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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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MrNubbz

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1078 on: March 14, 2022, 08:05:00 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 14, 2022, 07:46:04 AM
In a rational sense, he's in must-win mode now right? They are already being sanctioned, so the biggest danger to him personally is if he loses this war. They must pursue it and get some sizable gains to make the endeavor worth it.
You don't have to sound like an advisor,he just may be reading
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1079 on: March 14, 2022, 08:06:38 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 14, 2022, 08:05:00 AM
You don't have to sound like an advisor,he just may be reading
Don't be absurd, he has People for that.
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1080 on: March 14, 2022, 08:11:13 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 14, 2022, 08:05:00 AM
You don't have to sound like an advisor,he just may be reading
Maybe MDot is Putin. Would explain his Michigan fandom
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1081 on: March 14, 2022, 08:14:12 AM »
Could Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine? (cnbc.com)

While the West has been united in its condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the U.K. describing Putin’s regime as “barbaric,” just how far the U.S. and its NATO allies are willing to go to support Ukraine, and stop Russia, is a moot point. NATO has repeatedly ruled out any kind of military support, such as a no-fly zone pleaded for by Ukraine, that could lead it into a direct confrontation with nuclear power Russia.
But Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said in an interview Sunday that the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine by Russia could change the West’s calculus over the conflict.
“Of course, everybody hopes that he would not dare do that but ... if he uses any weapons of mass destruction then this will be a game changer in the whole thing,” he told the BBC’s Sophie Raworth Sunday, adding that NATO would have to “think seriously what to do because then it starts to be dangerous not only for Europe … but the whole world.”


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MrNubbz

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1082 on: March 14, 2022, 08:17:25 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 14, 2022, 08:11:13 AM
Maybe MDot is Putin. Would explain his Michigan fandom
That's is a dirty,lowdown.vile,accurate thing to say
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MrNubbz

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1083 on: March 14, 2022, 08:26:25 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2022, 07:57:55 AM
Merkel’s “big failure” was not reversing those economic links and energy projects in the wake of Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, said Daniela Schwarzer, executive director for Europe and Eurasia at the Open Society Foundations think tank.
Monday morning QBing,perhaps, but had this not happen then critics would be harping they could have had access to cheap,available energy  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1084 on: March 14, 2022, 09:18:29 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 14, 2022, 08:26:25 AM
Monday morning QBing,perhaps, but had this not happen then critics would be harping they could have had access to cheap,available energy ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It is, it's what happens with a longer term view.  Germany really boxed itself in with its "green energy" policies, supported by Putins donations.    There were voices at the time urging another direction of course.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1085 on: March 14, 2022, 09:19:34 AM »
So, IF Russia used chemical munitions (I doubt they will), and NATO says it will respond even harder, what can that mean?

All options are on the table?  What an overused term.
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Temp430

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1086 on: March 14, 2022, 09:45:44 AM »
The US and NATO are allowed to change their mind and do so without announcing it to Putin in advance.  The current administration's doctrine that Russia can invade any non-NATO nation with the only sanctions as repercussions is pretty chickenshit.  Putin has the people running things over here afraid of their shadow.
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1087 on: March 14, 2022, 09:47:46 AM »
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1088 on: March 14, 2022, 09:50:04 AM »
Quote from: Temp430 on March 14, 2022, 09:45:44 AM
The US and NATO are allowed to change their mind and do so without announcing it to Putin in advance.  The current administration's doctrine that Russia can invade any non-NATO nation with the only sanctions as repercussions is pretty chickenshit.  Putin has the people running things over here afraid of their shadow.
When you have a chance to spend billions and lose thousands and potentially millions of lives for a border dispute on the other side of the world, I say you have to do it.
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GopherRock

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1089 on: March 14, 2022, 10:07:47 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2022, 07:49:48 AM
IMHO, he's lost no matter what, I don't see how he can get sizeable gains at this point.  I can't envision any future where this is a win at all.  He certainly needs a "gain" he can spin as a win, no doubt, no Nazis in Ukraine, and perhaps recognition of Crimea and Donbass.  But it is a lot of expense and effort to recover two relatively minor pieces of land.  Is that sufficient for him to spin?  Maybe, internally.
The only way Putin had any chance at succeeding (and I don't think anyone knows what his version of "succeed" was) was by 1st round knockout. Instead, he's trying to put down a united, motivated, and well-armed insurgency in an area the size of Texas with a shorthanded army that gets more shorthanded every day and can barely eat, move, or be resupplied.  And he's getting his ass kicked in the information war. Any stooge government the Kremlin tries to install won't last 12 hours.

On top of that, he's been working for 20 years to seed cracks in the Western alliance (WEurope's reliance on Russian fossil fuels, Brexit, Donald Trump, etc.). He has shanked all of that away in the first 3 days, all the while ensuring that his own economy is blown to pieces. NATO and the EU are in as firm a shape as ever. 

The Chinese position right now can be best summarized by this: they're bargain hunting.

Larry Bond (Tom Clancy's collaborator on Red Storm RisingTom Clancy's collaborator on Red Storm Rising) wrote a book called Red Phoenix about a mythical invasion of South Korea by the North Koreans in the mid-80s. A solid read, and I see this ending in a very similar manner.
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MrNubbz

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1090 on: March 14, 2022, 10:23:27 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2022, 09:18:29 AM
It is, it's what happens with a longer term view.  Germany really boxed itself in with its "green energy" policies, supported by Putins donations.    There were voices at the time urging another direction of course.
Why would Putin donate to "green energy" policies when he's trying to sell them oil?
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1091 on: March 14, 2022, 10:29:49 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 14, 2022, 10:23:27 AM
Why would Putin donate to "green energy" policies when he's trying to sell them oil?

Because he was backing the German Green Party's war against nuclear, in order to increase German dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Yes, it sounds completely nonsensical, and yet it worked perfectly...

(...until he screwed it all up with this invasion...)

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