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Topic: The Ukraine Topic

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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #182 on: March 01, 2022, 09:18:02 AM »
I think folks here view reportage os such events with a jaundiced eye, if there is such a thing.  Or liver, whatever.

We know ahead of time that early reporting from war zones is rife with error, mistakes, propaganda, etc.

A wise man believes half of what he hears, a genius knows which half.

utee94

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #183 on: March 01, 2022, 09:21:04 AM »
I think folks here view reportage os such events with a jaundiced eye, if there is such a thing.  Or liver, whatever.

We know ahead of time that early reporting from war zones is rife with error, mistakes, propaganda, etc.

A wise man believes half of what he hears, a genius knows which half.
Absolutely.

At the same time, this is the first war where smart phones and social media have been present in such force, and we're getting real-time views of what's happening in numerous regions simultaneously.

Some will be garbage, some will be evidence.  It's fascinating and horrifying to watch it play out in real time.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #184 on: March 01, 2022, 09:22:42 AM »
Photography was a new thing in the US Civil War (it was used in the Crimean war as well).  The images were horrifying back then to the people, it brought it home, though many of the photographs were completely staged.

It's very hard to imagine the conditions of that war, most of the deaths were due to disease.


Temp430

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #186 on: March 01, 2022, 10:31:47 AM »
I wonder if they'll try sticking nukes in Cuba again or maybe Venezuela.  I seem to remember hints to that effect from the Kremlin recently.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #187 on: March 01, 2022, 10:39:15 AM »
I wonder if they'll try sticking nukes in Cuba again or maybe Venezuela.  I seem to remember hints to that effect from the Kremlin recently.
That would avail them minimally with today's technology.  My fear used to be they sneak a missile boat to a few hundred miles of DC and launch supersonic cruise missiles at the WH and decapitate our leadership.  Any first strike would be directed primarily at command and control.

847badgerfan

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #188 on: March 01, 2022, 10:41:45 AM »
That would avail them minimally with today's technology.  My fear used to be they sneak a missile boat to a few hundred miles of DC and launch supersonic cruise missiles at the WH and decapitate our leadership.  Any first strike would be directed primarily at command and control.
I think if they wanted to decimate our leadership, they'd have to hit the State Department and Pentagon.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #189 on: March 01, 2022, 11:03:47 AM »
Sure, a decent sized nuke on the WH would pretty much take out most of that, and they would launch several missiles of course, and hit Andrews AFB.


Benthere2

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #190 on: March 01, 2022, 11:32:27 AM »
That would avail them minimally with today's technology.  My fear used to be they sneak a missile boat to a few hundred miles of DC and launch supersonic cruise missiles at the WH and decapitate our leadership.  Any first strike would be directed primarily at command and control.
wasnt there a tv show about this exact thing?

Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #191 on: March 01, 2022, 11:40:47 AM »
I wonder if they'll try sticking nukes in Cuba again or maybe Venezuela.  I seem to remember hints to that effect from the Kremlin recently.
come to think of it, if he wanted to stop NATO expansion to his borders, forming a hostile military alliance with Cuba and Venezuela and putting nukes in their borders might've been his best bet to do just that. There is no doubt the US would freak the f**k out over this and try to negotiate to remove those nukes and dissolve said alliance. US does NOT like it when they get a taste of their own medicine. And US was never going to just stop NATO expansion or meddling in the affairs of Ukraine and picking it off from Russia's sphere of influence and bringing it into the US's- unless something caused them to. In case people haven't noticed, the US does whatever the f**k it wants on the worlds stage, regardless of what any other countries concerns or objections are.

More I think about this, the more I think this is probably the exact outcome that US planners at the highest level wanted. If you wanted to push Russia out of Europe, ostracize them and ensure US hegemony of Europe and get rid of a Russia that was gaining influence via EU energy dependence, well you couldn't have done a better job over the last decade or so needling them and then ask for a better outcome. Finland and Sweden are now talking about possibly joining NATO. Every NATO country is now stating their intentions to get serious on defense spending. 11 (including the US) were at the 2% of GDP  threshold, while most were around 1.4 to 1.5% with a 3-4 being pathetically low. Germany has stated it's intention to get serious on defense spending effectively immediately. Germany has also stated it's intention to build LNG infrastructure and import more LNG. US happens to be the power in NATO. US happens to be the worlds largest exporter of weapons in the entire world. US also happens to be the worlds largest exporter of LNG in the entire world. 

I feel terrible for the people of Ukraine and what's going on. Putin badly misjudged and miscalculated the entire situation. Think it's pretty clear that this was not rational, at all. It's not rational imo- bc they do not view Ukraine rationally as a meaningless pawn on the chessboard like the US does- they view Ukraine as existential to their existence- they view having it in their orbit/sphere of influence, having it as a buffer state to the West and ensuring it's never part of NATO as part of their vital national security interests- and it's not just Putin that has that view- many in the Russian government have that view. Putin has been talking about NATO expansion/Ukraine since the early 2000s, probably most notably at his speech in Munich in 2007. And thanks to WikiLeaks we have troves of leaked classified US state department cables all the way back from 2006 in which US ambassadors and diplomats on the ground have said the same thing- and they predicted back then exactly what happened in 2014 and what is happening right now.

The US played it's naive client government in Kyiv like a fiddle. Dangled NATO membership that they were never going to give them over there head, flooded them with lethal arms and encouraged them to get tough with Russia instead of try to make peace- knowing full well if sh*t hit the fan- we weren't going to actually get involved. Mearsheimer called it 7 years ago- he said the US was leading Ukraine on a path to get wrecked by their much stronger neighbor- and that the US isn't going to ever allow them into NATO which would give them an Article V defense guarantee and that the US wasn't going to send in troops or implement a no fly zone or declare war on Russia if Russia decided to invade Ukraine. Guy was a prophet. No one listened to him. 

Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #192 on: March 01, 2022, 11:42:23 AM »
wasnt there a tv show about this exact thing?
not sure on a tv show, but there was a pretty good movie where bunch of North Koreans I think took the white house and captured the president. Gerard Butler from 300 movie was in it. Forgetting the name. They made a bunch of sequels after that weren't any good, but the first one was pretty well done.

Air Force with Harrison Ford probably my all-time favorite- President gets captured by terrorist movie.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2022, 11:50:42 AM by Mdot21 »

Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #193 on: March 01, 2022, 11:50:13 AM »
That would avail them minimally with today's technology.  
what do you mean by this? 

I know missile defense systems are basically worthless vs ICBM's. Unless there has been rapid acceleration in the technology over the last couple years that I'm not aware of, but haven't been paying too much attention. Not sure how they fare vs other types of ballistic missiles. 

Temp430

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #194 on: March 01, 2022, 11:51:41 AM »
Russian state media is telling residents of Kyiv to leave their homes to avoid impending attacks.  Not sure where a couple million people could go or if NATO will stand by and let the Russians reduce the city to rubble.  Putin may get his wider war.
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Mdot21

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Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #195 on: March 01, 2022, 12:23:08 PM »
Russian state media is telling residents of Kyiv to leave their homes to avoid impending attacks.  Not sure where a couple million people could go or if NATO will stand by and let the Russians reduce the city to rubble.  Putin may get his wider war.
NATO/US is not getting involved here. Biden thankfully has been very firm and resounding of that the past 24-48 hours. He's strongly said he's committed to US staying out. The risks of WWIII breaking out and nuclear escalation are far too great if US gets involved. I've been a critic of Biden's, but if we can end this tragedy/crisis/mess - and do it without US getting involved and WWIII starting- he'll have won me over simply by the fact that would mean he had a hand in preserving the species. WWIII goes live and nuclear exchanges happen- life and the world as we know it is done. It would be apocalypse. Yeah, no thanks.

Unfortunately they will have to do what every people do in war....run, get out, best they can. It's just another evil part of war and one of the many things that make war so disgusting, awful, terrible, there are no adjectives.

US helped create millions of refugees in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan. You hardly ever heard anyone giving a flying f**k about any of them. I find it odd that now that it's white European people being attacked, suddenly war is condemned and lives matter to the Western world. Why isn't it always so?

It's super sad situation, but yeah....not willing to go start WWIII which would dramatically increase the risks of nuclear exchange- over it. No one should be willing to do that. Only an insane person would be willing to go that route.

 

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