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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #210 on: March 01, 2022, 01:34:31 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:20:37 PM
An ABM can't be somehow "retooled" to make an offensive weapon.  The notion is silly, we have intermediate range ballistic missiles that we can build and deploy as needed, no need to somehow jury rig an ABM.  An ABM is designed with short range and very fast acceleration for obvious reasons.  The rocket motor is specific for that purpose.  And of course the warhead is designed to intercept an incoming unarmored missile, some are designed to try and hit a bullet with a bullet.
ABMs don't really work that well.

And the MK 41 launchers installed in Poland and Romania, can be retooled to launch offensive weapons. 

from NY Times...

Missile defense has long been viewed by Russia as a dangerous American attempt to degrade the main guarantor of its great power status — a vast nuclear arsenal. The possibility that the United States could shoot down Russian ballistic missiles undermines the deterrent doctrine of mutually assured destruction, which posits that neither of the two biggest nuclear powers would ever risk a nuclear war because it would mean both get annihilated.

During the Cold War, Russia and the United States both worked on developing antimissile defenses, but agreed in 1972 to abandon their rocket shield programs so as to preserve mutual vulnerability and, they hoped, peace.

“In addition, the site lacks the software, the hardware and infrastructure needed to launch offensive missiles,” NATO said.


Some independent experts, however, believe that while requiring a rejiggering of software and other changes, the MK 41 launchers installed in Poland and Romania can fire not only defensive interceptors but also offensive missiles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_41_Vertical_Launching_System

MK 41 is just a launching system....seems to me it can be tooled to launch missiles that hit targets and explode too...
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Temp430

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #211 on: March 01, 2022, 01:35:33 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:20:37 PM
An ABM can't be somehow "retooled" to make an offensive weapon.  The notion is silly, we have intermediate range ballistic missiles that we can build and deploy as needed, no need to somehow jury rig an ABM.  An ABM is designed with short range and very fast acceleration for obvious reasons.  The rocket motor is specific for that purpose.  And of course the warhead is designed to intercept an incoming unarmored missile, some are designed to try and hit a bullet with a bullet.
I think the Russian's primary bitch is that the ABMs could be used against their nuclear deterrent.  Which isn't the case, unless they launch their missiles near Iran.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #212 on: March 01, 2022, 01:39:24 PM »
Quote from: Temp430 on March 01, 2022, 01:35:33 PM
I think the Russian's primary bitch is that the ABMs could be used against their nuclear deterrent.  Which isn't the case, unless they launch their missiles near Iran.
probably biggest gripe is that in theory is that ABMs eliminate MAD. But the MK 41 launchers in Poland and Romania could be retooled to launch offensive missiles. Pretty easily.

Dirty little secret of course is that ABMs do not work all that well.

Seems to me Bush II should've never ripped up that treaty in 2002. All it's done is create a new arms race and escalate tensions.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #213 on: March 01, 2022, 01:41:24 PM »
Quote from: Temp430 on March 01, 2022, 01:35:33 PM
I think the Russian's primary bitch is that the ABMs could be used against their nuclear deterrent.  Which isn't the case, unless they launch their missiles near Iran.
It is their beef, and they could intercept incoming Russian missiles, but not many of them.  ABMs are in principle destabilizing, IF they actually work well enough.

This is why we had an ABM Treaty long ago limiting deployments, but I think both sides realized they didn't work very well.  We have some now on ships that are reasonably effective against some types of incoming.  The Israelis have "Iron Dome" which works fairly well against short range missiles.

The Vice President usually is not present for a SOTU message.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #214 on: March 01, 2022, 01:46:58 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:41:24 PM
This is why we had an ABM Treaty long ago limiting deployments, but I think both sides realized they didn't work very well.  We have some now on ships that are reasonably effective against some types of incoming.  The Israelis have "Iron Dome" which works fairly well against short range missiles.
it's true that ABM's don't work very well, but both sides did not rip up the treaty, one side did. And since ripping up that treaty one side has dumped who knows how many billions into trying to build advanced ABM systems. And all it's done is lead to military buildups and escalated tensions.

As far as the ABMs MK 41 launchers in Poland and Romania, did little bit more reading on this- turns out all they'd need to launch offensive missiles are software and hardware updates to the launching systems. So I think Russia's concerns there are probably valid, as is their reluctance to accept the US's standard operating "just trust us" line.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #215 on: March 01, 2022, 01:48:31 PM »
They would need different rocket motors, different warheads, and different software, so, yeah.

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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #216 on: March 01, 2022, 01:53:40 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:48:31 PM
They would need different rocket motors, different warheads, and different software, so, yeah.
yeah, but the launching systems are already there....which means they could theoretically be upgraded at any time. so Russia being very suspicious of that and refusing to just take the US's word of "just trust us, these are defensive, they'll never be offensive" - I mean I can see why they wouldn't just accept that at face value. I mean, I can't say I blame them. I think it's a legitimate gripe.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #217 on: March 01, 2022, 01:58:03 PM »
RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 - Wikipedia

This is the actual missile being deployed as "Aegis Ashore" in Europe and Japan.  They are kinetic energy kill missiles with no warhead.

Converting this to some ground based IrBM would be absurd.  They are mostly used to protect the Fleet.

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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #218 on: March 01, 2022, 02:11:37 PM »
What a Russian soldier's text home says about Ukraine's information war (taskandpurpose.com)
What a Russian soldier's text home says about Ukraine's information war (taskandpurpose.com)

Could be authentic, or not of course.

According to the translation at the UN, the soldier’s mother asked if he was in training exercises and why it had been so long since he’d responded. When the soldier said he wasn’t in Crimea, his mother asked where he was. “Mom,” the soldier allegedly texted back. “I’m in Ukraine.” 

“There is a real war raging here. I am afraid,” the soldier’s text said, according to the UN translation. “We are bombing all of the cities, together. Even targeting civilians. We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass. They call us fascists, Mama, this is so hard.”
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utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #219 on: March 01, 2022, 02:41:51 PM »
This thread is about current events related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Content not related will be deleted.  Thanks in advance.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2022, 02:46:59 PM by utee94 »
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #220 on: March 01, 2022, 02:57:56 PM »
op-ed written by a professor in the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies at The Citadel - pretty remarkable read.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-02-25/ukraine-cia-insurgents-russia-invasion
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #221 on: March 01, 2022, 03:18:34 PM »

Not sure Mexico not putting sanctions on Russia really matters at this point, when virtually the entire West already has. I do agree with the guy though that the push to censorship of Russian state-sponsored media, probably not a good idea. If you're supposedly free and open democracies with freedom of the press - then censorship is something you should be against, not for.


https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1498752705791205379?s=20&t=DokJptRiID-6OKzKJ9bcbg
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Benthere2

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #222 on: March 01, 2022, 03:40:52 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 11:42:23 AM
not sure on a tv show, but there was a pretty good movie where bunch of North Koreans I think took the white house and captured the president. Gerard Butler from 300 movie was in it. Forgetting the name. They made a bunch of sequels after that weren't any good, but the first one was pretty well done.

Air Force with Harrison Ford probably my all-time favorite- President gets captured by terrorist movie.
Designated Survivor
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #223 on: March 01, 2022, 03:44:39 PM »
Olympus Has Fallen - Wikipedia


The long Russian convoy appears to have stalled, for reasons unclear.
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