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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1148 on: March 15, 2022, 07:34:16 AM »
They'd be a hero to some, not to others, and life would go on.  Folks get upset when every little thing isn't said the way they want it said.

So, how does this all end?  I read one piece that Russia is about to run short of munitions, which is possible I suppose.  No doubt they can draw on other depots more distant from the theater for a while, but that takes rolling stock away from other missions.  I doubt they asked China for "aid", I don't know how that would work, they might have asked for China to buy more stuff.

The most likely end I see involves Ukraine losing territory, disavowing NATO, and getting some kind of security agreement from Putin (worth whatever).  Ukraine would be effectively crippled with a lot of damage and a very weak economy.  Russia could claim something and spin it.

Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1149 on: March 15, 2022, 07:42:16 AM »
They'd be a hero to some, not to others, and life would go on.  Folks get upset when every little thing isn't said the way they want it said.

So, how does this all end?  I read one piece that Russia is about to run short of munitions, which is possible I suppose.  No doubt they can draw on other depots more distant from the theater for a while, but that takes rolling stock away from other missions.  I doubt they asked China for "aid", I don't know how that would work, they might have asked for China to buy more stuff.

The most likely end I see involves Ukraine losing territory, disavowing NATO, and getting some kind of security agreement from Putin (worth whatever).  Ukraine would be effectively crippled with a lot of damage and a very weak economy.  Russia could claim something and spin it.
I think you are right on all fronts. 

Zelenskyy has already floated/signaled he's willing to abandon the push for NATO. 

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1150 on: March 15, 2022, 08:30:00 AM »
From 2019:

Why care about Ukraine and the Budapest Memorandum (brookings.edu)

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the United States, Russia, and Britain committed “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “to refrain from the threat or use of force” against the country. Those assurances played a key role in persuading the Ukrainian government in Kyiv to give up what amounted to the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, consisting of some 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads.

The apparent fact none of the scattered nukes ended up in very bad hands is rather remarkable, to me.  To respect the independence of Ukraine meant respecting their wishes to join NATO, water over the dam.


Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1151 on: March 15, 2022, 08:46:31 AM »
WTI has dropped under $96 this morning already.  That is a large drop over the past week or so, it crested $130 briefly.  Traders must be thinking this is not as big a deal as feared.  Or perhaps it is COVID fears again?


Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1152 on: March 15, 2022, 09:27:14 AM »
MUNITIONS - Thermobaric Munitions and their Medical Effects! - JMVH

Thennobaric munitions are those weapons that are designed to produce  enhanced temperature and pressure compared to conventional explosives and are often referred  to as fuel-air  explosives  (FAEs).  They produce a much greater  incidence of primary blast injury than  conventional explosives and  this is their main mechanism of injury


Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1153 on: March 15, 2022, 09:36:49 AM »
War in Ukraine live updates: Russian airstrikes pound Kyiv as European leaders visit | NPR

A Russian woman who burst onto the set of a live TV news broadcast to protest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is under arrest and is the subject of “a pre-investigation check,” according to state-run Tass media.
The woman, Marina Ovsyannikova, is an editor at Channel One; she protested the war by walking behind a news anchor while holding a sign reading “No War” and telling viewers they were being lied to. It also said, “Russians for peace.”
The website OVD-info, which monitors rights abuses in Russia, shared a video Ovsyannikova recorded a video before taking action. In it, she said she was ashamed for her role in helping spread Kremlin propaganda.
“I’m embarrassed for letting them tell lies from the TV screen. I'm ashamed that I allowed them to zombify Russian people,” Ovsyannikova said, according to a translation by OVD-info.
Ukrainians were never Russia’s enemies, she said, stating that her father is Ukrainian and her mother is Russian. She urged more people to protest the invasion.
“What’s happening in Ukraine right now is a true crime. And Russia is the aggressor,” she said. “And the responsibility for this crime lies only on the conscience of one person, and that person is Vladimir Putin.”
Ovsyannikova’s protest was quickly hailed as an act of courage, as it immediately led to her arrest.
Russia’s federal Investigative Committee is now handling her case; any charges against her could stem from Russia's newly adopted laws making it a crime to spread what the Russian government deems "fake news" about its military.
Ovsyannikova’s whereabouts are in question: The website Meduza said she was located at the TV station, but defense lawyers were not allowed to see her. But the OVD-info site says her current location isn't known.



Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1154 on: March 15, 2022, 09:37:21 AM »
The phrase "a preinvestigation check" sounds quite Orwellian to me.  We've always been at war with Ukraine.

Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1155 on: March 15, 2022, 10:10:43 AM »
MUNITIONS - Thermobaric Munitions and their Medical Effects! - JMVH

Thennobaric munitions are those weapons that are designed to produce  enhanced temperature and pressure compared to conventional explosives and are often referred  to as fuel-air  explosives  (FAEs).  They produce a much greater  incidence of primary blast injury than  conventional explosives and  this is their main mechanism of injury
what’s worse, thermobaric munitions or depleted uranium ones?

Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1156 on: March 15, 2022, 10:14:04 AM »
WTI has dropped under $96 this morning already.  That is a large drop over the past week or so, it crested $130 briefly.  Traders must be thinking this is not as big a deal as feared.  Or perhaps it is COVID fears again?
Could be. Could also be it’s a sign that only the US is going to ban Russian oil. I don’t think any other nation has decided to do so. EU, South Korea, and Japan still buying Russian oil. 

US headlines may have cause reactions and fears and panic those may be cooling off now. 

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1157 on: March 15, 2022, 10:33:47 AM »
Australia to join US and UK in banning Russian oil imports | Australia news | The Guardian

A move of this sort can be the result of a short squeeze.

The Russian oil is still going to find markets.  Most of Europe has few good options.  I'd guess Norway hasn't banned it because they don't need it.


utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1158 on: March 15, 2022, 10:36:32 AM »
what’s worse, thermobaric munitions or depleted uranium ones?

Relatively speaking, neither is "worse" when used for its intended purpose in a military vs. military engagement.

But thermobaric weapons can be used-- and are being used-- for the wholesale slaughter of civilians.  This is something that almost every nation on earth considers to be barbaric and unacceptable.

Depleted uranium weapons are designed specifically to pierce military armor, and would be a waste if used on soft civilian targets.  

So really, there's not any reason to compare the two.




Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1159 on: March 15, 2022, 10:38:09 AM »
UK has phased out, not banned. They’ll still be buying until next year. I think UK and US account for 1.2-1.3% each of total Russian oil exports. Australia isn’t even at 1%, it’s less. 

Australia has a population barely above Florida, and they aren’t a serious buyer of Russian oil.

UK is a phase out and Australia not buying isn’t going to make a dent at all. 

That’s a good thing for gas prices if it holds to just these 3.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1160 on: March 15, 2022, 10:43:39 AM »
NETWORK ROUNDUP: EU split on Russian oil and gas ban – EURACTIV.com

I suspect there is a realization that this war is going to drag on for a while with not much appearing to happen, and folks will "negotiate", and life elsewhere will be largely unaffected.  One can hope anyway.  The media tend to get hysterical about possibilities, and then those dampen out if/when reality seems to be less breathless.

I'm sure a lot of companies that use a lot of oil have bought futures contracts and are insulated for a while.  Airlines often do this, at times they get burned.


Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1161 on: March 15, 2022, 10:56:52 AM »
I'd opine FAEs, the thermobarics, have a much greater initial "impact" and effect, residual depleted uranium shells could have a longer term lingering impact.  As noted, the former can be used against civilians and civilian infrastructure.  The latter is pretty much only useful against military armored vehicles.

Volatility remains, as investors continue to monitor geopolitical headlines with the Russia/Ukraine conflict in its third week. Hopes of a diplomatic resolution have increased, as the two countries are set to meet for the second straight day today. Prior to this week's meetings, officials on both sides were upbeat over the weekend about the upcoming talks. So far, negotiations have ended without any progress on a ceasefire, and reports of Russia intensifying its invasion have dominated the news. The U.S. and other global allies have levied crippling financial sanctions, including an unprecedented move to handcuff the country's central bank, and the U.S. and U.K. have banned the imports of Russian energy. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting looms on the week's horizon, with uncertainty of how aggressive the central bank will be in what is expected to be the initiation of a tightening campaign, as the conflict in eastern Europe has added a new variable to the equation.

The bond market has been just as volatile, with Treasury prices taking a break today from a five-session fall that saw yields rise and pare the rally seen in early March. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains elevated, along with gold, although both are paring back this morning, and crude oil prices are tumbling for the second-straight day, pulling back from a surge last week to highs not seen since 2008.

 

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