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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #630 on: March 04, 2022, 09:02:58 AM »
I figure whoever follows Putin would have a basis for ending this war as best he can manage.

He would at least pretend to be a nice guy for a while to get sanctions lifted.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #631 on: March 04, 2022, 09:03:24 AM »
As many have noted, a NATO no fly zone would mean war directly with Russia.

CatsbyAZ

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #632 on: March 04, 2022, 10:20:50 AM »
My drive-by perplexities of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine:

1. That convoy heading into Kyiv that's stalled going on 4 to 5 days now? "Food and Fuel" shortages, as reported, don't add up because this is a RESUPPLY convoy that was fully readied in Belarus about 100 miles north of Kyiv. By its very purpose it shouldn't be out of fuel, especially after its short trip from Belarus.

Guesses? My brother, an Arizona National Guard Vet with infantry experience in Afghanistan, believes it's a problem of disorganization among their officer ranks. I, on the other hand, wonder if the convoy is sitting there waiting until Russia can attain Air Superiority over Kyiv, which is another point of confusion among the experts. Which leads me to my next point...


2. Why isn't Russia making more of an effort for Air Superiority?

Guesses: They could have it if they wanted, and I wonder if they are holding back to temper demand for a No-Fly zone as would be enforced by NATO. From chatter amongst online Russian military experts, Russia’s centralized command and control abilities are highly disorganized; their Army, Air Force, & Navy don’t communicate with each other and don't like each other. One theory speculates that Russia hasn’t tried to established air superiority because they are afraid that their ground forces will fire on their own planes and in turn their Air Forces will end up bombing their own ground troops.


3. Why hasn't Ukraine's internet been shut off by its Russian owned service providers?

Answer from the Guardian: “Ukraine has a diverse internet infrastructure with few choke points – which means it’s difficult to switch off the country and there’s no centralised kill switch,” said Alp Toker of the monitoring organisation NetBlocks. If an invading nation desired to switch off Ukraine’s internet, this would really be a matter of physically entering internet exchange points and data centres and taking over that infrastructure. And it certainly can’t be done remotely by severing a connection with, say, Russia.”

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/could-russia-shut-down-the-internet-in-ukraine)



4. Why did western nations recant on promises to provide fighter jets?

Guess: Are fighter jets just too valuable for EU to give up should this get a lot worse and drew in NATO?


https://twitter.com/incontextmedia/status/1499305727453769730

utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #633 on: March 04, 2022, 10:29:03 AM »
One major problem with NATO fighter jets is that Ukrainian pilots can't fly them.  They only know older Russian jets.  Most NATO countries use more modern Western jets.  And even countries like Poland that still have some older Russian jets on-hand, would have to rip out the comms and some of the controls and replace them with the Ukrainian versions.  Which really just isn't realistic.

In order to get NATO jets into Ukraine, you'd have to use NATO pilots.  Which of course, is the big no-no right now.

And definitely on the internet infrastructure-- only totalitarian states like Russia and China have the capability to turn off or limit the internet within their borders, because they've designed it that way on purpose.


Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #634 on: March 04, 2022, 12:32:56 PM »

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #635 on: March 04, 2022, 12:33:31 PM »

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #636 on: March 04, 2022, 12:33:53 PM »

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #637 on: March 04, 2022, 12:34:25 PM »

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #638 on: March 04, 2022, 12:44:18 PM »
Ukraine-climate nexus | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com)

Michael Schellenberger has written a hard-hitting article entitled How the West’s Green Delusions Empowered Putin.  Excerpts:
<begin quote>

How is it possible that European countries, Germany especially, allowed themselves to become so dependent on an authoritarian country over the 30 years since the end of the Cold War? 

Here’s how: These countries are in the grips of a delusional ideology that makes them incapable of understanding the hard realities of energy production. Green ideology insists we don’t need nuclear and that we don’t need fracking. It insists that it’s just a matter of will and money to switch to all-renewables—and fast. It insists that we need “degrowth” of the economy, and that we face looming human “extinction.

While Putin expanded Russia’s oil production, expanded natural gas production, and then doubled nuclear energy production to allow more exports of its precious gas, Europe, led by Germany, shut down its nuclear power plants, closed gas fields, and refused to develop more through advanced methods like fracking. 

The numbers tell the story best. In 2016, 30 percent of the natural gas consumed by the European Union came from Russia. In 2018, that figure jumped to 40 percent. By 2020, it was nearly 44 percent, and by early 2021, it was nearly 47 percent. 



Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #639 on: March 04, 2022, 01:20:01 PM »
Yeah, Germany really screwed itself by being so reliant on one county for its energy needs and by basically banning nuclear energy. No country should rely so heavily on just one country for anything. And nuclear power is the renewable energy the entire world should be investing in, not shuttering. Trump called Germany and EU out for this to their faces many times, including in NATO meetings. But I suspect that is only because he wanted them to buy more American arms and to pay premiums for American LNG. The morons in his DOE like Ricky Perry were hilariously trying to sell US LNG as “freedom gas” to Germany. How ridiculous can you be? FREEDOM GAS!!

But I’m not sure I buy the part about being dependent on an authoritarian regime for energy really matters in the scheme of things - they changed their laws- needed needed energy- so they’ll go to the lowest cost/high volume producer. It’s just what nations do- they deal in best self-interests, that’s it. US has been dependent on a regime for exactly same reasons (what’s best for ME) and for exactly same thing and for maintaining US world hegemony for decades in relying on and even worse partnering with Saudi Arabia- a regime that makes Putin’s look like a puppy dog in comparison. 

Russia was always going to go nuts over the Ukraine/NATO issue. Nothing that Germany did would’ve changed that except for force NATO to revoke Ukraine’s open ended invitation. Russia had built a pipeline with Germany that just cost $11 billion that they had to know they were going to lose for sure if they took this course of action- and they did it anyway. If EU wasn’t buying all that oil & gas, someone else would’ve. And even if Russia’s oil & gas sales weren’t as high in the EU as they’ve been they still would have a much larger population, military, and economy than Ukraine - they’d still have the numbers & military superiority advantage.

longhorn320

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #640 on: March 04, 2022, 02:02:48 PM »
Yeah, Germany really screwed itself by being so reliant on one county for its energy needs and by basically banning nuclear energy. No country should rely so heavily on just one country for anything. And nuclear power is the renewable energy the entire world should be investing in, not shuttering. Trump called Germany and EU out for this to their faces many times, including in NATO meetings. But I suspect that is only because he wanted them to buy more American arms and to pay premiums for American LNG. The morons in his DOE like Ricky Perry were hilariously trying to sell US LNG as “freedom gas” to Germany. How ridiculous can you be? FREEDOM GAS!!

Once again you show your dislike for Trump by calling his actions here just taken for self gain with no actual facts to support your statement and yes independence from Russia oil would be freedom


But I’m not sure I buy the part about being dependent on an authoritarian regime for energy really matters in the scheme of things - they changed their laws- needed needed energy- so they’ll go to the lowest cost/high volume producer. It’s just what nations do- they deal in best self-interests, that’s it. US has been dependent on a regime for exactly same reasons (what’s best for ME) and for exactly same thing and for maintaining US world hegemony for decades in relying on and even worse partnering with Saudi Arabia- a regime that makes Putin’s look like a puppy dog in comparison.

Trump had led the US to be independent of Saudi Arabia for oil production but Biden put a stop to that

Russia was always going to go nuts over the Ukraine/NATO issue. Nothing that Germany did would’ve changed that except for force NATO to revoke Ukraine’s open ended invitation. Russia had built a pipeline with Germany that just cost $11 billion that they had to know they were going to lose for sure if they took this course of action- and they did it anyway. If EU wasn’t buying all that oil & gas, someone else would’ve. And even if Russia’s oil & gas sales weren’t as high in the EU as they’ve been they still would have a much larger population, military, and economy than Ukraine - they’d still have the numbers & military superiority advantage.

This is proving to be hard for Russia to achieve with the current bank sanctions in place


Not sure what your message here is.  US bad and Russia will win???


They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #641 on: March 04, 2022, 02:09:26 PM »

utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #642 on: March 04, 2022, 02:24:30 PM »
[img width=499.988 height=202.998]https://i.imgur.com/LSIEBbj.png[/img]

Yeah I just heard that the White House is considering banning all imports of Russian oil.

rolltidefan

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #643 on: March 04, 2022, 02:35:44 PM »
Trump had led the US to be independent pf Saudi Arabia for oil production but Biden put a stop to that

(note, i had to quote another of your posts and replace the text because it wouldn't let me quote the one with this in it for some reason. that's why date/time stamp are wrong)
this isn't really true. the us started weening off saudi oil under obama, but did not keep up trend. trump did drop them more, and more significantly. but biden has, so far, kept it at roughly same (technically lower, but only slightly) than trump levels. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSSA1&f=M
annual barrels of oil, in thousands


opec oil imports also started to decrease under obama, and more so overall than just saudi alone. and it kept a downward trend throughout his tenure as well. trump saw a slight bump first 2 years in office, but then brought it back down to or slightly below when he took over. biden has, so far, continued this trend. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMXX1&f=M

over all imports follow a similar trend as the opec data. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUS1&f=M

 

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