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couple of potentially bad signs....imo. Former US ambassador predicting US will soon double the size of it's troops in Europe (there are already around 100k there) and US has imposed a strict media blackout policy regarding the activities of the US military in Poland.


https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1506529830514352129?s=20&t=CxwGPlJn7ne1319g42hoag


https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1506302882701844487?s=20&t=CxwGPlJn7ne1319g42hoag

Another day with basically no news about this.  I see oil prices heading back up which I take as a sign it's going to last a while longer.  This basic stalemate could last years?

Imagine waking up in 2024 and having the situation being basically as it is today.  Is that possible?

Anything is possible. I sure hope that isn't the case, but US was in Afghanistan for 20 years. Don't see why Russia couldn't be in Ukraine for 2. 

But like Max Abrhams says, the regime charge part is the easy part. The insurgency is the hard part. Russia having trouble with the easy part. Which makes me think they won't be there that long.

Putin has achieved his main objectives even if no further ground is taken, it seems to me.  The Donbass region is politically split, with Russian troops there now any insurgency would be hard pressed.  Crimea is fait accompli.  He likely wants Mariupol to join the two on the ground.  He could agree to some short and irrelevant withdrawals and simply take over the land they occupied and have minimal insurgent forces present, a la Crimea.  Maybe they negotiate and "end" to active combat at some point, but to a degree Russia has "won", though at considerable cost.

Of course we are.  The moment we starting supplying arms directly to Ukraine it became a proxy war. 

This was routine in the Cold War.  Israel pre1967 had mostly French and British armaments.  They became a proxy in 1967 and shifted mostly to US armaments.  The IAF is not Mirage jets, it's F-15Is and F-16Is and some internally grown aircraft.

I don't think Russia can withstand two years of these sanctions.  Something like 100,000 employees in Russia already furloughed, and it's only been a few weeks of the sanctions actually being in place.

Good point, but I see nothing Russia could do at this point to gain sanctions relief short of replacing Putin, total withdrawal, and reparations.  At some point, sanctions will leak, and China and India will help them out with oil.  I'm not sure Russia exports much beyond hydrocarbons of any use to anyone, some military stuff.

Good point, but I see nothing Russia could do at this point to gain sanctions relief short of replacing Putin, total withdrawal, and reparations.  At some point, sanctions will leak, and China and India will help them out with oil.  I'm not sure Russia exports much beyond hydrocarbons of any use to anyone, some military stuff.

Right, and that's the problem.  Outside of oil and gas, the world economy doesn't need Russia.  There's no reason to lift the sanctions.  China could provide a relief valve for Russian oil, but at prices so deeply discounted that Russia will effectively become a subjugated vassal state to the Chinese.  Which still doesn't help the Russian people, not even a little bit. 

they are the 2nd largest exporter of arms behind the US. They also export a ton of grain. But that's pretty much it.

I don't believe the sanction relief will be tied to replacing Putin. Those sort of demands would give Putin less incentive to end this war, not more. He'll just raise the stakes and dig in deeper. Would love to believe he could be overthrown from within- but how many times are strongman dictators? Almost never.

"Dig in" on what?  His massive losses in Ukraine?  The absolute destruction of his country's economy?  The rest of the developed world doesn't care about these things, but they do care about the slaughter of babies.

Europe sees him as the new Hitler, and they're not going to let Russia off the hook with Putin in power.  The fact that they are escalating is enough proof, they're done with him.  And the US will follow Europe on the sanctions,  because quite frankly it's no skin off our backs, we don't even trade with Russia in any meaningful way.