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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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longhorn320

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #798 on: March 07, 2022, 12:55:42 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2022, 12:45:48 PM
I think Russia finally prevails in Ukraine, and sticks their government in place.  It will be a festering sore, but it won't be joining NATO/EU and that Quiskling government will agree to loss of Crimea et al. and probably more.
I think Russia could have achieved that with much less of the crap they have now

and dont just assume Russia would win an insurgency war as was shown when they tried to take over Afghanistan

they are not very good at that kind of war
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #799 on: March 07, 2022, 01:01:05 PM »
As I posted before, Putin is in a lose-lose situation, even winning is losing.  He would have been way better off not invading.
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MrNubbz

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #800 on: March 07, 2022, 01:16:00 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 07, 2022, 12:55:42 PM
I think Russia could have achieved that with much less of the crap they have now

and dont just assume Russia would win an insurgency war as was shown when they tried to take over Afghanistan

they are not very good at that kind of war
You may be right but are the Ukranians prepared to live a hand to mouth existence like the Afghans who are use to that type of living.Hopefully it doesn't sink to that
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MrNubbz

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #801 on: March 07, 2022, 01:18:54 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2022, 01:01:05 PM
As I posted before, Putin is in a lose-lose situation, even winning is losing.  He would have been way better off not invading.
He's what 70 and just may not give a shit
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #802 on: March 07, 2022, 01:21:09 PM »
Possibilities:

1.  Russia finally "wins" and puts its government in charge.  The people are surly and angry but not broadly resistant.
2.  Above, but the people largely do resist and commit partisan acts.
3.  Stalemate, Russia can "win" but they don't leave either.  Fait accompli.
4.  Russia agrees to cease fire and pulls back forces to some extent in return for some concessions.
5.  Ukraine manages to eject Russian forces, I don't find this plausible.
6.  Putin goes down and we have some blend of 4 and 5.

My guess is a hybrid between 1 and 2.
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #803 on: March 07, 2022, 01:36:22 PM »

"Between 1 and 2" I think it'll really depend on how many civilians dickface Putin chooses to murder through overt acts of violence, and starvation.  If it's in the millions, then eventually I could see the fight going out of the Ukrainian defenders.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #804 on: March 07, 2022, 01:40:22 PM »
Think Syria, today, whatever is going on there probably.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #805 on: March 07, 2022, 01:41:34 PM »
even if he installs a puppet gov't, he'll have to deal with an insurgency that lasts forever until Russia just ups and leaves. 

Seems to me like the only way you can actually hold a country and reshape it to your will without having an insurgency is to completely destroy it like the allies did with Germany and Japan in WW2 and just crush the will of the people.
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longhorn320

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #806 on: March 07, 2022, 01:45:40 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2022, 01:21:09 PM
Possibilities:

1.  Russia finally "wins" and puts its government in charge.  The people are surly and angry but not broadly resistant.
2.  Above, but the people largely do resist and commit partisan acts.
3.  Stalemate, Russia can "win" but they don't leave either.  Fait accompli.
4.  Russia agrees to cease fire and pulls back forces to some extent in return for some concessions.
5.  Ukraine manages to eject Russian forces, I don't find this plausible.
6.  Putin goes down and we have some blend of 4 and 5.

My guess is a hybrid between 1 and 2.
If Ukraine continues to receive support from other countries Im thinking it will be either 4 or 6
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longhorn320

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #807 on: March 07, 2022, 01:51:00 PM »
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan lasted 10 years

During this time Russia had 15,000 casualties and lost over 300 helicopters and over 100 jets
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #808 on: March 07, 2022, 03:46:23 PM »
Analysis: Vladimir Putin's clumsy military campaign in southern Ukraine makes little sense - CNN
Analysis: Vladimir Putin's clumsy military campaign in southern Ukraine makes little sense - CNN

I found this interesting (and yes, it's CNN, but I think they do have some good correspondents mostly overseas).

The guy is perplexed by what the Russians are doing, and he's there apparently.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #809 on: March 07, 2022, 04:09:43 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2022, 03:46:23 PM
The guy is perplexed by what the Russians are doing, and he's there apparently.
I think the Russian soldiers are perplexed, too.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #810 on: March 07, 2022, 04:11:53 PM »
Maybe everyone is perplexed, I know I am.  I wonder if the field commanders are as unmotivated as the troops.  They get orders to go in and most know it's a very very dumb idea, so they slavishly just follow orders with no variation or creativity or response to the situation on the ground.  Dunno.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #811 on: March 07, 2022, 05:16:28 PM »
the belle of the DC right-wing ball Miss Lindsey Graham herself is a bit catty I do declare, doubling down on calls to assassinate Putin. Like, I get the sentiment and all that, but probably not a great idea when an active US Senator keeps calling for this and we're trying to deescalate tensions, not ramp them up to level 11.
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