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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #966 on: March 11, 2022, 10:36:16 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 10:26:48 AM
Russia is getting hammered economically, and the regular people feel it, no matter the propaganda they get served.  They know.

Sanctions won't come off until Russia pulls back from ALL of Ukraine, they might get some cheating, and maybe some of the worst would come off in steps.  But even if they take Ukraine, they lost, badly, both a lot of miliary gear, respect, money, economically, the whole smear.

Even the Green groups in Germany will stop taking their money, maybe.
not sure that's the case. people getting crushed by sanctions typically blame the country crushing them by sanctions and look to dear leader for survival. 

Russia has been screaming for 15+ years this was a red-line. Nobody ever listed. The people in Russia view Ukraine very differently than the people in the US. They view Ukraine as existential- it's a matter of life and death for them. Ukraine means literally nothing to US. Means everything to Russia. 
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #967 on: March 11, 2022, 10:39:24 AM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 11, 2022, 08:58:16 AM
For anyone interested in the economic impact of current situation:
yeah, so that's bad. and 100% proof as to why sanctions this draconian, kicking the entire country off Swift and banning Russian oil from US were a god awful idea.

sanction the oligarchs, seize all their property and toys in the west. have at it. don't disrupt global energy markets or crush regular people with sanctions.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #968 on: March 11, 2022, 10:50:01 AM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 11, 2022, 10:39:24 AM
yeah, so that's bad. and 100% proof as to why sanctions this draconian, kicking the entire country off Swift and banning Russian oil from US were a god awful idea.

sanction the oligarchs, seize all their property and toys in the west. have at it. don't disrupt global energy markets or crush regular people with sanctions.
Thanks for actually looking at it.  And Zande is probably overly optimistic about the US impact.  
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #969 on: March 11, 2022, 11:04:01 AM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 11, 2022, 10:50:01 AM
Thanks for actually looking at it.  And Zande is probably overly optimistic about the US impact. 
Yeah, one quarter of negative GDP, and only in the most pessimistic scenario... 

I feel that the direct impact of the Russia situation may not be, on its own, enough to cause a US recession. But it certainly seems like the US economy is balancing on the head of a pin right now, particularly with interest rates so low in the face of inflationary pressures...

Interest rates go up; cost of borrowing [and servicing debt] goes up, housing market crashes, and brings a hell of a lot more down with it.

I worry the Russia situation, which might not be enough on its own to hurt us, pushes us over the tipping point.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #970 on: March 11, 2022, 11:35:51 AM »
This notion Russia is justified in invading Ukraine is, to me, rather fantastical.  The implication Russians will blame the US is the same.  They know what's happened.  
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #971 on: March 11, 2022, 11:57:34 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 11:35:51 AM
This notion Russia is justified in invading Ukraine is, to me, rather fantastical.  The implication Russians will blame the US is the same.  They know what's happened. 
I don't think Mdot is saying they're justified. 

As I said earlier in this thread defending someone on the other side...

Explaining the root causes why an action occurred doesn't mean that you condone that action as moral or justified. 

Mdot is saying that given what the West was doing, Russia invading Ukraine was predictable, not that it was justified. 

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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #972 on: March 11, 2022, 12:01:20 PM »
He's CONSTANTLY blaming US actions, CONSTANTLY, and to me, that is justification, or a rather simplistic and incorrect effort to say "Well, Russia was worried about Ukraine, so they invaded."  I can't take it any other way.  I might as well listen to a Putin SPOX.

Ukraine was zero threat to Russia, zero.  
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #973 on: March 11, 2022, 12:08:17 PM »
The United States has a pretty big track record of getting its hands on everything and threatening military action if we don't get our way. This is going to affect how other countries act.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #974 on: March 11, 2022, 12:13:03 PM »
What the US does previously is immaterial to any justification of this invasion.  This was wrong, and I'm delighted we're hammering the Russian economy.
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847badgerfan

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #975 on: March 11, 2022, 12:15:30 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 12:01:20 PM
He's CONSTANTLY blaming US actions, CONSTANTLY, and to me, that is justification, or a rather simplistic and incorrect effort to say "Well, Russia was worried about Ukraine, so they invaded."  I can't take it any other way.  I might as well listen to a Putin SPOX.

Ukraine was zero threat to Russia, zero. 

I agree. To me, this is all about Putin convincing himself that Ukraine was going to join the EU, and also NATO.

I'm not convinced that was going to happen - particularly the latter part.

And, why would the EU want another financial liability, to go along with places like Greece and the Eastern bloc countries? I don't get the logic here. I saw today that the president of Lithuania wants EU membership for Ukraine. What's not clear is if he discussed it with his peers in Brussels.
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #976 on: March 11, 2022, 12:17:57 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 11, 2022, 12:08:17 PM
The United States has a pretty big track record of getting its hands on everything and threatening military action if we don't get our way. This is going to affect how other countries act.
Russia has a pretty big track record of invading and murdering its neighboring countries, and that's got a whole lot more to do with their war of aggression in Ukraine than anything else.

The proof is in the pudding, and Ukraine has been proven 100% correct in their desperate desire to join NATO and the EU and any other body they feel might offer some measure of protection against Russia's murderous ways. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #977 on: March 11, 2022, 12:19:16 PM »
Mainly I'm tired of reading the same old thing over and over.  Putin is getting old and I think he wants to resurrect the USSR to the extent possible.  Ukraine wasn't anywhere near to joining NATO.  It's a complete bit of propagandistic twaddle, worth of Goebbels.

Poland really did attack Germany first in 1939, ya know?
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longhorn320

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #978 on: March 11, 2022, 12:20:10 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 11, 2022, 12:08:17 PM
The United States has a pretty big track record of getting its hands on everything and threatening military action if we don't get our way. This is going to affect how other countries act.
Tie that to the Ukraine invasion

Hitler had all kinds of "justified" reasons to attack Poland which also poised no threat to Germany at all

Sanctions need to get the attention of the common citizens in order to be affective

Its better then the alternative which would be a downer for the common citizen
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #979 on: March 11, 2022, 12:21:00 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2022, 12:15:30 PM
I agree. To me, this is all about Putin convincing himself that Ukraine was going to join the EU, and also NATO.

I'm not convinced that was going to happen - particularly the latter part.

Whether it was likely to happen or not, Russia's current slaughter of Ukrainians is all the proof necessary to show that Ukraine was correct and justified in their desire to attempt to get some additional protection from their murderous neighbor.
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