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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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847badgerfan

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #952 on: March 11, 2022, 09:05:03 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 09:01:57 AM
Russia has set itself back many decades with all of this mess.  It's astounding really, I don't see how Putin can survive, even knowing he's KGB.
As I said long above, Russia is now North Korea.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #953 on: March 11, 2022, 09:05:33 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 09:01:57 AM
Russia has set itself back many decades with all of this mess.  It's astounding really, I don't see how Putin can survive, even knowing he's KGB.
Maybe so, but they are also setting the fragile geopolitical world back, and the global economy in a way such that catastrophic and unpredictable behavior is more and more likely. 

see my attachment above from Moodys analytics.  
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #954 on: March 11, 2022, 09:08:58 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 09:01:57 AM
Russia has set itself back many decades with all of this mess.  It's astounding really, I don't see how Putin can survive, even knowing he's KGB.

There's no way the West will remove sanctions while Putin is still alive/in-office.

He has ended his career and most likely his life with this crazy decision.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #955 on: March 11, 2022, 09:09:49 AM »
What to watch today: Futures jump on hopes of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks (cnbc.com)

Shortly before 6:30 a.m. ET, Reuters sent a brief bulletin quoting Russian President Vladimir Putin saying there are “certain positive developments” in the talks. As investors try to gauge the veracity of Putin’s reported comments, Russia widened its military offensive in Ukraine on Friday. (CNBC & AP)

New satellite images appear to show that a large Russian convoy approaching Kyiv has been redeployed to towns and forests outside the city, potentially signaling a renewed push to bear down on the Ukrainian capital. (CNBC)

As of Thursday’s lower close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were all heading for another losing week. West Texas Intermediate crude, the American oil benchmark, was tracking to snap a two-week winning streak. (CNBC & AP)


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CatsbyAZ

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #956 on: March 11, 2022, 09:47:34 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on March 09, 2022, 11:26:16 AM
@CatsbyAZ

Potential recession and grain shortages are good topics.  In some cases they're related to Russia's war in Ukraine, but they're better topics for another thread.  They just open the door to too much other non-related stuff and there are some posters here who struggle mightily with staying on topic.

I won't delete your post but anyone that would like to pursue it further, please do it elsewhere.

There's already a global economics discussion occurring on the News thread, this conversation would fit in well over there.

No worries. Here’s two threads over on Area 51 discussing famines and wheat:

https://www.cfb51.com/area-51/high-oil-prices-and-war-in-ukraine-is-only-the-beginning-of-sorrows/

https://www.cfb51.com/area-51/afghanistan-on-brink-of-mass-starvation/14/

Going back to the war, below is linked a knowledgeable video analysis of Russia’s frustrated logistics across Ukraine:

“…behind the scenes, what made this massive domestic mobilization of troops, weapons, and supplies possible was Russia’s vast rail network. This rail network’s extent, earning its status as third largest in the world, is a byproduct of the country’s size, sparsity, and the suspect nature of its road network. Meanwhile, the degree of state control, with the government owning some 20,000 of the country’s 21,000 locomotives, is a legacy of the Soviet era. This control and extensiveness combined means that Russia’s military is able to rely heavily on the rail network…Trains set the stage.”

“However, despite Russia’s well-planned war infrastructure constructed around Ukraine, things inside the warzone were seemingly going less to plan…Kyiv was the grand prize for the invading force, and yet they only made it to the city’s suburbs…they met fierce resistance and made little progress – the night that many feared would mark the capital’s fall into but a night.”

“Russian tanks were running out of fuel and left abandoned…the invading troops were seen looting stores for food, potentially due to a lack of their own…across the board, as they approached the urban areas that could only be taken with the most tactful coordination, the Russian military was looking disorganized and disconnected.”

“The Ukrainian defense included a recognition of what the Russian offense seemingly missed: the importance of logistics...Ukraine went for Russia’s logistics. On social-media platforms adapted to organize the country’s guerilla-style defense, posts circulated stressing the value of destroying fuel trucks. Of course, if you stop the fuel trucks, you stop the tanks, and unlike tanks, fuel trucks are typically unarmored and can be destroyed with cheap, accessible bullets or Molotov cocktails. When the Russians started disguising their fuel trucks to look like more traditional transport trucks, posts and messages quickly followed making the updated target profile clear.”

“However, this domestic advantage, this reliance on the rails, represents an Achilles heel when conflicts take place beyond their borders. When war stretches past their furthest railyards, Russian military logistics capabilities are, at best, mediocre. In the case of this invasion, the primary advanced railyards being used are in Belarus and Russia itself, so for any further supply lines, especially any stretching into Ukraine, Russia had to resort to trucks. And simply put: Russia doesn’t have enough trucks.”

“A highly-active conflict reliant on rocket fire, which accurately describes this war, is even more resource-intensive on the logistics support forces as each individual rocket requires a dedicated truck for transport to the launcher. With the frequency of artillery fire in the early days of the invasion, a large chunk of Russia’s material-technical support brigade’s capability was certainly tied up in supplying ammunition to launch-sites.”

“Analysis suggests that when invading, Russia’s forces can operate largely self-sufficiently, without logistics support, for about three to five days. So, when the conflict did not conclude within that timeframe, the Russians found themselves scrambling to regroup and resupply.”


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #957 on: March 11, 2022, 10:00:34 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2022, 09:05:03 AM
As I said long above, Russia is now North Korea.
no, they aren't. they have way more deliverable nuclear weapons and way more natural resources than North Korea.

NK has less than 50 nukes. Russia has 6,000+. Does NK even have legit provable ICBMs? I know they've tested some, but do they actually have the capability to use them like Russia? 

Tension and conflict with Russia is way more dangerous than tension/conflict with NK. 
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #958 on: March 11, 2022, 10:01:13 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 09:01:57 AM
Russia has set itself back many decades with all of this mess.  It's astounding really, I don't see how Putin can survive, even knowing he's KGB.
Yeah, except for the fact that he's more popular in Russia right now than he was pre-invasion. 

We view things a little bit differently here than the people in Russia view things.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #959 on: March 11, 2022, 10:03:07 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on March 11, 2022, 09:08:58 AM
There's no way the West will remove sanctions while Putin is still alive/in-office.

He has ended his career and most likely his life with this crazy decision.
I don't think they'll keep the sanctions forever. If an end to the war is negotiated, my guess is those sanctions will be removed. 

He's actually more popular now in Russia than he was before the invasion. He's survived many assasination attempts. My guess here is he's got to be more paranoid than ever right now and his security is heightened to level 11 out of 10. 
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #960 on: March 11, 2022, 10:12:18 AM »
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #961 on: March 11, 2022, 10:14:28 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on March 11, 2022, 08:59:27 AM
Not unexpected.  Putin had been moving to nationalize many commercial ventures well before this invasion.

Unless/until Russia becomes a true democracy, Western businesses really have no choice but to stay away.

And after coming so far in the last 30 years, I don't think anyone would have predicted a return to a Soviet-style command economy, and especially not that it would happen almost overnight, but here we are...


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1502092455788826657?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1502092455788826657%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FKyivIndependent%2Fstatus%2F1502092455788826657%3Fs%3D2026t%3DRfdmjHLNBmapvYzjQWpf2A
Russia really came very far in the last 15-20 years, all under Putin. After the fall of USSR in 1991 and all through the Yeltsin years, Russia was an unmitigated disaster on the brink of being a failed state. 

Probably the only reason that Putin had been able to get a stranglehold death grip on power in Russia- is because he did a lot better job than his mostly drunk and mostly stooge of the Clinton administration predecessor in turning things around and stabilizing a country that was on the brink of collapse.
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847badgerfan

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #962 on: March 11, 2022, 10:26:18 AM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 11, 2022, 10:00:34 AM
no, they aren't. they have way more deliverable nuclear weapons and way more natural resources than North Korea.

NK has less than 50 nukes. Russia has 6,000+. Does NK even have legit provable ICBMs? I know they've tested some, but do they actually have the capability to use them like Russia?

Tension and conflict with Russia is way more dangerous than tension/conflict with NK.
I meant from the standpoint of being a pariah.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #963 on: March 11, 2022, 10:26:48 AM »
Russia is getting hammered economically, and the regular people feel it, no matter the propaganda they get served.  They know.

Sanctions won't come off until Russia pulls back from ALL of Ukraine, they might get some cheating, and maybe some of the worst would come off in steps.  But even if they take Ukraine, they lost, badly, both a lot of miliary gear, respect, money, economically, the whole smear.

Even the Green groups in Germany will stop taking their money, maybe.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #964 on: March 11, 2022, 10:30:50 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 10:26:48 AM
Russia is getting hammered economically, and the regular people feel it, no matter the propaganda they get served.  They know.

Sanctions won't come off until Russia pulls back from ALL of Ukraine, they might get some cheating, and maybe some of the worst would come off in steps.  But even if they take Ukraine, they lost, badly, both a lot of miliary gear, respect, money, economically, the whole smear.

Even the Green groups in Germany will stop taking their money, maybe.
Yes.  And so is the rest of the world.  You may not be seeing it yet.  You will.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #965 on: March 11, 2022, 10:33:56 AM »
Oh, I see it, I've been selling the past two weeks.

Our cruise itinerary is reset, they dropped Helsinki as well as St. Pete and are refunding 20%.  We get Kiel, another night in Stockholm, and a visit to Visby, Sweden, which looks interesting.  I was looking forward to Finland.  They also added Gdansk.
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