive to end the war

It really doesnt matter whether the Russian people blame Putin or anyone else as long as they realize that stopping the war will make the sanctions go away
Exactly my point. Right now we're signaling disapproval of Russia and crippling their economy with sanctions, because they invaded Ukraine. If they withdraw, the signal should end. 

Being an asshole has consequences. Stopping the asshole behavior that led to the consequences should trigger an end to those consequences. 
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longhorn320

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1513 on: March 24, 2022, 11:14:21 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 24, 2022, 11:09:08 AM
Fair enough--let Europe handle it.

Of course, they've made themselves dependent on Russian oil/gas, so good luck with that.

All I'm saying is that the United States shouldn't be pushing for sanctions to continue punishing Russia beyond withdrawal, because our goal is for Russia not to invade sovereign nations.

I absolutely would engage in a massive propaganda campaign in favor of the Russians getting rid of Putin, but I just wouldn't push sanctions because I think it'll backfire on us.
Exactly my point. Right now we're signaling disapproval of Russia and crippling their economy with sanctions, because they invaded Ukraine. If they withdraw, the signal should end.

Being an asshole has consequences. Stopping the asshole behavior that led to the consequences should trigger an end to those consequences.
and when the war ends with Russia coming out on the bad side a smart President would offer both an olive branch and aid to Russia
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1514 on: March 24, 2022, 11:19:26 AM »
Does anyone foresee a likely future where Russia pulls out of Crimea?
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longhorn320

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1515 on: March 24, 2022, 11:23:11 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2022, 11:19:26 AM
Does anyone foresee a likely future where Russia pulls out of Crimea?
not while Putin is around
« Last Edit: March 24, 2022, 12:33:46 PM by longhorn320 »
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1516 on: March 24, 2022, 12:28:48 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on March 24, 2022, 10:49:23 AM
It's not really up to us.  It's up to Ukraine.  And it's up to Europe.

I'm not taking a hard line on removing dickface putin from office (and, preferably, from the face of the earth). 

But I do believe that Europe will.  Like I said, he's widely viewed as Hitler 2.0-- and Ukraine is Poland. 
I think the Hitler stuff is overblown. They really are not that comparable in my mind.

And Europe is so upset, that they continue to this day to buy his oil and gas. I think really only the little tiny insignificant border nations who should've never been allowed to join NATO in the first place are the ones most upset and popping their mouths off. 

Germany, Denmark, Italy - they still buying loads of Russian oil and gas.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1517 on: March 24, 2022, 12:30:20 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 24, 2022, 10:51:26 AM
As Mdot has said, sanctions don't often do a very good job of "forcing" regime change.

And it has the chance to cause the Russians to blame US for their problems rather than Putin. Which I'm sure their state media will continually highlight and propagandize.

I realize everyone wants to punish Russia for invading Ukraine... I certainly do. And we want that punishment to continue to hurt, probably beyond the withdrawal, to deter them from thinking they can do it again there or elsewhere.

But a policy of vengeance is subject to the sunk costs fallacy... It doesn't necessarily help the situation going forward to focus on the hurts of the past.
this is exactly what sanctions do. look no further than Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, North Korea - the public in those countries don't wind up blaming the strongman leader - they wind up blaming the country imposing those sanctions which are crushing them- and all it does is draw them closer into the arms of the dictator for survival. this has been proven time and time again.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1518 on: March 24, 2022, 12:32:13 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2022, 10:56:11 AM
I don't trust Europe to stick to their guns, as it were, when it hurts economically.
this. they are still lining the coffers of Russia by buying their oil and natural gas, today, a month into Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1519 on: March 24, 2022, 12:33:12 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 24, 2022, 10:57:17 AM
The goal of sanctions is to signal the worlds disapproval of Russia's actions and to give incentive to end the war

It really doesnt matter whether the Russian people blame Putin or anyone else as long as they realize that stopping the war will make the sanctions go away
this is my view as well. 
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1520 on: March 24, 2022, 12:49:41 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2022, 11:19:26 AM
Does anyone foresee a likely future where Russia pulls out of Crimea?
not really. That port/naval base is way too important to them.

And Crimea, if we're being honest- is kind of a weird outlier. It was part of Ukraine, but it wasn't really Ukrainian. For about 300 years it was part of the Ottoman Empire, then about another 300 years it was the Russian Empire/Soviet Union (RSFSR). And it wasn't part of Ukraine until a Soviet dictator Nikita Khrushchev - for no obvious or apparent reason- gifted Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic- about 60 years ago when the population of Crimea at the time then was about 80% Russian. It wasn't that big a deal at the time- as technically Russia and Ukraine were one country- the USSR- and they probably never thought USSR would collapse and world would be what it is today. And Crimea to this day was still around 65-70% ethnic Russian and it's spoken as a first language by almost 90% of the population of Crimea when Russia took it in 2014.

IMO, I say don't continue wars over it- let the people of Crimea vote and decide the destiny of Crimea. Bring in the UN, bring in as many outside independent election advisors and supervisors to make sure elections are free and fair- and let the people of Crimea decide what country they wish to be a part of. And if the people decide to go with Russia- recognize it internationally and have Russia pay Ukraine reparations for this war and have Russia pay Ukraine reparations for Crimea as well.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1521 on: March 24, 2022, 02:43:47 PM »
The British embargo on Germany in WW One was effective, pivotal really, one obvious difference.

The US did the same to Japan.  But it required force of course.
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1522 on: March 24, 2022, 04:27:23 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 24, 2022, 12:32:13 PM
this. they are still lining the coffers of Russia by buying their oil and natural gas, today, a month into Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.
We all know they're buying Russian oil and gas and that they can't stop.  That's not some signal that they approve of Russia.  It's a consequence of decades of poor energy policy, coming home to roost, and it's impossible to reverse quickly.  If anything I'd expect it to make them even more ready to reject Russia as swiftly as possible.
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1523 on: March 24, 2022, 04:29:12 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 24, 2022, 12:28:48 PM
I think the Hitler stuff is overblown. They really are not that comparable in my mind.

What's in your mind is completely irrelevant.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1524 on: March 24, 2022, 04:34:33 PM »
I'm going to lay out the most likely "ending", I think, which isn't an end at all.

At some point, both sides agree to a cease fire (which mostly holds).
Then the talk talk talk about withdrawals.
After much talk, Russia agrees to some modest withdrawals, but stays in Donbass, Crimea of course, and around Mariupol.
Then there is more talk, and some minor eruptions of fighting here and there by separatists.
Then they agree to talk some more, with some third party, maybe the Young Turks.
Then Russia threatens to abandon talks, but they talk some more.
Europe decides all this talking is leading nowhere fast, which is true, and decides they need hydrocarbons from Russia.
Five years from now, nothing is really resolved, sanctions have weakened considerably, and life goes on.
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1525 on: March 24, 2022, 04:48:40 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2022, 04:34:33 PM
I'm going to lay out the most likely "ending", I think, which isn't an end at all.

At some point, both sides agree to a cease fire (which mostly holds).
Then the talk talk talk about withdrawals.
After much talk, Russia agrees to some modest withdrawals, but stays in Donbass, Crimea of course, and around Mariupol.
Then there is more talk, and some minor eruptions of fighting here and there by separatists.
Then they agree to talk some more, with some third party, maybe the Young Turks.
Then Russia threatens to abandon talks, but they talk some more.
Europe decides all this talking is leading nowhere fast, which is true, and decides they need hydrocarbons from Russia.
Five years from now, nothing is really resolved, sanctions have weakened considerably, and life goes on.

Bleak.  In your scenario, the only people who benefit, are the arms manufacturers.  I hope you're wrong and a better peace is found.  Only time will tell, of course.

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